Best and worst countries on COVID-19 response (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 11:44:45 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  International General Discussion (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Best and worst countries on COVID-19 response (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Best and worst countries on COVID-19 response  (Read 31169 times)
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« on: March 26, 2020, 07:51:13 AM »

I think ROK and ROC also did a pretty good job as well
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2020, 09:16:44 AM »
« Edited: March 28, 2020, 09:54:58 AM by jaichind »

Part of this should be the economic performance.  I looked over the current 2020 GDP projections from various financial firms as of the last couple of days (so the info takes into account latest information) and took the average of those projections by economy.  I did this for the larger economies in the world

USA               -2.1%
Eurozone       -4.2%
PRC                3.3%
Japan            -2.7%
UK                -2.9%
India              (not enough data)
Brazil             0.3%
Canada         -1.6%
ROK               0.4%
Russia           -0.5%
Australia        -1.5%
Mexico          -1.9%
Indonesia       2.6%
Turkey           1.7%
Saudi Arabia   (not enough data)
Switzerland   -1.6%
ROC               0.9%
Argentina      -2.5%
Sweden        -2.4%
Poland           0.0%
Thailand       -1.8%

Russia I suspect will mostly have its economic impact being fairly minimal.   Saudi Arabia will be hit hard due to the oil price war.  India is a big unknown.  Modi shut the country down for 21 days which will hit the informal sector hard.  India GDP figures tend to be more biased in favor of the formal sector so as long as the 21 day shut down the economy can re-open I suspect the India impact will be fairly small with the informal sector hit more impacting next year's economic growth due to another hit on rural consumption.  

Edit: A bunch of Russia GDP projections came in.  All in all they come out to an average of -0.5%. Also added Argentina, Sweden Poland, and Thailand
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2020, 09:34:02 AM »

The trend of warmer economies doing better (India, Brazil, Indonesia) seems quite clear. Sort of does play into the narrative that the virus spreads quicker in colder environments which is why Eurozone is taking such a hard hit.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2020, 04:38:18 PM »
« Edited: March 28, 2020, 09:16:59 PM by jaichind »

 
It'll be more informative with revisions, that is pre-Corona vs now projections, but I'm too lazy. IMF will eventually publish theirs. I'll wait.


Good point.  I can take the Feb 2020 average GDP projections from financial firms to compare.  That might underestimate the PRC impact since by Feb 2020 it was clear that the virus will have a large impact on 2020 PRC growth but is a good benchmark to compare for other economies.

                    March 2020      Feb 2020
USA               -2.1%               1.8%
Eurozone       -4.2%               1.0%
PRC                3.3%               5.5%
Japan            -2.7%               0.5%
UK                -2.9%               1.0%
India              (not enough data)
Brazil             0.3%               2.2%
Canada         -1.6%               1.5%
ROK               0.4%               2.2%
Russia           -0.5%               1.8%
Australia        -1.5%              2.1%
Mexico          -1.9%               0.9%
Indonesia       2.6%               5.1%
Turkey           1.7%               2.8%
Saudi Arabia   (not enough data)
Switzerland   -1.6%              1.2%
ROC               0.9%              2.3%
Argentina      -2.5%             -1.6%
Sweden        -2.4%               1.1%
Poland           0.0%               3.3%
Thailand       -1.8%               2.9%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2020, 03:03:28 PM »

Judging by recent scenes of masses of migrant workers having to flee back to their home villages or face starvation, I think Modi's response has been, as with everything with him, utterly horrifying.

Could be.  But politically it has been a great success for Modi and will consolidate his regime further.

http://www.jankibaat.com/complete-lockdown-has-made-people-more-serious-and-aware-about-covid-19-jan-ki-baat-state-of-nation-survey/16912/

Jan Ki Baat poll shows huge support for Modi regime measures to deal with virus

Approval of government response at 81%


95% support Modi 21 day lockdown


46% think the virus is a PRC conspiracy


only 4% think there will be no impact on economy


The main weakness of Modi-BJP since the 2019 LS landslide has been the weak economy.  Now this virus not only consolidates support for the regime but also allows Modi to blame an external virus for any economic problems.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #5 on: March 30, 2020, 03:49:24 PM »

Modi's response definitely ranks among the bottom of countries. But it does seem popular for now. ...and perhaps even if more die of his actions than would have died from covid-19 (latest number I saw was that 29 died from COV-19 and 22 died probably due to the migration). It is truly shocking to see the Trumpification of the Indian electorate (half think its an intentional Chinese plot???).

Interestingly, his equally poorly thought out demonetization plan a few years back was generally panned, I believe because it mostly affected the middle class. Now that he has another hare-brained solution to another real problem, except affecting the migrant poor more, it is praised.


Demonetization was a disaster for low income daily wage laborers and I was convinced it would be a political disaster for Modi.  But instead it was a great political boon for Modi.  The reason, it seems to me, is the image of collective action that Modi asked Indians to support to attack corruption.  The fact that the execution was a disaster and it never achieved the goals was irreverent since the electorate felt that Modi led them on a collective campaign to attack corruption and consolidated around his leadership.  This virus responds of a not well thought out 21 day lockdown seems to be working the same way as it created large amount of economic pain for the poor daily wage belabors but most of them will continue to support Modi.

Something similar is taking place in PRC.  It is clear that the Hubei authorities bungled the initial response and I am certain many will get their just deserts when this is all said and down.  But he PRC mobilization to what seems like a successful defeat of a virus that they themselves bungled in the first place to become out of control will only seem to consolidate the CCP regime.  The CCP image took and beating in Hubei and I am sure that will not change, out outside Hubei the prestige and support for CCP is higher than ever.       
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2020, 05:23:16 AM »

That figure in India for "its all a Chinese conspiracy" - depressing.

I do not think the poll is worded correctly.  If a large number of Indians feel that PRC bugling led the disease to spread a lot greater than it should they are presented with "honest mistake" and "conspiracy" I can see how a large number of people would pick the latter.  If the choices had been "honest mistake". "criminal incompetence", or "conspiracy" I think a large number of people that choose "conspiracy" would pick "criminal incompetence".
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2020, 04:07:06 PM »

A overseas Chinese media outlet quotes a joint Gallup-NR (Japanese pollster) cross national poll from a Japanese source



Satisfaction with you government response.  Top countries are

Austria        88%
India           83%
Palestine     80% (Huh I assume this is Palestinian administration in West Bank)
Poland        79%
Azerbaijan  77%
Malaysia     77%
ROK           74%
Armenia     73%
Italy           72%
Indonesia   72%


Bottom countries are
Russia        49%
UK             49%
Serbia        48%
Germany    47%
Iraq           46%
Ecuador      44%
USA           42%
Japan         23%
Thailand     20%


Another question asked is: Are you willing to give up some of your rights to beat back the virus


Top few countries are
Austria                 95%
North Macedonia   94%
Italy                     93%
Poland                  91%

Bottom couple of countries
USA                     45%
Japan                   32%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2020, 06:57:56 AM »


Bottom countries are
Russia        49%
UK             49%
Serbia        48%
Germany    47%
Iraq           46%
Ecuador      44%
USA           42%
Japan         23%
Thailand     20%

Did they poll Chile? Local polls have approval of president's handling of the crisis at 28%

Sorry.  Chile was not on the list
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2020, 06:40:19 AM »

Now that all the GDP projections from various financial houses are in for end of April I can produce an updated chart of 2020 average GDP projections when compared Fed 2020 average GDP projections for 2020.

                April 2020       Feb 2020
World          -3.1%              3.1%
USA            -4.8%              1.8%
Eurozone     -6.5%              1.0%
PRC              1.8%              5.5%
Japan          -3.9%              0.5%
UK              -5.9%              1.0%
India            0.4%              5.7%
Brazil          -2.9%              2.2%
Canada        -5.3%             1.5%
ROK            -0.4%              2.2%
Russia         -3.7%              1.8%
Australia      -3.5%              2.1%
Mexico         -5.3%             0.9%
Indonesia      1.8%             5.0%
Turkey         -2.1%             2.8%
Saudi Arabia-2.7%             2.3%
Switzerland  -3.7%             1.2%
ROC             0.1%              2.3%
Argentina    -5.1%             -1.6%
Sweden       -3.9%             1.1%
Poland         -3.1%             3.3%
Thailand      -4.2%             2.0%
Norway       -3.6%             1.8%
Philippines    0.8%             6.2%
Nigeria        -1.8%             2.3%
Vietnam       2.6%             6.7%

The volume of projection data for World, India, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Vietnam are a bit on the thin side.  I suspect given the oil price collapse the growth figures for Saudi Arabia and Nigeria will head down more from here.  The India drop surprises me as the India lockdown should have hit the informal sector more which are usually not picked up as much in official GDP figures.

The economies that will see the smallest drop relative to Feb 2020 projections would be ROC followed by ROK.  On the whole "colder" and more advanced economies are getting hit more.  The large Thailand fall seems to indicate their dependency on tourism was large than I would have expected.

The only economies that will see any real growth this year would be PRC (first in first out), Indonesia and Vietnam.  Indonesia and Vietnam has the advantage of being in warmer areas where the speed of the virus spread is reduced.  Indonesia also have the advantage of being a fairly large economy and less dependent on exports despite some dependency on the oil prices.

I am surprised that Sweden would see such a large reduction given their strategy of not locking down. I guess their export market in Eurozone which got hammered badly would obviously hit them.  Ditto for Mexico where if American catches a cold Mexico gets pneumonia so even without a large scale lockdown Mexico growth will be hit hard.  Mexico at least had the best oil price hedge setup of all the big oil producers and earned a bundle when oil prices crashed which mitigated some of the fiscal impact.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2020, 08:08:48 PM »

End of May means I get to update my 2020 GDP growth projections (weight average of the projections of various financial houses) versus what they where in Feb 2020.

               May 2020          Feb 2020
World            -3.1%*             3.1%
USA              -5.9%               1.8%
Eurozone       -8.1%               1.0%
PRC               1.4%               5.5%
Japan           -4.6%               0.5%
UK               -7.9%               1.0%
India            -2.5%**           5.7%
Brazil            -5.2%              2.2%
Canada         -7.0%               1.5%
ROK             -0.6%               2.2%
Russia          -4.2%               1.8%
Australia       -4.1%               2.1%
Mexico          -7.2%               0.9%
Indonesia       0.0%               5.0%
Turkey          -3.7%               2.8%
Saudi Arabia -3.8%*              2.3%
Switzerland   -4.9%               1.2%
ROC              -0.2%               2.3%
Argentina      -6.3%              -1.6%
Sweden         -4.8%               1.1%
Poland          -3.6%                3.3%
Thailand        -5.7%               2.0%
Norway         -4.9%               1.8%
Philippines     -2.1%               6.2%
Nigeria          -2.5%*             2.3%
Vietnam          1.3%*             6.7%
Israel             -1.9%              3.0%
South Africa   -6.3%               0.8%
Malaysia        -3.2%               4.0%
Columbia       -3.2%               3.2%
Romania        -5.0%               3.2%
Hungary        -3.9%               3.3%
Czechia          -6.1%              2.1%
New Zealand  -5.0%               2.4%
Finland          -5.0%               1.1%
Singapore      -4.8%               1.5%
HK                -5.4%               0.1%

* Not very much data
** India reports GDP data by fiscal year which ends in March of 2020.  To make it apples-to-apples I extrapolated Quaterly GDP projections of India to derive what a 2020 GDP projection might look like.

The India lockdown which went on for a couple of months clearly had a large impact so now India is expected to have GDP drop of of 2.5% in 2020.

The ROK and ROC clearly still the best on terms of contained economic impact relative to Feb 2020 projections.  PRC and Vietnam now the only two economies that can expect any sort of growth in 2020.

Sweden seems to be the European economy with the least net impact given their lack of lockdown.

Overall I suspect these numbers for Europe and USA are too pessimistic and the chances of a V-shaped recovery is underestimated. 
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2020, 08:00:57 AM »

U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Fell in May as Hiring Rebounded

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-jobless-rate-unexpectedly-fell-123601431.html

The V-shaped recovery is coming.  I suspect USA is not the only Western country that will see something like this.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2020, 07:13:14 AM »

End of June GDP projection for 2020 (and 2021) chart based on average of various financial houses and compare them to 2020 GDP projections from Feb 2020.

               June 2020          Feb 2020          June 2021
World            -3.7%              3.1%                5.0%
USA              -5.3%               1.8%               4.2%
Eurozone       -8.3%               1.0%               5.9%
PRC               1.5%               5.5%***          7.9%
Japan           -4.9%               0.5%                2.5%
UK               -8.5%               1.0%                5.9%
India            -3.7%**           5.7%**            7.4%
Brazil            -6.0%              2.2%                3.1%
Canada         -6.9%               1.5%               4.6%
ROK             -0.5%               2.2%               3.2%
Russia          -4.6%               1.8%               3.2%
Australia       -3.7%               2.1%               3.5%
Mexico          -7.9%               0.9%               2.8%
Indonesia       0.9%               5.0%               5.6%
Turkey          -3.8%               2.8%               4.6%
Saudi Arabia -4.1%                2.3%              3.2%
Switzerland   -5.5%               1.2%               4.3%
ROC               0.4%               2.3%              3.2%
Argentina      -8.1%              -1.6%              3.6%
Sweden         -4.5%               1.1%              3.8%
Poland          -4.0%                3.3%              4.2%
Thailand        -5.9%               2.0%              4.3%
Norway         -4.7%               1.8%              3.9%
Philippines     -3.5%               6.2%              7.5%
Nigeria          -2.4%*             2.3%              2.0%
Vietnam         2.3%                6.7%              8.1%
Israel            -4.2%               3.0%              4.1%
South Africa   -7.3%               0.8%              2.8%
Malaysia        -3.9%               4.0%              5.8%
Columbia       -4.1%               3.2%              3.7%
Romania        -5.4%               3.2%              4.4%
Hungary        -4.8%               3.3%              4.3%
Ukraine         -5.7%               3.2%              4.2%
Czechia          -6.9%              2.1%              4.7%
New Zealand  -5.0%               2.4%             5.3%
Finland          -5.9%               1.1%              3.7%
Singapore      -5.6%               1.5%              5.1%
HK                -5.7%               0.1%              4.3%

* Data is thin
** India fiscal year is April to March so I and normalize the data using quarterly GDP protections to make it apples to apples
*** For PRC I used Jan 2020 GDP estimates for 2020 since by Feb is was clear that the virus would have huge economic impact.

Situation looks much gloomier for non-Scandinavian Europe, South American and Southeast Asia.  USA, East Asia and Scandinavia looks better than in May 2020.  India impact is getting worse and worse. The entire India lock down strategy did not seem to have stopped the virus AND had a huge economic impact.

In terms of economic impact clearly the star students are ROC and ROK.  Vietnam, PRC and Sweden also will fare relatively well.  USA and Australia will outperform all other advanced economies in terms of minimizing economic impact.  PRC and Vietnam will be the only economies to have any real growth in 2020 and both will have a massive surge in 2021.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2020, 06:22:50 AM »
« Edited: August 01, 2020, 11:34:20 AM by jaichind »

End of July GDP projection for 2020 (and 2021) chart based on average of various financial houses and compare them to 2020 GDP projections from Feb 2020.  I also added 2021 GDP projections from Feb 2020 (Jan 2020 for PRC).

               July 2020          Feb 2020          July 2021        Feb 2021
World            -3.6%              3.1%                5.0%               3.3%
USA              -5.2%               1.8%               3.9%               1.9%
Eurozone       -8.1%               1.0%               5.7%               1.3%
PRC               2.0%               5.5%***          7.8%               5.8%***
Japan           -5.0%               0.5%                2.5%               0.8%
UK               -9.3%               1.0%                6.1%               1.5%
India            -5.2%**           5.7%**            7.7%**            6.5%**
Brazil            -6.1%              2.2%                3.3%               2.5%
Canada         -6.7%               1.5%               4.7%               1.8%
ROK             -0.7%               2.2%               3.3%                2.3%
Russia          -4.6%               1.8%               3.2%                1.9%
Australia       -3.8%               2.1%               3.4%                2.6%
Mexico          -9.0%               0.9%               3.1%               1.8%
Indonesia      -1.1%               5.0%               5.4%               5.2%
Turkey          -3.8%               2.8%               4.6%                3.1%
Saudi Arabia  -5.2%               2.3%              3.5%                2.2%
Switzerland   -6.0%               1.2%               4.6%                1.3%
ROC               0.6%               2.3%              3.1%                 2.4%
Argentina     -10.1%             -1.6%              4.2%                1.5%
Sweden         -4.5%               1.1%              3.7%                1.5%
Poland          -3.9%                3.3%              4.2%                3.2%
Thailand        -6.6%               2.0%              4.4%                3.3%
Norway         -4.7%               1.8%              3.8%                1.5%
Philippines     -4.1%               6.2%              7.8%                6.3%
Nigeria          -2.8%*             2.3%              2.5%*               2.5%
Vietnam         2.5%                6.7%              8.0%                6.7%
Israel            -5.1%               3.0%              4.6%                3.2%
South Africa   -7.7%               0.8%              3.1%                1.4%
Malaysia        -3.8%               4.0%              5.8%                4.5%
Columbia       -5.3%               3.2%              4.0%                3.2%
Romania        -5.3%               3.2%              4.5%                2.8%
Hungary        -5.0%               3.3%              4.5%                2.9%
Ukraine         -5.8%               3.2%              4.3%                3.6%
Czechia          -7.0%              2.1%              4.9%                2.4%
New Zealand  -5.5%               2.4%             5.3%                2.6%
Finland          -5.7%               1.1%              3.9%               1.1%
Singapore      -5.7%               1.5%              5.1%                2.0%
HK                -6.4%               0.1%              4.0%                2.0%

* Data is thin
** India fiscal year is April to March so I and normalize the data using quarterly GDP protections to make it apples to apples
*** For PRC I used Jan 2020 GDP estimates for 2020 and 2021 since by Feb is was clear that the virus would have huge economic impact.

Several emerging economies like India, Mexico, Indonesia, Argentina, Thailand, Philippines, South Africa, Columbia saw large downgrades in 2020 GDP growth but stronger rebounds in 2021 GDP growth as a part of the recovery.

The point of including Feb(Jan) 2020 GDP projection for 2021 is for me to compute the net GDP loss for the 2020-2021 period for each economy between current projections and what the Feb(Jan) 2020 projections looked like for 2020 and 2021.  Doing so and ranking them you get:

ROC                    -1.0%
ROK                    -2.0%
PRC                     -2.1%
Vietnam               -3.1%
Sweden               -3.6%
Japan                  -3.9%
Switzerland          -4.2%
Finland                -4.2%
Norway                -4.4%
Singapore            -4.4%
HK                      -4.8%
Eurozone             -5.2%
Nigeria                -5.2%* (data is thin)
USA                    -5.2%
Russia                 -5.3%
World                  -5.3%
Australia             -5.3%
Turkey                -5.4%
New Zealand       -5.6%
Canada               -5.6%
Argentina            -6.2%
Indonesia            -6.2%
UK                     -6.3%
Saudi Arabia       -6.4%
Poland                -6.5%
Malaysia             -6.9%
Czechia              -7.0%
Hungary             -7.0%
Israel                 -7.0%
South Africa       -7.0%
Romania            -7.1%
Brazil                 -7.8%
Thailand            -7.9%
Columbia           -8.0%
Ukraine              -8.7%
Mexico               -8.9%
Philippines         -9.5%
India                -10.5%

So this way we can rank each economies' effectiveness in minimizing economic impact of the virus.  The result seems.  The Oriental economies are at the top followed by Scandinavian economies.  Non-Scandinavian Advanced economies comes next with UK being the worst of the advanced economies.  Although if I breakout the Eurozone economies I am sure the Southern Europe economies will be just as bad as UK and the Northern Europe economies closer to Scandinavian economies.   Then comes the emerging economies with Eastern Europe emerging economies doing somewhat better than the rest (South Asia, Southeast Asia and Latin America.)

It seems that India's poor record here has it getting the worst of both worlds.  They tried an Oriental  economies approach of a lockdown but was not organizationally able to do it effectively. So they got the economic hit without curbing the virus and are not getting the V-shaped recovery that the Oriental economies are now getting.  

Sweden's strategy of herd immunity has shown itself to be effective and even though they fall short of the Oriental  economies in terms of minimizing impact I think overall their strategy is superior to the Oriental economies as they are now better suited to deal with the risk a a second wave.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2020, 07:38:53 AM »

A problem with India is that there is a lot of people, who live in a condensed living space.

All the more reason not to try a lockdown strategy that the Oriental economies tried when they do not have same organisational and big data infrastructure the Oriental economies had.  India as much better of with the Sweden herd immunity approach.  The lockdown was a clear economic policy fiasco.  Just to be clear, like demonetization of 2016, a policy failure does not mean political failure as Modi is more popular than ever and most of the anger seems to be directed toward state governments.  Modi understood is that what the electorate wanted to see is collective action where everyone gets to participate solving a problem even if in the end the problem is not solved.  Being a part of that ritual consolidates support for the regime just like the demonetization of 2016 which was clearly an economic policy failure.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #15 on: September 01, 2020, 05:24:21 AM »
« Edited: September 01, 2020, 05:48:47 AM by jaichind »

End of financial house weighted average Aug GDP chart with a bunch of Eurozone countries individually listed along with some more emerging economies.

                            Aug 20   Feb 20   Aug 21   Feb 21
World                   -3.7%     3.1%     4.9%     3.3%
USA                     -5.0%     1.8%     3.8%     1.9%
Eurozone              -7.9%     1.0%     5.6%     1.3%
PRC                       2.1%     5.9%#   7.8%     5.8%#
Japan                   -5.3%     0.5%     2.5%     0.8%
Germany              -6.0%     0.7%     4.8%     1.2%
India                    -5.9%**  5.7%** 8.2%** 6.5%**
UK                        -9.8%     1.0%     6.3%     1.5%
France                  -9.8%     1.2%     7.0%     1.3%
Italy                   -10.1%     0.4%     6.0%     0.6%
Brazil                    -5.6%     2.2%     3.5%     2.5%
Canada                 -6.6%     1.5%     4.8%     1.8%
Russia                  -4.6%     1.8%     3.2%     1.9%
ROK                     -0.9%     2.2%     3.3%     2.3%
Spain                  -11.6%     1.6%     6.9%     1.6%
Australia              -4.1%     2.1%     3.2%     2.6%
Mexico                 -9.8%     0.9%     3.3%     1.8%
Indonesia             -1.3%     5.0%     5.3%     5.2%
Netherlands         -5.3%     1.5%     3.7%     1.5%
Saudi Arabia        -5.2%*   2.3%     3.4%*   2.2%
Turkey                 -4.0%     2.8%     4.7%     3.1%
Switzerland          -5.8%     1.2%     4.4%     1.3%
ROC                     0.6%     2.3%     3.1%     2.4%
Poland                 -3.8%     3.3%     4.1%     3.2%
Thailand              -7.3%     2.0%     4.4%     3.3%
Sweden               -4.4%     1.1%     3.8%     1.5%
Belgium               -7.8%     1.0%     4.9%     1.1%
Austria                -6.5%     1.1%     4.3%     1.5%
Nigeria                -3.1%     2.3%     2.3%     2.5%
Argentina          -10.5%    -1.6%     4.3%     1.5%
Norway               -4.6%     1.8%     3.7%     1.5%
Israel                  -5.1%     3.0%     4.7%     3.2%
Ireland                -6.1%     2.9%     5.1%     2.8%
HK                      -6.8%     0.1%     4.1%     2.0%
Malaysia              -4.9%     4.0%     6.0%     4.5%
Singapore            -6.4%     1.5%     5.2%     2.0%
South Africa         -7.9%     0.8%     3.3%     1.4%
Philippines           -7.0%     6.2%     7.4%     6.3%
Columbia             -6.1%     3.2%     4.4%     3.2%
Chile                   -5.9%     1.4%     4.5%     2.5%
Vietnam               2.4%*   6.7%     8.0%*   6.7%
Finland               -5.6%*    1.1%     3.9%*   1.1%
Czechia               -6.6%     2.1%     4.9%     2.4%
Romania             -5.2%     3.2%     4.5%     2.8%
Portugal              -8.7%     1.5%     5.3%     1.5%
Peru                 -11.1%     3.0%     7.8%     3.4%
Greece               -8.0%     2.0%     3.8%     1.9%
New Zealand       -5.7%     2.4%     5.3%     2.6%
Hungary             -5.1%     3.3%     4.6%     2.9%
Ukraine              -6.0%*   3.2%     4.4%*   3.6%

* Data is thin
** India fiscal year is April to March so I and normalize the data using quarterly GDP protections to make it apples to apples
# For PRC I used Jan 2020 GDP estimates for 2020 and 2021 since by Feb is was clear that the virus would have huge economic impact.

Things getting worse in non-Oriental emerging economies while advanced economies mostly the same as end of July.  India's 2020 Q2 GDP numbers came in at -23.9 YoY would means the current average of  -5.9% in 2020 will most likely end up -9% or something like that.  

The only economies that will see any real growth this year will be PRC and Vietnam.  In 2020 absolute terms Spain, Peru, Argentina, and Italy will see the worst GDP drop although I suspect they might be joined by India once the India Q2 numbers are taken into account.  

If you then compute net GDP loss for the 2020-2021 period for each economy between current projections and what the Feb(Jan) 2020 projections looked like for 2020 and 2021.  Doing so and ranking them you get:


ROC               -1.0%
PRC               -2.0%
ROK               -2.2%
Vietnam          -3.3%
Sweden          -3.4%
Germany        -3.4%
Finland           -4.1%
Switzerland     -4.2%
Japan             -4.2%
Norway           -4.4%
Netherlands    -4.8%
Eurozone        -5.1%
Singapore       -5.1%
HK                 -5.1%
Austria           -5.1%
USA               -5.1%
Russia            -5.3%
Belgium          -5.4%
Canada          -5.4%
Turkey           -5.5%
World            -5.5%
Chile             -5.6%
Italy              -5.7%
Nigeria           -5.7%
New Zealand  -5.8%
Australia        -5.8%
France           -6.0%
Poland           -6.5%
Saudi Arabia  -6.5%
Argentina       -6.5%
Indonesia       -6.5%
Czechia          -6.6%
UK                 -6.6%
Portugal         -6.9%
Israel             -6.9%
Romania        -7.0%
Hungary         -7.0%
Brazil             -7.1%
South Africa   -7.1%
Ireland          -7.2%
Malaysia        -7.9%
Greece          -8.4%
Columbia       -8.5%
Thailand        -8.6%
Spain            -8.7%
Ukraine         -8.8%
Mexico          -9.5%
Peru            -10.7%
India           -10.8%
Philippines   -13.0%

The pattern is fairly clear.  Doing the best in term of minimizing impact  at Oriental economies.  After that are the Nordic-Germanic economies.  After that are the non-Nordic-Germanic advanced economies with USA clearly doing the best of all to Anglo bloc with UK doing the worst.  After that are the PIGS European economies with Spain and good old Greece doing very badly.  And there is a whole range of emerging economies with India and Philippines doing the worst.  As pointed out before India's 2020 GDP will most likely be something like -9% given the data it come out with yesterday which has not been taken into account in the financial firm projections so India will most likely bring up the rear.

It is interesting but not unexpected that places like Thailand and Greece got hit hard mostly due to the collapse of tourism which shows the extent these two economies are dependent on tourism.  HK and Singapore as entrepôt economies are also clearly doing worse that other Oriental economies.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #16 on: September 01, 2020, 05:43:17 AM »

For me the best response is Sweden.  Even though they lag behind some Oriental economies in terms of minimizing economic impact they are now fairly invulnerable to any renewed outbreak where as the various Oriental economies mostly artificially suppressed the spread of the virus which merely delays the inevitable and is based on the premise that an effective vaccine can be quickly manufactured and dispersed.   

USA and Russia also did fairly well by only doing worse than the Oriental and Nordic-Germanic economies in term of mitigating impact.  In my view India was the worst mostly due to their draconian and ineffective (worst of both worlds) that destroyed the economy without really stopping the virus.  Philippines did something similar and was almost as bad.  Fortunately both are beginning to adopt a de facto herd immunity with some localized lockdowns that does not last long here or there. Hopefully this will lead to a V shaped recovery later this year and in 2021 in both economies as the economic cost of these lockdown were massive and completely out of proportion with benefits, if any, that came as a result of these ill advised lockdowns.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #17 on: September 16, 2020, 07:07:39 AM »

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/world-economy-seen-withstanding-virus-103940341.html#:~:text=The%20world%20economy%20will%20shrink,in%20activity%20since%20lockdowns%20ended.

World Economy Seen Withstanding Virus Better Than Forecast



Advanced economies and East Asia getting better while other emerging economies getting worse. 
 USA doing better than most advanced economies.  Very similar to the charts I have produced and how they have trended.  South Africa is a surprise.  OECD is a lot negative than most other financial firm estimates.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #18 on: October 01, 2020, 07:56:26 AM »

End of Sept financial house weighted average Aug GDP chart with a bunch of Eurozone countries individually listed along with some more emerging economies.

                            Sep 20   Feb 20   Sep 21   Feb 20
World                     -3.8%     3.1%     5.1%     3.3%
USA                       -4.3%     1.8%     3.8%     1.9%
Eurozone                -7.7%     1.0%     5.5%     1.3%
PRC                         2.2%    5.9%#   7.9%     5.8%#
Japan                     -5.8%     0.5%     2.5%     0.8%
Germany                -5.6%     0.7%     4.5%     1.2%
India                      -7.9%**  5.7%**  8.2%** 6.5%**
UK                         -9.5%     1.0%     6.3%     1.5%
France                    -9.6%     1.2%     6.7%     1.3%
Italy                     -10.1%     0.4%     5.8%     0.6%
Brazil                     -5.6%     2.2%     3.6%     2.5%
Canada                   -6.1%     1.5%     4.8%     1.8%
Russia                    -4.4%     1.8%     3.2%     1.9%
ROK                       -1.2%     2.2%     3.3%     2.3%
Spain                   -12.0%     1.6%     6.8%     1.6%
Australia                -4.0%     2.1%     2.9%     2.6%
Mexico                  -10.1%     0.9%     3.4%     1.8%
Indonesia               -1.5%     5.0%     5.2%     5.2%
Netherlands            -5.1%     1.5%     3.6%     1.5%
Saudi Arabia           -5.0%     2.3%     3.4%     2.2%
Turkey                   -3.5%     2.8%     4.4%     3.1%
Switzerland            -5.0%     1.2%     4.1%     1.3%
ROC                        0.8%     2.3%     3.1%     2.4%
Poland                   -3.6%     3.3%     4.1%     3.2%
Thailand                -7.5%     2.0%     4.2%     3.3%
Sweden                 -4.3%     1.1%     3.8%     1.5%
Belgium                 -7.9%     1.0%     5.0%     1.1%
Austria                  -6.6%     1.1%     4.3%     1.5%
Nigeria                  -3.3%     2.3%     2.5%     2.5%
Argentina            -10.7%    -1.6%     4.6%     1.5%
Norway                  -4.2%     1.8%     3.6%     1.5%
UAE                       -4.7%     2.5%     2.7%     1.9%
Israel                    -5.5%     3.0%     4.4%     3.2%
Ireland                  -5.1%     2.9%     4.8%     2.8%
HK                        -7.0%     0.1%     4.1%     2.0%
Malaysia                -5.4%     4.0%     6.5%     4.5%
Singapore              -6.2%     1.5%     5.6%     2.0%
South Africa           -8.5%     0.8%     3.3%     1.4%
Philippines             -7.5%     6.2%     7.4%     6.3%
Denmark               -4.3%     1.5%     3.6%     1.5%
Columbia               -6.4%     3.2%     4.5%     3.2%
Egypt                     1.9%     5.5%     2.6%     5.5%
Chile                     -5.8%     1.4%     4.8%     2.5%
Vietnam                 2.6%     6.7%     7.8%     6.7%
Finland                 -4.1%     1.1%     2.9%     1.1%
Czechia                -6.5%     2.1%     4.6%     2.4%
Romania               -4.9%     3.2%     4.2%     2.8%
Portugal               -8.6%     1.5%     5.4%     1.5%
Peru                   -12.3%     3.0%     8.8%     3.4%
Greece                 -8.2%     2.0%     4.9%     1.9%
New Zealand        -5.3%     2.4%     4.7%     2.6%
Hungary               -5.8%     3.3%     4.7%     2.9%
Ukraine                -6.0%     3.2%     4.4%     3.6%

* Data is thin
** India fiscal year is April to March so I and normalize the data using quarterly GDP protections to make it apples to apples
# For PRC I used Jan 2020 GDP estimates for 2020 and 2021 since by Feb is was clear that the virus would have huge economic impact.

As I pointed out in end of August, India's numbers will get worse given the 2020 Q2 numbers and it indeed did.  The economic that gained the most is USA where the recovery is going faster than expected.  

The only economies that will see any real growth this year will be PRC, Vietnam, and Egypt.  Mexico, Argentina, Spain, and Peru will see the worst  absolute economic drop in 2020.  I guess if your country speaks Spanish the economic impact this year will be large.

If you then compute net GDP loss for the 2020-2021 period for each economy between current projections and what the Feb(Jan) 2020 projections looked like for 2020 and 2021.  Doing so and ranking them you get:

ROC                 -0.8%
PRC                  -1.8%
ROK                 -2.5%
Vietnam           -3.2%
Germany          -3.3%
Sweden           -3.3%
Finland            -3.5%
Switzerland      -3.6%
Denmark          -3.9%
Norway            -4.1%
USA                 -4.4%
Singapore        -4.5%
Netherlands      -4.7%
Japan               -4.7%
Canada            -4.9%
Eurozone         -4.9%
Russia             -5.1%
Austria            -5.2%
Chile               -5.2%
Turkey             -5.2%
HK                  -5.3%
World              -5.4%
Belgium           -5.4%
Nigeria            -5.7%
Italy                -5.9%
New Zealand    -5.9%
Australia          -6.0%
France             -6.1%
Poland             -6.3%
UK                  -6.3%
Saudi Arabia    -6.3%
Ireland            -6.4%
Argentina        -6.5%
UAE                -6.6%
Portugal          -6.7%
Czechia           -6.7%
Egypt              -6.8%
Indonesia        -6.8%
Brazil              -7.0%
Romania          -7.0%
Israel              -7.6%
Greece            -7.6%
Hungary          -7.7%
South Africa     -7.7%
Malaysia          -7.9%
Columbia         -8.7%
Ukraine           -8.8%
Thailand          -9.0%
Spain              -9.2%
Mexico            -9.8%
Peru              -11.1%
India             -12.9%
Philippines     -13.5%

The pattern is fairly clear.  Doing the best in term of minimizing impact  at Oriental economies.  After that are the Nordic-Germanic economies.   The superstar economy beyond Oriental and Nordic-Germanic economies is USA.  Non-Oriental Asian emerging economies seems like was hurt the most.  India's numbers I suspect will get worse after the 2020 Q3 numbers comes in so it will be a race between India and Philippines for the bottom.  The good news for India is they mostly gave up on lockdowns and are going for herd immunity while Philippines are still trying on and off this lockdown strategy which is clearly a failure.  
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #19 on: December 05, 2020, 07:52:17 AM »

Early Dec financial house weighted average Aug GDP chart with a bunch of Eurozone countries individually listed along with some more emerging economies.

                            Dec 20   Feb 20   Dec 21   Feb 20
World                     -3.9%     3.1%     5.1%     3.3%
USA                       -3.6%     1.8%     3.8%     1.9%
Eurozone                -7.4%     1.0%     4.7%     1.3%
PRC                         2.0%    5.9%#   8.2%     5.8%#
Japan                     -5.4%     0.5%     2.7%     0.8%
Germany                -5.5%     0.7%     3.9%     1.2%
India                      -7.8%**  5.7%**  7.7%** 6.5%**
UK                        -11.1%     1.0%     5.1%     1.5%
France                    -9.2%     1.2%     6.0%     1.3%
Italy                       -9.0%     0.4%     5.3%     0.6%
Brazil                     -4.9%     2.2%     3.6%     2.5%
Canada                   -5.8%     1.5%     4.6%     1.8%
Russia                    -3.9%     1.8%     3.0%     1.9%
ROK                       -1.1%     2.2%     3.2%     2.3%
Spain                   -11.7%     1.6%     5.8%     1.6%
Australia                -3.3%     2.1%     3.3%     2.6%
Mexico                   -9.1%     0.9%    3.8%     1.8%
Indonesia               -2.1%     5.0%     4.8%     5.2%
Netherlands            -4.7%     1.5%     3.3%     1.5%
Saudi Arabia           -4.8%     2.3%     3.0%     2.2%
Turkey                   -1.7%     2.8%     4.2%     3.1%
Switzerland            -4.0%     1.2%     3.6%     1.3%
ROC                        1.9%     2.3%     3.6%     2.4%
Poland                   -3.5%     3.3%     3.8%     3.2%
Thailand                -6.5%     2.0%     4.2%     3.3%
Sweden                 -3.8%     1.1%     3.0%     1.5%
Belgium                 -7.7%     1.0%     4.3%     1.1%
Austria                  -6.9%     1.1%     3.8%     1.5%
Nigeria                  -3.6%     2.3%     2.1%     2.5%
Argentina            -11.0%    -1.6%     4.4%     1.5%
Norway                  -3.4%     1.8%     3.2%     1.5%
UAE                       -6.1%     2.5%     2.5%     1.9%
Israel                    -5.0%     3.0%     4.6%     3.2%
Ireland                  -3.2%     2.9%     3.9%     2.8%
HK                        -6.2%     0.1%     4.6%     2.0%
Malaysia                -5.8%     4.0%     6.9%     4.5%
Singapore              -5.9%     1.5%     5.5%     2.0%
South Africa           -8.2%     0.8%     3.6%     1.4%
Philippines             -9.3%     6.2%     7.4%     6.3%
Denmark               -4.1%     1.5%     3.5%     1.5%
Columbia               -7.0%     3.2%     4.8%     3.2%
Egypt                     1.7%     5.5%     3.1%     5.5%
Chile                     -6.0%     1.4%     5.3%     2.5%
Vietnam                 2.7%     6.7%     7.7%     6.7%
Finland                 -3.7%     1.1%     2.6%     1.1%
Czechia                -6.8%     2.1%     3.7%     2.4%
Romania               -5.1%     3.2%     4.2%     2.8%
Portugal               -8.5%     1.5%     5.1%     1.5%
Peru                   -11.9%     3.0%     8.4%     3.4%
Greece                 -8.5%     2.0%     4.4%     1.9%
New Zealand        -5.0%     2.4%     4.5%     2.6%
Hungary               -5.8%     3.3%     4.4%     2.9%
Kazakhstan          -2.0%     3.8        4.0%     4.0%
Ukraine                -5.4%     3.2%     4.0%     3.6%

* Data is thin
** India fiscal year is April to March so I and normalize the data using quarterly GDP protections to make it apples to apples
# For PRC I used Jan 2020 GDP estimates for 2020 and 2021 since by Feb is was clear that the virus would have huge economic impact.

Advanced European numbers got better for 2020 but worse for 2021 as the latest wave of lockdowns will most likely hurt 2021 growth.  Emerging economies seems to have gotten worse for 2020 but slightly better for 2021.  UK clearly got hurt the most out of this latest round of projection updates. USA and Turkey clearly got better for 2020 and 2021.

The only economies that will see any real growth this year will be PRC, ROC, Vietnam, and Egypt.   Oriental economies like ROC, HK  and even Japan saw significant improvement on the backs of a clear PRC recovery.

If you then compute net GDP loss for the 2020-2021 period for each economy between current projections and what the Feb(Jan) 2020 projections looked like for 2020 and 2021.  Doing so and ranking them you get:

ROC                  0.8%
PRC                  -1.7%
ROK                 -2.5%
Switzerland       -3.1%
Vietnam           -3.2%
Finland             -3.4%
Sweden            -3.5%
Turkey             -3.6%
Norway            -3.6%
USA                 -3.7%
Germany          -3.7%
Denmark          -3.8%
HK                   -4.0%
Japan               -4.1%
Singapore        -4.3%
Netherlands      -4.6%
Russia             -4.8%
Canada            -4.8%
Australia          -4.9%
Chile               -5.0%
Italy                -5.2%
Ireland            -5.3%
Eurozone         -5.4%
World              -5.5%
New Zealand    -5.8%
Belgium           -5.8%
Austria            -6.0%
Kazakhstan      -6.0%
Brazil              -6.2%
France             -6.3%
Nigeria            -6.4%
Poland             -6.4%
Egypt              -6.4%
Saudi Arabia    -6.5%
Portugal          -6.9%
Israel              -6.9%
Argentina        -7.0%
South Africa     -7.1%
Romania          -7.2%
Indonesia        -7.9%
Czechia           -7.9%
Thailand          -7.0%
Hungary          -8.0%
Malaysia          -8.0%
UAE                -8.2%
Mexico            -8.4%
Greece            -8.4%
Ukraine           -8.5%
Columbia         -9.0%
UK                  -9.1%
Spain              -9.8%
Peru              -11.0%
India             -13.3%
Philippines     -15.5%

The pattern is fairly clear.  Doing the best in term of minimizing impact  at Oriental economies.  After that are the Nordic-Germanic economies.   The superstar economy beyond Oriental and Nordic-Germanic economies is Turkey and USA.  Another superstar is ROC which now will have GAINED in absolute economic terms relative to projections in early 2020.  In other words COVID-19 HELPED ROC economically in absolute terms.  Non-Oriental Asian emerging economies seems like was hurt the most although Latin American economies seems also hard hit.  UK and Spain are particularly bad since they are at the bottom as an advanced economy as their peers more up in the middle of the pack.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #20 on: December 11, 2020, 12:06:41 PM »

How each economy handled the economic impact clearly have a wide spectrum of results.  I am not convinced there is really that much difference, outside a few areas in the Orient where it seems for now they stopped it cold, on handling the spread of the virus.  Most difference between various countries seems to be more about a) level of testing, b) how death are attributed c) climate cycle where the rate of infection goes up when people need to spend more time inside (winters in colder areas and summers in hotter areas).  Outside these factors  am not nut sure anyone is really moving the needle that much one way or another.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #21 on: December 11, 2020, 12:13:31 PM »

https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/hongkongers-rushing-to-mainland-to-escape-virus/

It seems even in the Orient there are differentiations.   It seems over 600K people in HK have "escaped" to Mainland China to avoid COVID-19.  That is around 9% of the HK population.  I am surprised at this.  I have team members in HK and all info I have collected from them are things are going pretty well there.  There is a spike now but does not seem that big of a deal.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #22 on: January 10, 2021, 08:19:12 AM »



OECD GDP projections of 2019Q4 vs 2021Q4 tells a similar story I have been telling.  Key thing here is that these numbers as are absolute growth and does not compare it to what growth would have been like without COVID-19.  Namely PRC is a 5%-6% GDP growth economy so this chart says is is mostly back on track by end of 2021.    USA which is a 2%-3% GDP growth economy performs quite well compared to other advanced economies.  UK performs very poorly.  Japan which is a 0%-1% GDP growth economy also did well all things considered.  Emerging economies did very poorly, especially India which should be a 6%-7% GDP growth economy.  Indonesia which should be growing at 6%-7% did come in positive overall but well short of what it should be at without COVID-19.  Argentina got battered but it was going to have poor 2020 and 2021 anyway due to its economic crisis that started before COVID-19 so which their numbers are bad, it is not as bad as what would first appear.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #23 on: January 11, 2021, 08:03:55 AM »

Iran is just scary. They rejected Western vaccines that came from NGOs simply because their leadership are theocrats who deny the Holocaust.
Nah, Iran both can’t afford the vaccine nor wants to lose face in doing so. They are trying to save face even further by taking co-credit with Cuba in developing a cheaper vaccine.

While the current situation in Iran is bad in relation to the pandemic, along with the obvious falsification of the death rate per usual of this regime, per capita it is probably still lower than the United States.

A, to be fair subjective, analysis of excess deaths



Seems to indicate that per capita excessive deaths in Iran is higher than USA.  USA excess deaths per capita is lower than most countries in the world.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #24 on: January 17, 2021, 05:58:23 PM »


Since Taiwan is a Chinese Province I tend to compare it to other Chinese provinces.  If you look at non-Hubei Province PRC, a lot of provinces performed just as well if not better than ROC in terms of COVID-19 containment and economic impact.  Yunnan Province comes to mind.  They had no cases and the economic impact is fairly tiny just like ROC.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.113 seconds with 12 queries.