COVID-19 Megathread 3: Third time's a charm

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AnnaESanders/status/1244036929865342977

[7,052,770]

How many deaths do you think we are going to actually see? 500,000? A million? Two million? Or more?

I can't speak for anyone else, but assuming a 20% infection rate and 1% deaths among the infected (neither of those assumptions being particularly pessimistic) gets to around 600,000 deaths in America. I'm not necessarily predicting it will go that high, but it's definitely plausible, especially when lots of areas still aren't taking this seriously.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I'm no constitutional scholar obviously but wouldn't the 9th and 10th amendments have something to say about the orange idiot locking down anything?

He'll just say that Article 2 gives him the power to do it, and all the Banana Republicans will fall in line. (Unless they've fallen over dead first, of course.)

[GoTfan]

How many deaths do you think we are going to actually see? 500,000? A million? Two million? Or more?

I can't speak for anyone else, but assuming a 20% infection rate and 1% deaths among the infected (neither of those assumptions being particularly pessimistic) gets to around 600,000 deaths in America. I'm not necessarily predicting it will go that high, but it's definitely plausible, especially when lots of areas still aren't taking this seriously.

Which is why I'm ending it tonight.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

There is at least bread in my close supermarket again. Soup, toilet paper, and hand sanitizer are still gone, but plenty of bread. Hopefully, hoarders got all the toilet paper they needed and when it returns they won't buy 999999 rolls again.

[Calthrina950]

How many deaths do you think we are going to actually see? 500,000? A million? Two million? Or more?

I can't speak for anyone else, but assuming a 20% infection rate and 1% deaths among the infected (neither of those assumptions being particularly pessimistic) gets to around 600,000 deaths in America. I'm not necessarily predicting it will go that high, but it's definitely plausible, especially when lots of areas still aren't taking this seriously.

You're certainly right about that. At my job today, I had a customer who expressed their surprise at how many people were out. The store was somewhat less busy than it usually is on Saturdays, but there were still a considerable number of people about. And my fellow cashiers still were not wearing gloves. I am starting to notice an increasing number of people wearing masks, although it is still a minority.

[It’s so Joever]

How many deaths do you think we are going to actually see? 500,000? A million? Two million? Or more?

I can't speak for anyone else, but assuming a 20% infection rate and 1% deaths among the infected (neither of those assumptions being particularly pessimistic) gets to around 600,000 deaths in America. I'm not necessarily predicting it will go that high, but it's definitely plausible, especially when lots of areas still aren't taking this seriously.

Which is why I'm ending it tonight.

Are you being serious?

[Crumpets]

Imagine telling someone at Hillary's election night party at the Javits Center in 2016 that, 3.5 years later, not only would Trump be President, but that the place where they were standing would be a makeshift overflow hospital because of the huge number of illnesses and deaths across New York.

[It’s so Joever]

I think about 500,000 people will die. I am guessing that eventually, we will take it seriously enough to really fight it, but if nothing changed from here on out, about 1-2 million people would die.

[Progressive Pessimist]

How many deaths do you think we are going to actually see? 500,000? A million? Two million? Or more?

I can't speak for anyone else, but assuming a 20% infection rate and 1% deaths among the infected (neither of those assumptions being particularly pessimistic) gets to around 600,000 deaths in America. I'm not necessarily predicting it will go that high, but it's definitely plausible, especially when lots of areas still aren't taking this seriously.

Which is why I'm ending it tonight.

Are you being serious?

Yeah, I really hope he's joking (it's not funny though). Especially with what I know about his past.

[GP270watch]

Imagine telling someone at Hillary's election night party at the Javits Center in 2016 that, 3.5 years later, not only would Trump be President, but that the place where they were standing would be a makeshift overflow hospital because of the huge number of illnesses and deaths across New York.

Yeah, that's crazy to think about.

[TJ in Oregon]

New Gallup poll has Americans approving of the handling of coronavirus by virtually everyone except the media:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/300680/coronavirus-response-hospitals-rated-best-news-media-worst.aspx

Even Congress gets a 59/37 Approval

The media is underwater at 44/55.

Interestingly Republicans more approving across the board, except for the media, including institutions such as hospitals and government health agencies. Possibly due to Trump being in power, or perhaps due to the narrative about socialized medicine vs the US system.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I agree that the media is no help. It's a hindrance.

[It’s so Joever]

If there is one good thing about this epidemic the “blame the media for everything” narrative may subside a bit once this **** kills hundreds of thousands.

[Hammy]

New Gallup poll has Americans approving of the handling of coronavirus by virtually everyone except the media:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/300680/coronavirus-response-hospitals-rated-best-news-media-worst.aspx

Even Congress gets a 59/37 Approval

The media is underwater at 44/55.

Interestingly Republicans more approving across the board, except for the media, including institutions such as hospitals and government health agencies. Possibly due to Trump being in power, or perhaps due to the narrative about socialized medicine vs the US system.

Notice the poll is March 13-22--before all hell broke loose and Trump started threatening to open the country back up indefinitely all while telling places hardest hit he wont give them supplies because he doesn't believe them.

As I've stated in previous posts, if what Trump had claimed he'd do at the time had actually been followed, then we would've at least had a half way competent response.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1243891663162019841


Not sure why they'd wait 10 days

Is the point to stop infected people from spreading?

[Green Line]

https://twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1243891663162019841


Not sure why they'd wait 10 days

Is the point to stop infected people from spreading?

There is no point to anything the government (or any state) is doing right now.  They’re flailing  and have no vision beyond the next week.  There is absolutely no plan for an endgame.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/28 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28 (Today):

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

[Florida Man for Crime]

Trump Science

https://twitter.com/kennwhite/status/1243153347001147392

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1243891663162019841


Not sure why they'd wait 10 days

Is the point to stop infected people from spreading?

There is no point to anything the government (or any state) is doing right now.  They’re flailing  and have no vision beyond the next week.  There is absolutely no plan for an endgame.

I don't accept that, but fine my question then is what is the point in their minds.

[Green Line]

https://twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1243891663162019841


Not sure why they'd wait 10 days

Is the point to stop infected people from spreading?

There is no point to anything the government (or any state) is doing right now.  They’re flailing  and have no vision beyond the next week.  There is absolutely no plan for an endgame.

I don't accept that, but fine my question then is what is the point in their minds.

They dont have one

[Gass3268]

Florida is getting whatever it wants, blue states not so much:

https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/1244053944554401800?s=20

This is criminal...

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1244056559577071616

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Update on stats from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Looking at the case graphs over the last week, the USA started later in the race, then really put the foot on the accelerator resulting in an unprecedented spread of the virus.

In terms of growth measured purely from "Active Cases" we have:



Whilst no European country has reached the top of the 'Active Case' curve (or in my interpretation, a real drop in growth commensurate with a drop in growth near the top of the curve), there are a couple of countries including Italy (21 March) and Spain (26 March) which have come down slightly from a maximum rate of growth.

The USA has been a standout in growth with a rapid ascent up the 'Active Case' curve due to accelerated growth as highlighted:



Countries will not appear at the top of the 'Active Case' curve (green bars above) until those growth lines (solid blue) go down through zero. China, South Korea have already passed that point.

Looking at the Storebought Affluenza Index, we see an increase in infection rates in wealthier countries as the pandemic continues.


Graph of Corona Virus Infection Rate against Wealth (per person)

Looking at a smaller scale in Australia.

Australia now has the highest testing rate on the planet (higher than South Korea) with an average positive return rate of 1.7%. As such, the statistics are showing an elevated infection rate in the wealthier suburbs of our capital cities. In particular, NSW and VIC most prestigious suburbs are suffering the highest rates of COVID-19 infection.

In NSW, the harbour-side suburbs are showing the highest infection rates.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/coronavirus-sydney-eastern-suburbs-sees-concentration-of-cases/12096790

In Victoria, the area of Stonnington is by far the wealthiest part of Melbourne.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/6zBkG/1/?abcnewsembedheight=680

Wealthy travellers have returned from overseas, gone to the local Doctor, and that location becomes a point of infection.

Also, a lot of transmission in these suburbs through weddings, birthday parties and other large scale gatherings of people who don't see social isolation procedures and protocols as necessary.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1243891663162019841


Not sure why they'd wait 10 days

Is the point to stop infected people from spreading?

There is no point to anything the government (or any state) is doing right now.  They’re flailing  and have no vision beyond the next week.  There is absolutely no plan for an endgame.

I don't accept that, but fine my question then is what is the point in their minds.

They dont have one

Come on now. 🙄

It was a serious question. I think the answer is yes.