Best and worst countries on COVID-19 response

[jaichind]

Bottom countries are
Russia        49%
UK             49%
Serbia        48%
Germany    47%
Iraq           46%
Ecuador      44%
USA           42%
Japan         23%
Thailand     20%

Did they poll Chile? Local polls have approval of president's handling of the crisis at 28%

Sorry.  Chile was not on the list

[Pericles]

Given New Zealand is on track to eliminate the virus, it should be one of the best.

[PSOL]

Best: Vietnam, Cuba, South Korea, Taiwan, Germany, New Zealand
Worst: NK, Turkmenistan, Belarus, Iran, Iraq, Ecuador, Brazil, Italy, India, Ukraine, United States, Indonesia, Sweden, Japan

[Meclazine for Israel]

In terms of the reported data, i would say Germany and South Korea, USA and Australia have excellent data.

The data presented were very clean, particularly South Korea and Australia.

The countries i have difficulty modelling for peak cases and dates of milestones are France, UK and Italy.

Their response on the ground might be A-grade, but the data i am looking through has many inconsistencies. They had never planned to be so far underwater during this type of pandemic.

When planning for a pandemic, i dont think many countries had any comprehension of what was going to happen.

The SE Asian countries had seen it 17 years ago.

Singapore has tracing of isolated travellers, tracking and removal of infected patients and mobile phone apps that actually monitor location. They have sentry like officers checking on people regularly.

When my sister came back to Australia from NZ and isolated for 2 weeks, nothing. No monitoring. No phone calls. Nothing.

Australia have had multiple stupidity incidents leading to more infections, but the virus never changed into a wide scale community spread.

It has always been travellers from overseas.

To be fair, Australia just got lucky and copied Trumps decisions on travel bans from China, Iran and Europe two days after he made them. And because we were a week behind the US, his strategy was the perfect one to copy.

The US had the right strategy, just the wrong time of year for a viral pandemic to hit New York.

Dr Fauci and Dr Birx have kept the US on track under very trying circumstances. Trump deserves credit for handing over the science to them 100%.

Just dont tell him.

[mgop]

Best: North Korea, Belarus, Sweden
Worst: India, Hungary, Lesotho

[CumbrianLefty]

Best: North Korea, Belarus, Sweden
Worst: India, Hungary, Lesotho

Que??

[Middle-aged Europe]

Dr Fauci and Dr Birx have kept the US on track under very trying circumstances. Trump deserves credit for handing over the science to them 100%.

That didn't age well.

[parochial boy]

The situation in Ecuador is starting to sound pretty horrific

[It’s so Joever]

Best: Australia, Germany, Iceland, Denmark, Singapore, New Zealand
Worst: Brazil, Ecuador, Mexico, USA, Iran, North Korea, Belarus

[jaichind]

Now that all the GDP projections from various financial houses are in for end of April I can produce an updated chart of 2020 average GDP projections when compared Fed 2020 average GDP projections for 2020.

                April 2020       Feb 2020
World          -3.1%              3.1%
USA            -4.8%              1.8%
Eurozone     -6.5%              1.0%
PRC              1.8%              5.5%
Japan          -3.9%              0.5%
UK              -5.9%              1.0%
India            0.4%              5.7%
Brazil          -2.9%              2.2%
Canada        -5.3%             1.5%
ROK            -0.4%              2.2%
Russia         -3.7%              1.8%
Australia      -3.5%              2.1%
Mexico         -5.3%             0.9%
Indonesia      1.8%             5.0%
Turkey         -2.1%             2.8%
Saudi Arabia-2.7%             2.3%
Switzerland  -3.7%             1.2%
ROC             0.1%              2.3%
Argentina    -5.1%             -1.6%
Sweden       -3.9%             1.1%
Poland         -3.1%             3.3%
Thailand      -4.2%             2.0%
Norway       -3.6%             1.8%
Philippines    0.8%             6.2%
Nigeria        -1.8%             2.3%
Vietnam       2.6%             6.7%

The volume of projection data for World, India, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Vietnam are a bit on the thin side.  I suspect given the oil price collapse the growth figures for Saudi Arabia and Nigeria will head down more from here.  The India drop surprises me as the India lockdown should have hit the informal sector more which are usually not picked up as much in official GDP figures.

The economies that will see the smallest drop relative to Feb 2020 projections would be ROC followed by ROK.  On the whole "colder" and more advanced economies are getting hit more.  The large Thailand fall seems to indicate their dependency on tourism was large than I would have expected.

The only economies that will see any real growth this year would be PRC (first in first out), Indonesia and Vietnam.  Indonesia and Vietnam has the advantage of being in warmer areas where the speed of the virus spread is reduced.  Indonesia also have the advantage of being a fairly large economy and less dependent on exports despite some dependency on the oil prices.

I am surprised that Sweden would see such a large reduction given their strategy of not locking down. I guess their export market in Eurozone which got hammered badly would obviously hit them.  Ditto for Mexico where if American catches a cold Mexico gets pneumonia so even without a large scale lockdown Mexico growth will be hit hard.  Mexico at least had the best oil price hedge setup of all the big oil producers and earned a bundle when oil prices crashed which mitigated some of the fiscal impact.

[Tender Branson]

Now that all the GDP projections from various financial houses are in for end of April I can produce an updated chart of 2020 average GDP projections when compared Fed 2020 average GDP projections for 2020.

                April 2020       Feb 2020
World          -3.1%              3.1%
USA            -4.8%              1.8%
Eurozone     -6.5%              1.0%
PRC              1.8%              5.5%
Japan          -3.9%              0.5%
UK              -5.9%              1.0%
India            0.4%              5.7%
Brazil          -2.9%              2.2%
Canada        -5.3%             1.5%
ROK            -0.4%              2.2%
Russia         -3.7%              1.8%
Australia      -3.5%              2.1%
Mexico         -5.3%             0.9%
Indonesia      1.8%             5.0%
Turkey         -2.1%             2.8%
Saudi Arabia-2.7%             2.3%
Switzerland  -3.7%             1.2%
ROC             0.1%              2.3%
Argentina    -5.1%             -1.6%
Sweden       -3.9%             1.1%
Poland         -3.1%             3.3%
Thailand      -4.2%             2.0%
Norway       -3.6%             1.8%
Philippines    0.8%             6.2%
Nigeria        -1.8%             2.3%
Vietnam       2.6%             6.7%

The volume of projection data for World, India, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Vietnam are a bit on the thin side.  I suspect given the oil price collapse the growth figures for Saudi Arabia and Nigeria will head down more from here.  The India drop surprises me as the India lockdown should have hit the informal sector more which are usually not picked up as much in official GDP figures.

The economies that will see the smallest drop relative to Feb 2020 projections would be ROC followed by ROK.  On the whole "colder" and more advanced economies are getting hit more.  The large Thailand fall seems to indicate their dependency on tourism was large than I would have expected.

The only economies that will see any real growth this year would be PRC (first in first out), Indonesia and Vietnam.  Indonesia and Vietnam has the advantage of being in warmer areas where the speed of the virus spread is reduced.  Indonesia also have the advantage of being a fairly large economy and less dependent on exports despite some dependency on the oil prices.

I am surprised that Sweden would see such a large reduction given their strategy of not locking down. I guess their export market in Eurozone which got hammered badly would obviously hit them.  Ditto for Mexico where if American catches a cold Mexico gets pneumonia so even without a large scale lockdown Mexico growth will be hit hard.  Mexico at least had the best oil price hedge setup of all the big oil producers and earned a bundle when oil prices crashed which mitigated some of the fiscal impact.

The WIFO now estimates the Austrian economy will decline by 5.2% this year.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-austria-economy/austrias-gdp-shrinks-27-in-first-quarter-largest-fall-since-financial-crisis-idUKKBN22C105

https://www.urdupoint.com/en/business/austrias-gdp-to-fall-by-525-over-covid-19-901657.html

[Tender Branson]

The elite club:

(honourable mention: Vietnam & Slovakia)

https://twitter.com/DavidHarrisAJC/status/1259442489834065920

[jaymichaud]

The elite club:

(honourable mention: Vietnam & Slovakia)

https://twitter.com/DavidHarrisAJC/status/1259442489834065920

Hong Kong too of course.

[Silent Hunter]

The UK is likely to end up with the worst response in Western Europe; it may have avoided a Wuhan or Lombardy style health system overload, but all this has badly exposed a lack of imagination in the planning and government.

[CumbrianLefty]

And a PM who wants all the glory of the post without any of the responsibility.

[QAnonKelly]

Of the more populous countries, South Korea and Germany have absolutely hit it out of the park. The US & Brazil are the worst of the big countries.

Best smaller countries: New Zealand and Taiwan. Worst: Hungary and Lesotho.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Of the more populous countries, South Korea and Germany have absolutely hit it out of the park. The US & Brazil are the worst of the big countries.

Best smaller countries: New Zealand and Taiwan. Worst: Hungary and Lesotho.

I don't devote a lot of thought to Lesotho (although I know what and where it is). What makes its response so bad?

[CumbrianLefty]

Of the more populous countries, South Korea and Germany have absolutely hit it out of the park. The US & Brazil are the worst of the big countries.

Best smaller countries: New Zealand and Taiwan. Worst: Hungary and Lesotho.

I don't devote a lot of thought to Lesotho (although I know what and where it is). What makes its response so bad?

I think they were outright denialists (a la DPRK and Turkmenistan) until recently?

[parochial boy]

Are we not talking about Andriy Rajoelina's miracle plant based cure? My first impression, was along the lines of "oh look, here comes another nutcase in the Yahya Jammeh mold", but it seems like it's not getting the outright dismissal that I would have expected.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to this detailed Politico analysis, Vietnam is A-number-1:

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/ranking-countries-coronavirus-impact/

[PSOL]

According to this detailed Politico analysis, Vietnam is A-number-1:

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/ranking-countries-coronavirus-impact/

lol @ India and China being on the right at all.

[Pericles]

According to this detailed Politico analysis, Vietnam is A-number-1:

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/ranking-countries-coronavirus-impact/

Judging from that Spain seems like the worst off.

[It’s so Joever]

Best:
South Korea
Australia
New Zealand
PRC
Taiwan (Watch Dead0/Greenline still call me a CCP bot)
Greece
Iceland
Austria
Vietnam
Thailand

Worst:
Brazil (finally a new champion!)
USA
North Korea
Belarus
Mexico
Russia
Iran
UK
Chile
Sweden

[Sozialliberal]

Best: North Korea, Belarus, Sweden
Worst: India, Hungary, Lesotho

Que??

North Korea hasn't had a single COVID-19 case, proving once more that NORTH KOREA IS BEST KOREA.

[jaichind]

End of May means I get to update my 2020 GDP growth projections (weight average of the projections of various financial houses) versus what they where in Feb 2020.

               May 2020          Feb 2020
World            -3.1%*             3.1%
USA              -5.9%               1.8%
Eurozone       -8.1%               1.0%
PRC               1.4%               5.5%
Japan           -4.6%               0.5%
UK               -7.9%               1.0%
India            -2.5%**           5.7%
Brazil            -5.2%              2.2%
Canada         -7.0%               1.5%
ROK             -0.6%               2.2%
Russia          -4.2%               1.8%
Australia       -4.1%               2.1%
Mexico          -7.2%               0.9%
Indonesia       0.0%               5.0%
Turkey          -3.7%               2.8%
Saudi Arabia -3.8%*              2.3%
Switzerland   -4.9%               1.2%
ROC              -0.2%               2.3%
Argentina      -6.3%              -1.6%
Sweden         -4.8%               1.1%
Poland          -3.6%                3.3%
Thailand        -5.7%               2.0%
Norway         -4.9%               1.8%
Philippines     -2.1%               6.2%
Nigeria          -2.5%*             2.3%
Vietnam          1.3%*             6.7%
Israel             -1.9%              3.0%
South Africa   -6.3%               0.8%
Malaysia        -3.2%               4.0%
Columbia       -3.2%               3.2%
Romania        -5.0%               3.2%
Hungary        -3.9%               3.3%
Czechia          -6.1%              2.1%
New Zealand  -5.0%               2.4%
Finland          -5.0%               1.1%
Singapore      -4.8%               1.5%
HK                -5.4%               0.1%

* Not very much data
** India reports GDP data by fiscal year which ends in March of 2020.  To make it apples-to-apples I extrapolated Quaterly GDP projections of India to derive what a 2020 GDP projection might look like.

The India lockdown which went on for a couple of months clearly had a large impact so now India is expected to have GDP drop of of 2.5% in 2020.

The ROK and ROC clearly still the best on terms of contained economic impact relative to Feb 2020 projections.  PRC and Vietnam now the only two economies that can expect any sort of growth in 2020.

Sweden seems to be the European economy with the least net impact given their lack of lockdown.

Overall I suspect these numbers for Europe and USA are too pessimistic and the chances of a V-shaped recovery is underestimated.