Orange County, CA county election megathread

[I’m not Stu]

In supervisorial District 1, Andrew Do (R) faces Sergio Contreras (D) in a runoff. Primary candidates were: Andrew Do (R-Garden Grove), Sergio Contreras (D-Westminster), Miguel Pulido (D-Santa Ana), and Kim Bernice Nguyen (D-Garden Grove). Who wins the runoff? Democrats got a majority of the primary vote, but Vietnamese candidates (Do and Nguyen) also got a majority.

District 1 primary map: Andrew Do (R), Miguel Pulido (D), no votes

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The Orange County County megathread?


Is this just for the 1st Supervisor district runoff or any other OC races?

[I’m not Stu]

The Orange County County megathread?


Is this just for the 1st Supervisor district runoff or any other OC races?

All. Who wins district 1 (Democrats got a majority in the primary, but so did the Vietnamese candidates)? Donald Wagner (R-Irvine) defeated Ashleigh Aitken (D-Anaheim) in district 3.
Donald Wagner (R), Ashleigh Aitken (D)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The Orange County County megathread?


Is this just for the 1st Supervisor district runoff or any other OC races?

All. Who wins district 1 (Democrats got a majority in the primary, but so did the Vietnamese candidates)? Donald Wagner (R-Irvine) defeated Ashleigh Aitken (D-Anaheim) in district 3.

Gotcha. I'm very interested in the Senate-37 race. I'm not sure whether to be more interested in who wins or how big the winner gets

[I’m not Stu]

SD-37 covers Newport Beach and Anaheim. I have no idea what that will be like. Who wins supervisorial district 1, Do or Contreras? In that district, Democrats (Sergio Contreras, Miguel Pulido, and Kim Nguyen) got a majority, but the Vietnamese candidates (Kim Nguyen and Andrew Do) collectively got a majority too. What will happen there?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Why do I get the feeling your megathreads are less "Move broad discussion in here" and more "Just answer the questions that I will continually ask"?


"What's gonna happen in the first supervisoral district?"
"Is this for all OC races?"
"Sure. What's gonna happen in the first supervisoral district?"
"I'm interested in John Moorlach's race"
"Sure. What's gonna happen in the first supervisoral district?"

[DrScholl]

Andrew Do barely won in 2016 so it would seem like he's in danger of losing, but in local races can be more unpredictable.

[I’m not Stu]

Andrew Do barely won in 2016 so it would seem like he's in danger of losing, but in local races can be more unpredictable.

The race is a tossup. Elections are nonpartisan at the supervisorial level. Will more Kim Nguyen voters vote for fellow Democrat Contreras, or will they choose Do (the other Vietnamese candidate)?

[SevenEleven]

SD-37 covers Newport Beach and Anaheim. I have no idea what that will be like. Who wins supervisorial district 1, Do or Contreras? In that district, Democrats (Sergio Contreras, Miguel Pulido, and Kim Nguyen) got a majority, but the Vietnamese candidates (Kim Nguyen and Andrew Do) collectively got a majority too. What will happen there?

Partisanship trends further than race, though these numbers are biased due to the lack of minority Republicans. Still, we've seen Cuban Americans in Florida and Vietnamese Americans in SoCal elect their own sort of Republican. I think the Democratic candidate Nguyen wins. Orange County is gone for Republicans.

[I’m not Stu]

I made a map of AD-65, Sharon Quirk-Silva (D) vs. Cynthia Thacker (R). Sharon Quirk-Silva (D-Fullerton) got 56.9% in her hometown, but got 59.7% in Garden Grove, which isn't close to Fullerton. Thacker isn't from Fullerton. Why did Quirk-Silva do better in Garden Grove than in Fullerton?

Sharon Quirk-Silva (D)

[pikachu]

SD-37 covers Newport Beach and Anaheim. I have no idea what that will be like. Who wins supervisorial district 1, Do or Contreras? In that district, Democrats (Sergio Contreras, Miguel Pulido, and Kim Nguyen) got a majority, but the Vietnamese candidates (Kim Nguyen and Andrew Do) collectively got a majority too. What will happen there?

Partisanship trends further than race, though these numbers are biased due to the lack of minority Republicans. Still, we've seen Cuban Americans in Florida and Vietnamese Americans in SoCal elect their own sort of Republican. I think the Democratic candidate Nguyen wins. Orange County is gone for Republicans.

Local elections lag – Republicans still do well in supervisorial races in San Diego and San Bernardino even though those counties are more or less gone federally and even in LA, they still held what was essentially CA-25+some more liberal areas. Still a fair amount of room left to crash locally for Republicans.

[Badger]

I made a map of AD-65, Sharon Quirk-Silva (D) vs. Cynthia Thacker (R). Sharon Quirk-Silva (D-Fullerton) got 56.9% in her hometown, but got 59.7% in Garden Grove, which isn't close to Fullerton. Thacker isn't from Fullerton. Why did Quirk-Silva do better in Garden Grove than in Fullerton?

Sharon Quirk-Silva (D)

On a side note, another map thread in Atlas showed how the Republican mayor of Garden Grove was recently re-elected in California nonpartisan primary with 84% of the vote. Think he could be a formidable Republican Challenger to quirk-silva?

[I’m not Stu]

OC supervisorial primary results are now official. Do and Contreras are now in a runoff. I expect a close race. Nonpartisan elections are slightly less polarized. The race will likely be a turnout battle betweer Garden Grove/Fountain Valley/Westminster vs. Santa Ana. Who wins?