COVID-19 Megathread 3: Third time's a charm

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The growth in new cases back around March 18 was just horrid. The deaths are reflecting that now.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/1 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

3/29:

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | ↑26.73%)

3/31 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | ↑22.84%)

4/1 (Today):

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | ↑31.94%)

Yet another day that the percentage increase was less than the day before.  I think there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic that we'll be over the worst of this sooner than many of y'all do.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/1 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

3/29:

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | ↑26.73%)

3/31 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | ↑22.84%)

4/1 (Today):

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | ↑31.94%)

Yet another day that the percentage increase was less than the day before.  I think there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic that we'll be over the worst of this sooner than many of y'all do.

Trends in the number of confirmed cases isn't incredibly informative because it's confounded by the number of tests, and we know we're running up against the limits of how much testing we can do right now.

A better (although still biased) metric is the number of deaths. Still imperfect because there are people who may die and won't get tested retroactively but it's still less susceptible to shortcomings in testing capability.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/1 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

3/29:

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | ↑26.73%)

3/31 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | ↑22.84%)

4/1 (Today):

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | ↑31.94%)

Yet another day that the percentage increase was less than the day before.  I think there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic that we'll be over the worst of this sooner than many of y'all do.

I wish that were true, but unfortunately the decrease is more likely an artifact of a testing bottleneck, as shown by:

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1245465267028684802

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I wish that were true, but unfortunately the decrease is more likely an artifact of a testing bottleneck, as shown by:

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1245465267028684802

I usually look at a rolling average of new cases over the past 2 or 3 days. It's not good now, but things were many times worse around March 17-19.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

DeSantis evacuating Floridians from an infected cruise ship, abandoning others

https://twitter.com/joelockhart/status/1245433038915481602
Never been more glad to hold Floridian citizenship!

Seems blatantly unconstitutional

Even though he finally yielded and issued a stay-at-home order, DeSantis is still demonstrating considerable incompetence in responding to this pandemic.

DeSantis has been touted as a future presidential candidate, but an action like this wouldn't play well with the rest of the country.

Rotten Ron.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I wish that were true, but unfortunately the decrease is more likely an artifact of a testing bottleneck, as shown by:

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1245465267028684802

I usually look at a rolling average of new cases over the past 2 or 3 days. It's not good now, but things were many times worse around March 17-19.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding but if the lag in testing lasts for more than 2-3 days then the rolling average will still be biased-low.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I think it's fair to assume that DeSantis's future presidential bid is DoA after this. A lot can be forgotten by 2024, but not something as earth shaking as this pandemic.

All the elderly will be dead and won't be able to vote against him, while the college kids will be happy they still have the right to party.

[Torrain]

I know this is going to sound bad, but you really can’t draw all that many conclusions from the released data.

Drawing trends from a sample of only a few days is always a bad idea.

Moreover, every nation is massively underreporting cases, and there’s no knowing how accurate each nation is.

The Uni studies change by the day, because for all their work, they are working off of incomplete information, and making necessary assumptions.

As a scientist, I beg you. Treat all data and analysis you see with at least a pinch of scepticism.

I appreciate all the graphs posted here. And that info is super helpful. Let’s just not pin our hopes on an incomplete dataset.

Edit: apologies for the rant, I’m cooped up in the house with parents asking when this is all going to be over, and I’m fighting against the baser parts of the UK media, which are peddling some baseless optimism based on bad data.

Give me the blunt truth any day.

[ON Progressive]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/1 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

3/29:

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | ↑26.73%)

3/31 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | ↑22.84%)

4/1 (Today):

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | ↑31.94%)

Where are you seeing 1235 fatalities? That worldometers link you have in your post has 1049.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/1 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

3/29:

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | ↑26.73%)

3/31 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | ↑22.84%)

4/1 (Today):

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | ↑31.94%)

Where are you seeing 1235 fatalities? That worldometers link you have in your post has 1049.

I think it might be an error on worldometers because the numbers do match up

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/sangerkatz/status/1245493935113474049

Trump's administration didn't keep up the maintenance plan. Imagine that. Let the experts go, don't maintain the equipment, etc.; just the usual.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/1 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

3/29:

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | ↑12.35%)

3/30:

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | ↑26.73%)

3/31 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | ↑22.84%)

4/1 (Today):

• Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | ↑14.41%)
• Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | ↑31.94%)

Where are you seeing 1235 fatalities? That worldometers link you have in your post has 1049.

I think it might be an error on worldometers because the numbers do match up

Yes. I'm running the numbers myself at around 9:00 PM EST every day. I only take the raw counts from worldometer.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1245491971105447937

 

ouch.    He was brilliant.  Fountains of Wayne could be so poignant.  Ever seen That Thing You Do?  He wrote The Wonders' music.  

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1245491971105447937

This is crushing.  Such an amazing songwriter.  Fountains of Wayne.  Josie and the Pussycats.  Crazy Ex-Girlfriend.  I play Valley Winter Song for my newborn daughter all the time. 

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/atrios/status/1245367169564770304

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Songwriter Adam Schlesinger (Fountains of Wayne ("Stacy's Mom"), Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, that Colbert Report Christmas special, et hoc genus omne) has died of COVID-19 at the age of 52.

EDIT: Lourdes beat me to it. RIP regardless.

Fountains of Wayne could be so poignant.

They really could. Evoked a kind of lower-middle-class 90s-2000s mid-Atlantic suburban world I remember very well.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/andrewrush/status/1244657465859457024

[jimrtex]

Truck carrying toilet paper catches fire, shuts down Dallas highway

DALLAS (WFAA) — A tractor-trailer carrying toilet paper caught fire overnight in Hutchins, according to local officials.

The driver of the truck is OK, authorities told WFAA.

The fire shut down all lanes of westbound Interstate 20 around 4:15 a.m. near Interstate 45 in Hutchins, according to the Texas Department of Transportation.

The toilet paper, which appeared to be large rolls typical of commercial use, was scattered across the roadway. TxDOT officials said the tractor-trailer and the load of toilet paper "burned extensively," estimating it would take authorities "some time" to clean up.

I'm surprised it wasn't like those stories you hear of armored vans where a bundle of cash tumbles out the back, and people are stopped on the freeway and grabbing what they can.

I was at the store, and there were 3 12-packs of toilet paper. It was hard to not go and grab one. A week ago, the shelf was empty - but I was looking for trash bags, which happened to be in the next place. Apparently everyone who was hunting toilet paper saw the trash bags and decided if they couldn't get toilet paper they should take the next item.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I've given up hope that remdesivir will ever be approved for broad use - even though it probably works.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/andrewrush/status/1244657465859457024

This could have been avoided had Trump not called it a hoax and acted sooner.

[GP270watch]

We're literally in week 3(since most of The U.S. took it seriously) of this. Can't imagine what all of April and May being locked down would make this country look like.

[T'Chenka]

We're literally in week 3(since most of The U.S. took it seriously) of this. Can't imagine what all of April and May being locked down would make this country look like.

It took 39 months, but Trump has finally made America "great" again. Things haven't been this "great" in 100 years, but under Trump's vision and leadership, he made it happen.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1245550510444339200

[It’s so Joever]

I've given up hope that remdesivir will ever be approved for broad use - even though it probably works.

I would give it some time. The China trials haven’t even been released yet. I think Trump will try to get it through as quickly as possible if it proves effective (which it hopefully will)