COVID-19 Megathread 3: Third time's a charm

[Florida Man for Crime]

Italy is reporting a lower # of new cases. However, they are also reporting fewer tests. Why is testing decreasing? How much of the decrease in cases is due to less testing, and how much is due to the actual # of infections going down?

Mar 30: 23,329 tests, 4,050 new cases
Mar 29: 24,504 tests, 5,217 new cases
Mar 28: 35,447 tests, 5,974 new cases

[Gass3268]

What a real crisis bump looks like:

[ON Progressive]

Italy is reporting a lower # of new cases. However, they are also reporting fewer tests. Why is testing decreasing? How much of the decrease in cases is due to less testing, and how much is due to the actual # of infections going down?

Mar 30: 23,329 tests, 4,050 new cases
Mar 29: 24,504 tests, 5,217 new cases
Mar 28: 35,447 tests, 5,974 new cases

Maybe positive test rates can give us an idea?
March 28 - 16.85%
March 29 - 21.29%
March 30 - 17.36%

[lfromnj]

Jacobin America(claimed libertarian socialist but we know all commies are tankies at hearts) told me that the CCP was really helpful though.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-taiwan-who-idUSKBN21H1AU?utm_source=reddit.com

[parochial boy]

Italy is reporting a lower # of new cases. However, they are also reporting fewer tests. Why is testing decreasing? How much of the decrease in cases is due to less testing, and how much is due to the actual # of infections going down?

Mar 30: 23,329 tests, 4,050 new cases
Mar 29: 24,504 tests, 5,217 new cases
Mar 28: 35,447 tests, 5,974 new cases

Considering what the Italian testing regime has been over the last few weeks, fewer very seriously ill people turning up with symptoms meaning fewer tests is probably the most convincing explanation.

[Tintrlvr]

Italy is reporting a lower # of new cases. However, they are also reporting fewer tests. Why is testing decreasing? How much of the decrease in cases is due to less testing, and how much is due to the actual # of infections going down?

Mar 30: 23,329 tests, 4,050 new cases
Mar 29: 24,504 tests, 5,217 new cases
Mar 28: 35,447 tests, 5,974 new cases

I think Italy just tests less on the weekends (there's a one-day lag in reporting figures). It looks like last weekend had a similar drop in testing (or at least there was a drop in reported cases followed by a rise early in the next week).

[HisGrace]

Also June 1st is the new Easter:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1244386931426889728?s=20

Honestly, Trump is being smart here for once. If you have a set end date people are going to be more likely to follow the rules you lay out even if you have to extend them later. Whereas if you lead off by saying people have to stay home "indefinitely" and "it could be 18 months" they'll get frustrated and break the rules.

[GP270watch]

Also June 1st is the new Easter:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1244386931426889728?s=20

Honestly, Trump is being smart here for once. If you have a set end date people are going to be more likely to follow the rules you lay out even if you have to extend them later. Whereas if you lead off by saying people have to stay home "indefinitely" and "it could be 18 months" they'll get frustrated and break the rules.

 He isn't being smart giving people false hope. People should have the most relevant information no matter how sobering. If you tell people we'll be back in business by May and they budget accordingly you're leaving them holding the bag. People should know that the situation is tenuous and fluid and to prepare accordingly. Also Congress should get back to work on some kind of UBI or taking on payrolls if we have an extended shutdown as other countries did.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JDeleon1012/status/1244675276510035968

This is going to be an interesting church vs. state case.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That Siena poll has de Blaise with a 61% approval rating in NYC.

[FrancoAgo]

Italy is reporting a lower # of new cases. However, they are also reporting fewer tests. Why is testing decreasing? How much of the decrease in cases is due to less testing, and how much is due to the actual # of infections going down?

Mar 30: 23,329 tests, 4,050 new cases
Mar 29: 24,504 tests, 5,217 new cases
Mar 28: 35,447 tests, 5,974 new cases

already yesterday i replied that the tests date for the 29th missed the Emilia Romagna, the today date are more strange the Emilia Romagna number is -2,001

[FrancoAgo]

the Clinton loss with a 48-46 in popular vote,  Biden a no hope, if this poll is right

[Bidenworth2020]

Also June 1st is the new Easter:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1244386931426889728?s=20

Honestly, Trump is being smart here for once. If you have a set end date people are going to be more likely to follow the rules you lay out even if you have to extend them later. Whereas if you lead off by saying people have to stay home "indefinitely" and "it could be 18 months" they'll get frustrated and break the rules.

I agree. It is SO important the Trump provides hope that we will be out of this soon and be back to normal, even if it is unrealistic. You can always adjust the timeline, but telling people to stay locked up indefinitely is just going to make people anxious.

[roxas11]

the Clinton loss with a 48-46 in popular vote,  Biden a no hope, if this poll is right

Correction trump has no hope, if this poll is right because if a president is below 50 percent on election day........he is not getting reelected

1.Hillary was facing A candidate that people were willing to take a chance on back in 2016
2.Biden is facing a President that independent voters are going to mostly likely vote against on election day because In recently elections they always break against the president and his party.  
 

Plus this time around the Dems are not sitting this one out and also trump numbers on the economy is going to radically change as we head into this upcoming recession  

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JulieCareyNBC/status/1244686628398018567

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

What a real crisis bump looks like:

Curiously, that is the exact same bump (44%—>71%) that Giuseppe Conte got in an Italian poll last week.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates

Millions of Americans already have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus crisis and the worst of the damage is yet to come, according to a Federal Reserve estimate.

Economists at the Fed’s St. Louis district project total employment reductions of 47 million, which would translate to a 32.1% unemployment rate, according to a recent analysis of how bad things could get.

The projections are even worse than St. Louis Fed President James Bullard’s much-publicized estimate of 30%. They reflect the high nature of at-risk jobs that ultimately could be lost to a government-induced economic freeze aimed at halting the coronavirus spread.

“These are very large numbers by historical standards, but this is a rather unique shock that is unlike any other experienced by the U.S. economy in the last 100 years,” St. Louis Fed economist Miguel Faria-e-Castro wrote in a research paper posted last week.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

https://twitter.com/JulieCareyNBC/status/1244686628398018567

JUNE???

[T'Chenka]

https://twitter.com/JulieCareyNBC/status/1244686628398018567

JUNE???

The public might get angry about it, but it's a needed move. Maybe they should've said May and then later on announced an extension until Jume, to keep citizens from going crazy and rebelling.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/JulieCareyNBC/status/1244686628398018567

JUNE???

True, realistically the virus won't go away by June and restrictions will need to remain in place beyond then. Although we may be able to go through a cycle of temporarily lifting them for a short while and then putting them back in place as new cases start to grow again.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

As I wrote before, cfr should be about the same in most western countries, which suggests that Italy already has 1-2 mln cases and US 0.5-1 mln.

That would suggest that Lombardy has already reached ~10-20%.

According to this study, ~10% of Italy population is already infected which would probably translate into ~30% in Lombardy, I suppose.

For Spain it is 15%. Unfortunately, they didn't estimate US #.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1244674754939887616


If it's true, then I think, that the real CFR is way under 1%, perhaps ~0.1-0.5%


The caveat is similar to all the studies of Corona. Uncertainty is huge due to various assumption and lack of data.

[Storr]

What a real crisis bump looks like:

Cuomentum.

[Mr. Reactionary]

https://twitter.com/JulieCareyNBC/status/1244686628398018567

JUNE???

The public might get angry about it, but it's a needed move. Maybe they should've said May and then later on announced an extension until Jume, to keep citizens from going crazy and rebelling.

He literally just said it was still ok to go to golf courses ... guess thats essential.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I hope China shuts down the live markets for ever after this
Moral of the story- Don't eat bat soup

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If anyone wants it extended into June, a face should be laughed in.