2020 Sri Lankan parliamentary election August 5th (user search)
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  2020 Sri Lankan parliamentary election August 5th (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Sri Lankan parliamentary election August 5th  (Read 1098 times)
jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« on: March 19, 2020, 07:29:24 PM »
« edited: July 17, 2020, 09:25:48 AM by jaichind »

Since the Rajapaksa clan swept back to power with Gotabaya Rajapaksa elected as Prez last year and former Prez Mahinda Rajapaksa appointed PM the plan was always early parliamentary elections to create a pro-Presidential majority.

On the pro-Rajapaksa  side they have the SLPFA alliance which mainly consist of the Rajapaksa SLFP splinter SLPP, SLFP led by ex-Prez Sirisena (who allied with UNP to defeat Mahinda Rajapaksa  back in 2015) plus a bunch of other minor Leftist and nationalist parties.  Also in SLPFA are some minor pro-Rajapaksa Tamil and Muslim parties.

The anti-Rajapaksa  they have the SJB alliance which is mostly UNP plus is traditional allies including various Tamil and Muslim parties.

SLPFA is on paper more economically Lefist but is clearly the bloc for Sinhalese Buddhist nationalism while SJB are more economically Righist but more on the side of ethnic pluralism.

The main Tamil Party TNA and Leftist JVP (an old SLFP ally but now anti-Rajapaksa) will run separately.  

The SLPFA is clearly seen as the alliance of Sinhalese nationalism and if it can hold the grand alliance of SLPP and SLFP should sweep the election.   Key here is that Maithripala Sirisena led SLFP choose to ally with SLPP due to Maithripala Sirisena's breakup with UNP.  SLFP agreed to contest on a common symbol SLPFA symbol.  It is yet to be seen if they will go through with this.

Main problem on the SJB alliance is division within UNP with conflict between 2019 UNP Prez candidate Sajith Premadasa and long time UNP PM Ranil Wickremesinghe.  Sajith Premadasa captured control of UNP last year during the Prez election but Ranil Wickremesinghe is looking to win back control of the party.

With SLPFA clearly going to sweep the polls the opposition are trying to argue for a delay of the election due to the virus.  It seems the election commission, for now, have rejected that request and the election is in theory going to take place April 25th.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2020, 07:31:41 PM »

https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/sri-lanka-parliamentary-elections-postponed/article31111310.ece

Latest news is that the April 25 election will get delayed due to virus
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2020, 09:26:41 AM »

It seems the election will take place August 5th
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2020, 09:45:04 AM »

The ruling bloc seems to have consolidated behind the SLPFA alliance which critically includes ex-Prez and now PM Mahinda Rajapaksa's SLPP (which is a SLFP splinter) and SLFP led by ex-Prez Maithripala Sirisena.)  This is quite a formidable alliance and should be expected to win as long as it stays united.

The opposition camp has splintered with the UNP 2019 Prez candidate Sajith Premadasa splitting from UNP and creating his own party SJB.  The UNP split is really a result of UNP's long time leader and ex-PM Ranil Wickremesinghe and  UNP 2019 Prez candidate Sajith Premadasa struggle for power.  It seems Ranil Wickremesinghe won out so Sajith Premadasa formed his own party.  The Old UNP vote base will most likely stick with Ranil Wickremesinghe's UNP while the UNP youth vote will for sure migrate over to SJB.  The good news for the opposition camp is that 196 district seats will be elected 22 multi-member electoral districts using the D'Hondt method with an open list.  The size of these districts should be big enough that UNP and SJB running separately will not cost them too many seats although it clearly will note help.

Tamil based TNA will for sure be strong in the Tamil areas and the Leftist JVP will also run. Both are expected to align with anti-SLPFA forces.
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2020, 01:18:45 PM »

Making some assumptions on how the UNP split will work at the ground level between SJB and UNP my current guess on results are

               District      Party List        Total
SLPFA         105            14              119
SJB             53               8               61
UNP            16               3               19
TNA            15               2               17
JVP              6                2                8
SLMC           1                                  1

I am being pretty conservative on SLPFA chances.  I think in the end UNP vote will collapse and consolidate around SJB.  In heavy Muslim and Tamil areas the results will be similar to 2015 but in Sinhalese areas there will be a swing toward SLPFA relative to 2015 giving them the majority.

If something like this takes place then the return of the Rajapaksa clan will be complete.  

This amazing comeback is completely due to the stubbornness of long time UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. The Rajapaksa clan was defeated in an upset due to the surprising defection of Maithripala Sirisena from the Rajapaksa camp in 2015.  In 2015 Ranil Wickremesinghe was smart enough to run Maithripala Sirisena as the common opposition candidate to defeat the Rajapaksa clan in 2015.  After that Ranil Wickremesinghe desire for the top job himself slowing destroyed his relationship with Maithripala Sirisena leading Maithripala Sirisena to eventually throw his lot back with the Rajapaksa clan again.  In 2019 Maithripala Sirisena  was so determined to beat back Ranil Wickremesinghe that he choose not to run for re-election and de facto supported the Rajapaksa clan in the Prez election. Furthermore Ranil Wickremesinghe desire to be the UNP candidate in 2019 destroyed his relationship with UNP upcoming superstar Sajith Premadasa when he and not  Ranil Wickremesinghe became the UNP candidate and ruined any chances of the UNP winning the 2019 Prez election.  After the 2019 election defeat  Ranil Wickremesinghe tried to recapture control of UNP leading to the total braek with Sajith Premadasa who then formed SJB.  Most likely SJB will win most of the old UNP base leaving Ranil Wickremesinghe with a rump UNP after the election.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2020, 09:44:16 AM »

Voting ended.  Turnout seems to be around 70% which is on the lower end.  Most likely that will help SLPFA.

Best link to result I can find is

http://election.adaderana.lk/general-election-2020/tv/

At this stage what SLPFA seems to be pushing for a 2/3 constitutional majority as a SLPFA majority seems to be a done deal.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2020, 04:34:31 AM »

Some postal and district results coming in from the deep South like Galle and Matara.   Major blowout victories for SLPFA.  SLPP (all of SLPFA running under the SLPP symbol) getting around 73% of the vote so far.  Back in 2015 UPFA (Mahinda Rajapaksa led alliance which included SLFP) got around 50%-52% in these districts.  Back in 2010 UPFA got around 66% of the vote in these districts.  So it seems SLPP is winning a vote share margin victory in Southern Sinhalese areas at an even greater margin than the 2010 UPFA landslide.  Looks like SLPP is headed toward a 2/3 majority.  Looks like a massive victory for the Rajapaksa clan and for Sinhalese-Buddhist nationalist consolidation.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2020, 04:40:41 AM »

So far in the Deep South SJB is clearly edging out UNP by something like 17% vs 4%.  SJB will now emerge as the main alternative to SLPP with UNP which dominated Sri Lanka politics for decades now risks becoming irrelevant.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2020, 04:48:37 AM »

Early results from Tamil dominated Jaffna district shows ITAK (TNA this time running under ITAK symbol) and Tamil based rival AITC with around 46% vs 23%.  SLPP got around 9.6% so far which is a bit larger than what Gotabaya Rajapaksa got here back in 2019 and what UPFA got here in 2015.  So small swing toward SLPP in the Tamil areas so far.
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2020, 05:26:08 AM »

As more results comes in it seems the scale of the SLPP sweep is more muted.  It seems that in Southern Sinhalese areas the swing toward SLPP relative to 2019 is around 6%-7% and around 1%-2% in Tamil area.  If so then SLPP is most likely looking at a vote share of around 57% depending on how the Central Sinhalese swing.  In theory that is not enough for a 2/3 majority but with UNP vote share crashing like this there will be a bunch of wasted vote since UNP will not be viable to get seats in a bunch of districts which will throw seats toward SLPP (and SJB.) So a SLPP 2/3 majority is still possible.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2020, 05:43:22 AM »

SLPP's Tamil ally EPDP which is part of the SLPFA alliance but running separately from SLPP (so it can capture more Tamil votes) is doing well in the Tamil areas.  In Tamil based Jaffna district so far is seems to be

ITAK (TNA alliance)   31.1%
EPDP                       31.0%
AITC                        15.6%
SLPP                          6.6%

Looks like the TNA from 2015 is splintering
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2020, 05:45:49 AM »

So far with vote only in Southern Sinhalese areas plus some Tamil area votes the vote shares are

SLPP    68.2%
SJB     16.3%
JJP       6.1% (JVP led alliance)
UNP      2.6%

Clearly SLPP's vote  share will go down as Central Sinhalese, Muslim and more Tamil areas comes in.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2020, 06:40:28 AM »

Looking at the swings so far it seems the lower turnout are mostly UNP voters that are not turning over due to their frustration over the UNP-SJB civil war and split.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2020, 07:11:56 AM »

Looks like the swings toward SLPP  in Central and Northern Sinhalese if anything are larger than the Southern Sinhalese areas.  This is headed toward a SLPP blowout and most likely exceed the 2010 UPFA landslide.  What a victory for the Rajapaksa clan.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2020, 07:14:57 AM »

So far in terms of vote share it is

SLPP    68.1%
SJB     18.4%
JJP        5.0% (JVP led alliance)
ITAK     2.4% (TNA - Tamil)
UNP      2.1%

As urban areas like Columbo comes in SLPP vote share will fur sure slip but will be above 60% in the end.
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2020, 08:02:05 AM »

That's a staggeringly bad result for the UNP, surely?

It is.  But understand that SJB is a UNP splinter so any comparison of the UNP vote share should take teke the sum of SJB and UNP vote share and compare the UNP votes share of the past.  This result mostly finishes UNP and UNP will most likely merge into SJB with Ranil Wickremesinghe long political career ending in a unmitigated disaster.

Just to show what a large impact the 2019 Sri Lanka Easter bombings had.  Before that attack it seems likely but not a lock that the Rajapaksa  clan will be back.  But after that attack the Rajapaksa is clearly back and stronger than ever.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #16 on: August 06, 2020, 08:11:10 AM »
« Edited: August 06, 2020, 08:15:26 AM by jaichind »

With about 22%-23% of the vote in (my estimate) it is

SLPP    61.5%
SJB     20.4%
JJP        4.3% (JVP led alliance)
ITAK     3.8% (TNA - Tamil)
UNP      2.0%

This vote count has a Tamil lean but is missing Columbo.  I suspect the vote share for SLPP will be around something like this.  Perhaps a bit lower.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #17 on: August 06, 2020, 08:21:38 AM »

In Tamil heavy Jaffna so far it is
 
ITAK      27.7% (really just TNA)
AITC      18.0% (Tamil party)
EPDP      16.0% (SLPP ally)
SLFP      15.0% (SLPP ran here as SLFP)

The Rajapaksa brand is toxic here so SLPFA ran two lists here.  One EPDP to appeal to Tamils and SLFP (which is led by ex-Prez Maithripala Sirisena and have a moderate  Sinhalese image).  This strategy seems to be paying off as between them they are getting over 30% of the vote in a place the Rajapaksa clan should be in the single digits in terms of support. 
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #18 on: August 06, 2020, 09:40:39 AM »

With around 40% of the vote in

SLPP-SLFP-EPDP      63.5%
SJB                         21.4%
JJP                           4.1% (JVP led alliance)
ITAK                         3.3% (TNA - Tamil)
UNP                          2.1%

SLPFA going above 60% in terms of vote share and 2/3 majority now seems like a sure thing. 
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #19 on: August 06, 2020, 10:41:12 AM »

With around 55% of the vote in

SLPP-SLFP-EPDP      62.8%
SJB                         22.6%
JJP                           4.0% (JVP led alliance)
ITAK                        2.7% (TNA - Tamil)
UNP                         2.0%
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #20 on: August 06, 2020, 12:10:25 PM »

With around 67% of the vote in

SLPP-SLFP-EPDP      59.4%
SJB                         23.9%
JJP                           3.8% (JVP led alliance)
ITAK                        3.6% (TNA - Tamil)
UNP                         2.1%

A lot of Tamil Muslim and urban areas (including Columbo) came in pushing SLPFA below 60%.  As other rural Sinhalese votes come in they will head above 60% again.  I think pretty much all the areas that are more anti-Rajapaksa are in.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #21 on: August 06, 2020, 12:16:31 PM »

Tamil dominated Jaffna pretty much all in.  Very splintered vote

ITAK    31.5% (TNA led bloc)
AITC    15.4% (Tamil based party)
SLFP    13.8% (led by ex-Prez Maithripala Sirisena, moderate face of SLPP)
EPDP   12.8% (SLPP Tamil ally)
TMTK   10.0% (TNA splinter)
Ind list   4.5%
SJB       3.8%
UNP      1.8%
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #22 on: August 06, 2020, 12:35:06 PM »

With around 76% of the vote in

SLPP-SLFP-EPDP      60.4%
SJB                         23.8%
JJP                           3.8% (JVP led alliance)
ITAK                        3.0% (TNA - Tamil)
UNP                         2.1%

As more rural Sinhalese comes in SLPFA  back above 60%
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #23 on: August 06, 2020, 12:37:09 PM »

In heavy urban and Muslim areas the SLPP swing is more like 3% relative to 2019 as opposed to the 6-10% swings in rural and suburban Sinhalese areas.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #24 on: August 06, 2020, 01:42:56 PM »

With around 90% of the vote in

SLPP-SLFP-EPDP      60.1%
SJB                         23.8%
JJP                           3.9% (JVP led alliance)
ITAK                        2.9% (TNA - Tamil)
UNP                         2.1%

All outstanding votes are in rural Sinhalese so SLPFA will be above 60% for sure but only barely.  The urban and Muslim anti-Rajapaksa vote mostly come out.
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