GA (Battleground Connect) - Trump +2

[here2view]

That's actually what I expect Georgia's end result to be, a Trump 2 point win.

Georgia will vote Democratic in 2024.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Biden will win Georgia.

[President Johnson]

Pretty strong for Uncle Joe, but I'm not sure how serious he should contest the state. I think Arizona, Florida and North Carolina should be top targets for the Sun Belt.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Digging into the crosstabs, the news gets even worse for Trump...

                 Republican Democratic Independent
Donald Trump   96%          5%             39%
Joe Biden          3%             89%           48%
Undecided         1%             6%             13%

... As you can see, Trump already had 96% of republican support. No room to grow there essentially. Meanwhile, 6% of Democrats are undecided. If we give them to Biden, he is already at 48% (AKA almost what Abrams got).

One thing that Trump had against Hillary in 2016 that he's likely not going to have against Biden is the support of independents. This is why I am little more optimistic about Joe's polling leads over Trump. 

[Rookie Yinzer]

Pretty strong for Uncle Joe, but I'm not sure how serious he should contest the state. I think Arizona, Florida and North Carolina should be top targets for the Sun Belt.

Why would you not contest a state where you’re in the margin of error in a Republican internal and there are two Senate races on the ballot?

I’m very confused.

[President Johnson]

Pretty strong for Uncle Joe, but I'm not sure how serious he should contest the state. I think Arizona, Florida and North Carolina should be top targets for the Sun Belt.

Why would you not contest a state where you’re in the margin of error in a Republican internal and there are two Senate races on the ballot?

I’m very confused.

I'm just not sure the state is yet ready to flip. The same in Texas, which is winnable according to polls (and similar 2018 results compared to Georgia). It would be great to take Georgia, but it's not a must-win for Joe Biden. I think Arizona, Florida and North Carolina are a little more winnable for him and should be heavily contested to build an insurance in case Wisconsin goes another way.

[DrScholl]

Georgia will flip. Metro Atlanta is on it's way to being like Northern Virginia and will make up an even larger portion of the statewide electorate.

[Catalyst138]

Yeah, but clearly Georgia is Likely R, less likely to flip than IA or ME-02 because of “elasticity” or something like that. Obviously even a miracle wouldn’t get Biden clear of that stubborn 44% 45% 46% 48.8% unbreakable ceiling. Tungsten Lean R.

If Biden loses GA, he’s already won IA by a landslide.

IA will obviously vote left of TITANIUM TILT R FLORIDA /s

[Podgy the Bear]

Georgia will flip. Metro Atlanta is on it's way to being like Northern Virginia and will make up an even larger portion of the statewide electorate.

It's not moving as fast to the Democrats as Northern Virginia has.

There are substantial numbers of conservatives moving to the suburban/exurban areas as well.  And the gerrymandering implemented by the Republicans in the last two decades will take quite a while to unwind.

Still, the future is bright for the Democrats in Georgia.  I think 2020 continues to be a little early for the flip, but it's worth a significant play.  Two Senate seats, winning GA-07, holding GA-06 (Lucy McBath), and picking up several state legislature seats are on the line. 

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Biden will win Georgia.

Georgia is ready to party like it's 1992. Biden is going to win GA.

[Gracile]

Pretty strong for Uncle Joe, but I'm not sure how serious he should contest the state. I think Arizona, Florida and North Carolina should be top targets for the Sun Belt.

Why would you not contest a state where you’re in the margin of error in a Republican internal and there are two Senate races on the ballot?

I’m very confused.

I'm just not sure the state is yet ready to flip. The same in Texas, which is winnable according to polls (and similar 2018 results compared to Georgia). It would be great to take Georgia, but it's not a must-win for Joe Biden. I think Arizona, Florida and North Carolina are a little more winnable for him and should be heavily contested to build an insurance in case Wisconsin goes another way.

I would say GA is more likely to flip than NC at this point.

[DrScholl]

Georgia will flip. Metro Atlanta is on it's way to being like Northern Virginia and will make up an even larger portion of the statewide electorate.

It's not moving as fast to the Democrats as Northern Virginia has.

There are substantial numbers of conservatives moving to the suburban/exurban areas as well.  And the gerrymandering implemented by the Republicans in the last two decades will take quite a while to unwind.

Still, the future is bright for the Democrats in Georgia.  I think 2020 continues to be a little early for the flip, but it's worth a significant play.  Two Senate seats, winning GA-07, holding GA-06 (Lucy McBath), and picking up several state legislature seats are on the line. 

Two large counties flipped in 2016 and trended even further Democratic in the 2018 gubernatorial race, as well as downballot. If a Republican internal can only manage a 2% lead for Trump then Republicans are in serious trouble statewide.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would love for the Peach State to deliver this November in spite of my still lingering pessimism about statewide Democratic chances in it.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Trump will win RI but lose TX and GA. #TRENDSMATTER

[forgotten manatee]

Do GOP pollsters ever leak disinformation polls -- i.e., fudged ones? Could be "fool's gold" dropped to lure the Biden campaign into contesting the state instead of focused on ones he needs to get 270.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Do GOP pollsters ever leak disinformation polls -- i.e., fudged ones? Could be "fool's gold" dropped to lure the Biden campaign into contesting the state instead of focused on ones he needs to get 270.

This might be a bit of a stretch but at the same time I wouldn't put Machiavellan, villainous plans past the GOP.