COVID-19 Megathread 3: Third time's a charm

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I've given up hope that remdesivir will ever be approved for broad use - even though it probably works.

I would give it some time. The China trials haven’t even been released yet. I think Trump will try to get it through as quickly as possible if it proves effective (which it hopefully will)

We have some hope that it has worked with other coronaviruses before so there is a decent chance it might work here. But we won't know for a while.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'm kind of scared that California has only tested 29k. Is California even testing everyone who dies?

[BlueSwan]

It's crazy that people aren't blaming Trump (instead he's getting a bounce). The fact is that the US had the MASSIVE advantage in comparison to Europe of having been able to see what happened in Europe well in advance of it really spreading in the US and what did Trump do? Well you know what he did.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/03/31/schwarzenegger-shortsighted-for-california-to-defund-pandemic-stockpile-he-built-1269954

Schwarzenegger: 'Shortsighted' for California to defund pandemic stockpile he built

[Sir Mohamed]

It's crazy that people aren't blaming Trump (instead he's getting a bounce). The fact is that the US had the MASSIVE advantage in comparison to Europe of having been able to see what happened in Europe well in advance of it really spreading in the US and what did Trump do? Well you know what he did.

I think most people don't care what was a few weeks ago when this thing was barely on the minds of anyone. Now Trump has at least done some things that seem like he's acting to solve the problem.

I'm starting to ask myself how a worst-case scenario would impact his standing? Say by early June, we have 200,000 deaths. I dunno. Maybe he would get a further bump. I think it all depends on whether people blame him or just conclude he's done all humanly possible in his power.

[Smeulders]

I know this is going to sound bad, but you really can’t draw all that many conclusions from the released data.

Drawing trends from a sample of only a few days is always a bad idea.

Moreover, every nation is massively underreporting cases, and there’s no knowing how accurate each nation is.

The Uni studies change by the day, because for all their work, they are working off of incomplete information, and making necessary assumptions.

As a scientist, I beg you. Treat all data and analysis you see with at least a pinch of scepticism.

I appreciate all the graphs posted here. And that info is super helpful. Let’s just not pin our hopes on an incomplete dataset.

Edit: apologies for the rant, I’m cooped up in the house with parents asking when this is all going to be over, and I’m fighting against the baser parts of the UK media, which are peddling some baseless optimism based on bad data.

Give me the blunt truth any day.

I'm with you on this, like you I see the importance of looking at "the data". I know the time some countries update their daily numbers by heart. That said, some of the analysis here is just not helpful. When I see my country's daily briefing, I hear a bunch of very cautious statements: "the latest numbers seem to indicate x, but we can only confirm that evolution if the numbers hold for y more days". Those are statements by experts who have access to much more detailed data, models fine-tuned over decades and they are backed by vast amounts of computing power. Here, I see posters who were only vaguely aware of the word "epidomology" 2 months ago make confident statements based on a minute change on the daily rate of increase of positive tests. Testing, reporting, everything is different between different countries, yet we keep comparing graphs of raw numbers as if we can use one to predict the other.

I do not want to be too negative. Even if none of us are experts, discussion is always interesting. Everyone will leave a little smarter than they got here. I see some people thinking the right way, asking some of the right questions. With a bit of luck we'll know 1% as much as actual experts by the time this thing is over. Some humility would help this thread.

To add to the discussion, I'll re-iterate a point that I believe has been raised earlier (probably even in a previous incarnation of the thread). Reported numbers are descriptive, not prescriptive. In broad lines, every country will follow the same trends (exponential growth, plateau, decline, deaths lagging cases). The duration of each phase will not be the same for different countries. Almost certainly, no country has reached it's peak through a natural evolution of cases. The increase has so far always been stopped by intervention, be that contact tracing and quarantines of (suspected) cases or by lockdowns. If you want to try and predict when cases will peak, you are much better off looking at the time lockdowns were implemented to the peak than just looking at a context-free graph. (Even then, different population densities, social patterns, etc will ensure a lot of variance between countries).

[Torrain]

I've given up hope that remdesivir will ever be approved for broad use - even though it probably works.

I would give it some time. The China trials haven’t even been released yet. I think Trump will try to get it through as quickly as possible if it proves effective (which it hopefully will)

^This. Drug discovery is a slow, arduous process, with high costs at each stage. Heck, the US alone will probably have to wait months yet.

First, you'll need to apply the drug to healthy individuals, to ensure safety, over the course of around a month.

Then you need a large sample of COVID-19 patients, including a control group, who'll be given a placebo.

Once all those results are in, there's still write-up, peer review and FDA approval to go through.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Morning, y'all.

Not much has changed since my last update -- no improvement, but fortunately not any worse.  

Still having some sharp pains when I breath in, though my fever has stabilized.  

I don't know how fast your symptoms kicked off, LR, but the progression of mine has been faster than the accounts I've read.  

That pain during inspiration is slightly more intense than what it was eight hours ago.  

Hang in there!

At what point do you go to the hospital dude.

SNIP

It's not necessary to rush off to a hospital at this stage and potentially spread this virus to others.

Your local hospital is still not prepared to receive patients without cross-infection?  

Yes, I'm pretty uncomfortable right now between the fever and muscular pains.  But a 102-102.5*F is not a reason to visit the ER, nor is noticeable (but expected and relatively stable) chest discomfort.  

That being said, I've become even more diligent about keeping tabs on my vitals within the past twenty-four hours.  Before, I took readings every eight hours.  Now, it's every four.  

Ok, but what is the threshold at which you say, "Yes, now is the trigger for me needing medical treatment"?

I don't have a set threshold, though my pulse ox will be a major factor into that decision. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1245690256147480576

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/1 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

3/29:

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | ↑26.73%)

3/31 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | ↑22.84%)

4/1 (Today):

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | ↑31.94%)

Day-to-day are noisy and depends on timing. For instance, WaPo has ~850 new deaths both on 3/31 and 4/1. The totals are similar, though. It's better to use weakly or moving-average.

A ~half of deaths & cases are from NY/NJ.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/

Deaths per day.


Deaths per day per State.



They have also cool zoomable by county totals map.

[Yank2133]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1245690256147480576

Yeah, Trump is finished.

That is like a 8-9% UE rate.

[Calthrina950]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1245690256147480576

Yeah, Trump is finished.

That is like a 8-9% UE rate.

I've seen estimates stating that up to a third of the labor force could become unemployed as a result of this outbreak. If that happens, it would be a figure higher than that recorded in the Great Depression.

[Torrain]

I know this is going to sound bad, but you really can’t draw all that many conclusions from the released data.

Drawing trends from a sample of only a few days is always a bad idea.

Moreover, every nation is massively underreporting cases, and there’s no knowing how accurate each nation is.

The Uni studies change by the day, because for all their work, they are working off of incomplete information, and making necessary assumptions.

As a scientist, I beg you. Treat all data and analysis you see with at least a pinch of scepticism.

I appreciate all the graphs posted here. And that info is super helpful. Let’s just not pin our hopes on an incomplete dataset.

Edit: apologies for the rant, I’m cooped up in the house with parents asking when this is all going to be over, and I’m fighting against the baser parts of the UK media, which are peddling some baseless optimism based on bad data.

Give me the blunt truth any day.

I'm with you on this, like you I see the importance of looking at "the data". I know the time some countries update their daily numbers by heart. That said, some of the analysis here is just not helpful. When I see my country's daily briefing, I hear a bunch of very cautious statements: "the latest numbers seem to indicate x, but we can only confirm that evolution if the numbers hold for y more days". Those are statements by experts who have access to much more detailed data, models fine-tuned over decades and they are backed by vast amounts of computing power. Here, I see posters who were only vaguely aware of the word "epidomology" 2 months ago make confident statements based on a minute change on the daily rate of increase of positive tests. Testing, reporting, everything is different between different countries, yet we keep comparing graphs of raw numbers as if we can use one to predict the other.

I do not want to be too negative. Even if none of us are experts, discussion is always interesting. Everyone will leave a little smarter than they got here. I see some people thinking the right way, asking some of the right questions. With a bit of luck we'll know 1% as much as actual experts by the time this thing is over. Some humility would help this thread.

To add to the discussion, I'll re-iterate a point that I believe has been raised earlier (probably even in a previous incarnation of the thread). Reported numbers are descriptive, not prescriptive. In broad lines, every country will follow the same trends (exponential growth, plateau, decline, deaths lagging cases). The duration of each phase will not be the same for different countries. Almost certainly, no country has reached it's peak through a natural evolution of cases. The increase has so far always been stopped by intervention, be that contact tracing and quarantines of (suspected) cases or by lockdowns. If you want to try and predict when cases will peak, you are much better off looking at the time lockdowns were implemented to the peak than just looking at a context-free graph. (Even then, different population densities, social patterns, etc will ensure a lot of variance between countries).

^This. 100%

[Yank2133]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1245690256147480576

Yeah, Trump is finished.

That is like a 8-9% UE rate.

I've seen estimates stating that up to a third of the labor force could become unemployed as a result of this outbreak. If that happens, it would be a figure higher than that recorded in the Great Depression.

Yeah. This could get very ugly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Fahrenthold/status/1245513303457181697

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/andrewsweiss/status/1245446857851011073

From Russia with love!

https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1245237645762052101

We helped our friends from Italy as well!

https://www.ft.com/content/68d06b8d-e927-3bf8-a837-68df528e1268

Russia sent nine giant IL-76 transport planes carrying 600 ventilators, 100 military virologists, and eight medical teams to Italy last week to help with the country’s coronavirus outbreak. Military trucks bearing the Russian flag then drove the aid to Bergamo, one of Italy’s hardest-hit regions.

The peak in Russia will be later then in Italy and US, so we hope, you'll help back. Quid Pro Quo (just don't tell Pelosi, please!)!

“In offering aid to our American colleagues, the president expects that when American producers of medical equipment and supplies pick up the pace, they will also be able to answer in turn if required,” Mr Peskov said. “Now, when the current situation affects everyone without exception all over the world, there is no alternative other than acting in the spirit of partnership and mutual aid.”

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Dr. Fauci on threats to his safety and the need for personal security in light of these threats: "I've chosen this life".

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/fauci-threats-his-safety-i-ve-chosen-life-n1174816

WASHINGTON — Dr. Anthony Fauci said Thursday that he remains focused on his work fighting the coronavirus pandemic despite reports of threats to his personal safety.

In an interview on NBC's "TODAY" show, host Savannah Guthrie asked the nation's top infectious disease expert whether he feels personally threatened or whether he and his family feel safe, a reference to reports that he has received a protection from the federal government.

"I've chosen this life. I mean I know what it is," Fauci said. "There are things about it that are sometimes disturbing. But you just focus on the job you have to do, and just put all that stuff aside and try as best as possible not to pay attention to it."

[°Leprechaun]

I don't know if anyone has seen this, but it doesn't hurt to share it again (Although I'm not yet a Biden supporter):

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/nobody-expected-the-coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-did.html

[Koharu]

Dr. Fauci on threats to his safety and the need for personal security in light of these threats: "I've chosen this life".

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/fauci-threats-his-safety-i-ve-chosen-life-n1174816

WASHINGTON — Dr. Anthony Fauci said Thursday that he remains focused on his work fighting the coronavirus pandemic despite reports of threats to his personal safety.

In an interview on NBC's "TODAY" show, host Savannah Guthrie asked the nation's top infectious disease expert whether he feels personally threatened or whether he and his family feel safe, a reference to reports that he has received a protection from the federal government.

"I've chosen this life. I mean I know what it is," Fauci said. "There are things about it that are sometimes disturbing. But you just focus on the job you have to do, and just put all that stuff aside and try as best as possible not to pay attention to it."

What in the world?! Why are people threatening him? Are they seriously trying to shoot the messenger here?

[roxas11]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1245690256147480576

Congratulations President Joe Biden.........

Hopefully you will have a easier time cleaning up this mess than Obama did cleaning up after Bush  

[Roll Roons]

Dr. Fauci on threats to his safety and the need for personal security in light of these threats: "I've chosen this life".

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/fauci-threats-his-safety-i-ve-chosen-life-n1174816

WASHINGTON — Dr. Anthony Fauci said Thursday that he remains focused on his work fighting the coronavirus pandemic despite reports of threats to his personal safety.

In an interview on NBC's "TODAY" show, host Savannah Guthrie asked the nation's top infectious disease expert whether he feels personally threatened or whether he and his family feel safe, a reference to reports that he has received a protection from the federal government.

"I've chosen this life. I mean I know what it is," Fauci said. "There are things about it that are sometimes disturbing. But you just focus on the job you have to do, and just put all that stuff aside and try as best as possible not to pay attention to it."

What in the world?! Why are people threatening him? Are they seriously trying to shoot the messenger here?

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/1245698456255188995. This tweet says everything you need to know.

[Torrain]

Dr. Fauci on threats to his safety and the need for personal security in light of these threats: "I've chosen this life".

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/fauci-threats-his-safety-i-ve-chosen-life-n1174816

WASHINGTON — Dr. Anthony Fauci said Thursday that he remains focused on his work fighting the coronavirus pandemic despite reports of threats to his personal safety.

In an interview on NBC's "TODAY" show, host Savannah Guthrie asked the nation's top infectious disease expert whether he feels personally threatened or whether he and his family feel safe, a reference to reports that he has received a protection from the federal government.

"I've chosen this life. I mean I know what it is," Fauci said. "There are things about it that are sometimes disturbing. But you just focus on the job you have to do, and just put all that stuff aside and try as best as possible not to pay attention to it."

What in the world?! Why are people threatening him? Are they seriously trying to shoot the messenger here?

The right-wing echo chamber online has decided that this is some kind of conspiracy, that Fauci is worsening as part of some 'left-wing, deep-state cabal'.

It's the same mindset that leads these people to believe that the entire scientific community is lying about global warming for personal gain, but taken to a new extreme.

If Fauci is attacked, blame the Hannity's and Bill Mitchell's who started the narrative of this as a Democratic hoax to drag Trump's poll numbers down.

Source:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/technology/coronavirus-fauci-trump-conspiracy-target.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/dr-fauci-security-reportedly-expanded-as-infectious-disease-expert-faces-threats
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/hero-or-villain-dr-fauci-symbolizes-everything-about-the-trump-era-media-climate/2020/03/31/54ccc15e-734b-11ea-85cb-8670579b863d_story.html

Also, posted by Mitchell within the last hour:
https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/1245698456255188995
As much as I want to ignore the guy, he's part of a wider network of bomb-throwers that we need to call out. This is exactly the kind of message that is going to get good people hurt.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: Cuomo/NY vs CA (or FL).

New York Media starts to admit that Cuomo gets a lot of credit just for being "presidential" and "empathetic" on TV, while De Blasio looks at times like a sore loser. Not that their actions look so much different. Both have been handling it worse than other states, IMHO.
https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1245042180655394819

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1245510326487040005

I said for a couple of weeks ago, Cuomo is a lot like Bush whose verbal response was nearly perfect, but in the end didn't matter. Bush's actual response was a disaster pushing ME into a chaos.


https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/03/28/de-blasios-coronavirus-crisis-1269480

“You know I hated closing the schools. I thought it was going to cause all sorts of other problems and of course it has,” de Blasio said during a radio interview Friday morning. Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has been granted public hero status during this crisis, similarly reversed his stance on closing schools within a matter of hours that Sunday.

He and de Blasio were also at odds over whether to require New Yorkers to “shelter in place,” an argument of semantics that went on for days as residents were left without clear guidance. De Blasio was calling for the policy earlier than Cuomo, while also signaling confusion about its implementation.

He has been spending up to three hours a day preparing for his daily news conference, often facing the public around 5 p.m., well after Cuomo has already addressed New Yorkers in briefings that kick off the day’s news cycle and attract a loyal following.

“[De Blasio] keeps using this wartime analogy. He does not seem like a general. He seems like he’s writing a book about the general. Cuomo seems like a general,” a former City Hall official said.

Yes, indeed. "Cuomo seems like a general". People like it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mitchell's stupidity is astounding.  Fauci is a Hillary plant?  He's been in his current job (director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) since 1984!

[brucejoel99]

Mitchell's stupidity is astounding.  Fauci is a Hillary plant?  He's been in his current job (director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) since 1984!

Bold of you to assume the Clinton conspiracy wasn't well underway by 1984.