D internal Democracy Corp - Battleground States - Biden leads +4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://mailchi.mp/gqrr/results-from-democracy-corps-survey-in-presidential-and-senate-battleground?e=3665d9c0b5

Biden 49
Trump 45


 

[n1240]

Not a full national poll, only "battleground states" - sample is from these 16 states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin

Trump won these states collectively by 1 point in 2016.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not a full national poll, only "battleground states" - sample is from these 16 states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin

Trump won these states collectively by 1 point in 2016.

So this is pretty good?

[Eraserhead]

Not great.

[Ronnie]

Not great.

It represents a 5 point swing in those states to Biden from 2016.  That would in fact be great if it actually happens, since it means Biden wins the election, probably by a comfortable EC margin.  With that in mind, this election was never going to be a runaway win for the Democrats.  Even if polls largely show Biden having a bit of cushion now, it's going to take a lot of hard work to beat Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not a full national poll, only "battleground states" - sample is from these 16 states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin

Trump won these states collectively by 1 point in 2016.

This poll isnt a battleground poll, it says Biden leads Trump 49-45 head to head and Bernie loses by 1 head to head

[soundchaser]

This poll isnt a battleground poll, it says Biden leads Trump 49-45 head to head and Bernie loses by 1 head to head

The article specifies “in these battleground states” numerous times. This is not a national poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll isnt a battleground poll, it says Biden leads Trump 49-45 head to head and Bernie loses by 1 head to head

The article specifies “in these battleground states” numerous times. This is not a national poll.

It says in a natl matchup,  believe what you want, it's a national poll

[soundchaser]

“ Democracy Corps conducted a 1,000-sample mostly cell-phone survey and a 2,900-sample web panel survey on behalf of the non-profit and non-partisan Center for Voter Information (CVI) in 16 battleground states.”

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I posted this I get these all the time in my emails and I know the difference between a natl poll and a state by state poll

Just because it contradicts the Emerson poll, its valid. Biden isnt gonna win by 7 or 10 points anyways

[n1240]

Not a full national poll, only "battleground states" - sample is from these 16 states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin

Trump won these states collectively by 1 point in 2016.

So this is pretty good?

Feels in line with current national polling, nationwide average has Biden at around +7 which is about 5 points better than Clinton's popular vote victory in 2016. Still it's a long way to go before election day and I wouldn't really consider general election polling data at this point in time to be that valuable in predicting the general election outcome. The numbers may also be a bit rosy for Biden considering the source, but I'd say this is a decent poll overall for him.

The poll also seems to have asked Trump vs Biden and Trump vs Biden vs Amash, the two-way test has Biden up 51-46, while the 3-way test has Biden up 49-45-5.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I dont know why we get generic numbers in a poll that doesnt have state by state numbers

[Pollster]

I posted this I get these all the time in my emails and I know the difference between a natl poll and a state by state

Headline literally reads “Results From Democracy Corps Survey in Presidential and Senate Battleground”

[President Johnson]

Colorado as swing state... lmao

[Catalyst138]

Not a full national poll, only "battleground states" - sample is from these 16 states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin

Trump won these states collectively by 1 point in 2016.

Texas really should be on that list. I mean, New Mexico over Texas??

[Gracile]

These battleground state polls are incredibly unhelpful because the cumulative margin among all of these states doesn't say much about how each individual state will vote. They should either poll individual states or do a full national poll.

[Eraserhead]

Colorado as swing state... lmao

I would qualify a state that Clinton won by less than 5% as one (especially when Gary Johnson ate over 5% of the vote).

[It’s so Joever]

Colorado as swing state... lmao

I would qualify a state that Clinton won by less than 5% as one (especially when Gary Johnson ate over 5% of the vote).

A large number of Gary Johnson voters in CO would have voted for Clinton over Trump if they had too, the same goes for NM.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Half this thread is OC arguing this is a national poll when his own source says it isn't lol

[slothdem]

Consistent with this being a Biden+7 environment, which vibes with the h2h's, state polls, and gcb.

[AGA]

I hate these polls that just show the results for an aggregate region called "battleground states." I just want to see individual states.

[BlueSwan]

These battleground state polls are incredibly unhelpful because the cumulative margin among all of these states doesn't say much about how each individual state will vote. They should either poll individual states or do a full national poll.

Yup.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

These battleground state polls are incredibly unhelpful because the cumulative margin among all of these states doesn't say much about how each individual state will vote. They should either poll individual states or do a full national poll.

Yup.

Mhm.

[Hammy]

Internal = toss it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just because you dont believe it and it matches most other polls, Biden's margin is within the margin of error doesnt mean it's not credible. Trump hasnt run any ads against Biden. The margins was gonna get close anyways.