2020 California Ballot Propositions Megathread
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NYDem
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« Reply #25 on: September 19, 2020, 03:51:46 PM »

Just going to drop by and say: Everyone voting against 16 should be ashamed of themselves

The people voting against repealing the state anti-discrimination amendment should be ashamed of themselves? Sure.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #26 on: September 19, 2020, 05:00:51 PM »

I'm strongly against Prop 16. I'm disappointed in Democrats that are supporting it. I don't think the intentions are bad, but it's trying to take the easy way out by using a sledgehammer when you need a scalpel in terms of solving the issues at hand. Discrimination is discrimination. Allowing someone to get ahead because of their race, gender, ethnicity, etc is discrimination, no matter who does. It is wrong when an individual does it. It is wrong when business does it. It is wrong when the state does it.
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Intell
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« Reply #27 on: September 20, 2020, 04:48:28 AM »

Just going to drop by and say: Everyone voting against 16 should be ashamed of themselves

Yes being racist against working class asians is good!
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #28 on: September 22, 2020, 02:33:27 PM »

If anyone want to discuss these I'm more than happy to.

You're so close to nailing my thoughts exactly that it's making me reconsider my one disagreement with you, which is Prop 20. My first reaction is that it will significantly increase prison population, almost exclusively for people who have been charged with theft, some as low as $250, which seems excessive. Has there been a significant uptick in related property crimes in California that I'm not aware of, that calls for this sort of change right now?
Yes there has been: Regarding property crimes, Proposition 47 had no apparent impact on burglaries or auto thefts, but it did contribute to an increase in larcenies—such as theft from motor vehicles and shoplifting—which increased by roughly 9 percent, or about 135 more thefts per 100,000 residents. This proposition would also reclassify crimes like sexual assault and domestic violence as a violent crime. Under 2014’s Prop. 47, rape of an unconscious person, trafficking a child for sex, assault of a peace officer, felony domestic violence and other similar crimes were re classified as non violent crimes and this proposition would change that.
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Crane
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« Reply #29 on: September 22, 2020, 09:55:00 PM »

Just going to drop by and say: Everyone voting against 16 should be ashamed of themselves

Yes being racist against working class asians is good!

Woe, pity, sadness.

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Donerail
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« Reply #30 on: September 22, 2020, 11:11:01 PM »

Just going to drop by and say: Everyone voting against 16 should be ashamed of themselves

Yes being racist against working class asians is good!

Woe, pity, sadness.
In case you are not aware, "race" is a broad category that in the United States is used to encompass a variety of different subgroups. The "black" category, for instance, includes Nigerian-Americans, who on average earn more than whites; the "Asian" category includes Southeast Asians, who on average make well below the average for whites, as well as Indians, who are the highest-earning ethnic group in the country.

It is not clear to me what discriminating against the poorer subgroups in the white and Asian categories in favor of the richer subgroups in the other two categories is supposed to accomplish, as a matter of public policy, apart from improving some surface-level diversity numbers. It's certainly not a targeted proposal to "give disadvantaged minorities a chance to get ahead in life".
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #31 on: September 22, 2020, 11:29:06 PM »

It's kinda sad I don't get to vote on these props anymore. 2016 was the last time I got to do it.

Anyway:

14. Yes
15. Yes -- It is imperative that Prop 15 passes
16. Yes -- I'm not a supporter of affirmative action, but I would like to send policymakers a clear signal that they need to do something to combat ongoing racial discrimination. And as it stands, this prop is very unlikely to pass.
17. Yes
18. Sure, whatever
19. Yes
20. Absolutely Not
21. Unsure -- I don't support rent control, but again, I'd like to send a message to policymakers that they should take action on housing policy.
22. Tentative No -- Feel bad for gig workers, but it's not healthy that many have come to rely on them for FTE work. Tentative no because AB 5 is full of exemptions.
23. Yes
24. Undecided
25. Tentative yes -- Not a fan of THE ALGORITHM, but I'm not sure we'll get another chance to vote on cash bail reform anytime soon.
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Crane
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« Reply #32 on: September 22, 2020, 11:38:03 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2020, 11:41:15 PM by Corbynite »

Just going to drop by and say: Everyone voting against 16 should be ashamed of themselves

Yes being racist against working class asians is good!

Woe, pity, sadness.
In case you are not aware, "race" is a broad category that in the United States is used to encompass a variety of different subgroups. The "black" category, for instance, includes Nigerian-Americans, who on average earn more than whites; the "Asian" category includes Southeast Asians, who on average make well below the average for whites, as well as Indians, who are the highest-earning ethnic group in the country.

It is not clear to me what discriminating against the poorer subgroups in the white and Asian categories in favor of the richer subgroups in the other two categories is supposed to accomplish, as a matter of public policy, apart from improving some surface-level diversity numbers. It's certainly not a targeted proposal to "give disadvantaged minorities a chance to get ahead in life".

Do you honestly believe that, Donerail?

Do you honestly believe, in your heart of hearts, that affirmative action programs often benefit wealthy Nigerians at the expense of impoverished Thai Americans? In a country where Asians make four times as much as African Americans? And that's what you're going with as your opposing stance? Because that ignores all logic and reason. Statistical anomalies are just that.

Affirmative action is designed to be the opposite of negative action which is what black Americans and Hispanics have received for centuries. To say these institutions in California aren't able to consider the unique challenges one might have faced because of race, which are still an issue and certainly were a clear and present issue in 1996, with people who had lived through Jim Crow and California's deeply racist recent past as evidenced by legislation such as Proposition 187, is not coming from any coherent ideology which you couch in theoretical  ivory tower language. Not to mention the wide difference between funding for wealthy suburban schools and inner city schools.

It's a very base fear that people of a lower caste may one day muscle their way into the privileged experiences wealthy whites and Asians have enjoyed in this country for decades. Yes, not all of them have, and obviously there are exceptions to every rule,  but the numbers don't lie. There is a significant and systemic disparity of opportunity in America that leads to worse outcomes for the groups in question.
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Donerail
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« Reply #33 on: September 23, 2020, 12:48:49 AM »

In case you are not aware, "race" is a broad category that in the United States is used to encompass a variety of different subgroups. The "black" category, for instance, includes Nigerian-Americans, who on average earn more than whites; the "Asian" category includes Southeast Asians, who on average make well below the average for whites, as well as Indians, who are the highest-earning ethnic group in the country.

It is not clear to me what discriminating against the poorer subgroups in the white and Asian categories in favor of the richer subgroups in the other two categories is supposed to accomplish, as a matter of public policy, apart from improving some surface-level diversity numbers. It's certainly not a targeted proposal to "give disadvantaged minorities a chance to get ahead in life".

Do you honestly believe that, Donerail?

Do you honestly believe, in your heart of hearts, that affirmative action programs often benefit wealthy Nigerians at the expense of impoverished Thai Americans? In a country where Asians make four times as much as African Americans? And that's what you're going with as your opposing stance? Because that ignores all logic and reason. Statistical anomalies are just that.

Affirmative action is designed to be the opposite of negative action which is what black Americans and Hispanics have received for centuries. To say these institutions in California aren't able to consider the unique challenges one might have faced because of race, which are still an issue and certainly were a clear and present issue in 1996, with people who had lived through Jim Crow and California's deeply racist recent past as evidenced by legislation such as Proposition 187, is not coming from any coherent ideology which you couch in theoretical  ivory tower language. Not to mention the wide difference between funding for wealthy suburban schools and inner city schools.

It's a very base fear that people of a lower caste may one day muscle their way into the privileged experiences wealthy whites and Asians have enjoyed in this country for decades. Yes, not all of them have, and obviously there are exceptions to every rule,  but the numbers don't lie. There is a significant and systemic disparity of opportunity in America that leads to worse outcomes for the groups in question.
Generally, it is not a tremendously effective rhetorical strategy to ask if your opponent actually believes what he is saying; the answer is almost always yes.

Affirmative action has succeeded tremendously in allowing the children of black and Hispanic professionals to experience the same elite educational experiences traditionally enjoyed by the children of white professionals. It has not succeeded on any other count.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #34 on: September 23, 2020, 09:51:06 AM »

There's another poll in on Prop. 22:

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-09-23/poll-proposition-22-california-ab5-uber-lyft-drivers-independent-contractors-employment

UC Berkley Institute of Government of Government Studies (released by the Los Angeles Times)
September 9-15
5900 likely voters
MoE: 2%

FOR 39%
AGAINST 36%
UNDECIDED 25%
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lfromnj
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« Reply #35 on: September 23, 2020, 10:13:04 AM »

It's kinda sad I don't get to vote on these props anymore. 2016 was the last time I got to do it.

Anyway:

14. Yes
15. Yes -- It is imperative that Prop 15 passes
16. Yes -- I'm not a supporter of affirmative action, but I would like to send policymakers a clear signal that they need to do something to combat ongoing racial discrimination. And as it stands, this prop is very unlikely to pass.
17. Yes
18. Sure, whatever
19. Yes
20. Absolutely Not
21. Unsure -- I don't support rent control, but again, I'd like to send a message to policymakers that they should take action on housing policy.
22. Tentative No -- Feel bad for gig workers, but it's not healthy that many have come to rely on them for FTE work. Tentative no because AB 5 is full of exemptions.
23. Yes
24. Undecided
25. Tentative yes -- Not a fan of THE ALGORITHM, but I'm not sure we'll get another chance to vote on cash bail reform anytime soon.

Are you really that sure Prop 16 won't pass?
Washington barely failed to pass it last year in a low turnout election although that might have helped the AA supporters due to the best group for turnout being woke white college liberals.
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Intell
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« Reply #36 on: September 24, 2020, 01:50:03 AM »

Just going to drop by and say: Everyone voting against 16 should be ashamed of themselves

Yes being racist against working class asians is good!

Woe, pity, sadness.
In case you are not aware, "race" is a broad category that in the United States is used to encompass a variety of different subgroups. The "black" category, for instance, includes Nigerian-Americans, who on average earn more than whites; the "Asian" category includes Southeast Asians, who on average make well below the average for whites, as well as Indians, who are the highest-earning ethnic group in the country.

It is not clear to me what discriminating against the poorer subgroups in the white and Asian categories in favor of the richer subgroups in the other two categories is supposed to accomplish, as a matter of public policy, apart from improving some surface-level diversity numbers. It's certainly not a targeted proposal to "give disadvantaged minorities a chance to get ahead in life".

Do you honestly believe that, Donerail?

Do you honestly believe, in your heart of hearts, that affirmative action programs often benefit wealthy Nigerians at the expense of impoverished Thai Americans? In a country where Asians make four times as much as African Americans? And that's what you're going with as your opposing stance? Because that ignores all logic and reason. Statistical anomalies are just that.

Affirmative action is designed to be the opposite of negative action which is what black Americans and Hispanics have received for centuries. To say these institutions in California aren't able to consider the unique challenges one might have faced because of race, which are still an issue and certainly were a clear and present issue in 1996, with people who had lived through Jim Crow and California's deeply racist recent past as evidenced by legislation such as Proposition 187, is not coming from any coherent ideology which you couch in theoretical  ivory tower language. Not to mention the wide difference between funding for wealthy suburban schools and inner city schools.

It's a very base fear that people of a lower caste may one day muscle their way into the privileged experiences wealthy whites and Asians have enjoyed in this country for decades. Yes, not all of them have, and obviously there are exceptions to every rule,  but the numbers don't lie. There is a significant and systemic disparity of opportunity in America that leads to worse outcomes for the groups in question.


Give me proof that affirmative action helps working class blacks, and yes affirmative action is designed to help the top of a lower caste, and hurts the poor of the more 'privileged caste' and it is designed to be that way, so universities can have diversity but not poor people.  Also saying asians are rich showcases your racism which is typical from white progressives.
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warandwar
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« Reply #37 on: September 24, 2020, 11:38:46 AM »

There is no one "affirmative action." Many different policies, and all of which have gotten watered down by the courts and the racists.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #38 on: September 24, 2020, 03:55:58 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2020, 04:00:07 PM by Monstro »

I damn-near forgot there's an affirmative action prop on the ballot. I've seen tons more campaigning on the split roll tax & gig drivers props (The latter exclusively from the Yes side).

I almost feel folks outside of California are more invested in 16 than us folks actually casting a ballot on it
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pikachu
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« Reply #39 on: September 25, 2020, 02:07:34 PM »

Berkeley-IGS polls on the contentious props

Prop 15 (split roll): 49-34-17
Prop 16 (AA): 33-41-26
Prop 21 (rent control): 37-37-26
Prop 22 (gig workers): 39-36-25

* Good to see Prop 15 almost reaching the magic 50% mark. Really important for a big win here so further Prop 13 reform can be on the table.

* Contrary to popular narratives, Prop 16 has a plurality of Asians rn and isn't doing any better among Asians than Latinos. Also, the Black support is underwhelming (51-28) Also at 33-41 with 18-29 voters. Tbh, I thought this one was going to easily pass when it was announced with the direction things have been going over the last few years, but it's starting to look like another disconnect between elite liberals and minorities.

* Unsurprisingly, a large age split on Prop 21. Looks like it's going to do better than the last rent control initiative, but definitely looks like a pure toss-up.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #40 on: September 25, 2020, 04:46:50 PM »

It's kinda sad I don't get to vote on these props anymore. 2016 was the last time I got to do it.

Anyway:

14. Yes
15. Yes -- It is imperative that Prop 15 passes
16. Yes -- I'm not a supporter of affirmative action, but I would like to send policymakers a clear signal that they need to do something to combat ongoing racial discrimination. And as it stands, this prop is very unlikely to pass.
17. Yes
18. Sure, whatever
19. Yes
20. Absolutely Not
21. Unsure -- I don't support rent control, but again, I'd like to send a message to policymakers that they should take action on housing policy.
22. Tentative No -- Feel bad for gig workers, but it's not healthy that many have come to rely on them for FTE work. Tentative no because AB 5 is full of exemptions.
23. Yes
24. Undecided
25. Tentative yes -- Not a fan of THE ALGORITHM, but I'm not sure we'll get another chance to vote on cash bail reform anytime soon.

Are you really that sure Prop 16 won't pass?
I'm about 90% sure. And it doesn't matter anyway since I can't vote on it.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #41 on: September 25, 2020, 09:39:47 PM »

14 Yes
15 Yes
16 No
17 Yes
18 Yes
19 Yes - Howard Jarvis supports No
20 No
21 Yes
22 No - eff off Uber
23 No
24 No
25 No
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #42 on: September 25, 2020, 10:09:02 PM »
« Edited: September 25, 2020, 10:31:28 PM by Blairite »

14. Yes
15. YES YES YES YES YES! (and eventually abolish prop 13)
16. Tentative no Affirmative action makes sense, but I don't trust Californian politicians with massive leeway on this.
17. Yes
18. Yes
19. Yes
20. No
21. NO NO NO NO NO! (why do Californians want to kill our economy?)
22. Tentative yes (people should obviously get benefits but benefits shouldn't be tied to jobs. Theory aside, I think this reduces unemployment during a downturn more than it pushes down wages).
23. No
24. No
25. Yes
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ottermax
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« Reply #43 on: September 25, 2020, 10:41:23 PM »

I vote in LA now so I'm curious to learn more about some of these props. Excited to participate in California's insane direct democracy process.

Tentatively this is what I'm thinking:
14: yes
15: yes
16: yes - why not, the data shows that the removal of affirmative action led to worse outcomes to Black and Latino Californians
17: yes
18: yes
19: not sure
20: not sure
21: not sure
22: no
23: no
24: yes?
25: no - cash bail isn't great, but algorithms seem prone to bias
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #44 on: September 27, 2020, 11:35:35 PM »

polls from Redfield Wilton: https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/california-presidential-proposition-22-and-proposition-24-voting-intentions-19-21-september/

Prop 22
Yes: 53%
No: 27%

Prop 24
Yes: 60%
No: 17%
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #45 on: September 27, 2020, 11:51:00 PM »

Missed this one earlier Probolsky Research: https://www.probolskyresearch.com/2020/09/05/new-poll-ca-proposition-15/

Prop 15
Yes: 41%
No: 49%

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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #46 on: September 28, 2020, 08:05:20 AM »


September 19-21
Of 1915 likely voters

Prop 22: don't know 20%
Prop 24: don't know 23%
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Donerail
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« Reply #47 on: September 28, 2020, 04:15:28 PM »

Uber makes you "confirm" some kind of statement acknowledging that your ride prices will go up unless you vote Yes on 22 before you can use their app. Which suggests they are very scared and think it will not pass...
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #48 on: September 30, 2020, 04:48:52 AM »

A new SUSA poll is in!

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d15fdb0d-701d-495c-a67f-e17bfcc3bf92
September 26-28
588 likely voters
MoE: 5.4%

15
Yes 49%
No 21%
Not certain 30%

16
Yes 40%
No 26%
Not certain 34%

17
Yes 55%
No 19%
Not certain 26%

19
Yes 56%
No 10%
Not certain 34%

20
Yes 35%
No 22%
Not certain 43%

21
Yes 46%
No 27%
Not certain 27%

22
Yes 45%
No certain 31%
Not certain 25%

23
Yes 49%
No 23%
Not certain 28%
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #49 on: September 30, 2020, 10:10:04 PM »

Odd results compared to other polls.

On a separate note I saw the most dishonest add on proposition 16. It equated being against affirmative action to being a white supremacist. Most disgraceful proposition add I've even seen.
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