Black Politician losing the black vote to a non-Black challenger (DEM Primary)

[CookieDamage]

Hi everyone,

I was wondering this morning about a possible future scenario where an African American Democrat running in the presidential primaries either lost the Black vote or kept it close, then I was wondering a scenario where they lost it to a non-Black challenger.

The only example I can think of is Barack vs Hillary, but I believe he won the black vote by a fair bit, although not to the extent that Hillary got vs. Bernie or Joe is getting now.

So I got to thinking what it would take for black voters in any electorate to choose a non-Black candidate over a viable Black candidate in the Democratic primary. First I was thinking, especially in the south, older Black voters may choose a more moderate candidate over a Black progressive (or maybe a democratic socialist), especially one with ties to the community. But even in this scenario I'd feel like a Black progressive would keep it close. Or perhaps, black voters outside the south might choose a more liberal Democrat versus a conservative Black southerner who they disagreed with on the issues. However, even in this case, if this conservative Black southerner won southern Black voters by a landslide and other black moderates by a lot, they would win the black vote.

I'm trying to imagine a scenario but it's tricky to say the least. One scenario I've been thinking of is a northern black progressive, maybe Ayanna Pressley, runs against a moderate who's been around for a while, such as Joe Biden or Hillary in an alternate universe.

[Alben Barkley]

You know this literally happened this year right? Black voters preferred Biden to Harris and Booker the whole time. That's one of the main reasons they dropped out. They couldn't make any inroads with them.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You know this literally happened this year right? Black voters preferred Biden to Harris and Booker the whole time. That's one of the main reasons they dropped out. They couldn't make any inroads with them.

The wording of the title implies the black politician is the incumbent.
That being said your observation is all-round correct.

[Alben Barkley]

You know this literally happened this year right? Black voters preferred Biden to Harris and Booker the whole time. That's one of the main reasons they dropped out. They couldn't make any inroads with them.

The wording of the title implies the black politician is the incumbent.
That being said your observation is all-round correct.

But he talks about stuff like Obama vs. Hillary or Pressley vs. Biden/Hillary in which neither would be an incumbent.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You know this literally happened this year right? Black voters preferred Biden to Harris and Booker the whole time. That's one of the main reasons they dropped out. They couldn't make any inroads with them.

The wording of the title implies the black politician is the incumbent.
That being said your observation is all-round correct.

But he talks about stuff like Obama vs. Hillary or Pressley vs. Biden/Hillary in which neither would be an incumbent.

Yeah I'm getting mixed messages.
Like the word 'challenger' implies that this is against an incumbent, but everything else points to different conclusions.

[bagelman]

You know this literally happened this year right? Black voters preferred Biden to Harris and Booker the whole time. That's one of the main reasons they dropped out. They couldn't make any inroads with them.

Harris and Booker didn't stay in long enough to prove this. Neither were ever able to become major competitors either.

Put Harris or Booker in the position of Sanders, in terms of momentum going into SC (say Harris clearly wins NV), and either could challenge Biden. Against Harris, Biden would rely on older white voters to propel him over the top, even if he remains competitive with blacks.