Kansas (PPP): Trump +12
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Author Topic: Kansas (PPP): Trump +12  (Read 1950 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: March 12, 2020, 06:54:52 AM »
« edited: March 12, 2020, 09:50:32 AM by wbrocks67 »
Both Biden and Sanders get 40% against Trump's 52%

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/biden-has-substantial-leads-in-key-sanders-2016-states/
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Skye
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« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2020, 07:06:17 AM »

Trump gets 40% in Kansas? I'm sure IndyRep will be elated to know Tongue
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2020, 07:07:01 AM »
Damn, no Senate poll? This might be a close enough margin at the Presidential race for Bollier to get enough crossover votes against Kobach
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #3 on: March 12, 2020, 07:07:16 AM »
Trump wins by 19-20.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: March 12, 2020, 07:08:16 AM »
MT is becoming the tipping pt Senate race over NC, and KS
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #5 on: March 12, 2020, 07:17:57 AM »
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on March 12, 2020, 07:07:01 AM
Damn, no Senate poll? This might be a close enough margin at the Presidential race for Bollier to get enough crossover votes against Kobach

It's hard for me to see that many Trump voters abandoning Kobach. If Trump wins Kansas by 12, Kobach probably wins by high single digits.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #6 on: March 12, 2020, 07:19:41 AM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on March 12, 2020, 07:17:57 AM
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on March 12, 2020, 07:07:01 AM
Damn, no Senate poll? This might be a close enough margin at the Presidential race for Bollier to get enough crossover votes against Kobach

It's hard for me to see that many Trump voters abandoning Kobach. If Trump wins Kansas by 12, Kobach probably wins by high single digits.

Yeah, that's why Dems recruited Bullock,  he is now the magic 50th seat to ensure a majority,  due to NC and KS not being a safe bet
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #7 on: March 12, 2020, 10:11:12 AM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on March 12, 2020, 07:17:57 AM
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on March 12, 2020, 07:07:01 AM
Damn, no Senate poll? This might be a close enough margin at the Presidential race for Bollier to get enough crossover votes against Kobach

It's hard for me to see that many Trump voters abandoning Kobach. If Trump wins Kansas by 12, Kobach probably wins by high single digits.

Kobach is perfectly capable of underperforming Trump that much. He did 10% worse than the baseline for Kansas Republicans in 2018, and probably would’ve lost by even more without a liberal Indy on the ballot as well.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: March 12, 2020, 11:02:00 AM »
So Iowa and Kansas are only two points apart?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: March 12, 2020, 11:03:20 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on March 12, 2020, 11:02:00 AM
So Iowa and Kansas are only two points apart?

#trendsarereal
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2020, 01:46:59 AM »

They most certainly are.

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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2020, 01:48:10 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on March 12, 2020, 11:02:00 AM
So Iowa and Kansas are only two points apart?

not the same polling company
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Pollster
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« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2020, 11:48:08 AM »
Biden probably needs to land in the low to mid-40's to bring Bollier across the finish line against Kobach. If he can consolidate the 44% disapproval of Trump into his own base, there's a good chance of that happening.
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Pollster
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« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2020, 11:52:18 AM »
Also, the crosstabs here suggest that Biden is doing very well among voters who have an unfavorable opinion of both him and Trump (the most important group of voters in this election).
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2020, 12:58:23 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on March 12, 2020, 11:02:00 AM
So Iowa and Kansas are only two points apart?

Yes, as are Wisconsin and Texas, and none of this is actually particularly surprising to people who have been paying attention.

But yeah, too bad they didn’t poll Bollier vs. Kobach.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2020, 04:34:46 PM »
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on March 12, 2020, 10:11:12 AM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on March 12, 2020, 07:17:57 AM
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on March 12, 2020, 07:07:01 AM
Damn, no Senate poll? This might be a close enough margin at the Presidential race for Bollier to get enough crossover votes against Kobach

It's hard for me to see that many Trump voters abandoning Kobach. If Trump wins Kansas by 12, Kobach probably wins by high single digits.

Kobach is perfectly capable of underperforming Trump that much. He did 10% worse than the baseline for Kansas Republicans in 2018, and probably would’ve lost by even more without a liberal Indy on the ballot as well.

This is a Senate race, which is far more polarized than the gubernatorial race was. Plus Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1932.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #16 on: March 14, 2020, 04:14:35 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on March 13, 2020, 04:34:46 PM
This is a Senate race, which is far more polarized than the gubernatorial race was.

True. I mean, when was the last time Democrats even won a Senate race in a Trump +20 state, much less a Trump +42 one? Ah... yeah, 2018.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2020, 09:14:32 PM »
Trump has 259 EC votes and Biden has 227, MI, WI and PA are the deciders
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