FL (Atlas Intel) - Trump -0.5 v Biden, +8 v Sanders

[Lisa's voting Biden]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200316_FL.pdf

[Catalyst138]

I think Florida was created in a lab to be the worst fit for Bernie Sanders as possible.

Southern state, full of retirees, above-average black population, and most of the Hispanics are Cubans? You couldn't come up with a less favorable situation for Bernie if you tried!

[Bidenworth2020]

Florida is interesting in that Biden and Trump are uniquely strong there. Could make for a nailbiter on election night.

[krb08]

I really do think Florida is a tossup in 2020 with Biden. Here's why:

In 2016, Clinton lost Florida by 1 point. She did very well in Miami-Dade, where many Cuban Republicans voted against Trump and downballot Republican otherwise. She greatly underperformed in the rest of the state.

In 2018, Gillum and Nelson barely lost. They both improved a lot in most of the state, and if Clinton's margin in Miami-Dade stayed the same for them, they would've won. But remember: Cuban Republicans that dislike Trump still vote for other Republicans. They did so in these races, making the Dem margin in Miami-Dade smaller than 2016 and causing their narrow losses.

In 2020, Biden can both improve from 2016 in Central and North Florida, and keep Clinton's margin in Miami-Dade, resulting in a win. Many anti-Trump Cuban Republicans will vote for a moderate Democrat over Trump just like they did in 2016. And Biden only has to improve statewide by a single point to eke out a win. It's 100% doable and the path is clear as day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ has a better chance of going D than FL due to the Cuban embargo.  It's no question,  that FL wants to keep it; whereas, Dems want to get rid of it

[ajc0918]

Biden can win Florida.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is gonna win FL 244 Trump v Biden 209, it's a low tax state. Gwyn Graham was the key to winning FL but she lost. Trump will win by the same margin as last time even against Biden

[SnowLabrador]

I'll believe Florida flipping when I see it. Bill Nelson couldn't win in a D+9 year, so I think it's Lean if not Likely R.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Guys Florida is voting for Trump I tried to warn this forum in 2018 that Nelson was going to lose and no one believed me the demographics here favor Trump he's still quite popular in the state and all of the times polling in Florida underestimates Republican support I will not believe Biden wins the state until it's called for him on Election night

[Bojack Horseman]

There’s the Cuban factor right there.