Scotland/Wales 2007

[Harry Hayfield]

Regionals: Lab 2

Alun Davies and Ken Skates? Or Alun Davies and Joyce Watson? (I've never been any good at this sort of thing so...)

The two Lab regional wins are both in Mid and West Wales and that would be:

Alun Davies and Joyce Watson

[Harry Hayfield]

Scotland forecast (based on average of polls so far and adjusted for 2003 error)

Constituencies: Lab 28 SNP 28 Lib Dem 14 Con 3
Regionals: Con 18 SNP 11 Lab 10 Greens 8 Lib Dem 6 SSCUP 1 Solidarity 1 Others 1
Totals: SNP 39 Lab 38 Con 21 Lib Dem 20 Green 8 SSCUP 1 Solidarity 1 Others 1 (Others elected in Scotland Mid and Fife Region)

[minionofmidas]

How do you think a right of centre nationalist (pro-independence) party would do in Wales?

So long as they didn't make a big issue out of independence (even Plaid don't do that)

Plaid are not in favor of independence at all. Never (officially) have been.

What exactly does Plaid stand for, then!?

Self-government but not actual, complete independence IIRC. Not that it matters anyway; independence isn't on the political agenda in Wales, never has been.

On devolution? For the assembly to have the same powers that the Scottish Parliament now has.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A row about some "interesting" remarks the Tory candidate in Clwyd West may or may not have said has just kicked off. Apparently certain things (such as him describing homosexuality as sinful) are beyond doubt but some other things (including context and something about creationism) aren't.

[Harry Hayfield]

A row about some "interesting" remarks the Tory candidate in Clwyd West may or may not have said has just kicked off. Apparently certain things (such as him describing homosexuality as sinful) are beyond doubt but some other things (including context and something about creationism) aren't.

That's right and considering it's in Clwyd West (one of the Conservative's top targets) that's the reason it's getting all the attention. You can read about the incident at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/6599193.stm

And of course in the interests of fairness, there are five candidates standing in Clwyd West, they are:

Simon Croft LD   
Phil Edwards PC   
Darren Millar CON   
Warwick Nicholson UKIP   
Alun Pugh LAB

[Harry Hayfield]

I am hoping that afleitch can shed some light on this http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6603185.stm and explain why the SNP are heckling Tom McCabe (Lab for Hamilton South). They surely don't expect to gain the seat do they (12% swing needed to gain)

[Verily]

I am hoping that afleitch can shed some light on this http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6603185.stm and explain why the SNP are heckling Tom McCabe (Lab for Hamilton South). They surely don't expect to gain the seat do they (12% swing needed to gain)

Some activists need no prompting by the party.

[afleitch]

I am hoping that afleitch can shed some light on this http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6603185.stm and explain why the SNP are heckling Tom McCabe (Lab for Hamilton South). They surely don't expect to gain the seat do they (12% swing needed to gain)

With the SNP solidifying and possibly increasing their lead over Labour these past few days, with a large local swing McCabe is in danger. I expect him to lose Hamilton South more than I would expect Andy Kerr to loose East Kilbride partly due to his own incompetance and also due to former Labour rival McGlynn running against him as an independent.

[afleitch]

Scottish Sunday broadsheets come out, suprisingly, for the SNP.

The Sunday Herald and the Sunday Times have given their backing as has the Scotland on Sunday (sort of) The Sunday Express have also endorsed the SNP

The Adam Smith Institute have also given the SNP a business boost suggesting that under independence and following the SNP plans Scotland could achieve close to a 7% annual growth rate.

[Harry Hayfield]

A new YouGov poll in Scotland carried out for the ESRC between the 17th and 23rd April has voting intentions in the constituency vote of CON 15%, LAB 30%, LDEM 12%, SNP 38%. In the regional vote support stands at CON 14%, LAB 27%, LDEM 12%, SNP 32% (and, presumably, others on a total of 15%).

[afleitch]

Here we have the constituency vote for the polls this past month. The, as PB.com call them, 'McMakeItUp' polls are the smaller dots.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Time for another seat-by-seat prediction. In cases in which I know I might be biased, I've sort of weighed against that... anyway...

Aberavon: Labour
Aberconwy: If the polls are accurate, a Plaid hold. But remember; a few decades ago this would have been one hell of a Tory stronghold...
Alyn & Deeside: Labour
Arfon: Plaid hold, although because of confusing turnout patterns and boundary changes the margin is uncertain. I think Plaid will poll a few thousand more on the list than constituency here though.
Blaenau Gwent: either Law or Labour. Law is certainly acting as though she's in trouble and normally with Indies that's the electoral death knell... but... she's still Peter Law's widow isn't she?
Brecon & Radnorshire: LDem
Bridgend: Labour
Caerphilly: Ron Davies confuses things here a hell of a lot. Despite that a Labour hold is quite likely, but do note that the Cardiff commuters that live in Caerphilly itself tend not to vote Labour in Assembly elections and are more likely to turn out in them than people in the old mining areas.
Cardiff Central: LDem
Cardiff North: Tory gain
Cardiff South & Penarth: Labour
Cardiff West: Labour
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr: Plaid
Carmarthen West & South Pembroke: if the polls are accurate, either Labour or Plaid. Not sure which.
Ceredigion: Plaid
Clwyd South: Labour
Clwyd West: Tory gain (recent events may have changed things there, but I don't see Millar's remarks hurting him amongst all the pensioners that form the Tory core here... hey, it might even *help* him...)
Cynon Valley: Labour
Delyn: Labour, although a Tory steal in a low-turnout election like this one wouldn't really be much of a surprise.
Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Plaid... well... Dafydd El anyway
Gower: Labour
Islwyn: a strong Indy complicates things, but Labour hold regardless.
Llanelli: depends if Helen Mary Jones personal vote can overcome the apparent Plaid decline in Llanelli. As close as last time perhaps?
Merthyr Tydfil: Labour. The real race is for second place (there are around 150 Indies standing here for some reason).
Monmouth: Tory... oh and here's a little wtf moment; the outgoing AM here has actually called for a Labour/Tory coalition! (which is more a carefully calculated slap in the face of Bourne than anything else...)
Montgomery: we could be in for a shock here. Too close to call.
Neath: Labour
Newport East: Labour
Newport West: Labour
Ogmore: Labour
Pontypridd: Labour (and don't be surprised if the very left-wing Jane Davidson ends up as First Minister at some point. You have been warned)
Preseli Pembroke: No idea... this one could be extremely tight
Rhondda: Labour
Swansea East: Labour
Swansea West: both Plaid and the LibDems claim that they will pull off an upset (bearing in mind the constituency, I'm not convinced that's the right word to use, but...) here. Which probably means they'll cancel each other out. Labour hold.
Torfaen: see Islwyn
Vale of Clwyd: Labour
Vale of Glamorgan: close, and boundary changes complicate the issue here rather a lot (it's not certain who they help, basically). If the Tories fail to win here, it'll be due to the awful Tory administration that was running the local council until very recently.
Wrexham: I still think Marek will lose. A minority opinion I suspect, but I've my reasons for it...
Ynys Môn: if the leader of Plaid Cymru loses it will be one of the biggest "shocks" (note the " ") for quite a while. I suspect that he'll hold off his Indy challenger, but he might not. He's certainly been spending most of his time up here and has actually come out against several policies of the party that he leads!

As for the Regional stuff... er... don't know 'cos I'm dire at maths. But I think Alun Davies gets in.

As for coalitions (*sigh/yawn*) a Lab/Lib deal still seems like the logical outcome of all this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here we have the constituency vote for the polls this past month. The, as PB.com call them, 'McMakeItUp' polls are the smaller dots.

So, if the polls be accurate, LibDem voters have been swinging SNPwards? If that's the case, could we be in for some shocks in the Highlands?

[afleitch]

So, if the polls be accurate, LibDem voters have been swinging SNPwards? If that's the case, could we be in for some shocks in the Highlands?

Most likely in Gordon of course where Salmond is standing and Tweedale in the south in a four way contest. Shetland is also a technical target seat due to the small numbers of people involved.

Argyll is also one to watch I've been told. Truth be told I have no idea what on earth is going to happen despite being privy to party (and opponent) internals.

[Harry Hayfield]

Here we have the constituency vote for the polls this past month. The, as PB.com call them, 'McMakeItUp' polls are the smaller dots.

Colour guide please?

[afleitch]

The light blue is for the SNP (same colour as the Scottish flag) - I prefer it over yellow. Besides red needs blue in some form to balance it out!

A 'heather' colour is also acceptable I never use green if I can get away from it.

[Harry Hayfield]

That's an interesting chart then. The SNP are clearly trending higher at the expense of the Lib Dems (which makes not only Tweedale interesting but shifts the attention back onto Gordon). Labour are absolutely static (which suggests that they'll be lucky to get more than 30%) and the Conservatives seem to be stuck at about 13%. Now, this is new for me so this could be completely wide of the mark.

Forecast Constituency Vote Share:

Conservatives 13%
Labour 30%
Liberal Democrats 13%
Scottish National Party 38%
Others 6%
SNP lead over Lab of 8%

[afleitch]

For the record, a MORI poll from 29th April 2003

Constituency

LAB 43
SNP 26
CON 12
LIB 9
SSP 6
GRE 1
OTH 3

Regional

LAB 35
SNP 26
LIB 11
CON 10
SSP 9
GRE 6
OTH 3

[Verily]

For the record, a MORI poll from 29th April 2003

Constituency

LAB 43
SNP 26
CON 12
LIB 9
SSP 6
GRE 1
OTH 3

Regional

LAB 35
SNP 26
LIB 11
CON 10
SSP 9
GRE 6
OTH 3

So. They underestimated the Conservatives and Lib Dems and overestimated the SSP, SNP and Labour. They got the Greens right.

The SSP better hope that they aren't being overestimated again; I'm not sure what happens when you receive a negative number of votes!

[Harry Hayfield]

Data from the Press Association

Estimated Declaration Times

Scotland

53 Kilmarnock & Loudoun                       01:00
  57 Midlothian                                 01:30
  68 Shetland                                   01:30
   6 Angus                                      02:00
  12 Clydebank & Milngavie                      02:00
  18 Dumbarton                                  02:00
  58 Moray                                      02:00
  70 Strathkelvin & Bearsden                    02:00
  73 Western Isles                              02:00
   1 Aberdeen Central                           02:30
   2 Aberdeen North                             02:30
   3 Aberdeen South                             02:30
  10 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross        02:30
  49 Greenock & Inverclyde                      02:30
  52 Inverness East, Nairn & Lochaber           02:30
  66 Ross, Skye & Inverness West                02:30
  22 Dunfermline East                           03:00
  23 Dunfermline West                           03:00
  25 East Lothian                               03:00
  27 Edinburgh Central                          03:00
  28 Edinburgh East & Musselburgh               03:00
  29 Edinburgh North & Leith                    03:00
  30 Edinburgh Pentlands                        03:00
  31 Edinburgh South                            03:00
  32 Edinburgh West                             03:00
  35 Fife Central                               03:00
  36 Fife North East                            03:00
  54 Kirkcaldy                                  03:00
  61 Orkney                                     03:00
  62 Paisley North                              03:00
  63 Paisley South                              03:00
  64 Perth                                      03:00
  65 Renfrewshire West                          03:00
  71 Tayside North                              03:00
  67 Roxburgh & Berwickshire                    03:30
  72 Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale            03:30
  16 Cunninghame North                          04:00
  17 Cunninghame South                          04:00
  20 Dundee East                                04:00
  21 Dundee West                                04:00
  26 Eastwood                                   04:00
  38 Glasgow Anniesland                         04:00
  39 Glasgow Baillieston                        04:00
  40 Glasgow Cathcart                           04:00
  41 Glasgow Govan                              04:00
  42 Glasgow Kelvin                             04:00
  43 Glasgow Maryhill                           04:00
  44 Glasgow Pollok                             04:00
  46 Glasgow Shettleston                        04:00
  47 Glasgow Springburn                         04:00
  55 Linlithgow                                 04:00
  56 Livingston                                 04:00
 101 Glasgow                                    04:30
   4 Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine            05:00
   9 Banff & Buchan                             05:00
  13 Clydesdale                                 05:00
  24 East Kilbride                              05:00
  33 Falkirk East                               05:00
  34 Falkirk West                               05:00
  45 Glasgow Rutherglen                         05:00
  48 Gordon                                     05:00
  51 Hamilton South                             05:00
 103 Lothians                                   05:00
 108 Scotland West                              05:00
  60 Ochil                                      05:30
  69 Stirling                                   05:30
  5  Airdrie & Shotts                           06:00
  14 Coatbridge & Chryston                      06:00
  15 Cumbernauld & Kilsyth                      06:00
  50 Hamilton North & Bellshill                 06:00
  59 Motherwell & Wishaw                        06:00
 105 Scotland Mid & Fife                        06:00
 106 Scotland North East                        06:00
   7 Argyll & Bute                              07:00
 104 Scotland Central                           07:00
 102 Highlands & Islands                        07:30
   8 Ayr                                        08:00
  11 Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley             08:00
  19 Dumfries                                   08:00
  37 Galloway & Upper Nithsdale                 08:00
 107 Scotland South                             08:30

Wales

23  Llanelli                                    01:00
 26  Montgomeryshire                             01:00
  8  Caerphilly                                  01:30
 22  Islwyn                                      01:30
  3  Alyn & Deeside                              02:00
  6  Brecon & Radnorshire                        02:00
  7  Bridgend                                    02:00
 19  Delyn                                       02:00
 24  Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney                    02:00
 30  Ogmore                                      02:00
 40  Ynys Mon                                    02:00
  4  Arfon                                       02:30
  5  Blaenau Gwent                               02:30
 20  Dwyfor Meirionnydd                          02:30
 25  Monmouth                                    02:30
  1  Aberavon                                    03:00
  2  Aberconwy                                   03:00
 15  Ceredigion                                  03:00
 17  Clwyd West                                  03:00
 18  Cynon Valley                                03:00
 21  Gower                                       03:00
 27  Neath                                       03:00
 28  Newport East                                03:00
 29  Newport West                                03:00
 31  Pontypridd                                  03:00
 33  Rhondda                                     03:00
 34  Swansea East                                03:00
 35  Swansea West                                03:00
 36  Torfaen                                     03:00
 38  Vale of Glamorgan                           03:00
 39  Wrexham                                     03:00
 16  Clwyd South                                 03:30
 37  Vale of Clwyd                               03:30
  9  Cardiff Central                             04:00
 10  Cardiff North                               04:00
 11  Cardiff South & Penarth                     04:00
 12  Cardiff West                                04:00
 13  Carmarthen East & Dinefwr                   04:00
 14  Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South       04:00
 32  Preseli Pembrokeshire                       04:00
102  South Wales East                            04:00
103  South Wales West                            04:30
104  Wales Mid & West                            04:30
105  Wales North                                 04:30
101  South Wales Central                         05:00

[afleitch]

Thanks Harry!

Well looks like the first seat to declare in Scotland is one of the most marginal; SNP should take it even on a 'poor' night. Midlothian sees a Labour majority of around 24% and 17% in Clydebank and Milngave; if the SNP take Clydebank it should be a good night for them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Funny that some of the weirder contests in Wales come up first

[afleitch]

Funny that some of the weirder contests in Wales come up first

I think the PA figures may be a little off...unless they have changed their minds. The figures I was given by the returning officer at a meeting a fortnight ago for 'South Lanarkshire' seats were

Hamilton South 1am
Glasgow Rutherglen 2am
East Kilbride 3am
Clydesdale 5am

[afleitch]

Tidied up a little ; removed some old county boundaries and smoothed out a few innaccuracies. Still not perfect though!

[Harry Hayfield]

Tidied up a little ; removed some old county boundaries and smoothed out a few innaccuracies. Still not perfect though!

Goodness me, that map is very telling isn't it? In the North look at Delyn (at Westminster moderately safe but in the Assembly a marginal), and what's this in the South? Bridgend, Newport East and that constituency above Cardiff North (all rock solid at Westminster and marginal in the Assembly). Might we expect one or two suprises on Thursday night!