Illinois Redistricting Megathread
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Virginiá
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« Reply #50 on: April 28, 2020, 01:38:39 PM »
« edited: April 28, 2020, 04:04:53 PM by Virginiá »

How many people in this thread will say Illinois will become a GOP state in the 2020s to "compensate" for the GOP losing Texas?

I will predict that three users will.

I've never really understood the argument that parties will just change up their messaging and make a few policy concessions here and there, and the system will balance itself in short order. American politics has never been balanced. Republicans controlled the presidency for all but 16 years between 1860 - 1932. Democrats controlled the presidency for 20 straight years after, and controlled the US House for all but 4 years between 1932 - 1994. Most people who lived a long life post-Civil War died without ever seeing a country in which Republicans didn't dominate the White House and the Senate.

There is no rule in politics saying that a political party must quickly bounce back. Granted, since American's two major political parties are effectively institutions, they are bound to come back eventually, but it could take literally a lifetime for that to happen. Not to mention that at the state level, there are some states that have never been receptive to the opposing political party in practically their entire existence.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #51 on: April 28, 2020, 02:03:42 PM »

How many people in this thread will say Illinois will become a GOP state in the 2020s to "compensate" for the GOP losing Texas?

I will predict that three users will.

I've never really understood the argument that parties will just change up their messaging and make a few policy concessions here and there, and the system will balance itself in short order. American politics has never been balanced. Republicans controlled the presidency for all but 8 years between 1860 - 1932. Democrats controlled the presidency for 20 straight years after, and controlled the US House for all but 4 years between 1932 - 1994. Most people who lived a long life post-Civil War died without ever seeing a country in which Republicans didn't dominate the White House and the Senate.

There is no rule in politics saying that a political party must quickly bounce back. Granted, since American's two major political parties are effectively institutions, they are bound to come back eventually, but it could take literally a lifetime for that to happen. Not to mention that at the state level, there are some states that have never been receptive to the opposing political party in practically their entire existence.

16 years or 19.5 years if you include Andrew Johnson.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #52 on: April 28, 2020, 03:15:55 PM »

How many people in this thread will say Illinois will become a GOP state in the 2020s to "compensate" for the GOP losing Texas?

I will predict that three users will.

I've never really understood the argument that parties will just change up their messaging and make a few policy concessions here and there, and the system will balance itself in short order. American politics has never been balanced. Republicans controlled the presidency for all but 8 years between 1860 - 1932. Democrats controlled the presidency for 20 straight years after, and controlled the US House for all but 4 years between 1932 - 1994. Most people who lived a long life post-Civil War died without ever seeing a country in which Republicans didn't dominate the White House and the Senate.

There is no rule in politics saying that a political party must quickly bounce back. Granted, since American's two major political parties are effectively institutions, they are bound to come back eventually, but it could take literally a lifetime for that to happen. Not to mention that at the state level, there are some states that have never been receptive to the opposing political party in practically their entire existence.

Exactly. It is just simplistic hope of some that Illinois will follow its neighbors in trends despite how different its demographics are.

And anyway I already know whichever map comes out for Illinois I will oppose. I oppose gerrymandering on principle! Even when it benefits Democrats!
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Virginiá
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« Reply #53 on: April 28, 2020, 04:06:22 PM »

16 years or 19.5 years if you include Andrew Johnson.

Yeah, fair point. Added it wrong. Still, my point is still the same. Republicans had a good run of things for quite some time.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #54 on: April 28, 2020, 04:29:47 PM »

Not going to happen as I expect IL to be gerrymandered to death, but here is my attempt at a "fair" Illinois map. Might not follow the VRA though, given that one of the black districts gets replaced by a district that has almost exactly equal numbers of whites, hispanics and blacks (I would expect it to elect blacks more often than whites or hispanics though, but the racial dynamics would certainly be interesting there, particularly on primaries)





IL-01: Clinton+59, D+29 (55% black)
IL-02: Clinton+58, D+30 (54% black)
IL-03: Clinton+16, D+3
IL-04: Clinton+63, D+31 (62% hispanic)
IL-05: Clinton+64, D+30
IL-06: Clinton+16, D+6
IL-07: Clinton+73, D+35 (35% white, 32% black, 28% hispanic)
IL-08: Clinton+3, EVEN
IL-09: Clinton+34, D+13
IL-10: Clinton+23, D+7
IL-11: Trump+6, R+4
IL-12: Trump+45, R+19
IL-13: Trump+16, R+6
IL-14: Trump+3, R+4
IL-15: Trump+11, R+7
IL-16: Trump+14, R+7
IL-17: Trump+7, R+2

I imagine this should be a map that ends up as 9D-4R-4S (swing districts being 8, 11, 14 and 17). However trends are not looking great for Dems on the 17th, so I assume this could also be considered a 9D-5R-3S map.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #55 on: April 28, 2020, 04:37:35 PM »
« Edited: April 28, 2020, 05:03:41 PM by lfromnj »

Not going to happen as I expect IL to be gerrymandered to death, but here is my attempt at a "fair" Illinois map. Might not follow the VRA though, given that one of the black districts gets replaced by a district that has almost exactly equal numbers of whites, hispanics and blacks (I would expect it to elect blacks more often than whites or hispanics though, but the racial dynamics would certainly be interesting there, particularly on primaries)





IL-01: Clinton+59, D+29 (55% black)
IL-02: Clinton+58, D+30 (54% black)
IL-03: Clinton+16, D+3
IL-04: Clinton+63, D+31 (62% hispanic)
IL-05: Clinton+64, D+30
IL-06: Clinton+16, D+6
IL-07: Clinton+73, D+35 (35% white, 32% black, 28% hispanic)
IL-08: Clinton+3, EVEN
IL-09: Clinton+34, D+13
IL-10: Clinton+23, D+7
IL-11: Trump+6, R+4
IL-12: Trump+45, R+19
IL-13: Trump+16, R+6
IL-14: Trump+3, R+4
IL-15: Trump+11, R+7
IL-16: Trump+14, R+7
IL-17: Trump+7, R+2

I imagine this should be a map that ends up as 9D-4R-4S (swing districts being 8, 11, 14 and 17). However trends are not looking great for Dems on the 17th, so I assume this could also be considered a 9D-5R-3S map.

Put NE kendall county il IL 08 no reason to keep weird rural counties with Will rather than Kendall. Also try to keep Champaign and Mcclean together as they are basically a COI Imo. Keeping a Mcclean,Champaign,Macon , and Sangamon district is almost a no brainer in any fair map by keeping a competitive seat downstate(+3 Trump +6 Romney!), is very compact and is a good COI with two growing college towns being kept together. Its actually the only area of downstate IL trending D due to college counties which zoomed left in 2016 and springfield's county which holds another 1/4 of the district just about staying even while the rest of the district trended right but was only 1/4 of the district overall so it wasn't enough.
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Sol
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« Reply #56 on: April 30, 2020, 03:46:00 PM »

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but since drawing 3 black-majority districts here this time seems difficult to impossible, which of the districts is likely to become only plurality black? Geography would suggest Davis's 7th, especially since Kelly and Rush will probably nibble more deeply into Republican parts of Will County--but is there someone who the Establishment likes more?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #57 on: April 30, 2020, 03:52:05 PM »

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but since drawing 3 black-majority districts here this time seems difficult to impossible, which of the districts is likely to become only plurality black? Geography would suggest Davis's 7th, especially since Kelly and Rush will probably nibble more deeply into Republican parts of Will County--but is there someone who the Establishment likes more?

They might just make all of them 46-48% ?
The safest thing for black representatives is being willing to be drawn to central and maybe parts of Southern IL, trends there are awful for D's so fewer D primary voters as the years go on. This would easily keep a majority of the primary electorate black and maybe even bump it up.
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« Reply #58 on: April 30, 2020, 05:54:16 PM »

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but since drawing 3 black-majority districts here this time seems difficult to impossible, which of the districts is likely to become only plurality black? Geography would suggest Davis's 7th, especially since Kelly and Rush will probably nibble more deeply into Republican parts of Will County--but is there someone who the Establishment likes more?

The current IL-07 is already a plurality black district (barely - 2016 estimates put it at 49.5% black, but my guess is it is probably a little less than that now given the racial trends in the area), so it's probably the easiest seat to make a plurality black "minority coalition" district.
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Sol
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« Reply #59 on: May 25, 2020, 02:41:59 PM »
« Edited: May 25, 2020, 02:46:53 PM by Sol »

Tried to optimize the downstate IL gerrymander posted upthread by others; not actually sure if that the case.



Here's the link.

I tried to squeeze every possible bit of Democratic juices out of downstate Illinois, wriggling along the Mississippi to Carbondale and Cairo and sliding over to Danville from Champaign. Bustos's new district, IL-14, voted 51-40 for HRC and is more Democratic downballot; the open seat IL-16 voted 51-42 for Clinton. If Bustos needs more shoring up she can probably steal some of Decatur from IL-16.

I also tried to set it up so that the Chicagoland suburb districts have more room to manouver; Underwood might get historically swingy but Trump friendly territory in the NW rather than super Republican areas in the center. I kind of cheekily pulled LaSalle-Peru out as well; the segments of Bureau, Putnam, and LaSalle not included in the 14th voted for Clinton by a few points. Underwood won't have a safe seat in all likelihood but she'll hopefully have a swing district which she'll be able to hold okay.
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Sol
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« Reply #60 on: July 26, 2020, 02:25:34 PM »
« Edited: July 26, 2020, 02:30:48 PM by Sol »

I finished up the map I posted above (link)





There were a few tricky points, so I'd appreciate feedback. The first is that Democrats are a bit over-represented in Chicagoland with multiple incumbents in Republican PVI districts. The solution I decided on was cutting Newman--a full Illinois machine gerrymander probably would screw her over before any other Democrat. Of course Democrats make up her seat in downstate.

The other tricky element was handling VRA districts in the city. lfromnj will like that Kelly continues to hold territory in Kankakee. I decided to draw two majority Black districts and then draw one district with a weak but extant Black plurality--Danny Davis should be fine even though his district is about 40% Black. More potentially troubling is Quigley's district; it's now plurality Hispanic though Whites are probably still the largest group of voters. I don't know what Quigley's relationship with the Latino community is like, or really very much about him at all. If this is a major issue you could probably revive the earmuffs but I imagine the Democrats will want to satisfy the Latino community?

The VRA districts in Cook kind of wall off the White liberals from being put into Casten's district. I decided to give Casten a swingy but still winnable district--I think it voted narrowly for Romney but firmly for Clinton. Underwood gets a more Democratic district actually though not in 2016 since she takes in some rural territory which swung to Trump. There's probably a way to optimize this further though tbh it would be even uglier than what I did above.

Schakowsky and Krishnamoorthi trade territory so that Krishnamoorthi doesn't have to worry about competitive elections if the suburbs spring back.

So basically this is an 11-4-2 map, but in most years it'd be 13-4.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #61 on: July 26, 2020, 02:29:22 PM »

Sol, meh I don't think Newman will be cut.
You could still do a full sweep in Chicago land with 12 districts by dragging the black VRA districts a bit further south to take up some more land.

You could also just draw the 12th chicago land seat into Rockford and then give Bustos Champaign and just make a tossup seat in the South.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #62 on: July 27, 2020, 07:40:47 AM »

Sol, meh I don't think Newman will be cut.
You could still do a full sweep in Chicago land with 12 districts by dragging the black VRA districts a bit further south to take up some more land.

You could also just draw the 12th chicago land seat into Rockford and then give Bustos Champaign and just make a tossup seat in the South.

Depends if Rodney Davis loses, doesn’t it?  If Londrigan wins then she’ll presumably need Champaign-Urbana in her new district. 

Then again, I agree that Newman won’t get cut.  Lipinski clearly lost local establishment support since 2010 and arguably even since 2018 in that folks didn’t go to the mat for him the way they did two years ago.  I suspect Madigan saw the writing on the wall and decided to back Lipinski enough to preserve the relationship/keep him indebted if Lipinski won while not going all-in so that he could keep communication channels open with Newman if she won.  It’s sorta like the Election Day scam Clay Davis pulled on Tommy Carcetti and Clarence Royce in season 4 of The Wire. 

I doubt a Madigan cares much what Newman does as long as she doesn’t support challengers to his incumbent allies in state/local primaries and doesn’t actively try to pick fights with him.  The man has bigger fish to fry, to say nothing of being under criminal investigation.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #63 on: July 29, 2020, 01:01:50 PM »




There we go. I got all 12 chicago land incumbents with their home(Im not sure where Foster and Underwoods homes are exactly within naperville but they could precinct swap over there, it also depends on black legislators willing to take in central Illinois(which logically is a very smart idea due to IL losing a district and the bleeding of the black pop in South Chicago means its better to have 46-48% black districts with a lower D white primary electorate.

Bustos got shifted to Clinton +7 which much more favorable trends for her.

Meanwhile Rodney Davis or Londrigans seat gets pushed to Clinton +9. Likely D there. The only Chicago land seat under 10 points is Underwood at Clinton +9 and under 15 is only Sean Casten. I guess Krishnamoorti and Schneider might be a little bit unhappy with the Clinton +20 mark but everyone else should be happy. Even duckworth won all the Chicago land districts so I guess its Safe.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/16a05efc-0fcd-49c5-9d73-b2acd00dbf65


Anyway 11 Safe D with 3 Likely D(Bustos,IL-13,Underwood) for a total of 14-3.
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« Reply #64 on: July 29, 2020, 01:08:52 PM »

^Underwood's home is in your IL-11 and Foster's is in your IL-14, IIRC.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #65 on: July 29, 2020, 01:11:22 PM »
« Edited: July 29, 2020, 01:16:43 PM by lfromnj »

^Underwood's home is in your IL-11 and Foster's is in your IL-14, IIRC.
Ah my bad but I made sure it was easy to fix. Could you point where or link it?
Also realized I forgot Newmans home but meh she doesn't have very much influence.(I dont think Madigan will try to purposely screw her but just doesn't care)
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Sol
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« Reply #66 on: July 29, 2020, 02:09:52 PM »

That's a good map lfromnj! Obvs. we have our differences on sending the VRA districts to rural IL, but IMO if you're doing that you should put Danville in the southernmost Dem district instead and take out some of the GOP precincts on the outskirts of Springfield to compensate. Adding Cairo+Carbondale is useful too because it lets you abandon more R turf.
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« Reply #67 on: July 29, 2020, 02:47:53 PM »

I'm pretty sure everyone knows how I feel about redistricting so I'm not going to repeat myself again. Hopefully the dems in congress have enough balls to do it. No one should be allowed to draw maps like that, D or R
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« Reply #68 on: July 29, 2020, 02:50:54 PM »

^Underwood's home is in your IL-11 and Foster's is in your IL-14, IIRC.
Ah my bad but I made sure it was easy to fix. Could you point where or link it?
Also realized I forgot Newmans home but meh she doesn't have very much influence.(I dont think Madigan will try to purposely screw her but just doesn't care)

I don't know exactly where they live offhand, but Foster is located in the DuPage part of Naperville and Underwood in the Will County portion (basically the opposite of what you did in this map wrt to Naperville).
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lfromnj
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« Reply #69 on: July 29, 2020, 02:53:00 PM »
« Edited: July 29, 2020, 02:58:53 PM by lfromnj »

That's a good map lfromnj! Obvs. we have our differences on sending the VRA districts to rural IL, but IMO if you're doing that you should put Danville in the southernmost Dem district instead and take out some of the GOP precincts on the outskirts of Springfield to compensate. Adding Cairo+Carbondale is useful too because it lets you abandon more R turf.

True I took a bit more of Springfield because i just didn't want to deal with the Springfield precints on DRA. Overall Danville has like 20k people that are Clinton +14 which really isn't worth it. FWIW the statate house districts already go all the way to Kanakee county.  I did consider drawing it to Carbondale atleast but it doesn't really help that much.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #70 on: July 29, 2020, 03:00:16 PM »

^Underwood's home is in your IL-11 and Foster's is in your IL-14, IIRC.
Ah my bad but I made sure it was easy to fix. Could you point where or link it?
Also realized I forgot Newmans home but meh she doesn't have very much influence.(I dont think Madigan will try to purposely screw her but just doesn't care)

I don't know exactly where they live offhand, but Foster is located in the DuPage part of Naperville and Underwood in the Will County portion (basically the opposite of what you did in this map wrt to Naperville).

Ah whatever, doesn't really matter, Madigan can fix that later. Thanks though.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #71 on: October 21, 2020, 01:20:12 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2020, 01:25:32 PM by #proudtikitorchmarcher »

https://www.wbez.org/stories/its-about-one-party-rule-why-illinois-supreme-court-justice-tom-kilbride-is-in-the-fight-of-his-career/0fc55d2d-b4db-4ebd-8152-d17d4fd5577c

Quote
He’s on the Nov. 3 ballot in Will County and a swath of north-central Illinois stretching from Rock Island through Peoria through Joliet, where voters in 21 counties will decide whether he should get another 10-year term on the state Supreme Court.


It’s a referendum not only on Kilbride’s deeply textured legal career but also on his relationship with the politically toxic Illinois House speaker, Michael Madigan, a key former financial backer dubbed unflatteringly as “Public Official A” in a massive federal investigation into Springfield lobbying.
Interesting, won't affect redistricting in 2021 itself as the actual election for retention won't happen till 2022. But if the seat flips they can always cook up some excuse to say Illinois districts violate the state constitution and then place a mostly compact map that sweeps downstate and gets 1-2 seats in the burbs+mixture of downstate.

Illinois supreme court districts are 5 districts. 1 is Cook county which gets 3 seats.

There is one suburban seat+ Northern Illinois which Rs control, Obama +1 and Clinton +9.There is one North Central + Will(south suburbs) which was Obama +3 and Trump +5.  If Rs can keep their suburban seat but flip the exurban/rural seat. they can control the State supreme court. The current justice is from the Obama/Trump district.
And then 2 more Safe R central and South IL districts.
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« Reply #72 on: December 08, 2020, 05:24:07 PM »

Continuing my attempt to draw fair maps.







I only have 65/100 in the minority score. It seem quite difficult to draw 3 majority Black districts in Chicago at this point. Has this area been depopulating a lot since 2010? Because it looks like if I did some snakes I could get three 45-50% Black but not 3 majority districts. I also tried to create 2 districts with a significant Hispanic presence instead of the 1 earmuff district. So in the end I have two majority Black, 1 majority Hispanic, and 1 Black/Hispanic minority district.

Downstate, I tried to make a COI out of the East St. Louis area, and I used the Illinois River as a boundary between the 13th and 15th, although a Peoria COI could've been made as well.

In suburban Chicagoland, after creating the minority districts, I just tried to keep these compact and minimize splitting. All of the Suburban Chicago counties are only split once and Kendall is kept whole.

The strengths of the map is the proportionality, projecting 10.69 Dem seats and 6.31 GOP seats and the compactness. Any feedback is welcome.

I think anything I drew will still be better than whatever concoction Madigan comes up with.
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Torie
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« Reply #73 on: December 08, 2020, 06:35:45 PM »

Here is a reasonable map of Illinois which of course will never be drawn. Presumably something grotesque will become law to screw the Pubs out of two or three seats, that are competitive in this map.

I have this fantasy of states forming a compact, so if Illinois does its thing and takes away 2 Pub seats in erose slice and dice, then Ohio and NC retaliate in kind and down the road we go to hell, in a game that maybe in the end will not net either party overall much of anything at all, attended by some more than usual dummymander risk given how unstable  the party coalitions are at the moment. All sound and fury, with bodies strewn on the landscape, signifying no gain, only pain. The Fruited Plain is a very flawed place. Who knew?

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lfromnj
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« Reply #74 on: December 08, 2020, 06:39:51 PM »

Torie there are decent chances for cleaner IL maps depending if IL D's redistrict the state supreme court. Even if they redistrict they can't split Cook county and at a downballot level suburban D voters might still vote for an R judge.
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