Why was Oregon so close?

[AGA]

It wasn't close when Clinton was running and even Dukakis won it.

[TML]

Nader pulled many would-be Gore voters. Most of these people came home to Kerry in 2004.

Dukakis' margin was only marginally better than Kerry's, and Clinton was helped by his own popularity.

[Redban]

Oregon wasn’t / isn’t as far left as people think. It was legit swing state in the Bush 43 elections. Clinton got higher margins because he was really popular, and there was Perot.

Obama in 2008 pulled away in that big 2008 year, and he maintained his coalition in 2012. Hillary saw the vote totals go back to normal for the Dems, but it seems Trump wasn’t a good fit for the state (got less votes than Romney did here).

If the Republicans could ever pull off a solid 4-5%  nationwide win (which they haven’t done since 1988), then Oregon is a state that will surely go for them. This state isn’t like Massachusetts, New York, or Washington D.C.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Oregon wasn’t / isn’t as far left as people think. It was legit swing state in the Bush 43 elections. Clinton got higher margins because he was really popular, and there was Perot.

Obama in 2008 pulled away in that big 2008 year, and he maintained his coalition in 2012. Hillary saw the vote totals go back to normal for the Dems, but it seems Trump wasn’t a good fit for the state (got less votes than Romney did here).

If the Republicans could ever pull off a solid 4-5%  nationwide win (which they haven’t done since 1988), then Oregon is a state that will surely go for them. This state isn’t like Massachusetts, New York, or Washington D.C.

Republicans need at least a 7-8 point win nationally to win Oregon and even then it would basically be to them what Indiana was to Obama in 2008

[538Electoral]

Nader voters.

[Redban]

Oregon wasn’t / isn’t as far left as people think. It was legit swing state in the Bush 43 elections. Clinton got higher margins because he was really popular, and there was Perot.

Obama in 2008 pulled away in that big 2008 year, and he maintained his coalition in 2012. Hillary saw the vote totals go back to normal for the Dems, but it seems Trump wasn’t a good fit for the state (got less votes than Romney did here).

If the Republicans could ever pull off a solid 4-5%  nationwide win (which they haven’t done since 1988), then Oregon is a state that will surely go for them. This state isn’t like Massachusetts, New York, or Washington D.C.

Republicans need at least a 7-8 point win nationally to win Oregon and even then it would basically be to them what Indiana was to Obama in 2008

Nah, it’s not that far Democrat. The Republicans finish respectably in the governor and senator races here. Oregon to the Republicans is like Georgia to the Democrats.

The Indiana comparison would be more apt for New Jersey. Republicans would need a 2008-like win to get NJ barely.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Oregon wasn’t / isn’t as far left as people think. It was legit swing state in the Bush 43 elections. Clinton got higher margins because he was really popular, and there was Perot.

Obama in 2008 pulled away in that big 2008 year, and he maintained his coalition in 2012. Hillary saw the vote totals go back to normal for the Dems, but it seems Trump wasn’t a good fit for the state (got less votes than Romney did here).

If the Republicans could ever pull off a solid 4-5%  nationwide win (which they haven’t done since 1988), then Oregon is a state that will surely go for them. This state isn’t like Massachusetts, New York, or Washington D.C.

Republicans need at least a 7-8 point win nationally to win Oregon and even then it would basically be to them what Indiana was to Obama in 2008

Nah, it’s not that far Democrat. The Republicans finish respectably in the governor and senator races here. Oregon to the Republicans is like Georgia to the Democrats.

The Indiana comparison would be more apt for New Jersey. Republicans would need a 2008-like win to get NJ barely.

I don’t think they would win NJ with even that I think they would need a 1980 style win for that . Anyway Oregon has consistently been around 7-8 points more dem since 2004 with the exception of 2008.


I think Kasich very much could have won OR in 2016 as I think he could have won a 53-46 win nationally against Hillary and Stein would do much better as well.

[Dr. MB]

Oregon wasn’t / isn’t as far left as people think. It was legit swing state in the Bush 43 elections. Clinton got higher margins because he was really popular, and there was Perot.

Obama in 2008 pulled away in that big 2008 year, and he maintained his coalition in 2012. Hillary saw the vote totals go back to normal for the Dems, but it seems Trump wasn’t a good fit for the state (got less votes than Romney did here).

If the Republicans could ever pull off a solid 4-5%  nationwide win (which they haven’t done since 1988), then Oregon is a state that will surely go for them. This state isn’t like Massachusetts, New York, or Washington D.C.

Republicans need at least a 7-8 point win nationally to win Oregon and even then it would basically be to them what Indiana was to Obama in 2008

Nah, it’s not that far Democrat. The Republicans finish respectably in the governor and senator races here. Oregon to the Republicans is like Georgia to the Democrats.

The Indiana comparison would be more apt for New Jersey. Republicans would need a 2008-like win to get NJ barely.

Oregon is still a solidly Democratic state even though it only usually votes Dem by 10 or so points. There's only been a single Republican elected to any statewide office since 2002 and that was against a Democrat who ran a terrible campaign. Even still, he only won by a few points. And we're not showing any signs of trending toward the opposite direction.

[Gracile]

Aside from the Nader effect cutting into support in liberal enclaves like Eugene and Corvallis, the Portland metro was much more R-leaning in the early 2000s. Republicans had yet to hit their floor in Multnomah County and Republicans were still competitive in the densely populated suburban areas in Clackamas and Washington counties.

[morgankingsley]

I know this sounds silly and probably stupid, but I think that maybe part of it was the Reagan and Bush nostalgia that had not fully gone away from some younger-middle age voters, there not being a giant surge of young voters, the rise of Obama liberalism not coming in yet, now that Perot wasn't running, many of those people had to make a pick and a overwhelming majority picked Bush, and the fact that Gore was honestly kind of a boring campaigner in most peoples eyes that all contribute to the less than one percent victory, then you have to remember it was one of Naders best states, and Nader definitely took more from Gore than Bush.

[Nova Green Locked Out]

One of the key factors that I don't believe has yet been mentioned is the collapse of Democratic support within many parts of downstate Oregon as a result of the Timber Wars, and the dramatic dislocation this caused for many parts of my State....

Suburban Voters in Metro PDX weren't nearly as "Liberal" as many folks made them out to be, especially when the Reagan Youth Tech workers from the late '80s were getting their early '00s bailouts....

[Jim Crow]

Alot of progressives voted for Ralph Nader there.  Oregon was center-right in both 1996 and 2000.  In 1996 it may have been the case that progressives voted for Ross Perot.  Even in 2004 while moving noticeably to the left, it remained fairly close.  Ever since then it's been a light blue state.  Is it possible this has been the case ever since 1980 with a couple exceptions where progressives voted 3rd party?