2016 GE (Trump) vote vs. 2020 Trump primary vote - a comparison thread.

[Tender Branson]

Here's a chart I made, showing the total 2016 general election vote, the 2016 Trump general election vote, the 2020 Trump primary votes and how this 2020 vote compares with the total 2016 vote and 2016 Trump vote:



Conclusions:

* Trump might not be in such a bad shape as we think
* Trump's base is highly motivated to vote
* What about surplus voters (Independents, etc.) ?

Montana is especially interesting:

MT had the highest turnout in a primary this year, with 55% of all registered voters already voting in the primary (2016: 72% turnout in the general election).

Which means their 2020 primary is most reflective of a general election.

Trump got 200.000 votes and therefore already 40% of the total 2016 GE vote, or more than 70% of his 2016 votes.

Republicans beat Democrats by 58-41 in that primary in MT (2016: 55-35 Trump/Hillary).

Trump's base votes are larger in states that have higher turnout or which have all-mail voting.

What it doesn't tell us is how Independents will vote, or if his good showing in MT is only specific to MT and not for other states ...

[Tender Branson]

What this also shows is that, if the turnout increase in MT is linear over the next few months and surplus voters behave and vote similarly to primary voters, Trump will almost definitely not lose MT in the general election ...

If he got 40% of the total 2016 general election vote with a 55% turnout in a primary, then with 75% turnout in November he's supposed to get 54.5% or more.

Give or take a little.

[Ferguson97]

What are the Dem’s 2016–>2020 numbers?

[Tender Branson]

What are the Dem’s 2016–>2020 numbers?

What set of data should I use ?

Combined Dem. vote ? Biden only ? Combined Dem. vote plus anything on the GOP side that didn’t vote for Trump ?

[AtorBoltox]

Why did people bother voting in an essentially uncontested primary?

[Tender Branson]

Why did people bother voting in an essentially uncontested primary?

Base support for the President + there were other races on the ballot too (Senate, House, Governor, statewide primaries).

[Ferguson97]

What are the Dem’s 2016–>2020 numbers?

What set of data should I use ?

Combined Dem. vote ? Biden only ? Combined Dem. vote plus anything on the GOP side that didn’t vote for Trump ?

2016 primary (Hillary+Bernie) vs 2020 primary (everyone combined) vs 2016 general (Hillary)

[Buzz]

Waited in line for over 2 hours the other day to vote for him in an uncontested primary.  I wouldn’t have done that for nearly anyone else.