Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Green Line]

@Green Line: Chuy would have nothing to worry about in this map. Hispanics outnumber whites by 57-26 and that's using ten year old numbers.

Why do the numbers say 48 hispanic, 41 white?  What am I misreading.

That's the new district 3. District 4 (Garcia's) is 57-26

I don't know exactly where Chuy lives, but you drew his south side Mexican base into the new 3rd.

Even if Chuy did run in the 4th, the point about the 3rd stands.  It would be highly unlikely to be won by a hispanic democrat.

Oh well. Minority opportunity districts are just that: opportunities. If they can't take advantage of that, then that's not the map-makers problem.

That's true.  I love it, maybe I'll send to Madigan.  Its by far the best shot at getting another conservadem from the southwest side into office!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@Oryxslayer: how were you able to get the Trump/Clinton numbers on my IL-17 so fast? I'm curious what they would be on IL-14 and IL-12 (I know she definitely won them, but not sure by how much).

Also, the point of this thread was to show that a map that leaves Republicans with just 3 seats and a swing seat is definitely doable in a 17-seat map.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Just realized my IL-12 looks like a puppy laying down and looking up lol

The more I tinker with it, the more I conclude it's impossible to draw Bustos a safe seat without going into Chicagoland and still have another Downstate seat that is lean/likely Dem.

[Oryxslayer]

@Oryxslayer: how were you able to get the Trump/Clinton numbers on my IL-17 so fast? I'm curious what they would be on IL-14 and IL-12 (I know she definitely won them, but not sure by how much).

Also, the point of this thread was to show that a map that leaves Republicans with just 3 seats and a swing seat is definitely doable in a 17-seat map.

Open up a copy of DRA 2010. Copy your districts to that map. Ignore all pop deviation where transposing your districts.

For example, your Underwood seats is R+0 and 48/45 Clinton, your Schneider seat is D+3.5 53/40 Clinton, and your Foster seat is D+2.2 and Clinton 51/41. WAYYYY too weak when all but the underwood seat should be eternally safe democratic.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@Oryxslayer: how were you able to get the Trump/Clinton numbers on my IL-17 so fast? I'm curious what they would be on IL-14 and IL-12 (I know she definitely won them, but not sure by how much).

Also, the point of this thread was to show that a map that leaves Republicans with just 3 seats and a swing seat is definitely doable in a 17-seat map.

Open up a copy of DRA 2010. Copy your districts to that map. Ignore all pop deviation where transposing your districts.

For example, your Underwood seats is R+0 and 48/45 Clinton, your Schneider seat is D+3.5 53/40 Clinton, and your Foster seat is D+2.2 and Clinton 51/41. WAYYYY too weak when all but the underwood seat should be eternally safe democratic.

Republicans have shown no capacity to win any Clinton+double digit seats. But if you are that bothered by it, justbacon strip Schakowsky’s and Quigley’s seats. It’d be unnecessarily ugly.

The pint of this exercise was to show how relatively easy it is to shore up Underwood and create a New Democratic seat in central Illinois

[Nyvin]

I don't have much trouble creating the second Hispanic seat, I have more trouble with the three AA seats.   I think they'll have to all be plurality seats by 2022.

Kane+Kendall+DeKalb is almost perfectly going to be 1 district worth of population (just barely over) and it's a district that'd be trending left fast.  

Also it's possible to make a competitive downstate seat with the area between Champaign and Peoria.   The six counties again almost perfectly make up 1 district worth of population.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2527e48d-0332-4efd-b2af-2fe3e0383bba





The Underwood seat is 50.1% Clinton to 42.6% Trump,  by 2022 it should be Safe D (if it's not already).

The downstate Champaign-Peoria seat is 47.3% Trump to 44.2% Clinton, but would be trending D, by 2022 I'd say it's lean D.

The map would probably start out 12D - 5R but gradually become 13D - 4R.  Unless 2022 is a D wave year, in which case the downstate district probably flips right away.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This map makes IL-17 a 48-47 Clinton district and keeps her base within the current seats three main cities intact.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0ed2e9ca-8400-4799-9a61-ed14bdfd5fd3

I still disagree that Schneider and Foster are vulnerable in double digit Clinton seats (see username), but I digress, lol

[Oryxslayer]

For reference, this is how you do a Dem Gerry of Illinois that leave every incumbent who matters with a seat that will be 100% safe for all 10 years. If you think Madigan is above drawing tentacles, I suggest you check out the legislative level maps for Illinois. For the record, I'm just experimenting with the orientation of IL14/16 between these maps, which is why they differ.



Keep current IL03

IL01: 67.5/28 Clinton, D+21.1 CPVI. 48% AA. South Side Base in District.
IL02: 70/26 Clinton, D+22.6 CPVI. 48.3% AA. South Cook suburb Base in District.
IL03: 57.5/37 Clinton, D+8.6 CPVI. Base in LaGrange and SW suburbs in District. Strongest White ethnic precincts removed from district.
IL04: 74/21 Clinton, D+23.6 CPVI. 64.7% Hispanic. SW Hispanic base in district and expands from 2010.
Il05: 63/30 Clinton, D+11.9 CPVI. North Side base dominates district.
IL06: 55.5/37 Clinton, D+5.9 CPVI. Downers Grove and DuPage dominate the seat.
IL07: 81.5/14.5 Clinton, D+33 CPVI. 48.3% AA. Western Chicago AA Base in seat.
IL08: 63/30.5 Clinton, D+13.6 CPVI. Schaumburg suburban base in seat.
IL09: 69/25 Clinton, D+18.6 CPVI. Evanstown base and Northern suburbs control seat.
IL10: 60/33 Clinton, D+8.75 CPVI. Democratic Lake townships control the seat.
IL11: 57.5/35 Clinton, D+7.85 CPVI. Naperville/Aurora/Bolingbrook base remains in Seat.
IL12: 71/23.5 Trump, R+21.3 CPVI. Bost’s home of Murphysboro outside seat. Davis’s home in Christian county in said seat. Miller’s home in Oakland county outside seat.
IL13: 46.7/46.5 Clinton, D+1.15 CPVI. BDL’s base of Springfield in Seat. Main GOP opponent familiar with the district outside the seat.
IL14: 49.5/43 Clinton, D+1.9 CPVI. Underwood home of Naperville in seat. Suburban base remains in seat.
IL15: 57/36 Trump, R+11.6 CPVI. Kinzinger drawn out of seat. LaHood now in unfamiliar seat.
IL16: 51.5/40.5 Clinton, D+5.1 CPVI. Base in Quad cities remains in seat. Seat reinforced from GOP trends with D-trending Bloomington and Champaign.
IL17: 66/27.5 Trump, R+18.8 CPVI. Lahood drawn out of the forgottonia based seat. Miller in a new unfamiliar seat.




Destroy current IL03

IL01: 71/24 Clinton, D+24.6 CPVI. 48.5% AA. South Side Base in District. Destroys SW White ethnics.
IL02: 71/25 Clinton, D+23.1 CPVI. 48% AA. South Cook suburb Base in District. Destroys SW White ethnics.
IL03: 69/26 Clinton, D+19.7 CPVI. 60.8% Hispanic. SW Hispanic base dominates district, with most whites of the GOP persuasion. Newman home in LaGrange removed from seat.
IL04: 68.5/25 Clinton, D+18.3 CPVI. 39.5% Hispanic. Hispanics are a large minority in this new, open seat. GOP parts of DuPage carved up using the district.
Il05: 64.5/28.5 Clinton, D+13.4 CPVI. North Side base dominates district.
IL06: 56/36 Clinton, D+5.95 CPVI. Downers Grove and DuPage dominate the seat, though with a new Aurora addition.
IL07: 82/13 Clinton, D+33.35 CPVI. 48% AA. Western Chicago AA Base in seat.
IL08: 56/38 Clinton, D+7 CPVI. Schaumburg suburban base in seat.
IL09: 67/27 Clinton, D+16.95 CPVI. Evanstown base and Northern suburbs control seat.
IL10: 58/35 Clinton, D+7.2 CPVI. Democratic Lake townships control the seat.
IL11: 57/36 Clinton, D+7.9 CPVI. Naperville/Aurora/Bolingbrook base remains in Seat. Takes in Newman’s home in exchange for Aurora.
IL12: 71/23.5 Trump, R+21.4 CPVI. Bost’s home of Murphysboro outside seat. Davis’s home in Christian county in said seat. Miller’s home in Oakland county outside seat.
IL13: 46.7/46.5 Clinton, D+1.2 CPVI. BDL’s base of Springfield in Seat. Main GOP opponent familiar with the district outside the seat.
IL14: 49/43 Clinton, D+1 CPVI. Underwood home of Naperville in seat. Suburban base remains in seat.
IL15: 59/34 Trump, R+12.9 CPVI. Kinzinger drawn out of seat. LaHood now in unfamiliar seat.
IL16: 50/42 Clinton, D+4.7 CPVI. Base in Quad cities remains in seat. Seat reinforced from GOP trends with D-trending Champaign.
IL17: 66.5/27 Trump, R+18.5 CPVI. Lahood drawn out of the forgottonia based seat. and Miller in a new unfamiliar seat.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I hope if Madigan draws something that nasty anyway that he can at least shore up IL-13 more than that. The trends in that seat are horrible

[Oryxslayer]

I hope if Madigan draws something that nasty anyway that he can at least shore up IL-13 more than that. The trends in that seat are horrible

Yep, it's not to hard to throw Champaign in IL-13, often chucking the southern arm and some redder suburbs. The trade-off though is you are now putting Bustos in the hot seat (she's the most important Dem on the map), unless of course she takes Rockford+Bloomington. Then it's Underwood's turn to sweat, and she's fighting against 12 other incumbents who want their Blue bases of support to deny opportunity to any primary challenger, and want enough Blue voters to make GE's snoozefests. I got another map that does exactly this, making Underwood's seat the near tie, and making IL13 structurally more blue. So a lot in that regard depends upon how many new Dem voters there are in the suburbs in 2020. If there's a significant trend than you have a lot more voters to reinforce the 12 others with, leaving more leftovers for Underwood and then allowing you to do the downstate trade as detailed above.

[Mr.Phips]

For reference, this is how you do a Dem Gerry of Illinois that leave every incumbent who matters with a seat that will be 100% safe for all 10 years. If you think Madigan is above drawing tentacles, I suggest you check out the legislative level maps for Illinois. For the record, I'm just experimenting with the orientation of IL14/16 between these maps, which is why they differ.



Keep current IL03

IL01: 67.5/28 Clinton, D+21.1 CPVI. 48% AA. South Side Base in District.
IL02: 70/26 Clinton, D+22.6 CPVI. 48.3% AA. South Cook suburb Base in District.
IL03: 57.5/37 Clinton, D+8.6 CPVI. Base in LaGrange and SW suburbs in District. Strongest White ethnic precincts removed from district.
IL04: 74/21 Clinton, D+23.6 CPVI. 64.7% Hispanic. SW Hispanic base in district and expands from 2010.
Il05: 63/30 Clinton, D+11.9 CPVI. North Side base dominates district.
IL06: 55.5/37 Clinton, D+5.9 CPVI. Downers Grove and DuPage dominate the seat.
IL07: 81.5/14.5 Clinton, D+33 CPVI. 48.3% AA. Western Chicago AA Base in seat.
IL08: 63/30.5 Clinton, D+13.6 CPVI. Schaumburg suburban base in seat.
IL09: 69/25 Clinton, D+18.6 CPVI. Evanstown base and Northern suburbs control seat.
IL10: 60/33 Clinton, D+8.75 CPVI. Democratic Lake townships control the seat.
IL11: 57.5/35 Clinton, D+7.85 CPVI. Naperville/Aurora/Bolingbrook base remains in Seat.
IL12: 71/23.5 Trump, R+21.3 CPVI. Bost’s home of Murphysboro outside seat. Davis’s home in Christian county in said seat. Miller’s home in Oakland county outside seat.
IL13: 46.7/46.5 Clinton, D+1.15 CPVI. BDL’s base of Springfield in Seat. Main GOP opponent familiar with the district outside the seat.
IL14: 49.5/43 Clinton, D+1.9 CPVI. Underwood home of Naperville in seat. Suburban base remains in seat.
IL15: 57/36 Trump, R+11.6 CPVI. Kinzinger drawn out of seat. LaHood now in unfamiliar seat.
IL16: 51.5/40.5 Clinton, D+5.1 CPVI. Base in Quad cities remains in seat. Seat reinforced from GOP trends with D-trending Bloomington and Champaign.
IL17: 66/27.5 Trump, R+18.8 CPVI. Lahood drawn out of the forgottonia based seat. Miller in a new unfamiliar seat.




Destroy current IL03

IL01: 71/24 Clinton, D+24.6 CPVI. 48.5% AA. South Side Base in District. Destroys SW White ethnics.
IL02: 71/25 Clinton, D+23.1 CPVI. 48% AA. South Cook suburb Base in District. Destroys SW White ethnics.
IL03: 69/26 Clinton, D+19.7 CPVI. 60.8% Hispanic. SW Hispanic base dominates district, with most whites of the GOP persuasion. Newman home in LaGrange removed from seat.
IL04: 68.5/25 Clinton, D+18.3 CPVI. 39.5% Hispanic. Hispanics are a large minority in this new, open seat. GOP parts of DuPage carved up using the district.
Il05: 64.5/28.5 Clinton, D+13.4 CPVI. North Side base dominates district.
IL06: 56/36 Clinton, D+5.95 CPVI. Downers Grove and DuPage dominate the seat, though with a new Aurora addition.
IL07: 82/13 Clinton, D+33.35 CPVI. 48% AA. Western Chicago AA Base in seat.
IL08: 56/38 Clinton, D+7 CPVI. Schaumburg suburban base in seat.
IL09: 67/27 Clinton, D+16.95 CPVI. Evanstown base and Northern suburbs control seat.
IL10: 58/35 Clinton, D+7.2 CPVI. Democratic Lake townships control the seat.
IL11: 57/36 Clinton, D+7.9 CPVI. Naperville/Aurora/Bolingbrook base remains in Seat. Takes in Newman’s home in exchange for Aurora.
IL12: 71/23.5 Trump, R+21.4 CPVI. Bost’s home of Murphysboro outside seat. Davis’s home in Christian county in said seat. Miller’s home in Oakland county outside seat.
IL13: 46.7/46.5 Clinton, D+1.2 CPVI. BDL’s base of Springfield in Seat. Main GOP opponent familiar with the district outside the seat.
IL14: 49/43 Clinton, D+1 CPVI. Underwood home of Naperville in seat. Suburban base remains in seat.
IL15: 59/34 Trump, R+12.9 CPVI. Kinzinger drawn out of seat. LaHood now in unfamiliar seat.
IL16: 50/42 Clinton, D+4.7 CPVI. Base in Quad cities remains in seat. Seat reinforced from GOP trends with D-trending Champaign.
IL17: 66.5/27 Trump, R+18.5 CPVI. Lahood drawn out of the forgottonia based seat. and Miller in a new unfamiliar seat.

Yep.  This is basically what they need to do. 

[Nyvin]

Yep.  This is basically what they need to do. 

Kinda hope they don't actually.   I want to see those long tentacle districts become extinct.    You don't see them in newer maps anymore.    I hope public pressure will be enough to discourage them from drawing that stuff.

[Mr.Phips]

Yep.  This is basically what they need to do.  

Kinda hope they don't actually.   I want to see those long tentacle districts become extinct.    You don't see them in newer maps anymore.    I hope public pressure will be enough to discourage them from drawing that stuff.

Well have to see what Republicans do in Florida, Georgia, Indiana, and North Carolina.

[Oryxslayer]

Yep.  This is basically what they need to do.  

Kinda hope they don't actually.   I want to see those long tentacle districts become extinct.    You don't see them in newer maps anymore.    I hope public pressure will be enough to discourage them from drawing that stuff.

Yeah they are kinda going extinct in most places. The trend is now favoring the concession of a pack, whereas in the past you would somehow find a way to crack said hypothetical group. However, Madigan  has no shame and is quite literally a teacher in the old school. It's very likely IL ends up with the worst visual lines in the nation, with only potential rivals being MD if a 3rd AA seat is desired, MO if KC is carved up, SC if they really want to reshuffle the coast, and TX if the GOP learns the wrong lessons from 2018/20.

[Sol]

I'd imagine as far as downstate goes, whatever Bustos wants she'll get--possibly to the partisan detriment of the other downstate D seat or Underwood.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yep.  This is basically what they need to do.  

Kinda hope they don't actually.   I want to see those long tentacle districts become extinct.    You don't see them in newer maps anymore.    I hope public pressure will be enough to discourage them from drawing that stuff.

Yeah they are kinda going extinct in most places. The trend is now favoring the concession of a pack, whereas in the past you would somehow find a way to crack said hypothetical group. However, Madigan  has no shame and is quite literally a teacher in the old school. It's very likely IL ends up with the worst visual lines in the nation, with only potential rivals being MD if a 3rd AA seat is desired, MO if KC is carved up, SC if they really want to reshuffle the coast, and TX if the GOP learns the wrong lessons from 2018/20.

From reading any Republican website, they seem to think they’ll be fine with a vote sink in Austin and shoring up GOJ when she wins this year. I don’t think that’s sustainable at all, and probably won’t even be for the 2022 map, but who knows. Travis County needs two seats, and when you add to that the suburbs are getting bluer and bluer, a one district vote sink in Austin is a very ballsy gamble.

[lfromnj]

Yep.  This is basically what they need to do.  

Kinda hope they don't actually.   I want to see those long tentacle districts become extinct.    You don't see them in newer maps anymore.    I hope public pressure will be enough to discourage them from drawing that stuff.

Yeah they are kinda going extinct in most places. The trend is now favoring the concession of a pack, whereas in the past you would somehow find a way to crack said hypothetical group. However, Madigan  has no shame and is quite literally a teacher in the old school. It's very likely IL ends up with the worst visual lines in the nation, with only potential rivals being MD if a 3rd AA seat is desired, MO if KC is carved up, SC if they really want to reshuffle the coast, and TX if the GOP learns the wrong lessons from 2018/20.

From reading any Republican website, they seem to think they’ll be fine with a vote sink in Austin and shoring up GOJ when she wins this year. I don’t think that’s sustainable at all, and probably won’t even be for the 2022 map, but who knows. Travis County needs two seats, and when you add to that the suburbs are getting bluer and bluer, a one district vote sink in Austin is a very ballsy gamble.

Travis itself cant even have 2 districts lol even after 2020.

[Nyvin]

Yep.  This is basically what they need to do.  

Kinda hope they don't actually.   I want to see those long tentacle districts become extinct.    You don't see them in newer maps anymore.    I hope public pressure will be enough to discourage them from drawing that stuff.

Yeah they are kinda going extinct in most places. The trend is now favoring the concession of a pack, whereas in the past you would somehow find a way to crack said hypothetical group. However, Madigan  has no shame and is quite literally a teacher in the old school. It's very likely IL ends up with the worst visual lines in the nation, with only potential rivals being MD if a 3rd AA seat is desired, MO if KC is carved up, SC if they really want to reshuffle the coast, and TX if the GOP learns the wrong lessons from 2018/20.

From reading any Republican website, they seem to think they’ll be fine with a vote sink in Austin and shoring up GOJ when she wins this year. I don’t think that’s sustainable at all, and probably won’t even be for the 2022 map, but who knows. Travis County needs two seats, and when you add to that the suburbs are getting bluer and bluer, a one district vote sink in Austin is a very ballsy gamble.

Travis itself cant even have 2 districts lol even after 2020.

Travis + Hays will be just over 2 districts by 2020.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yep.  This is basically what they need to do.  

Kinda hope they don't actually.   I want to see those long tentacle districts become extinct.    You don't see them in newer maps anymore.    I hope public pressure will be enough to discourage them from drawing that stuff.

Yeah they are kinda going extinct in most places. The trend is now favoring the concession of a pack, whereas in the past you would somehow find a way to crack said hypothetical group. However, Madigan  has no shame and is quite literally a teacher in the old school. It's very likely IL ends up with the worst visual lines in the nation, with only potential rivals being MD if a 3rd AA seat is desired, MO if KC is carved up, SC if they really want to reshuffle the coast, and TX if the GOP learns the wrong lessons from 2018/20.

From reading any Republican website, they seem to think they’ll be fine with a vote sink in Austin and shoring up GOJ when she wins this year. I don’t think that’s sustainable at all, and probably won’t even be for the 2022 map, but who knows. Travis County needs two seats, and when you add to that the suburbs are getting bluer and bluer, a one district vote sink in Austin is a very ballsy gamble.

Travis itself cant even have 2 districts lol even after 2020.

LOL roflmao lololol (am I doing this right?) it will be right on the border.

I am not trying to be a dick, but I just don’t see how it’s possible for Republicans to draw a map for the 2020’s that will hold up long-term with one Austin sink. Williamson County is also growing rapidly and going the way of Gwinnett County quick, to say nothing of Hays

[lfromnj]

Yep.  This is basically what they need to do.  

Kinda hope they don't actually.   I want to see those long tentacle districts become extinct.    You don't see them in newer maps anymore.    I hope public pressure will be enough to discourage them from drawing that stuff.

Yeah they are kinda going extinct in most places. The trend is now favoring the concession of a pack, whereas in the past you would somehow find a way to crack said hypothetical group. However, Madigan  has no shame and is quite literally a teacher in the old school. It's very likely IL ends up with the worst visual lines in the nation, with only potential rivals being MD if a 3rd AA seat is desired, MO if KC is carved up, SC if they really want to reshuffle the coast, and TX if the GOP learns the wrong lessons from 2018/20.

From reading any Republican website, they seem to think they’ll be fine with a vote sink in Austin and shoring up GOJ when she wins this year. I don’t think that’s sustainable at all, and probably won’t even be for the 2022 map, but who knows. Travis County needs two seats, and when you add to that the suburbs are getting bluer and bluer, a one district vote sink in Austin is a very ballsy gamble.

Travis itself cant even have 2 districts lol even after 2020.

LOL roflmao lololol (am I doing this right?) it will be right on the border.

I am not trying to be a dick, but I just don’t see how it’s possible for Republicans to draw a map for the 2020’s that will hold up long-term with one Austin sink. Williamson County is also growing rapidly and going the way of Gwinnett County quick, to say nothing of Hays

The question is do you really believe a pie slice after one sink would mean Ds eventually control 3 seats?
Even if 1 seat fails they are back at two which is what you think must be done.

[Mr. Illini]

Is there any reason to believe Madigan would particularly want to take revenge on Newman? He backed Lipinski, but it's not like Newman explicitly ran against Madigan or like Madigan has any objection to working with relatively liberal politicians.

(Image cred: Madigan circulator(?))

The thing about Chicago is that all politics are hyper-local. Madigan does not particularly care about what people on the North Shore get up to or whatever kind of progressive freaks they promote, so long as they can be reliably defeated when it comes to the important things in life (witness the political disappearance of Scott Drury, the only Democratic state rep to vote against Madigan for Speaker, as well as the utter failure of the Dan Biss 4 Gov campaign). But having an independent in Congress representing the 13th Ward?? Not acceptable!

Yes, but that shows Madigan campaigned against Newman. It doesn't suggest Newman made opposing Madigan an important part of her campaign (talking about defeating 'the machine' is pretty generic.) The machine doesn't bear grudges when it's not worthwhile - Rush challenged Daley in the mayoral election, but that hasn't harmed Rush's relationship with the machine since, because it hasn't been worth expending political capital trying to do it.

Trying to get revenge on Newman just seems like a waste of time when you can just give her a district consisting of areas outside Cook and the bits of Cook where the machine has least reach, then forget about her.

That’s the home turf, though. The district is drawn to encompass the WWC areas of the SW side and SW burbs. It’s a bit of a slap in the face to be beaten there and I’d think he may want to resurrect that.

[lfromnj]

Figured we might have one, only things we need to assume is that all incumbents besides maybe Davis survives. Other uncertainty is -2 or -1 seats. If its -2 a D seat needs to be lost in Chicago in which case its probably Marie Newman if Madigan can do it. If its -1 I doubt Madigan sacrifices a D seat.

Anyway Ds have to mainly worry about protecting or gaining 4 possible competetive districts

IL-6th- Obama +3 Romney +7 Clinton +7, trended hard left in 2016 and should only require moderate shoring up in the Dupage area for Sean Casten. Was originally a mega inner suburban R sink.
IL 14th- Originally an R sink but only Trump +4 from Romney +10. Lauren Underwood won in 2018 with a convincing margin. She looks like she will probably win(80% chance) with a perennial R challenger albiet one that atleast one in 2016 in a Romney Clinton senate district. Should still win again.

IL 17th- Originally a D northern downstate sink to take out Bobby Schilling it was a Solid Obama +17 in 2012 but trended hard right in 2016 to Trump +1. Bustos is an entrenched incumbent winning by more each year since 2010 albiet against a conspiracy theorist in 2018. IIRC her opponent has some decent fundraising but she should almost certainly win due to her incumbency and only light Trumpishness of this district not being enough to provide coattails if Trump wins again.

IL 12th/13th. Ds wanted 2 districts in Southern/Central Illinois but got none as of now due to a Dummymander due to IL 12th becoming Trump +15 from Obama +2 but IL 13th only going from Romney +0 to Trump +5 due to college counties that swung hard left in 2016. Ds will try to combine this.

Anyway other concerns include the black VRA districts which will probably have to go down a touch and become around 47% black, they may also need to send this out to eat parts of Adam Kinzingers district to shore up.

Anyway assuming the 6th is easily shored up, Lauren Underwood will need to lose some of the redder exurbs and gain college towns like Dekalb. Also may need to sneak a bit into Lake or Cook itself. Other option is to take in Rockford.

This means that Bustos would need to take in Champaign to really to be safe and this would push the  13th/12th combo to around at best Clinton +1.

So speaking specifically about Bustos assuming they can shore up Underwood without taking Rockford for her, the Ds should basically strip away all the rurals surrounding Rock Island which trended hard R and rather draw to Bloomington which trended Hard D. A simple district made was Clinton +5 but actually shifted the PVI to the right to D+1.86 from D+3. Almost zero 2016 trend is solid for Bustos and should move her to Lean/likely D even in an R wave year

Finally a Metro east to Champaign district can be drawn making a Clinton +8 district which also shouldn't be trending far right either due to Springfield and Champaign and parts of the metro east.



Anyway trying to figure out a way to draw into Chicago for the suburban districts to make all but Underwoods a Tammy Duckworth district(basically the worst Ds should do in suburban Chicago at the Federal level)

The end result assuming 17 districts and a decent year for Ds is 14 D districts(+1) and 3 R districts(-2) for a solid net gain of 3. It is almost now neccesary to draw out the black districts further, this not only depacks them but rather than taking white D leaning burbs in the south this would actually increase black D primary share against 60-70% R rurals. All D incumbents hold a seat and a new challenger can arise in the South to an open seat due to both Bost and Davis being drawn into Lahoods and Skimkus's open seat.

[jamestroll]

How many people in this thread will say Illinois will become a GOP state in the 2020s to "compensate" for the GOP losing Texas?

I will predict that three users will.

[Sol]

Illinois is an incredibly corrupt state and I have no doubts that they will draw a very nasty map but I doubt they'll take a black Chicago district out to Peru.

[lfromnj]

Illinois is an incredibly corrupt state and I have no doubts that they will draw a very nasty map but I doubt they'll take a black Chicago district out to Peru.

maybe not that far but even the Chicago districts have to reasonably expand it makes some sense to unpack the black districts and lower the non black primary vote with GOP leaning rurals/far exurbs. The key is if the Black Democrats accept this logic of course. Like the state legislative districts are also going  pretty far out for the state house itself.