Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[BoiseBoy]

Senate Redist. Committee will consider the congressional map tomorrow at some point:

https://twitter.com/brendenmoore13/status/1453511055347367943?s=20

[JGibson]

3rd edition of the Illinois Congressional redistricting maps are now out.

https://twitter.com/AmandaVinicky/status/1453552094707859460
https://twitter.com/JGibsonDem/status/1453552958470246402

[Roll Roons]

Illinois Democrats are psychopaths.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

https://twitter.com/Union_Tpke/status/1453554605653204992?s=20

[S019]

Illinois Democrats are psychopaths.

Are Florida and Texas Republicans also psychopaths? Illinois Democrats are working in Congress to pass the For the People Act, what have Florida or Texas Republicans done? The Democrats are forced to do this, because of what the Republicans are doing in states like Texas and Florida.

[Roll Roons]

Illinois Democrats are psychopaths.

Are Florida and Texas Republicans also psychopaths? Illinois Democrats are working in Congress to pass the For the People Act, what have Florida or Texas Republicans done? The Democrats are forced to do this, because of what the Republicans are doing in states like Texas and Florida.

Gerrymandering is bad, no matter which side does it.

[S019]

Illinois Democrats are psychopaths.

Are Florida and Texas Republicans also psychopaths? Illinois Democrats are working in Congress to pass the For the People Act, what have Florida or Texas Republicans done? The Democrats are forced to do this, because of what the Republicans are doing in states like Texas and Florida.

Gerrymandering is bad, no matter which side does it.

I agree, and while these maps are unfortunate, I sadly have to tolerate them until whenever we can get fair redistricting in every state.

[Tintrlvr]

They seem to have followed an odd rule of keeping at least one whole county in each district outside of Chicagoland. Not sure exactly why; maybe as a fig leaf of not-gerrymandering? But it does seem a little bit non-ideal for the two outstate D districts. In particular, if they didn't insist on putting all of Macoupin County in IL-13, they might be able to extend it further down to take in Carbondale as well. IL-17 might be able to be optimized a bit more with Rockford suburbs instead of rural areas in Knox and Whiteside Counties, too.

[Alcibiades]

They seem to have followed an odd rule of keeping at least one whole county in each district outside of Chicagoland. Not sure exactly why; maybe as a fig leaf of not-gerrymandering? But it does seem a little bit non-ideal for the two outstate D districts. In particular, if they didn't insist on putting all of Macoupin County in IL-13, they might be able to extend it further down to take in Carbondale as well. IL-17 might be able to be optimized a bit more with Rockford suburbs instead of rural areas in Knox and Whiteside Counties, too.

I think they’ve probably made the calculation that extending it down to Carbondale is not worth it as it would create an even more obviously hideous-looking district, while only providing minimal partisan advantage - Carbondale is, after all, pretty small in population.

Even more pointless were some of the maps I saw before the real ones were released which had the Downstate Dem district snaking all the way down to Cairo. The few Dem areas (i.e. those with a significant black population) left in the far south of the state have suffered brutal depopulation; Biden netted a grand total of 592 votes out of all the Illinois precincts he won south of Carbondale.

So, overall, I think this IL-13 is pretty decent from a Dem perspective.

[Oryxslayer]

They seem to have followed an odd rule of keeping at least one whole county in each district outside of Chicagoland. Not sure exactly why; maybe as a fig leaf of not-gerrymandering? But it does seem a little bit non-ideal for the two outstate D districts. In particular, if they didn't insist on putting all of Macoupin County in IL-13, they might be able to extend it further down to take in Carbondale as well. IL-17 might be able to be optimized a bit more with Rockford suburbs instead of rural areas in Knox and Whiteside Counties, too.

You don't even need to drag the seat down to carbondale. There's a handful of marginal precincts to the east of East St. Louis that can be thrown into the seat in exchange for red Macoupin. I now Shimkus used to live in these precincts, but he's gone now. Also a handful around the edges of the various IL-17 cities can be traded for parts of Knox or Fulton.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

They seem to have followed an odd rule of keeping at least one whole county in each district outside of Chicagoland. Not sure exactly why; maybe as a fig leaf of not-gerrymandering? But it does seem a little bit non-ideal for the two outstate D districts. In particular, if they didn't insist on putting all of Macoupin County in IL-13, they might be able to extend it further down to take in Carbondale as well. IL-17 might be able to be optimized a bit more with Rockford suburbs instead of rural areas in Knox and Whiteside Counties, too.

When splitting counties left and right, it helps to have at least one whole one in every district. It makes the map more defendable in general.
Especially if few whole counties are going to be in your Downstate districts at all.

[Mr. Illini]

I'd be pretty unhappy if I were Bill Foster. His new district was really close in the GOV and AG races from 2018, and that was a Dem midterm. It will probably trend D as it is exurban, but in a GOP-friendly midterm I feel like it could flip.

Meanwhile, sophomore Lauren Underwood gets a district that is 100% safe.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'd be pretty unhappy if I were Bill Foster. His new district was really close in the GOV and AG races from 2018, and that was a Dem midterm. It will probably trend D as it is exurban, but in a GOP-friendly midterm I feel like it could flip.

Meanwhile, sophomore Lauren Underwood gets a district that is 100% safe.

I don't know what your talking about. Foster's is like Biden + 16, Underwood's is only
Biden +12. Even in 2016, Fosters is still bluer than Underwoods.

[Mr.Phips]

I'd be pretty unhappy if I were Bill Foster. His new district was really close in the GOV and AG races from 2018, and that was a Dem midterm. It will probably trend D as it is exurban, but in a GOP-friendly midterm I feel like it could flip.

Meanwhile, sophomore Lauren Underwood gets a district that is 100% safe.

If a Dem is in trouble in a Biden + 16 district, he shouldn’t be in congress.

[Mr. Illini]

Foster's district was Biden +15.5, but also Pritzker +2.5, Raoul +3.5, Duckworth +3.5.

I think y'all are forgetting that suburban areas are still much more Republican downballot/locally than they are at the top of the ticket. For an apples to apples comparison, in 2016, while Foster's new district was Duckworth +3.5, it was Clinton +11.

I'm not saying that Foster is inherently in trouble, but he's a senior member of the delegation being taken from a solid D district to one that could be narrow in the right year for Republicans.

Meanwhile, Jan and Quigley are grumpy because their seats have been downgraded to D +29 or whatever.

[Not Me, Us]

Illinois Democrats are a model for the nation. Dems need to do everything possible to destroy the Republican Party, and that starts with gerrymandering as much as humanly possible.

[politicallefty]

IL-06: Clinton+8.8 -> Biden+11.7
IL-08: Clinton+15.8 -> Biden+16.1
IL-11: Clinton+10.0 -> Biden+15.1
IL-13: Clinton+8.5 -> Biden+11.5
IL-14: Clinton+9.6 -> Biden+12.2
IL-17: Clinton+7.6 -> Biden+9.1

To update this data to the revised map:

IL-06: Clinton+8.5 -> Biden+11.1
IL-08: Clinton+15.5 -> Biden+15.4
IL-11: Clinton+10.8 -> Biden+15.4
IL-13: Clinton+8.3 -> Biden+11.2
IL-14: Clinton+8.6 -> Biden+11.4
IL-17: Clinton+6.6 -> Biden+7.8

This is a step in the wrong direction from the previous map. The least secure seats all took a hit, especially IL-17 (which needs the most help of any district). I have no idea why they reduced the margin in IL-17 by that much when it's sandwiched between two Republican vote sinks.

I'm not worried about IL-13. As mentioned many times already, if Democrats can't hold a double-digit Biden district, they have much bigger worries. Pritzker won it by 16%, although some of that is probably old ancestral Democratic strength in the southern part of the state that still persists in state level politics (just as there's still some down ballot strength for Republicans in the collar counties).

[Lognog]

3rd edition of the Illinois Congressional redistricting maps are now out.

https://twitter.com/AmandaVinicky/status/1453552094707859460
https://twitter.com/JGibsonDem/status/1453552958470246402

how is this different from the last one?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I don't get the point of this new map. It makes all the marginal D seats a bit closer, while not improving COI representation in any meaningful way. Why the changes?

[Zaybay]

Yeah, I don't get the point of this new map. It makes all the marginal D seats a bit closer, while not improving COI representation in any meaningful way. Why the changes?

The reason that changes are made to begin with; an incumbent wanted some neighborhood or a piece of territory for their own (arbitrary) reasons.

It's important to remember that, while we're focused on partisanship and COIs, the folks drawing this map have to take into account their very loud allies and congressmembers. If they have demands, they have to be addressed. We can see this with the IL drafts, where Newman was making such outrageous and unhelpful demands that she had to be threatened in the initial draft (which ironically, her demand of having a white suburban seat that voted D enough were largely met in the end), or how Garcia's demand of a second Hispanic seat was actually met in the current draft.

[Tintrlvr]

They seem to have followed an odd rule of keeping at least one whole county in each district outside of Chicagoland. Not sure exactly why; maybe as a fig leaf of not-gerrymandering? But it does seem a little bit non-ideal for the two outstate D districts. In particular, if they didn't insist on putting all of Macoupin County in IL-13, they might be able to extend it further down to take in Carbondale as well. IL-17 might be able to be optimized a bit more with Rockford suburbs instead of rural areas in Knox and Whiteside Counties, too.

You don't even need to drag the seat down to carbondale. There's a handful of marginal precincts to the east of East St. Louis that can be thrown into the seat in exchange for red Macoupin. I now Shimkus used to live in these precincts, but he's gone now. Also a handful around the edges of the various IL-17 cities can be traded for parts of Knox or Fulton.

I also saw on DRA that they left out some 60% Biden areas on the west side of Decatur for some reason.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I don't get the point of this new map. It makes all the marginal D seats a bit closer, while not improving COI representation in any meaningful way. Why the changes?

The reason that changes are made to begin with; an incumbent wanted some neighborhood or a piece of territory for their own (arbitrary) reasons.

It's important to remember that, while we're focused on partisanship and COIs, the folks drawing this map have to take into account their very loud allies and congressmembers. If they have demands, they have to be addressed. We can see this with the IL drafts, where Newman was making such outrageous and unhelpful demands that she had to be threatened in the initial draft (which ironically, her demand of having a white suburban seat that voted D enough were largely met in the end), or how Garcia's demand of a second Hispanic seat was actually met in the current draft.

Right, of course. It's just ughhh. If anything, incumbent reps are the last people who should have a say in this process, and it's f**ked up that they have so much.

[Gracile]

Foster's district was Biden +15.5, but also Pritzker +2.5, Raoul +3.5, Duckworth +3.5.

I think y'all are forgetting that suburban areas are still much more Republican downballot/locally than they are at the top of the ticket. For an apples to apples comparison, in 2016, while Foster's new district was Duckworth +3.5, it was Clinton +11.

I'm not saying that Foster is inherently in trouble, but he's a senior member of the delegation being taken from a solid D district to one that could be narrow in the right year for Republicans.

Meanwhile, Jan and Quigley are grumpy because their seats have been downgraded to D +29 or whatever.

How the district voted in various downballot races (where localized factors are much more at play) is pretty irrelevant to how it will vote in a House election. In our current political climate, districts won by a party by ~15 points (and aren't really moving toward the opposing party) are simply not on the board. Keep in mind, too, that incumbents like Foster and Krishnamoorthi were pretty much going to have to lose much of their Democratic turf to ensure that all the seats in Chicagoland are sufficiently Democratic and to make room for the 2nd Latino district. Thus their districts would become more Republican by necessity.

[politicallefty]

Yeah, I don't get the point of this new map. It makes all the marginal D seats a bit closer, while not improving COI representation in any meaningful way. Why the changes?

The reason that changes are made to begin with; an incumbent wanted some neighborhood or a piece of territory for their own (arbitrary) reasons.

It's important to remember that, while we're focused on partisanship and COIs, the folks drawing this map have to take into account their very loud allies and congressmembers. If they have demands, they have to be addressed. We can see this with the IL drafts, where Newman was making such outrageous and unhelpful demands that she had to be threatened in the initial draft (which ironically, her demand of having a white suburban seat that voted D enough were largely met in the end), or how Garcia's demand of a second Hispanic seat was actually met in the current draft.

Yeah, but most of those are just tinkering around the margins. It doesn't explain why they changed IL-17, which doesn't share any Democratic territory with any other district that needs it. All they did was pull IL-16 a bit to the left for some reason.

[Gracile]

Capitol Fax is alluding to possible trouble behind the scenes where the Latino caucus in the House is split on the maps, and Welch doesn't have the votes right now-

https://capitolfax.com/2021/10/28/remap-trouble/