Gravis: Biden +41 in FL, +38 in IL

[Tender Branson]

FL:

66% Biden
25% Sanders

IL:

63% Biden
25% Sanders

Gravis Marketing asked Bernie Sanders voters who they plan to support in the general election:

In Florida, 68% of Sanders voters indicated that they would vote for Joe Biden, while 19% said they would vote for Donald Trump. 7% would vote for a third party, 3% are uncertain and 2% would stay home.

In Illinois, 76% of Sanders voters would vote for Joe Biden, 10% would vote for Donald Trump, 9% would vote for a third party, 4% are uncertain and 1% would stay home.

These polls were conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. The Florida poll of 516 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted March 10th through March 12th and has a margin of error of ±4.3%. The Illinois poll of 549 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted March 10th through March 12th and has a margin of error of ±4.2%. These surveys were conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be direction to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.

Link

[Lisa's voting Biden]

It's Gravis but these results seem reasonable at this point.

[Eraserhead]

It's Gravis but these results seem reasonable at this point.

Not for Illinois.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Florida is going to annihilate Bernie. He’s a f-cking idiot for doubling down on his Castro comments. But the Bernie Brigade swore he was so politically savvy and was going to usher in this new era. LMFAO.

[ProudModerate2]

Ouch.

[President Johnson]

KING JOSEPH

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

early voted already

[KaiserDave]

Presumptive Nominee Biden

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Biden's strength in FL should be a cause for concern for Republicans, at least the sane ones who don’t think the state is Safe R. If Biden flips FL, he flips AZ as well, and that’s game, set, match.

Trump still leads Biden in GE polling here

[MT Treasurer]

Biden's strength in FL should be a cause for concern for Republicans, at least the sane ones who don’t think the state is Safe R. If Biden flips FL, he flips AZ as well, and that’s game, set, match.

Trump still leads Biden in GE polling here

To my knowledge, there have been four FL GE polls this year. Biden led Trump in two of those, Trump led Biden in the other two. In the three public polls which weren’t sponsored by the Chamber of Commerce, neither candidate's lead ever exceeded two percentage points. In fact, five of the six last FL polls have shown the exact same thing (a race decided by 2% or less).

I’ll be bold and call FL a pure Tossup.

[Gracile]

Biden's strength in FL should be a cause for concern for Republicans, at least the sane ones who don’t think the state is Safe R. If Biden flips FL, he flips AZ as well, and that’s game, set, match.

Trump still leads Biden in GE polling here

To my knowledge, there have been four FL GE polls this year. Biden led Trump in two of those, Trump led Biden in the other two. In the three public polls which weren’t sponsored by the Chamber of Commerce, neither candidate's lead ever exceeded two percentage points. In fact, five of the six last FL polls have shown the exact same thing (a race decided by 2% or less).

I’ll be bold and call FL a pure Tossup.

Hillary Clinton, Bill Nelson, and Andrew Gillum (who lead every poll that wasn't a GOP internal) frequently lead polls against their opponents and look how that turned out. Early polls of a state with Florida's electoral peculiarities are hardly a sign of general election "strength".

None of this is to say that Biden can't win, but citing Florida polls (which have had a tendency to be D-leaning and are not actually showing a sizable lead for Biden) doesn't really make a persuasive case for Biden's advantage in Florida.

[KaiserDave]

Trump will win Florida  by .001% duh

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since the CBS news story broke, and Bernie suggested lifting of Cuban embargo,  then Dems chances in FL took a hit, due to FL wants the embargo to continue

[pbrower2a]

We see few Illinois polls, so we might as well accept this one at face value.

[MT Treasurer]

Biden's strength in FL should be a cause for concern for Republicans, at least the sane ones who don’t think the state is Safe R. If Biden flips FL, he flips AZ as well, and that’s game, set, match.

Trump still leads Biden in GE polling here

To my knowledge, there have been four FL GE polls this year. Biden led Trump in two of those, Trump led Biden in the other two. In the three public polls which weren’t sponsored by the Chamber of Commerce, neither candidate's lead ever exceeded two percentage points. In fact, five of the six last FL polls have shown the exact same thing (a race decided by 2% or less).

I’ll be bold and call FL a pure Tossup.

Hillary Clinton, Bill Nelson, and Andrew Gillum (who lead every poll that wasn't a GOP internal) frequently lead polls against their opponents and look how that turned out. Early polls of a state with Florida's electoral peculiarities are hardly a sign of general election "strength".

None of this is to say that Biden can't win, but citing Florida polls (which have had a tendency to be D-leaning and are not actually showing a sizable lead for Biden) doesn't really make a persuasive case for Biden's advantage in Florida.

This wasn’t the point I addressed in my reply; the post I replied to pretty clearly said "Trump still leads Biden in GE polling here" (here = Florida). Now that we’ve established that the polling we have access to is more of a mixed bag, we’re moving the goalposts from "Trump leads in FL polls" to "FL polls don’t really matter."

When a state is as close and divided as FL and every major statewide race is decided by 1% or less, both candidates will have polls showing them ahead at some point. It’s true that Gillum led in nearly every poll, but many of them only by 1-2 percentage points, so still within the margin of error (although I agree that some outliers like Quinnipiac were really inexcusable).

I get that Nelson's and Gillum's losses have left a mark on people, but it’s foolish to extrapolate that much from one election and to assume that a particular polling "bias" will continue indefinitely, especially in a state like FL. Romney was ahead in FL in pretty much all the polling averages in 2012, and the "Titanium Tilt R FL" predictions didn’t exactly age well that year.