Scotland/Wales 2007

[Harry Hayfield]

Constituency: SNP 36% Lab 31% Lib Dem 14% Con 13% Others 5%
Regional: SNP 35% Lab 29% Lib Dem 14% Con 13% Green 5% Others 5%

Allowing for Average Error 2003:

Constituency: SNP 35% Lab 28% Lib Dem 19% Con 16% Others 2%
Regional: SNP 32% Lab 24% Con 16% Lib Dem 13% Green 6% Others 9%

Forecasts:

Constituencies: Lab 30 SNP 27 Lib Dem 13 Con 3
Regionals: Con 17 SNP 12 Lab 9 Lib Dem 7 Green 7 SSCUP 2 Ind 1 Solidarity 1
Totals: Lab 39 SNP 39 Con 20 Lib Dem 20 Green 7 SSCUP 2 Ind 1 Solidatory 1

[afleitch]

I'm surprised you didn't mention the name of the song, for extra delicious irony - it's "So Macho" by Sinitta, which is of course a legendary eighties gay anthem...

The B-Side was called Cruising

PS - Hope you're feeling better

[afleitch]

Constituency: SNP 36% Lab 31% Lib Dem 14% Con 13% Others 5%
Regional: SNP 35% Lab 29% Lib Dem 14% Con 13% Green 5% Others 5%

Allowing for Average Error 2003:

Constituency: SNP 35% Lab 28% Lib Dem 19% Con 16% Others 2%
Regional: SNP 32% Lab 24% Con 16% Lib Dem 13% Green 6% Others 9%

Forecasts:

Constituencies: Lab 30 SNP 27 Lib Dem 13 Con 3
Regionals: Con 17 SNP 12 Lab 9 Lib Dem 7 Green 7 SSCUP 2 Ind 1 Solidarity 1
Totals: Lab 39 SNP 39 Con 20 Lib Dem 20 Green 7 SSCUP 2 Ind 1 Solidatory 1

I know what you mean about average error - the same sorts of discrepancies between polling and the result crept up in 1999 and to some extent in Westminster elections to.

I don't believe polling in Scotland has improved enough, particularly looking at the method since last time round.

You're final seat projections are probably not far off the mark

[Harry Hayfield]

The next Welsh poll will be published in a week's time on Thursday April 26th on ITV1 Wales' Wales Tonight at 6.00pm and repeated (I hope) on Wales Decides at 11.00pm.

That means so far we have had TWO Welsh polls and SEVEN Scottish polls. (Mmph!)

[afleitch]

[Verily]

Congrats

Is Henry Mitchell any relation to Margaret Mitchell?

[afleitch]

Is Henry Mitchell any relation to Margaret Mitchell?

Husband

[Harry Hayfield]

The first of THREE national polls for Wales:

Constituency: Lab 36% (-4%), Con 23% (+3%), Plaid 20% (-1%), Lib Dems 15% (+1%), Others 6%

Regional: Lab 35% (-2%), Con 24% (+5%), Plaid 20% (n/c), Lib Dem 15% (+2%), Others 6%

Forecast to follow.

Now, I don't want to raise expectations or anything, but a message was left on the answering machine of Mike Smithson who runs politicalbetting.com to "keep an eye on my blog" from someone calling himself "The Mole". Whilst not knowing what this may mean, there is a suggestion that Blair might stand down BEFORE May 3rd and thus lumber Brown with the damage of a bad set of local elections.

It just so happens that BBC Wales asked such a question in it's polling before the elections for Wales started and having adjusted the poll (the only poll!) we've had in Wales by the amounts that report suggested (Lab +7, Plaid +4, Con +1, Lib Dem -2), come up with the following adjusted poll and forecast

Constituency: Lab 40% (n/c) Con 22% (+2%) Plaid 21% (n/c), Lib Dem 13% (-1%) Ind 1% (n/c) UKIP 1% (n/c) Others 2% (+1%)
Constituency Forecasts: Con GAIN Aberconwy, Cardiff North, Clwyd West, Ind GAIN Blaenau Gwent. Con 4 (+3) Lab 26 (-3) Lib Dem 3 (n/c) Plaid 5 (-1) Ind 2 (+1)

Regional: Lab 39% (+2%) Con 23% (+4%) Plaid 21% (+1%) Lib Dem 10% (-3%) UKIP 2% (-1%) Green 2% (-2%) Others 3% (-2%)
Regional Forecasts: Con 9 (-2) Plaid 7 (+1) Lib Dem 3 (n/c) Lab 1 (+1)

Overall Tally: Lab 27 (-2) Con 13 (+1) Plaid 12 (n/c) Lib Dem 6 (n/c) Ind 2 (+1) Lab short by 4 of an overall majority

[Harry Hayfield]

New Scottish Opinion Poll

Polling Organisation: Populus
Newspaper: The Times

Constituency: SNP 34% Lab 30% Lib Dem 18% Con 13% Others 5%
Regional: SNP 34% Lab 27% Lib Dem 18% Con 14% Green 3% Others 4%

Forecasts:

Labour 34 + 11 = 45 (-5)
SNP 25 + 13 = 38 (+13)
Lib Dem 12 + 14 = 26 (+8)
Con 2 + 16 = 18 (+1)
Greens 0 + 1 = 1 (-6)
Ind 0 + 1 = 1 (-2)

Labour + Lib Dem coalition = 45 + 26 = 71 (majority of 12)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An interesting (or not?) development; shortly after Labour's candidate for Ynys Môn said in a TV programme that Labour wasn't going to enter a coalition with any party following the elections, Labour made a point of completely and utterly disowning what he said.
O/c the party has certainly indicated before that a coalition is possible, but this is the first time (I think) that they've actually said so.

[Harry Hayfield]

According to Sky Digital's EPG (Electronic Programme Guide) there was an election broadcast on behalf of the Welsh Christian Party on BBC Two Wales at 11.35pm this evening. 11.35pm came and no PEB? Has the Welsh Christian Party had a ban slapped on it's election broadcast just like the Pro Life Alliance did in 2003 (when it threatened to show images of aborted babies)?

[Joe Republic]

Here's something from the world of the bizarre: link

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[Verily]

Here's something from the world of the bizarre: link

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Personally, I think it's more bizarre that the couple live with his ex-wife.

[Joe Republic]

The entire story is bizarre.

[Harry Hayfield]

Techically speaking this has been posted in the wrong section (which means I think we need a forum for the English and Scottish locals). The results in 2003 was:

Andrew John Furse (Liberal Democrats) 615 Elected
Carol Anne Paradise (Liberal Democrats) 548 Elected
Christopher John Butt (Conservative Party) 537   
Andrew Gordon Borland (Conservative Party) 532   
Eric Lucas (Green Party) 235

I would say dependent on the number of nominations this time, it could be either 1 Con gain from Lib Dem or 2 Con gains from Lib Dem

[Harry Hayfield]

New Scottish Poll: You Gov published today
Constituency: SNP 37% (+13%) Lab 30% (-5%) Lib Dem 15% (-1%) Con 14% (-3%) Others 4% (-4%) SNP lead over Lab of 7% (Swing 9% Lab to SNP)

Regional: SNP 35% (+14%) Lab 28% (-1%) Lib Dem 13% (+1%) Con 13% (-2%) Green 4% (-3%) Others 7% (-9%) SNP lead over Lab of 7% (Swing 7.5% Lab to SNP)

Average so far (adjusted for errors)
Constituency: SNP 35% Lab 27% Lib Dem 20% Con 16% Others 2%
Regional: SNP 32% Lab 24% Con 16% Lib Dem 14% Green 6% Others 9%

Forecast (using calculator online)
Constituency: Con 3 Lab 26 Lib Dem 14 SNP 30
Regionals: Con 19 Lab 10 Lib Dem 6 SNP 16 Greens 5
Totals: Con 22 Lab 36 Lib Dem 20 SNP 46 Greens 5

[Colin]

What is the threshold for the Scottish elections? Is it like in Germany where its 5% or three constituency seats, or is it something different altogether?

[afleitch]

What is the threshold for the Scottish elections? Is it like in Germany where its 5% or three constituency seats, or is it something different altogether?

There are no thresholds..unfortunately. It means wack parties have the chance of gaining a seak like the Christian Party in the Highlands and Islands.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The electoral system used in Scotland and Wales was quite badly designed IMO.

[afleitch]

The electoral system used in Scotland and Wales was quite badly designed IMO.

Blame Labour's strange aversion to STV at the time!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The electoral system used in Scotland and Wales was quite badly designed IMO.

Blame Labour's strange aversion to STV at the time!

I do! The late '90's were the height of party leadership's control-freakery (thinking of certain rigged internal elections in London and Wales here... almost as bad as the stuff Transport House got up to in it's glory days. Note the "almost"...) o/c, which explains the aversion to STV. But not why they didn't go with closed-list PR with Turkish-style thresholds.

[Harry Hayfield]

The bizarre thing is that London DOES have a threshold of 5% on the list. This is why the BNP didn't win a seat in London 2004 (despite polling enough to win one using d'Hondt)

Results and Seats Won
Lib Dems win the first seat
Greens win the second seat
Lib Dems win the third seat
UKIP win the fourth seat
Lib Dems win the fifth seat
Respect win the sixth seat (didn't due to threshold)
BNP win the seventh seat (didn't due to threshold)
Green win the eighth seat
Lib Dems win the ninth seat
UKIP win the tenth seat
Labour win the eleventh seat

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The BBC claims that Labour intends to strike a deal with Plaid after the election; while a formal coalition is apparently unlikely, the BBC "understands" that Labour would be prepared to make major policy concessions in return for support on issues of confidence and on the budget.

[Harry Hayfield]

The BBC claims that Labour intends to strike a deal with Plaid after the election; while a formal coalition is apparently unlikely, the BBC "understands" that Labour would be prepared to make major policy concessions in return for support on issues of confidence and on the budget.

Reponses so far:

Labour: Deny it
Plaid: Don't confirm it and don't deny it
Con: Labour seeking to retain power at all costs
Lib Dems: Labour not showing any respect to the Welsh Electorate

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour: Deny it

Sort of; Morgan has denied being involved in any such negotiations. And Hain has said that Labour members "wouldn't wear a coalition with Plaid". There is a noticable gap there.

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Yes; all they've denied is the possibility of supporting the Welsh Assembly Government on an informal basis.

There's something going on, but it's not clear what...