Gravis: Biden +41 in FL, +38 in IL (user search)
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  Gravis: Biden +41 in FL, +38 in IL (search mode)
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Author Topic: Gravis: Biden +41 in FL, +38 in IL  (Read 1413 times)
Gracile
gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« on: March 14, 2020, 02:14:42 PM »
« edited: March 14, 2020, 02:26:45 PM by Councilor Gracile »

Biden's strength in FL should be a cause for concern for Republicans, at least the sane ones who don’t think the state is Safe R. If Biden flips FL, he flips AZ as well, and that’s game, set, match.

Trump still leads Biden in GE polling here

To my knowledge, there have been four FL GE polls this year. Biden led Trump in two of those, Trump led Biden in the other two. In the three public polls which weren’t sponsored by the Chamber of Commerce, neither candidate's lead ever exceeded two percentage points. In fact, five of the six last FL polls have shown the exact same thing (a race decided by 2% or less).

I’ll be bold and call FL a pure Tossup.

Hillary Clinton, Bill Nelson, and Andrew Gillum (who lead every poll that wasn't a GOP internal) frequently lead polls against their opponents and look how that turned out. Early polls of a state with Florida's electoral peculiarities are hardly a sign of general election "strength".

None of this is to say that Biden can't win, but citing Florida polls (which have had a tendency to be D-leaning and are not actually showing a sizable lead for Biden) doesn't really make a persuasive case for Biden's advantage in Florida.
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