How long would Zell Miller have gotten reelected?

[President Johnson]

If right-leaning Democrat Zell Miller of Georgia stayed in the senate instead of stepping down in 2004, how long would he have been reelected? Assuming he keeps running and does so as a Democrat. I think he would have won easily in 2004, but I'm not sure about 2010 or 2016. 2010 would have been tough, despite being a conservative and a local icon. It would have been a hard fought fight. If he survives 2010, I think he would have won 2016 before dying in 2018.

[voice_of_resistance]

Def would have won in 2004 something like 56-44. 2010 would be very close, but I would think that he would move proportionally right, and eke out a win 51-49. 2016 would be an interesting test, and I think he would barely survive one more time. So in general, I agree with you, just because Zell Miller was that big of a personality that he could defy all the polarization hitting Georgia. His coalitions would shift though, because the GOP would go even more insane than they have now in the state, if Miller went so far to the right.

[Skunk]

I feel like he would have lost in 2010. John Barrow being able to survive in his district makes me think maybe he could have pulled it out, though, so it's hard to say. Still, I'd expect a 4-5 point loss probably.

[lfromnj]

I feel like he would have lost in 2010. John Barrow being able to survive in his district makes me think maybe he could have pulled it out, though, so it's hard to say. Still, I'd expect a 4-5 point loss probably.

Barrows district was like +10 Obama, Georgia was +5 Mccain.

[SevenEleven]

He would've switched parties in 2009 and continued getting elected until he retired.

[Skunk]

I feel like he would have lost in 2010. John Barrow being able to survive in his district makes me think maybe he could have pulled it out, though, so it's hard to say. Still, I'd expect a 4-5 point loss probably.

Barrows district was like +10 Obama, Georgia was +5 Mccain.

Oh lol I must have been thinking about his district in 2012. Never mind, Miller 100% loses.

[here2view]

He definitely loses in 2010. The national environment would have been too much for him to overcome in my opinion.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

2004 was the end of an era for the Reagan Revolution,  that's why every D in the South lost their seats. 2006 restarted the Sunbelt state and New Dems got elected. John Edwards as Veep was trying to make that transition,  but he failed and we now know Dick Gephardt would have made that transition and won OH. But, the transition was made in 2006 when Sherrod Brown and Casey got elected

[brucejoel99]

He would've just switched parties if it ever looked like he was in real danger of losing.

[OSR stands with Israel]

He would've just switched parties if it ever looked like he was in real danger of losing.

Would he even have won a GOP primary or would some tea partier primary him

[brucejoel99]

He would've just switched parties if it ever looked like he was in real danger of losing.

Would he even have won a GOP primary or would some tea partier primary him

I doubt he'd be challenged.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Narrowly wins in 2004, loses by about ten in 2010 like Barnes did

[voice_of_resistance]

Miller would never switch. He said so himself. “I was born a Democrat. It’s not simply a party affiliation; it’s more like a birthmark for me and many of my fellow mountaineers … I would no more think of changing parties than I would think of changing my name.”

[brucejoel99]

Miller would never switch. He said so himself. “I was born a Democrat. It’s not simply a party affiliation; it’s more like a birthmark for me and many of my fellow mountaineers … I would no more think of changing parties than I would think of changing my name.”

He said that, but had he actually stayed in office, polling data could've always changed how he felt.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

He would have won in 2010 if you ask me, with the caveat that I don’t know if he would have survived a primary. Remember Joe Manchin easily survived 2010.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

He would have won in 2010 if you ask me, with the caveat that I don’t know if he would have survived a primary. Remember Joe Manchin easily survived 2010.

West Virginia Democrats were largely immune from the stigma of the National Democrats until 2014, it wasn’t just Manchin. The Georgia Democrats didn’t have any such luck at all in maintaining a distinct brand.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think the partisan gravitas in 2010 would have been too strong even for him to overcome. However, if he stayed in the senate, he probably would have switched parties in 2009. Basically the reverse Arlen Specter. Miller would have easily won the GE then, but like Specter, he would have been vulnerable in the GOP primary. Especially in a year the Tea Party was sweeping away traditional conservatives.

2016 is a different story if he survived 2010. He might have won in a neutral year as this. He probably could have won in 2012, too, but 2010 was just a very terrible year to run in for anyone with a (D) outside solid blue states.

[Gracile]

Given that there were a bunch of ideologically similar members of the House in the South who lost reelection the same year, I really don't think Miller could have won in 2010.

[Tintrlvr]

Realistically, he probably would have switched parties in 2009/2010 and then lost the Republican primary. But if he ran as a Democrat in 2010, I think he also would have lost.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Senate_elections#Arkansas

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_States_Senate_elections#Arkansas

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_States_Senate_elections#Louisiana

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_States_Senate_elections#North_Carolina

[IceSpear]

He would have won in 2010 if you ask me, with the caveat that I don’t know if he would have survived a primary. Remember Joe Manchin easily survived 2010.

West Virginia Democrats were largely immune from the stigma of the National Democrats until 2014, it wasn’t just Manchin. The Georgia Democrats didn’t have any such luck at all in maintaining a distinct brand.

He was also up against a giant turd of a candidate like Raese. Capito or another strong candidate could've beaten him that year.

[OSR stands with Israel]

He would have won in 2010 if you ask me, with the caveat that I don’t know if he would have survived a primary. Remember Joe Manchin easily survived 2010.

West Virginia Democrats were largely immune from the stigma of the National Democrats until 2014, it wasn’t just Manchin. The Georgia Democrats didn’t have any such luck at all in maintaining a distinct brand.

He was also up against a giant turd of a candidate like Raese. Capito or another strong candidate could've beaten him that year.

I have no idea why Capito didn’t run that year . I’m not complaining though since both Manchin and Capito are both massive FF and West Virginia currently has arguably the best senate pair in the nation .

[Sir Mohamed]

He would've just switched parties if it ever looked like he was in real danger of losing.

Would he even have won a GOP primary or would some tea partier primary him

I doubt he'd be challenged.

I think he would have been challenged in a GOP primary. For sure, he was some sort of "favorite son" and a local icon, but that didn't safe Dick Lugar from defeat. Many base voters distrust switchers anyway, especially if switch comes before an election you might lose otherwise. Arlen Specter lost for that matter.

[brucejoel99]

He would've just switched parties if it ever looked like he was in real danger of losing.

Would he even have won a GOP primary or would some tea partier primary him

I doubt he'd be challenged.

I think he would have been challenged in a GOP primary. For sure, he was some sort of "favorite son" and a local icon, but that didn't safe Dick Lugar from defeat. Many base voters distrust switchers anyway, especially if switch comes before an election you might lose otherwise. Arlen Specter lost for that matter.

The difference between Lugar & Miller being that Lugar was pretty moderate for a Republican, & Miller was pretty conservative even for a conservative Democrat. He would've fit in with the GOP & the base's conservative orthodoxy much better than Lugar.

[Suburbia]

He'd retire in 2010 and probably attack Obama.