OH-Sen: DeWine by 9

[Moooooo]

Rasmussen:

Ohio Senate
Mike DeWine (R)    46%
Sherrod Brown (D)    37%

[Galactic Overlord]

Hmmm...interesting.  He's still below 50%, on the other hand it's an improvement over polls that showed Brown actually leading or with a small deficit.

[TheresNoMoney]

Brown has taken a little bit of a hit because of the Hackett debacle. Last poll Brown was only down 5%.

DeWine is still quite vulnerable if Brown can run a strong campaign.

[Virginian87]

Brown needs to step up his campaign efforts, but I'm beginning to wonder if we can even pick up this seat.

[Ben.]

DeWine will win

With Brown nine points behind DeWine even before the campaign just provides further evidence than DeWine will probably win quite handily.

The fact that he’s bellow 50% will worry the GOP but it’s probably largely because DeWine is viewed in a fairly lukewarm light by most Ohio voters and that the campaign on either the Dem or GOP side hasn’t even begun.

Brown on the other hand can take very little comfort from this poll he’s nine points behind an incumbent who’s hardly inspiring voters in an “off year” election where the Dems should have the edge after scandal both for the GOP at the state and the national level.

Yet more worryingly it’s likely that most voters simply consider the name “Sherrod Brown” to suggest some generic Dem who they can vaguely recalled held some state-wide office… when the GOP and DeWine campaign start pounding Brown over his voting record that perception is going to potentially become a whole lot more negative and more sharply defined.

In contrast while the DeWine campaign can credibly cast their man as a moderate Republican, if an uninspiring one it will be very hard for the Brown campaign to challenge the perception of their own candidate that the GOP will seek to establish, namely as a pretty radical liberal. I’d expect the Brown campaign to go very negative very early and for the DeWine campaign to pretty much be able to marginalise Brown secure the GOP base in the face a decidedly liberal Dem opponent and at the same time appeal to moderates/independents as the consensual moderate candidate.                

I think in the end DeWine is going to win this by more than a lot of folks seem to think…to tell the truth I’d be worried if I was Ted Strickland’s campaign with Brown on the same ballot. The most realistic scenario is that after this election, what ever happens in the gubernatorial race (and I’m still pretty sure that we’ll see Strickland scrap home), Tim Ryan will be the defacto standard bearer of the Ohio Democratic Party and the 2010 Senate nomination will be his for the taking… while Brown will be a political joke.  

PS: It probably also worth noting that DeWine has twice the cash which Brown does while in the same poll 55% of Dems expect him to be re-elected and only 69% of the same Dems currently intend to vote for Brown (down from 77% in the last poll). At this rate it really will not be long before its going to folly to continue to consider the race a “tossup” – my suggestion to the Ohio Democratic Party concentrate all you efforts on the Strickland campaign and aim to employ the Brown campaign simply help generate a good liberal turnout for Strickland.

[Virginian87]

Ryan should have been the nominee in the first place.  Any Democrat who gets an A rating from the NRA is a freedom fighter in my book.

[Ben.]

Ryan should have been the nominee in the first place.  Any Democrat who gets an A rating from the NRA is a freedom fighter in my book.

Ryan’s biggest problem would have been cash and he himself has privately given that as his reason for not entering the race, what’s more there’s likely to be an open race in 2010 and why not use 2006 to destroy your main competitor (Brown) as a political force and establish your self as one of the leading Democrats in the state four years out… making the Senate nomination (effectively) yours for the taking.

Had he run Ryan would probably have been leading in the polls but cash and the advantages of incumbency would have been big challenges, challenges that after two more terms in office and potentially four years as one of the top Democratic office holders in the state won’t exist in an open senate race in 2010.           

[Defarge]

Ouch.

I had money on Dewine losing too .

[Ben.]

Ouch.

I had money on Dewine losing too .

He was never going to lose to Brown, Hackett at a long shot and had Ryan or Strickland been the nominee DeWine could very well have been in deep trouble but against Brown? No chance and there never was.

A solid moderate, if uninspiring, incumbent senator will not lose to a partisan radical congressman expect in a very good year for that challenger’s party and consequently DeWine won’t lose and was never going to against a candidate like Brown.     

[Galactic Overlord]

The key to this race would have been gunowners.  Ryan could compete for them.  Hackett could compete for them.  Brown, for his part, won't be in contention.  DeWine would look better pretty much by default (the NRA is no fan of him either).

Strickland won't necessarily have that problem, being from SE Ohio.  His task will be to grab Brown's coattails in Cleveland to get a large margin to overcome Blackwell's advantage in Cincinnati (He wins Hamilton County with 70%+ compared to Bush's 52% in 2004) and the Clermont-Butler-Warren suburban counties in the SW.

[Rococo4]

I dont think gun owners win Ryan this seat. But we will never know.

[Ben.]

I dont think gun owners win Ryan this seat. But we will never know.

True but he by far the strongest state-wide candidate for the Dems in the state and while his congressional district isn't reliant on gun owners he's still pro-gun and a moderate on social issues when he could, if he was minded, simply imitate Kucinich and Brown from a safe Dem base.

[adam]

Hm..Intresting. This is rathe rout of the blue considering that all of the previous polls showed Brown beating DeWine soundly. Any ideas on why the sudden swing?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a February poll not a recent poll.

[adam]

This is a February poll not a recent poll.

Oops. Well I am an idiot...I should really pay more attention to the dates on things.

[MarkWarner08]

Well, we all see how this turned out.

Damn it, man! Why did you bring back this old thread? I thought this was a new poll. GRRHH!!!!!

[Deano963]

Well, we all see how this turned out.

Dude....james.....you almost gave me a heart attack bumping this thread. Not cool.

Ahhhhhhhh who am I kidding - reading all of those quotes from Ben was hilarious!

[poughies]

Boy that liberal hippie Brown has no chance...... oh wait..... my bad.

[Smash255]

Well, we all see how this turned out.

Dude....james.....you almost gave me a heart attack bumping this thread. Not cool.

Ahhhhhhhh who am I kidding - reading all of those quotes from Ben was hilarious!

^^^^^^^^

[Eraserhead]

You guys are wild. Now how do we get this thing off this page? lol