Scotland/Wales 2007

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In the North look at Delyn (at Westminster moderately safe but in the Assembly a marginal),

Tory commuters are more likely to vote at Assembly level than Labour people living in council estates and so on.

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Strictly speaking none of them are marginal; all AM's have majorities over the magic 10%. And again, turnout patterns are the main reason (though it's Plaid commuters in the case of Caerphilly. And if Labour lose that seat it'll be become of Ron Davies).

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One or two, probably at the expense of several different parties (if you want a big, big shock, wait for Ynys Môn; not that you should expect an upset there, not at all. But don't be surprised if it turfs the leader of Plaid Cymru for an agrarian Indie who was once a fairly wettish Tory). But not as many as in Scotland.

[minionofmidas]

Quite how close was Conwy last time around? That's a mighty pale shade of green.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quite how close was Conwy last time around? That's a mighty pale shade of green.

Very, very close, though not as close as Llanelli; the Maesgeirchen estate tipped it to Labour. But that's in Arfon now.
Btw, the new Aberconwy would have been just about the safest Tory seat in Wales a generation ago.

[Harry Hayfield]

Aberconwy 2003 (as calculated by the University of Plymouth)

Plaid 4,894 (29.68%)
Lab 4.581 (27.78%)
Con 4,487 (27.21%)
Lib Dem 2,526 (15.32%)

Aberconwy 2005 (as calculated by the University of Plymouth)

Lab 8,994 (33.00%)
Con 7,924 (29.07%)
Lib Dem 5,197 (19.07%)
Plaid 3,818 (14.01%)
Green 512 (1.88%)
UKIP 296 (1.09%)
Others 517 (1.90%)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Personally I think they've overestimated Labour in both cases; but by how much?

Btw, did anyoone else notice that the Labour and LibDem attacks on Plaid's spending plans the other day could have been written by the same person and used the same sort of language ("Planet Plaid" and "Sci-Fi Spending Plans". Can't recall which party used which...) ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For those interested in such things... the Tories, Labour and Plaid have all had senior people in Colwyn Bay (biggest town in Clwyd West) today... the LibDems have apparently sent lots and lots of people to Ceredigion (while their leader has gone on a tour of longshot hopes)... and the other North Wales constituencies Morgan has been in recently are Arfon, Aberconwy and Wrexham.

Oh, and the former Labour M.P. for Clwyd West has said that he'll be voting Plaid on the list and Labour at constituency level (on the basis that he wants Wigley to return to the Assembly and that this would cost the Tories a list seat). Party rules on publically endorsing other parties and so on are rather strict and usually end in explusion (which he knows, obviously).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For those interested in such things... the Tories, Labour and Plaid have all had senior people in Colwyn Bay (biggest town in Clwyd West) today

Or are they? Apparently David Cameron will be going to Llandudno instead...

[Harry Hayfield]

Predict the result of Scotland 2007 and win cutouts of your favourite main Scottish party leader http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6611199.stm

[minionofmidas]

Predict the result of Scotland 2007 and win cutouts of your favourite main Scottish party leader http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6611199.stm

They don't have a cutout Sheridan. I'm not playing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Presumably the winner will turn out to be someone who hates Salmond and wanted something to throw things at?

[afleitch]

They don't have a cutout Sheridan. I'm not playing.

That's because Sheridan wants it for his own front room

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Whoever wrote the BBC's pre-election (Wales, Scotland, locals) summary clearly hasn't got a clue as to what's going on... here's the Wales part...

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Let's point out a few things wrong with this shall we?

1. Not only does Labour expect to be the largest party, but everyone else (including the media, the polls, other parties...) does as well.

2. There is no chance of the Tories and LibDems gaining enough seats to form a coalition between them. This is, literally, the first time I have seen that claim made by anyone in the media (and I've happily (?) wasted much time reading politics "coverage" in the Daily Post, the Bangor and Anglesey Mail and, when I can get it, the Western Mail. I've even scanned through Y Cymro a couple of times. And boy does the Welsh media suck...)

3. Plaid are already the largest opposition group.

4. And while there has been much coalition speculation, most of it has revolved around Labour; whether it will be a Labour/LibDem coalition or a Labour/Plaid deal of some kind. Speculation about a non-Labour coalition involving all other parties basically died after the Budget vote, though hasn't entirely gone away yet.

This is almost as bad as a recent gem from the Indie; they claimed that in Blaenau Gwent, Labour risked losing the seat to Trish Law.

...

Just

...

Look, does the BBC want to fuel the resentment many in Wales (more than vote Plaid Cymru, that's for sure) feel towards London?

[afleitch]

Look, does the BBC want to fuel the resentment many in Wales (more than vote Plaid Cymru, that's for sure) feel towards London?

That's why a stronger Welsh based media (print too) needs to be established. Of course if it is it will be immediately accused of being Cardfiff-centric, but that's neither here nor there!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's why a stronger Welsh based media (print too) needs to be established. Of course if it is it will be immediately accused of being Cardfiff-centric, but that's neither here nor there!

Cardiff is but a western outpost of Babylondon!11!!

I agree, o/c. If there's a single reason for turnout in Wales being lower than Scotland (which seems inevitable; and I think the gap could be rather large) it's that.

[Hash]

Will it be possible to follow Scottish, Welsh, and local results from an online source/news site?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Will it be possible to follow Scottish, Welsh, and local results from an online source/news site?

Yes; the BBC always covers U.K elections online

[afleitch]

I will be at the count from 10 tomorrow so I will be unable to give you some local tidbits, results and hearsay

It is however likely that the media will 'call' seats before they are announced.

[Harry Hayfield]

Will it be possible to follow Scottish, Welsh, and local results from an online source/news site?

Yes; the BBC always covers U.K elections online

Plus councils often have a dedicated elections element that usually updates in real time.

[Hash]

Afleitch, you're running for council in which seat/region again?

[Verily]

Afleitch, you're running for council in which seat/region again?

Hamilton South is the Parliamentary seat he lives in.

[afleitch]

Afleitch, you're running for council in which seat/region again?

Hamilton South is the Parliamentary seat he lives in.

Yes; I'm running for the local council (South Lanarkshire) in Ward 17: Hamilton North and East.

[Harry Hayfield]

The candidates duly nominated for Hamilton and North East are:

Hugh Clements (Ind)
Barry Douglas (SNP)
Andrew Leitch (Con)
David McLachlan (Lab)
Mary Smith (Lab)
James Ward (Ind)

[afleitch]

McLachlan is vice chair of the SPT - the Glasgow/Strathclyde Transport operator. He's a potential big scalp.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Feel like a little rant:

Just wondering but... am I the only one who's getting increasingly sick of all parties claiming that they are doing very well? I can understand that motivating your supporters to come out and vote is obviously important but, over here at least, things have been getting absurd over the past few days.
The worst part is that the media is running with it all as if it somehow makes up for the lack of any decent election reporting; but I don't see how "Plaid say they are surging, LibDems think this claim is both absurd and amusing" is even newsworthy.
In general the media (including all those sh*tty, self-important blogs) has completely failed to do it's job this election. Sad as I am, I would like to know what's going on in different areas; and right now it's very hard to do that because the media seems to have no interest in reporting on the actual election. All they seem to be interested in is press releases.

Bah... humbug...

[afleitch]

Feel like a little rant:

Just wondering but... am I the only one who's getting increasingly sick of all parties claiming that they are doing very well? I can understand that motivating your supporters to come out and vote is obviously important but, over here at least, things have been getting absurd over the past few days.
The worst part is that the media is running with it all as if it somehow makes up for the lack of any decent election reporting; but I don't see how "Plaid say they are surging, LibDems think this claim is both absurd and amusing" is even newsworthy.
In general the media (including all those sh*tty, self-important blogs) has completely failed to do it's job this election. Sad as I am, I would like to know what's going on in different areas; and right now it's very hard to do that because the media seems to have no interest in reporting on the actual election. All they seem to be interested in is press releases.

Bah... humbug...

A candidate should never trust his own vibes Am I doing well? Yes. Better than at the start? Yes. Am I at my best when talking with people in the 'roughest' estates and being invited in for the umpteenth cup of tea of the day or playing 'kickabout' in the playing fields despite looking like an ass ? Yes. Will I win?

No.

It's as simple as that. These things can be enjoying and you can get a real buzz, personally I've had a ball, but you have to rein yourself in. And certainly don't go bleating to the press.