2024 Dem Primary: AOC vs. Harris
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  2024 Dem Primary: AOC vs. Harris
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Author Topic: 2024 Dem Primary: AOC vs. Harris  (Read 1480 times)
Horatii
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« on: March 11, 2020, 04:00:58 PM »

What would a primary like this look like?



Harris vs. AOC
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bagelman
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« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2020, 03:30:08 PM »

AOC is too much of a culture warrior to win back the old rurals that Bernie won in '16 and lost this year. Harris corners the black vote, and like EVERY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY, their choice is the winner.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2020, 09:24:32 PM »

AOC is too much of a culture warrior to win back the old rurals that Bernie won in '16 and lost this year. Harris corners the black vote, and like EVERY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY, their choice is the winner.

Not, "EVERY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY". By that logic we would have had John Edwards and Jesse Jackson.

SC notwithstanding (where Edwards only won it over Kerry by 3 points, 37%-34%), John Kerry was the primary candidate who won black voters in 2004, having won 56% of the total African-American vote in the primaries.
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vanteran
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« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2020, 05:51:55 PM »
« Edited: March 14, 2020, 05:57:10 PM by vanteran »

Probably under this scenario Harris is running as the incumbent VP under Biden who, due to his advanced age and having achieved his pledge to bring the U.S. back to "normalcy", forgoes running for a second term. If this is the case, Harris has the clear advantage with her establishment support. AOC will be immediately targeted as being way too young and inexperienced to obtain the presidency at 35 years old (although Buttigieg was only 2 years older when he announced his run; gender perception would play a unfair role) and she would only be a three-term congresswoman by 2024 (again, gender perception would play a unfair role as Beto's main experience was being a 3-term congressman in addition to 6 years on the city council and a failed 2018 Senate bid).

This primary cycle, Sanders is faring way worse against Biden than he did against Clinton when it should be the other way around... you would think more would be attracted to his movement 4 years later, but he seems to be losing a ton of support. I think Sanders only did as well as he did in 2016 MAINLY because there was huge anti-Hillary sentiment and Sanders emerged as the main opposition to her. So I think the notion that the party is moving further left is a flawed argument - ideas that are further to the left are gaining steam, but they're not translating into candidates who champion those ideas getting elected. I think Harris easily wins.
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RI
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« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2020, 06:45:55 PM »

Zero chance that those would be the final two candidates.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #5 on: March 15, 2020, 05:49:30 AM »



Red - Harris
Green - AOC
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538Electoral
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« Reply #6 on: March 15, 2020, 09:22:13 PM »

Harris.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #7 on: April 23, 2020, 10:38:47 PM »

AOC is too much of a culture warrior to win back the old rurals that Bernie won in '16 and lost this year. Harris corners the black vote, and like EVERY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY, their choice is the winner.

You sound very upset about this. Hmm... wonder why.

That said, I don't think Harris would be a much better fit for the "old rurals." She's a "culture warrior" herself who literally made banning Trump from Twitter part of her campaign platform and talked about it in the debates. I don't think the old rurals would care much for either of these candidates. But yeah, they probably would ultimately side with the one who is more moderate and experienced over the one who is almost entirely known for being a gadfly on Twitter and is a member of the DSA. Because like black voters, they are generally a more moderate and pragmatic group.

And being too radical IS why Bernie lost their vote this year, by the way. I need you to understand that. You can't win them "back" because you never had them. They just didn't like Hillary. They never liked Bernie. And they'll take a moderate they do like such as Biden over him every time, as we clearly saw. There is no widespread secret desire for socialist revolution in the heartland of America. There never has been, and there never will be.
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mrappaport1220
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« Reply #8 on: May 09, 2020, 06:51:08 PM »

Between these two, Harris would definitely would win. Although, there would likely be more candidates in the race like Buttigieg and Cuomo
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JoeyOCanada
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« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2020, 03:44:39 AM »

Harris in a landslide. AOC would be seen as far too young and inexperienced.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #10 on: May 12, 2020, 12:44:28 PM »

These will not be the last two standing. It will be Harris and either Pete or Joe Kennedy
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Heir of Camelot
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« Reply #11 on: May 12, 2020, 06:42:24 PM »

I think Pete is kind of done. The shine will be off him by that point. His 15 minutes are up. I could see JK3 though if he wins his primary. He's be 44 at that point. A year older than Jack Kennedy when he was first elected.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #12 on: May 21, 2020, 11:31:17 AM »

I really don't think that only those two would run. Neither would really appeal to rural communities since they're both progressive women of color.

But if they were the only two to run, Harris would absolutely destroy her. All of AOC's popularity is based in Cali and NYC.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #13 on: May 21, 2020, 11:43:15 AM »

Ocasio-Cortez wins Iowa, New Hampshire and if New York's primary is early enough, she gets enough home State support to come away with more delegates there.

Harris wins everywhere else 
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John King wannabe
AshtonShabazz
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« Reply #14 on: May 31, 2020, 12:26:30 AM »

AOC would win like Iowa and like Hawaii and North Dakota and that's it. Harris would win everywhere else. New Hampshire may be a narrow AOC win.
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mrappaport1220
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« Reply #15 on: June 01, 2020, 03:10:16 PM »

If it was just AOC vs. Harris alone, Harris would definitely win and it would not even be close. There would probably be other candidates like Buttigieg and others so it would be closer. If Biden wins in 2020 and Harris is his VP, she will totally be favored to win the nomination.



Harris vs. AOC
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #16 on: July 02, 2020, 09:33:19 PM »

AOC would win like Iowa and like Hawaii and North Dakota and that's it. Harris would win everywhere else. New Hampshire may be a narrow AOC win.

Yeah AOC is way too far-left to win anywhere else.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #17 on: July 05, 2020, 05:56:08 AM »

If it was just AOC vs. Harris alone, Harris would definitely win and it would not even be close. There would probably be other candidates like Buttigieg and others so it would be closer. If Biden wins in 2020 and Harris is his VP, she will totally be favored to win the nomination.



Harris vs. AOC

In what world AOC beats Harris in West Virginia?
Did you really just take the 2016 map and tweaked it in a few places?
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