Best and worst countries on COVID-19 response
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Samof94
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« Reply #125 on: September 07, 2020, 06:46:14 AM »

Where does Peru fall in all of this proportionately?
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #126 on: September 07, 2020, 07:08:55 AM »

Not terribly well I think.
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SInNYC
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« Reply #127 on: September 07, 2020, 01:52:05 PM »

I dont like any stat based on death rate since it seems to be more about how young the population is than a country's response to the virus. If there are age adjusted death rates, that would be a great stat, but I havent seen any.

The number of total cases seems better, though its bad because of differences in testing.
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dead0man
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« Reply #128 on: September 07, 2020, 02:06:17 PM »

Worst: America. Is this even a question? I guarantee, this will be the last country where COVID is still a problem. Already, Canada and Mexico have closed their borders to us so that we don't infect them.
I guarantee that the US will NOT be the last country where Covid is still a problem.  There are still countries that occasionally get hit with the plague, polio and leprosy for s sake.
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I don't blame them; we will never get this under control.
oh, I see, you just don't know what the hell you're talking about.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #129 on: September 07, 2020, 02:15:46 PM »

Worst: America. Is this even a question? I guarantee, this will be the last country where COVID is still a problem. Already, Canada and Mexico have closed their borders to us so that we don't infect them.
I guarantee that the US will NOT be the last country where Covid is still a problem.  There are still countries that occasionally get hit with the plague, polio and leprosy for s sake.
Quote
I don't blame them; we will never get this under control.
oh, I see, you just don't know what the hell you're talking about.
*Pakistan has entered the chat*
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #130 on: September 07, 2020, 02:18:33 PM »

Also, there is never going to be an answer because nobody can f**king agree on what makes a response “good” and what makes one “bad”.

If I had to pick some countries with the best responses, I would probably say Vietnam, Malaysia, New Zealand (way too overhyped imho) Latvia, both Chinas, and Georgia, but it is too early to make an accurate list.

Worst response probably goes to North Korea.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #131 on: September 07, 2020, 04:35:48 PM »

Worst response probably goes to North Korea.

Have they admitted its existence yet?
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #132 on: September 07, 2020, 04:42:05 PM »

Worst response probably goes to North Korea.

Have they admitted its existence yet?
It’s North Korea, what do you think?
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #133 on: September 08, 2020, 05:31:12 AM »

Where does Peru fall in all of this proportionately?

Despite the lack of press about it, Peru has the 2nd worst COVID response anywhere on Earth based on the raw numbers (only behind tiny Luxembourg).

It could either be a "too much reporting" issue (kinda like how Belgium's numbers are sort of inflated) or they could genuinely have screwed up very badly.
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Samof94
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« Reply #134 on: September 08, 2020, 06:04:09 AM »

Peru almost certainly is like Brazil but worst proportionately.
North Korea has shot people with covid to try to control it.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #135 on: September 08, 2020, 08:29:11 AM »


Well there were rumours of a confirmed case a while ago, but this remains speculation.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #136 on: September 08, 2020, 10:37:47 AM »

Where does Peru fall in all of this proportionately?

Despite the lack of press about it, Peru has the 2nd worst COVID response anywhere on Earth based on the raw numbers (only behind tiny Luxembourg).

It could either be a "too much reporting" issue (kinda like how Belgium's numbers are sort of inflated) or they could genuinely have screwed up very badly.

I imagine it's something like "more honest reporting than the rest of Latin America", as practically the whole continent seems to have been hit in a much more brutal way than the numbers suggest.

As a general thing, quite a few of those middle-to-low-income countries that implemented really tough lockdowns basically before they were recording any cases (Peru stands out, as do India and South Africa) have wound up in pretty difficult situations, having realised the futility of even trying to lock people down in those sorts of economies.
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palandio
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« Reply #137 on: September 08, 2020, 01:29:39 PM »

[snip]

I imagine it's something like "more honest reporting than the rest of Latin America", as practically the whole continent seems to have been hit in a much more brutal way than the numbers suggest.

[snip]
On the Financial Times website there are some graphics on excess mortality.

Peru is at ca. 40k excess deaths in the time period until July 8, which is higher than the ca. 16.5k official COVID deaths until July 8 and even higher than the ca. 30k official COVID-19 deaths until now.

Brazil is at ca. 55k excess deaths in the time period until June 19, which is higher than the ca. 49k official COVID-19 deaths until June 19, but not much.

Ecuador is at ca. 24k excess deaths until July 1, which is higher than the ca. 7k offical COVID-19 deaths until July 1 and even higher than the ca. 10.6k official COVID-19 deaths until now.

Chile is at ca. 9.4k excess deaths until July 8, higher than the 7.5 official deaths until July 8.

Sadly no data for Argentina, Colombia, Venezuela, etc.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #138 on: September 08, 2020, 08:47:06 PM »

Where does Peru fall in all of this proportionately?

Despite the lack of press about it, Peru has the 2nd worst COVID response anywhere on Earth based on the raw numbers (only behind tiny Luxembourg).

It could either be a "too much reporting" issue (kinda like how Belgium's numbers are sort of inflated) or they could genuinely have screwed up very badly.

I imagine it's something like "more honest reporting than the rest of Latin America", as practically the whole continent seems to have been hit in a much more brutal way than the numbers suggest.

As a general thing, quite a few of those middle-to-low-income countries that implemented really tough lockdowns basically before they were recording any cases (Peru stands out, as do India and South Africa) have wound up in pretty difficult situations, having realised the futility of even trying to lock people down in those sorts of economies.
Indeed, lockdowns only work in developed countries with a decent percentage of the workforce able to switch to a virtual mode. Even then, they only work when implemented at the right time, and in the context of other policies.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #139 on: September 08, 2020, 08:47:37 PM »

Where does Peru fall in all of this proportionately?

Despite the lack of press about it, Peru has the 2nd worst COVID response anywhere on Earth based on the raw numbers (only behind tiny Luxembourg).

It could either be a "too much reporting" issue (kinda like how Belgium's numbers are sort of inflated) or they could genuinely have screwed up very badly.

I imagine it's something like "more honest reporting than the rest of Latin America", as practically the whole continent seems to have been hit in a much more brutal way than the numbers suggest.

As a general thing, quite a few of those middle-to-low-income countries that implemented really tough lockdowns basically before they were recording any cases (Peru stands out, as do India and South Africa) have wound up in pretty difficult situations, having realised the futility of even trying to lock people down in those sorts of economies.
Indeed, lockdowns only work in developed countries with a decent percentage of the workforce able to switch to a virtual mode. Even then, they only work when implemented at the right time, and in the context of other policies.
The exception would be some islands, I guess.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #140 on: September 09, 2020, 08:39:29 AM »

Given yet more chaos and confusion from our government since last night, they are likely carrying on their slow climb up the "worst" list.
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jaichind
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« Reply #141 on: September 16, 2020, 07:07:39 AM »

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/world-economy-seen-withstanding-virus-103940341.html#:~:text=The%20world%20economy%20will%20shrink,in%20activity%20since%20lockdowns%20ended.

World Economy Seen Withstanding Virus Better Than Forecast



Advanced economies and East Asia getting better while other emerging economies getting worse. 
 USA doing better than most advanced economies.  Very similar to the charts I have produced and how they have trended.  South Africa is a surprise.  OECD is a lot negative than most other financial firm estimates.
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jaichind
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« Reply #142 on: October 01, 2020, 07:56:26 AM »

End of Sept financial house weighted average Aug GDP chart with a bunch of Eurozone countries individually listed along with some more emerging economies.

                            Sep 20   Feb 20   Sep 21   Feb 20
World                     -3.8%     3.1%     5.1%     3.3%
USA                       -4.3%     1.8%     3.8%     1.9%
Eurozone                -7.7%     1.0%     5.5%     1.3%
PRC                         2.2%    5.9%#   7.9%     5.8%#
Japan                     -5.8%     0.5%     2.5%     0.8%
Germany                -5.6%     0.7%     4.5%     1.2%
India                      -7.9%**  5.7%**  8.2%** 6.5%**
UK                         -9.5%     1.0%     6.3%     1.5%
France                    -9.6%     1.2%     6.7%     1.3%
Italy                     -10.1%     0.4%     5.8%     0.6%
Brazil                     -5.6%     2.2%     3.6%     2.5%
Canada                   -6.1%     1.5%     4.8%     1.8%
Russia                    -4.4%     1.8%     3.2%     1.9%
ROK                       -1.2%     2.2%     3.3%     2.3%
Spain                   -12.0%     1.6%     6.8%     1.6%
Australia                -4.0%     2.1%     2.9%     2.6%
Mexico                  -10.1%     0.9%     3.4%     1.8%
Indonesia               -1.5%     5.0%     5.2%     5.2%
Netherlands            -5.1%     1.5%     3.6%     1.5%
Saudi Arabia           -5.0%     2.3%     3.4%     2.2%
Turkey                   -3.5%     2.8%     4.4%     3.1%
Switzerland            -5.0%     1.2%     4.1%     1.3%
ROC                        0.8%     2.3%     3.1%     2.4%
Poland                   -3.6%     3.3%     4.1%     3.2%
Thailand                -7.5%     2.0%     4.2%     3.3%
Sweden                 -4.3%     1.1%     3.8%     1.5%
Belgium                 -7.9%     1.0%     5.0%     1.1%
Austria                  -6.6%     1.1%     4.3%     1.5%
Nigeria                  -3.3%     2.3%     2.5%     2.5%
Argentina            -10.7%    -1.6%     4.6%     1.5%
Norway                  -4.2%     1.8%     3.6%     1.5%
UAE                       -4.7%     2.5%     2.7%     1.9%
Israel                    -5.5%     3.0%     4.4%     3.2%
Ireland                  -5.1%     2.9%     4.8%     2.8%
HK                        -7.0%     0.1%     4.1%     2.0%
Malaysia                -5.4%     4.0%     6.5%     4.5%
Singapore              -6.2%     1.5%     5.6%     2.0%
South Africa           -8.5%     0.8%     3.3%     1.4%
Philippines             -7.5%     6.2%     7.4%     6.3%
Denmark               -4.3%     1.5%     3.6%     1.5%
Columbia               -6.4%     3.2%     4.5%     3.2%
Egypt                     1.9%     5.5%     2.6%     5.5%
Chile                     -5.8%     1.4%     4.8%     2.5%
Vietnam                 2.6%     6.7%     7.8%     6.7%
Finland                 -4.1%     1.1%     2.9%     1.1%
Czechia                -6.5%     2.1%     4.6%     2.4%
Romania               -4.9%     3.2%     4.2%     2.8%
Portugal               -8.6%     1.5%     5.4%     1.5%
Peru                   -12.3%     3.0%     8.8%     3.4%
Greece                 -8.2%     2.0%     4.9%     1.9%
New Zealand        -5.3%     2.4%     4.7%     2.6%
Hungary               -5.8%     3.3%     4.7%     2.9%
Ukraine                -6.0%     3.2%     4.4%     3.6%

* Data is thin
** India fiscal year is April to March so I and normalize the data using quarterly GDP protections to make it apples to apples
# For PRC I used Jan 2020 GDP estimates for 2020 and 2021 since by Feb is was clear that the virus would have huge economic impact.

As I pointed out in end of August, India's numbers will get worse given the 2020 Q2 numbers and it indeed did.  The economic that gained the most is USA where the recovery is going faster than expected.  

The only economies that will see any real growth this year will be PRC, Vietnam, and Egypt.  Mexico, Argentina, Spain, and Peru will see the worst  absolute economic drop in 2020.  I guess if your country speaks Spanish the economic impact this year will be large.

If you then compute net GDP loss for the 2020-2021 period for each economy between current projections and what the Feb(Jan) 2020 projections looked like for 2020 and 2021.  Doing so and ranking them you get:

ROC                 -0.8%
PRC                  -1.8%
ROK                 -2.5%
Vietnam           -3.2%
Germany          -3.3%
Sweden           -3.3%
Finland            -3.5%
Switzerland      -3.6%
Denmark          -3.9%
Norway            -4.1%
USA                 -4.4%
Singapore        -4.5%
Netherlands      -4.7%
Japan               -4.7%
Canada            -4.9%
Eurozone         -4.9%
Russia             -5.1%
Austria            -5.2%
Chile               -5.2%
Turkey             -5.2%
HK                  -5.3%
World              -5.4%
Belgium           -5.4%
Nigeria            -5.7%
Italy                -5.9%
New Zealand    -5.9%
Australia          -6.0%
France             -6.1%
Poland             -6.3%
UK                  -6.3%
Saudi Arabia    -6.3%
Ireland            -6.4%
Argentina        -6.5%
UAE                -6.6%
Portugal          -6.7%
Czechia           -6.7%
Egypt              -6.8%
Indonesia        -6.8%
Brazil              -7.0%
Romania          -7.0%
Israel              -7.6%
Greece            -7.6%
Hungary          -7.7%
South Africa     -7.7%
Malaysia          -7.9%
Columbia         -8.7%
Ukraine           -8.8%
Thailand          -9.0%
Spain              -9.2%
Mexico            -9.8%
Peru              -11.1%
India             -12.9%
Philippines     -13.5%

The pattern is fairly clear.  Doing the best in term of minimizing impact  at Oriental economies.  After that are the Nordic-Germanic economies.   The superstar economy beyond Oriental and Nordic-Germanic economies is USA.  Non-Oriental Asian emerging economies seems like was hurt the most.  India's numbers I suspect will get worse after the 2020 Q3 numbers comes in so it will be a race between India and Philippines for the bottom.  The good news for India is they mostly gave up on lockdowns and are going for herd immunity while Philippines are still trying on and off this lockdown strategy which is clearly a failure.  
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jfern
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« Reply #143 on: October 01, 2020, 08:14:21 PM »

Worst response probably goes to North Korea.

Have they admitted its existence yet?
It’s North Korea, what do you think?

"The imperialist virus was destroyed by North Korean doctors. The whole world is thanking Kim Jung Un for his glorious leadership in defeating a virus that no one else knew how to defeat."
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #144 on: October 02, 2020, 10:09:44 AM »

Worst response probably goes to North Korea.

Have they admitted its existence yet?
It’s North Korea, what do you think?

"The imperialist virus was destroyed by North Korean doctors. The whole world is thanking Kim Jung Un for his glorious leadership in defeating a virus that no one else knew how to defeat."

You jest, but I bet that's close to the official "line" Tongue
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Samof94
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« Reply #145 on: October 10, 2020, 11:46:45 AM »

Worst response probably goes to North Korea.

Have they admitted its existence yet?
It’s North Korea, what do you think?

"The imperialist virus was destroyed by North Korean doctors. The whole world is thanking Kim Jung Un for his glorious leadership in defeating a virus that no one else knew how to defeat."
There are pictures of average North Koreans wearing masks.
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jaichind
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« Reply #146 on: December 05, 2020, 07:52:17 AM »

Early Dec financial house weighted average Aug GDP chart with a bunch of Eurozone countries individually listed along with some more emerging economies.

                            Dec 20   Feb 20   Dec 21   Feb 20
World                     -3.9%     3.1%     5.1%     3.3%
USA                       -3.6%     1.8%     3.8%     1.9%
Eurozone                -7.4%     1.0%     4.7%     1.3%
PRC                         2.0%    5.9%#   8.2%     5.8%#
Japan                     -5.4%     0.5%     2.7%     0.8%
Germany                -5.5%     0.7%     3.9%     1.2%
India                      -7.8%**  5.7%**  7.7%** 6.5%**
UK                        -11.1%     1.0%     5.1%     1.5%
France                    -9.2%     1.2%     6.0%     1.3%
Italy                       -9.0%     0.4%     5.3%     0.6%
Brazil                     -4.9%     2.2%     3.6%     2.5%
Canada                   -5.8%     1.5%     4.6%     1.8%
Russia                    -3.9%     1.8%     3.0%     1.9%
ROK                       -1.1%     2.2%     3.2%     2.3%
Spain                   -11.7%     1.6%     5.8%     1.6%
Australia                -3.3%     2.1%     3.3%     2.6%
Mexico                   -9.1%     0.9%    3.8%     1.8%
Indonesia               -2.1%     5.0%     4.8%     5.2%
Netherlands            -4.7%     1.5%     3.3%     1.5%
Saudi Arabia           -4.8%     2.3%     3.0%     2.2%
Turkey                   -1.7%     2.8%     4.2%     3.1%
Switzerland            -4.0%     1.2%     3.6%     1.3%
ROC                        1.9%     2.3%     3.6%     2.4%
Poland                   -3.5%     3.3%     3.8%     3.2%
Thailand                -6.5%     2.0%     4.2%     3.3%
Sweden                 -3.8%     1.1%     3.0%     1.5%
Belgium                 -7.7%     1.0%     4.3%     1.1%
Austria                  -6.9%     1.1%     3.8%     1.5%
Nigeria                  -3.6%     2.3%     2.1%     2.5%
Argentina            -11.0%    -1.6%     4.4%     1.5%
Norway                  -3.4%     1.8%     3.2%     1.5%
UAE                       -6.1%     2.5%     2.5%     1.9%
Israel                    -5.0%     3.0%     4.6%     3.2%
Ireland                  -3.2%     2.9%     3.9%     2.8%
HK                        -6.2%     0.1%     4.6%     2.0%
Malaysia                -5.8%     4.0%     6.9%     4.5%
Singapore              -5.9%     1.5%     5.5%     2.0%
South Africa           -8.2%     0.8%     3.6%     1.4%
Philippines             -9.3%     6.2%     7.4%     6.3%
Denmark               -4.1%     1.5%     3.5%     1.5%
Columbia               -7.0%     3.2%     4.8%     3.2%
Egypt                     1.7%     5.5%     3.1%     5.5%
Chile                     -6.0%     1.4%     5.3%     2.5%
Vietnam                 2.7%     6.7%     7.7%     6.7%
Finland                 -3.7%     1.1%     2.6%     1.1%
Czechia                -6.8%     2.1%     3.7%     2.4%
Romania               -5.1%     3.2%     4.2%     2.8%
Portugal               -8.5%     1.5%     5.1%     1.5%
Peru                   -11.9%     3.0%     8.4%     3.4%
Greece                 -8.5%     2.0%     4.4%     1.9%
New Zealand        -5.0%     2.4%     4.5%     2.6%
Hungary               -5.8%     3.3%     4.4%     2.9%
Kazakhstan          -2.0%     3.8        4.0%     4.0%
Ukraine                -5.4%     3.2%     4.0%     3.6%

* Data is thin
** India fiscal year is April to March so I and normalize the data using quarterly GDP protections to make it apples to apples
# For PRC I used Jan 2020 GDP estimates for 2020 and 2021 since by Feb is was clear that the virus would have huge economic impact.

Advanced European numbers got better for 2020 but worse for 2021 as the latest wave of lockdowns will most likely hurt 2021 growth.  Emerging economies seems to have gotten worse for 2020 but slightly better for 2021.  UK clearly got hurt the most out of this latest round of projection updates. USA and Turkey clearly got better for 2020 and 2021.

The only economies that will see any real growth this year will be PRC, ROC, Vietnam, and Egypt.   Oriental economies like ROC, HK  and even Japan saw significant improvement on the backs of a clear PRC recovery.

If you then compute net GDP loss for the 2020-2021 period for each economy between current projections and what the Feb(Jan) 2020 projections looked like for 2020 and 2021.  Doing so and ranking them you get:

ROC                  0.8%
PRC                  -1.7%
ROK                 -2.5%
Switzerland       -3.1%
Vietnam           -3.2%
Finland             -3.4%
Sweden            -3.5%
Turkey             -3.6%
Norway            -3.6%
USA                 -3.7%
Germany          -3.7%
Denmark          -3.8%
HK                   -4.0%
Japan               -4.1%
Singapore        -4.3%
Netherlands      -4.6%
Russia             -4.8%
Canada            -4.8%
Australia          -4.9%
Chile               -5.0%
Italy                -5.2%
Ireland            -5.3%
Eurozone         -5.4%
World              -5.5%
New Zealand    -5.8%
Belgium           -5.8%
Austria            -6.0%
Kazakhstan      -6.0%
Brazil              -6.2%
France             -6.3%
Nigeria            -6.4%
Poland             -6.4%
Egypt              -6.4%
Saudi Arabia    -6.5%
Portugal          -6.9%
Israel              -6.9%
Argentina        -7.0%
South Africa     -7.1%
Romania          -7.2%
Indonesia        -7.9%
Czechia           -7.9%
Thailand          -7.0%
Hungary          -8.0%
Malaysia          -8.0%
UAE                -8.2%
Mexico            -8.4%
Greece            -8.4%
Ukraine           -8.5%
Columbia         -9.0%
UK                  -9.1%
Spain              -9.8%
Peru              -11.0%
India             -13.3%
Philippines     -15.5%

The pattern is fairly clear.  Doing the best in term of minimizing impact  at Oriental economies.  After that are the Nordic-Germanic economies.   The superstar economy beyond Oriental and Nordic-Germanic economies is Turkey and USA.  Another superstar is ROC which now will have GAINED in absolute economic terms relative to projections in early 2020.  In other words COVID-19 HELPED ROC economically in absolute terms.  Non-Oriental Asian emerging economies seems like was hurt the most although Latin American economies seems also hard hit.  UK and Spain are particularly bad since they are at the bottom as an advanced economy as their peers more up in the middle of the pack.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #147 on: December 11, 2020, 06:56:12 AM »
« Edited: December 11, 2020, 07:06:14 AM by ByeDon/Harris »

I'd say Germany has dropped significantly in this regard simply because the COVID response has become totally incoherent and incomprehensible.

Merkel and the leaders of the 16 states don't agree on much anymore. The leader of the 16 states don't agree with each other anymore. Individual state leaders change their opinions from one week to the next. Everybody agrees that coherent nation-wide rules make the best sense, but agreements on how such rules should look like in practice have seemingly become impossible or they last only for a couple of days at best. Saxony has become the state with the highest infection rates by far, but at the same they were also one of the few states to still allow keeping the hotels open for Christmas season. You have certain social distancing rules in place one week, and completely different ones the week after. Everybody should social distance, except for children until 14 years (12 in some states).

"While the COVID situation is getting more serious, we should nonetheless allow people to come together for Christmas and New Year's Eve" -> Two weeks later: "We must reverse this decision ASAP".

"While the COVID situation is getting more serious, we should let the Black Friday sales go forward this year" -> Two weeks later: "We must shut down all the retail stores for at least three weeks."
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Samof94
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« Reply #148 on: December 11, 2020, 08:21:01 AM »

Canada is starting to look more like a less severe version of America in its response as it is rapidly slipping, especially in Quebec and Ontario.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #149 on: December 11, 2020, 10:11:03 AM »

Cases in Uruguay are exploding after months of being touted as a success story in South America.
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