COVID-19 Megathread 3: Third time's a charm

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1243356851858632705

 Where has Trump built these Hospitals?

 I know the Army Corps of Engineers is installing tents for overflow and morgues and planning to re-purpose hotels for logistics but where are these hospitals Trump has built?

 

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1243346211563765761

Aaaaand the future Frontline episode condemning the Trump administration for countless additional lives unnecessarily lost continues to write itself.

[T'Chenka]

To break the massive wall of text here....we are so screwed

https://twitter.com/bad_takes/status/1243356330951204864?s=09

https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1243346211563765761

Aaaaand the future Frontline episode condemning the Trump administration for countless additional lives unnecessarily lost continues to write itself.

Between these two things and (sadly) the imminent pile of dead bodies in NYC, Biden is having this elevtion handed to him on a platter IMO if he plays it correctly.

October election ad - play the audio clip of Trump implying the hospitals are crazy to ask for so many ventilators while visually showing the sick and dying people in a non-graphic way, show the funerals and obituaries, and finally show Cuomo's endorsement of Biden.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

For the first time in like 3 weeks, there isn't an Orange or Red county on the Kinsa healthweather map in Florida

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1243395633081274376

[roxas11]

Im going to attempt to do the impossible and Play devils advocate for President Trump

As many of you on here already know Trump is your classic narcissistic
He needs for people to constantly praise him at all times and tell him how awesome he is.
Kim and Putin have already picked up on this because They know all they have to do is say a few nice words to the guy and he gives them everything they could ever ask for

Maybe its time our governors start having that same mentality
Im not saying they have to like it but I think they should all get on the phone right now and Give trump whatever BS praise he is asking for in order to get what they can out of him.

hell if I was governor I would tell him he is the greatest president since Lincoln if he would shut up and give my state everything it needs lol

Not let me be clear about this The Governors and mayors should not have to do this but if helps save lives and get them the resources they need then it is worth it in the end

[Sbane]

To break the massive wall of text here....we are so screwed

https://twitter.com/bad_takes/status/1243356330951204864?s=09

It's going to be horrible beyond what we can really comprehend even now, but the end result is that the dead are going to disproportionately be GOP voters (elderly, male, rural).

The total death toll of this is going to be in line with most flu seasons.

Numerous studies have shown death rates of less than 0.5%, perhaps only 0.2-0.3%.  Influenza is estimated at 0.1%.  The R2 value is also probably slightly higher than influenza, but not drastically so.  On the other hand, we took much more drastic measures than we do for the flu, so the death toll from the virus will go down.  Now, I think that the drastic measures will probably only take us from ~100K to ~50K deaths, so I do think that it is very much a question whether more than 50K people will die indirectly from the measures we took (mental health, loss of economic prosperity, overdoses, fewer people donating blood, etc.).

It is very much a debate we need to be having about whether it was worth it to shut down society like we did over a disease slightly worse than influenza.  It's hard to fault the initial response because of the massive degree of unknowns about the virus, but I strongly suspect that analysis after this is over will show that we overreacted mostly because we vastly overestimated the death rate by underestimating the number of asymptomatic or barely symptomatic carriers.

We have to slow the spread of this illness. It overwhelms hospital systems wherever there is an outbreak. Just look at what is happening in New York City right now. That will be occurring in the rest of the country fairly soon and the federal government is barely able to keep up with the needs of New York. There aren't enough ventilators to go around, and neither is there enough PPE to protect health care workers. Michigan needs medical supplies but theirs is getting diverted to New York, even though there is an outbreak going on in Detroit. This will only get worse if we do not socially isolate and stay home for at least two weeks, if not longer. It might have a kill rate of "only" 0.9%, but that is only if we are able to prevent overwhelming the hospital system. You only do that by flattening the curve.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Im going to attempt to do the impossible and Play devils advocate for President Trump

As many of you on here already know Trump is your classic narcissistic
He needs for people to constantly praise him at all times and tell him how awesome he is.
Kim and Putin have already picked up on this because They know all they have to do is say a few nice words to the guy and he gives them everything they could ever ask for

Maybe its time our governors start having that same mentality
Im not saying they have to like it but I think they should all get on the phone right now and Give trump whatever BS praise he is asking for in order to get what they can out of him.

hell if I was governor I would tell him he is the greatest president since Lincoln if he would shut up and give my state everything it needs lol

Not let me be clear about this The Governors and mayors should not have to do this but if helps save lives and get them the resources they need then it is worth it in the end

There is another alternative.
The House has yet to vote on the bailout...it is not too late to actually do what is needed for the good of the country!

[Dr. Arch]

Im going to attempt to do the impossible and Play devils advocate for President Trump

As many of you on here already know Trump is your classic narcissistic
He needs for people to constantly praise him at all times and tell him how awesome he is.
Kim and Putin have already picked up on this because They know all they have to do is say a few nice words to the guy and he gives them everything they could ever ask for

Maybe its time our governors start having that same mentality
Im not saying they have to like it but I think they should all get on the phone right now and Give trump whatever BS praise he is asking for in order to get what they can out of him.

hell if I was governor I would tell him he is the greatest president since Lincoln if he would shut up and give my state everything it needs lol

Not let me be clear about this The Governors and mayors should not have to do this but if helps save lives and get them the resources they need then it is worth it in the end

There is another alternative.
The House has yet to vote on the bailout...it is not too late to actually do what is needed for the good of the country!

Which is...

[JA]

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1243395633081274376

That article is actually quite terrifying.

Nembro, one of the municipalities most affected by Covid-19, should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. But the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31

[...]

We looked at the average of the deaths in the municipality of previous years, in the period January - March. Nembro should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. That is 123 more than the average.

[...]

In the hypothesis - not at all remote - that all citizens of Nembro have caught the virus (with many asymptomatic, therefore), 158 deaths would equate to a lethality rate of 1%. That is precisely the expected and measured lethality rate on the Diamond Princess cruise ship and - made proportionally by demographic structure - in South Korea. We have made exactly the same calculation for the municipalities of Cernusco sul Naviglio (Mi) and Pesaro using exactly the same methodology. In Cernusco the number of anomalous deaths is equal to 6.1 times those officially attributed to Covid-19, also in Pesaro 6.1 times. But even more staggering are the Bergamo figures, where the ratio reaches 10.4.


It is extremely reasonable to think that these excess deaths are largely elderly or frail people who died at home or in residential facilities, without being hospitalized and without being swabbed to verify that they have actually become infected with Covid-19. Given the decline seen in the last few days after the peak, flock immunity has likely been attained in Nembro. To a certain degree, Nembro represents what would happen in Italy if everyone were infected by CoronaVirus, Covid-19: 600,000 people would die.

[...]

Our fear is that not only the number of infected people have been largely underestimated due to the low number of swabs and tests carried out, and therefore the number of asymptomatics from the statistics have «disappeared», but that the case is also – through the data of the Municipalities - that of the dead.

[GP270watch]

 Yeah the data is unreliable because every country is using their own metric for what a Covid-19 death is. Nothing has been standardized yet, it will be very easy to tell afterwards when we get public records of deaths and compare them to previous years.

 

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/1243396224654249985?s=21

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/1243396224654249985?s=21

apparently people are saying it is the henry ford hospital

this is horrific and if it is sign of whats to come than things are about to get really ugly

[HisGrace]

https://twitter.com/MazMHussain/status/1243214629674852354?s=19

This is like what happened in the South Park movie from 99

[HisGrace]

for the fans of testing and not lock down
in US you are around 330 millions, to 2 tests a week, are 660 millions of tests a week at 30 $ each are around 20 billion at week,
ever if there is a capability to do 100 million of tests a day...

We’re about to pass a $2 Trillion bailout package.  $20 billion for testing everyone sounds trivial.

Yeah, really seems like that would be the bigger priority.

[T'Chenka]

https://twitter.com/MazMHussain/status/1243214629674852354?s=19

This is like what happened in the South Park movie from 99

It's time to form a full assault. It's Canada's fault.

[HisGrace]

https://twitter.com/MazMHussain/status/1243214629674852354?s=19

This is like what happened in the South Park movie from 99

It's time to form a full assault. It's Canada's fault.

Might as well blame Canada for everything. They'll probably still say sorry.

[T'Chenka]

https://twitter.com/MazMHussain/status/1243214629674852354?s=19

This is like what happened in the South Park movie from 99

It's time to form a full assault. It's Canada's fault.

Might as well blame Canada for everything. They'll probably still say sorry.

Mostly, but on occasion we are half-decent with a baseball bat.

Seriously though, there will be practically zero Canadians trying to sneak into the USA during coronavirus. Maybe 20 or 40 for very unique curcumstances.

[Smeulders]

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1243395633081274376

That article is actually quite terrifying.

Nembro, one of the municipalities most affected by Covid-19, should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. But the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31
[...]
In the hypothesis - not at all remote - that all citizens of Nembro have caught the virus (with many asymptomatic, therefore), 158 deaths would equate to a lethality rate of 1%.

Important to highlight, the 1% rate is under the hypothesis that the whole town was infected. That is basically a best-case scenario. That best-case scenario isn't unlikely, but it is best-case.

It is important to note that the apparent underestimation of deaths happened in an area overwhelmed by the epidemic. It seems unlikely that such severe underestimations are currently happening anywhere except for Northern Italy.

[GoTfan]

Thoughts?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

[T'Chenka]

Thoughts?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Close-to-best case scenario.

[Torrain]

Thoughts?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

I hope so.

We’ve raced to get to this point over the last fortnight, from converting London’s Excel Centre (a former Olympic stadium and event centre) into a 4,000 bed temporary hospital, to reorganising existing hospitals. We’ve called on retired medical staff to return to service, and received around 12,000 returnees so far. ICU capacity has been theoretically doubled in some hospitals.

This has all come with some hard choices.  I know people who’ve been taken off vital chemotherapy because we’re redirecting the entire supply of nurses in this country at prepping for an influx of cases.

We’re also still concerned about ventilators. There’s talk of pulling the ventilation equipment from ambulances if necessary, and the government has put out requests for the equipment, which means they’ll get built, but it may take a while before they’re ready.

[GoTfan]

Thoughts?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Close-to-best case scenario.

Trust me, Ferguson is no head-in-the-sand optimist. The guy was raising the alarm back in January, and he was the one who produced that report showing the UK suffering 500,000k+ fatalities.

[Torrain]

BREAKING: UK PM Boris Johnson has COVID-19

He's tested positive, and is displaying mild symptoms.

We have a continuity plan in place, with Foreign Secretary (and everyone's least favourite cabinet minister) Dominic Raab taking over if he becomes seriously ill.

But more important is the fact that this means key figures like the Health Secretary, as well as the rest of the UK cabinet, the Chief Medical Officer and much of the upper ranks of the civil service could be infected.

Johnson was in Parliament as recently as Wednesday, alongside the Health Secretary, and the leaders of the opposition parties. And he stood alongside the Chancellor just last night.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52060791

[JA]

https://twitter.com/msmacb/status/1243410452220006400?s=19



I'm quite certain now that my fiancee and I had it. She developed all of those symptoms (not sure about loss of smell) and had practically sudden onset pneumonia (diagnosed by x-ray) while testing negative for influenza and strep. Her symptoms first emerged the night of the 28th and only slowly got worse until the 1st. By the 10th day she was in the hospital with her SP02 in the 76-93 range.

As for me, I only recall having the symptoms very mildly.