Biden's strength in FL should be a cause for concern for Republicans, at least the sane ones who don’t think the state is Safe R. If Biden flips FL, he flips AZ as well, and that’s game, set, match.
Trump still leads Biden in GE polling here
To my knowledge, there have been four FL GE polls this year. Biden led Trump in two of those, Trump led Biden in the other two. In the three public polls which weren’t sponsored by the Chamber of Commerce, neither candidate's lead ever exceeded two percentage points. In fact, five of the six last FL polls have shown the exact same thing (a race decided by 2% or less).
I’ll be bold and call FL a pure Tossup.
Hillary Clinton, Bill Nelson, and Andrew Gillum (who lead every poll that wasn't a GOP internal) frequently lead polls against their opponents and look how that turned out. Early polls of a state with Florida's electoral peculiarities are hardly a sign of general election "strength".
None of this is to say that Biden can't win, but citing Florida polls (which have had a tendency to be D-leaning and are not actually showing a sizable lead for Biden) doesn't really make a persuasive case for Biden's advantage in Florida.
This wasn’t the point I addressed in my reply; the post I replied to pretty clearly said "Trump still leads Biden in GE polling here" (here = Florida). Now that we’ve established that the polling we have access to is more of a mixed bag, we’re moving the goalposts from "Trump leads in FL polls" to "FL polls don’t really matter."
When a state is as close and divided as FL and every major statewide race is decided by 1% or less, both candidates will have polls showing them ahead at some point. It’s true that Gillum led in nearly every poll, but many of them only by 1-2 percentage points, so still within the margin of error (although I agree that some outliers like Quinnipiac were really inexcusable).
I get that Nelson's and Gillum's losses have left a mark on people, but it’s foolish to extrapolate
that much from one election and to assume that a particular polling "bias" will continue indefinitely, especially in a state like FL. Romney was ahead in FL in pretty much all the polling averages in 2012, and the "Titanium Tilt R FL" predictions didn’t exactly age well that year.
