Wisconsin Supreme Court 2020: Who Will Win?

[Nyvin]

Kelly will easily win. Data shows that Republicans don't consider the virus to be as much of a deal as Democrats do. Democrats won't turn out on election day, Republicans will. The state and national supreme courts have both voted on partisan lines to hold the election as scheduled specifically because it benefits Republicans. Democrats on both courts dissented specifically because it's dangerous

Fixed.

I think the Republican's tactics really have won them this judge seat.   It's really a shame.

[Dr. Arch]

So, we won't be seeing any results until 4/13?

[brucejoel99]

So, we won't be seeing any results until 4/13?

As of right now, yes, that's correct.

[Gass3268]

People still in line in Milwaukee as of 25 minutes ago:

https://twitter.com/CorriHess/status/1247695442814607365?s=20

[Dr. Arch]

People still in line in Milwaukee as of 25 minutes ago:

https://twitter.com/CorriHess/status/1247695442814607365?s=20

This is despicable.

[MasterJedi]

Yeah, shame on Tom Barrett for closing those polling places

Should have dragged in all the Republican politicians from the burbs and rural areas to work the polls. Nobody to work the polls so only 5, best punishment for them would be to make them go to the north side and work the polls.

[Badger]

Yeah, shame on Tom Barrett for closing those polling places

So it was Tom Barrett her reduce the number of polling places in Milwaukee till like 5? Not the ruling of the conservative majority on the US Supreme Court?

What a disingenuous post.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Yeah, shame on Tom Barrett for closing those polling places

So it was Tom Barrett her reduce the number of polling places in Milwaukee till like 5? Not the ruling of the conservative majority on the US Supreme Court?

What a disingenuous post.

The US Supreme Court closed polling places in Milwaukee? Please elaborate.

The polls were closed because there were not enough poll workers.
But of course you knew that.

[ElectionsGuy]

Last-minute comment: Sticking with my earlier prediction of 51-49 Karofksy (not sure if I shared it here or elsewhere). Wouldn't be that surprised for a decent win either. If the liberals were going to win a supreme court seat, this would be the time to do it. If Kelly wins by a lot (>5%) then I think we can have a discussion on whether Wisconsin is a true swing state, but I doubt that happens.

Oh, and sorry for those of you who didn't get to vote (I ended the poll on April 7th thinking the results would be known then).

[windjammer]

Last-minute comment: Sticking with my earlier prediction of 51-49 Karofksy (not sure if I shared it here or elsewhere). Wouldn't be that surprised for a decent win either. If the liberals were going to win a supreme court seat, this would be the time to do it. If Kelly wins by a lot (>5%) then I think we can have a discussion on whether Wisconsin is a true swing state, but I doubt that happens.

Oh, and sorry for those of you who didn't get to vote (I ended the poll on April 7th thinking the results would be known then).

Honestly I don't think this election should be used for any electoral analysis. You have at the same time a competitive primary and coronavirus. A large dem win, a large rep win or a close election would mean absolutely nothing.

(however you're right about Wisconsin, definitely not part of the blue wall anymore, more a tilt rep state moving to the lean rep direction)

[voice_of_resistance]

the power of voter suppression and union-gutting. takes a naturally purple to light-blue state and alters the electorate

[here2view]

Kelly will easily win.

So easily he lost by double digits

[bagelman]

Kelly will easily win.

So easily he lost by double digits

I was just being defeatist, it was hard not to be when you remember 2019 and look at how there was only 5 polling stations in all Milwaukee. If you want to gloat, direct it at someone who would've actually supported Kelly.

[ElectionsGuy]

The state certified the election results yesterday. Here is a turnout increase map from 2016 Dem primary to 2020 Dem primary. Color shading is in 5 percent increments (lightest shade of red is 0 to -5%, then -5 to 10%, etc)

Statewide: -8.2%



Increase
Decrease

Most counties are within the 0 to -20% range, however the WOW counties jump out...

Waukesha - 20.9% increase
Ozaukee - 18.4% increase
Washington - 15.0% increase

There is a multitude of evidence from many states that black turnout is actually down from 2016 primaries, whereas white liberal and suburbanite turnout is way up, and that couldn't be more exemplified here as well (with or without COVID-19, it's plainly obvious)

Dane - 2.4% increase
Milwaukee - 21.5% decrease (only 5 counties have a larger decrease)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The state certified the election results yesterday. Here is a turnout increase map from 2016 Dem primary to 2020 Dem primary. Color shading is in 5 percent increments (lightest shade of red is 0 to -5%, then -5 to 10%, etc)

Statewide: -8.2%



Increase
Decrease

Most counties are within the 0 to -20% range, however the WOW counties jump out...

Waukesha - 20.9% increase
Ozaukee - 18.4% increase
Washington - 15.0% increase

There is a multitude of evidence from many states that black turnout is actually down from 2016 primaries, whereas white liberal and suburbanite turnout is way up, and that couldn't be more exemplified here as well (with or without COVID-19, it's plainly obvious)

Dane - 2.4% increase
Milwaukee - 21.5% decrease (only 5 counties have a larger decrease)

Dems making inroads in WOW is incredible.

[Politician]

What's with those rural counties (Iron, Polk, St. Croix, and Door) increasing Dem turnout?

[DINGO Joe]

What's with those rural counties (Iron, Polk, St. Croix, and Door) increasing Dem turnout?

Polk and St. Croix are actually ex-urban Twin Cities.  Door is high end retirement/vacation country. 

Suburbia and higher income retirement locales had a history all primary season of having the best turnout improvements for the Ds

Iron is a random outlier

[Gass3268]

What's with those rural counties (Iron, Polk, St. Croix, and Door) increasing Dem turnout?

Polk and St. Croix are actually ex-urban Twin Cities.  Door is high end retirement/vacation country. 

Suburbia and higher income retirement locales had a history all primary season of having the best turnout improvements for the Ds

Iron is a random outlier

Yeah, lots of transplants from the Chicagoland in Door County.

Iron County used to be as Democratic, if not more so, than Ashland, Bayfield, and Douglas. At one point one could make the argument that it was the most Democratic county in the state. Other than 1972 it voted Democratic every year from 1928 to 2000. While only 12.6% Finnish in the 2010 Census, this number was much higher in the past. I'm not sure if the decrease is do people leaving the county or folks losing sight of their Finnish heritage and calling themselves German due to the overreaching culture of the state. That said, the political leanings of Finnish Americans in Wisconsin and generally nationwide (look across the border into Michigan) was very left, even to the point of socialist tendencies. This has waned over time and maybe there is a slight return back to Democrats?

[Nhoj]

What's with those rural counties (Iron, Polk, St. Croix, and Door) increasing Dem turnout?

Polk and St. Croix are actually ex-urban Twin Cities.  Door is high end retirement/vacation country. 

Suburbia and higher income retirement locales had a history all primary season of having the best turnout improvements for the Ds

Iron is a random outlier

Yeah, lots of transplants from the Chicagoland in Door County.

Iron County used to be as Democratic, if not more so, than Ashland, Bayfield, and Douglas. At one point one could make the argument that it was the most Democratic county in the state. Other than 1972 it voted Democratic every year from 1928 to 2000. While only 12.6% Finnish in the 2010 Census, this number was much higher in the past. I'm not sure if the decrease is do people leaving the county or folks losing sight of their Finnish heritage and calling themselves German due to the overreaching culture of the state. That said, the political leanings of Finnish Americans in Wisconsin and generally nationwide (look across the border into Michigan) was very left, even to the point of socialist tendencies. This has waned over time and maybe there is a slight return back to Democrats?

Iron county as its name suggests was a old mining area[also logging] and in addition to the Finns there is also  a bunch of Italians and poles around.  I don't think anyone is losing heritage and calling themselves German [perhaps they are calling themselves American which is up to 6% in 2010] But rather outside of Hurley and the old mining towns most of the county is like anywhere else in the northwoods with lakes and cabins attracting people from down south and the local population slowly moving away or dying.  One factor for swings however could be that this was the area where Walker was claiming a mine would get built, which of course never materialized. So perhaps some small number of people who bought into that have now swung back.

As a side note Hurley is a notorious hive of scum and villainy going back to at least the 20s with al capone's brother residing in the area until he died there in 1974! Currently the only remaining industry there is a bunch of strip clubs

[SnowLabrador]

Well, this poll aged well.