How long would Zell Miller have gotten reelected?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 10, 2025, 10:03:44 AM
News: Election Calculator 3.0 with county/house maps is now live. For more info, click here

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Virginiá, KaiserDave)
  How long would Zell Miller have gotten reelected?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: How long would Zell Miller have gotten reelected?  (Read 2692 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,201


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: March 24, 2020, 08:29:52 PM »

He would've just switched parties if it ever looked like he was in real danger of losing.

Would he even have won a GOP primary or would some tea partier primary him

I doubt he'd be challenged.

I think he would have been challenged in a GOP primary. For sure, he was some sort of "favorite son" and a local icon, but that didn't safe Dick Lugar from defeat. Many base voters distrust switchers anyway, especially if switch comes before an election you might lose otherwise. Arlen Specter lost for that matter.

The difference between Lugar & Miller being that Lugar was pretty moderate for a Republican, & Miller was pretty conservative even for a conservative Democrat. He would've fit in with the GOP & the base's conservative orthodoxy much better than Lugar.

Miller was still to the left of George W Bush which would make it very easy for Miller to be primaried.


Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,384
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: March 24, 2020, 09:16:57 PM »
« Edited: March 24, 2020, 09:26:18 PM by Adam Griffin »

Hot take: Ol' Zig Zag Zell would've narrowly lost in 2004 had he ran as a Democrat. Even at that time, overcoming a 17-point presidential loss in GA would've been very, very difficult (not to mention how many Democrats he alienated during this time). People are underestimating just how many Dixiecrats died and/or completely flipped between 2000-2004 (see 1998 and 2002 statewide elections for some clarity). Of course, had he planned to run in 2004 as a D, he might not have gone off the rails entirely - which could have possibly been enough to save him, but I doubt it.

Had he switched parties and ran as a Republican, he would have won - assuming he cleared the primary. However and given GA's primary would've occurred before the RNC convention, I'm not sure he could have zigged and zagged enough to clear somebody like Isakson (who even then was a GOP powerhouse; he "only" lost by 8 to Miller in the 1990 gubernatorial election).
Logged
Coolface Sock #42069
whitesox130
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,688
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: 2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: March 24, 2020, 11:11:03 PM »

He would have won in 2010 if you ask me, with the caveat that I don’t know if he would have survived a primary. Remember Joe Manchin easily survived 2010.

West Virginia Democrats were largely immune from the stigma of the National Democrats until 2014, it wasn’t just Manchin. The Georgia Democrats didn’t have any such luck at all in maintaining a distinct brand.
Even if the state party didn’t, Zell did.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,871
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: March 25, 2020, 10:22:00 AM »

He would've just switched parties if it ever looked like he was in real danger of losing.

Would he even have won a GOP primary or would some tea partier primary him

I doubt he'd be challenged.

I think he would have been challenged in a GOP primary. For sure, he was some sort of "favorite son" and a local icon, but that didn't safe Dick Lugar from defeat. Many base voters distrust switchers anyway, especially if switch comes before an election you might lose otherwise. Arlen Specter lost for that matter.

The difference between Lugar & Miller being that Lugar was pretty moderate for a Republican, & Miller was pretty conservative even for a conservative Democrat. He would've fit in with the GOP & the base's conservative orthodoxy much better than Lugar.

Miller was still to the left of George W Bush which would make it very easy for Miller to be primaried.




Yup. Miller, having been in elected office since the 1970s with just a very brief pause in 1999/2000, was part of the political establishment whose opposition the Tea Party made so successful in primaries. A primary challenger could also have discredited his party switch as pure opportunism just to keep his mandate.
Logged
Flyersfan232
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,568


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: June 17, 2020, 08:33:22 PM »

He would've switched parties in 2009 and continued getting elected until he retired.
I could see him switch and and lose the primary
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.027 seconds with 7 queries.