Which populous county would vote solidly GOP soon?

[iceman]

Most populous counties are trending DEM, but are there any counties now which currently votes DEM that will start to trend GOP soon?

When I talk about populous county, maybe around >200,000 in population.

[iceman]

These are some counties I could think of,:
 
Saginaw county, Michigan
Lorain county, Ohio
Lackawanna county, Pennsylvania
Saint Lucie county, Florida
Adams county, Colorado (not quite, but it seems to be trending GOP)

They may vote modestly GOP in a few more cycles.

[538Electoral]

Suffolk County, New York

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trumball County, Ohio

[iceman]

Trumball County, Ohio

Trumbull County is now less than 200,000 people based on 2019 estimates.

[AGA]

He said solidly GOP. Suffolk county voted D in every election from 1996 to 2012. It does not have a strong GOP trend, it voted for Trump because he was a good fit.

Anyway, a lot of the suburban Texas counties are still solidly GOP (Collings, Denton, Montgomery).

[Bidenworth2020]

He said solidly GOP. Suffolk county voted D in every election from 1996 to 2012. It does not have a strong GOP trend, it voted for Trump because he was a good fit.

Anyway, a lot of the suburban Texas counties are still solidly GOP (Collings, Denton, Montgomery).

He said solidly GOP soon. So the question is looking for counties that vote Democrat but may trend Republican in future.

Suffolk doesn't have a strong GOP trend yet, but the beginnings are there now. Not just Trump's win, but also the performances of the local GOP in NY State Assembly & NY State Senate vote.

Democrats won it in every statewide race as well as in the combined congressional vote in 2018.

[Skill and Chance]

There are a lot of midsize Rust Belt cities to watch for this.  For example, it's pretty easy to imagine a world where St. Louis County, MN is safe R in the 2030's, also Onondaga/Monroe/Erie in NY.

[Tartarus Sauce]

There are a lot of midsize Rust Belt cities to watch for this.  For example, it's pretty easy to imagine a world where St. Louis County, MN is safe R in the 2030's, also Onondaga/Monroe/Erie in NY.

Monroe+Onondaga counties have shifted in the opposite direction from Erie County since the Bush years, especially in Monroe County. Republicans are even losing strength downballot there as well, with the county executive seat flipping to Democrats last year for the first time in almost 30 years and only the second time ever. It is not at all a sure bet that those three will all be voting reliably Republican by next decade.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unfortunately,  Trumbull Cnty, Ohio

[jamestroll]

By the time every county votes exactly the way current trends suggest we will have new trends appearing and a new political realignment.

St. Louis County, MO is highly unlikely to become anything close resembling a swing county let alone a GOP county Skill and Chance.

[Skill and Chance]

By the time every county votes exactly the way current trends suggest we will have new trends appearing and a new political realignment.

St. Louis County, MO is highly unlikely to become anything close resembling a swing county let alone a GOP county Skill and Chance.

MN, not MO.  It's the county with Duluth in it.  Currently about 60D/40R, but MN-08 is moving fast to the right.

[brucejoel99]

Suffolk County, New York