Mini Tuesday results thread

[MillennialModerate]

... is there any reason Washington hasn’t been called for Biden yet ?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

UGH when will Washington be done?

[n1240]

While Washington probably won't finish counting tomorrow, it's likely they'll count enough tomorrow to the point that it'll be mathematically impossible for Sanders to overcome Biden's lead on the outstanding ballots.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

This is outdated now, but still interesting to look at: election night results from King County, WA.

City	Sanders	Biden	Warren	Bloomberg	Buttigieg	Klobuchar
Auburn	32.6	32.9	10.2	13.3	5.7	2.8
Bellevue	28.2	38.5	10.7	11.9	5.2	3.6
Bothell	32.6	32.5	13.5	10.5	5.8	3.4
Burien	36.7	29.7	13.3	9.6	5.2	2.8
Clyde Hill	16.5	47.2	7.7	17.1	6.0	3.8
Covington	32.4	31.2	11.2	11.6	8.2	2.1
Des Moines	29.5	35.5	11.0	12.9	5.0	3.7
Duvall	31.7	32.7	14.1	7.6	8.7	3.7
Enumclaw	25.3	36.2	10.8	12.5	8.6	3.8
Federal Way	31.5	36.5	9.3	13.0	4.5	2.4
Issaquah	27.0	39.9	11.1	10.5	6.2	3.6
Kent	34.9	34.7	9.1	11.0	5.1	2.5
Kirkland	29.3	36.2	12.9	10.3	5.7	3.6
Kenmore	32.5	33.7	14.3	9.1	5.3	3.2
Lake Forest Park	29.9	38.1	15.0	7.2	5.0	3.3
Maple Valley	29.2	35.2	10.9	11.0	7.2	3.5
Medina	12.0	45.9	6.6	24.1	5.7	4.0
Mercer Island	16.9	46.8	9.6	15.6	5.1	4.3
Newcastle	26.1	37.4	10.2	13.0	7.3	3.9
Normandy Park	24.5	38.9	10.5	13.2	7.0	4.5
North Bend	32.5	31.4	11.9	11.4	5.5	4.3
Redmond	36.8	32.7	12.5	8.6	4.5	2.7
Renton	35.5	32.5	11.2	10.9	5.0	2.3
Sammamish	24.3	42.0	10.2	12.2	6.1	3.5
Seattle	37.1	28.6	19.5	6.1	4.7	2.7
SeaTac	38.3	29.6	9.8	12.0	5.0	2.1
Shoreline	35.2	31.2	16.4	7.8	4.4	3.2
Snoqualmie	27.1	37.9	12.8	10.1	7.7	2.6
Tukwila	42.7	27.3	11.2	10.4	4.7	1.5
Woodinville	32.5	34.8	10.7	10.3	7.0	2.8
Yarrow Point	9.5	58.0	8.2	16.0	5.6	2.2

Seattle by LD:

LD	Sanders	Biden	Warren	Bloomberg	Buttigieg	Klobuchar
11th LD	50.1	20.0	19.0	5.1	3.0	1.2
32nd LD	34.0	31.0	17.9	7.6	4.9	3.0
34th LD	33.1	30.9	18.9	6.9	5.4	3.2
36th LD	34.8	29.8	19.8	6.4	4.8	3.1
37th LD	40.6	26.1	20.2	6.0	4.0	1.6
43rd LD	41.0	25.6	19.7	5.2	5.0	2.4
46th LD	33.7	32.4	18.6	6.4	4.2	3.3

The contrast between Bellevue and Redmond is pretty striking... The main demographic differences between these two Eastside suburbs are 1) Bellevue is more socioeconomically diverse than Redmond, and 2) Bellevue Asians are mostly Chinese while Redmond Asians are mostly Indian (they're analogous to Richmond and Surrey in Metro Vancouver BC in this regard).

But other than that the King County burbs' relative support for the Top 4 correlates reasonably well with how white/nonwhite, college-white, wealthy, and exurban they are. Mercer Island, Clyde Hill, and Medina are where the 1% live. Issaquah and Sammamish are further out on the Eastside than Bellevue and Redmond. Federal Way and Auburn are further from Seattle than Kent and Renton, all of which are in downscale South King County. Shoreline and Tukwila are the most inner of the inner suburbs. Etc.




WA state Legislative District 46 (the one that almost broke evenly for Sanders and Biden) contains the parts of Seattle proper that are north and east of the UW campus (including Northgate and where the children's hospital is). It also contains the inner suburbs of Lake Forest Park and Kenmore on the northern tip of Lake Washington, but not Shoreline- which seems to be in LD 32.

[Tender Branson]

There are ca. 80.000 Democratic ballots left to count in WA.

Biden is currently ahead by a 30.000 margin, which means Sanders would win the remaining ballots by a 35-40% margin over Biden ...

In other words: it is mathematically impossible.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1239696879958528000

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

NBC news projects Washington for Biden.

[Torrain]

NYTimes also calling Washington for Biden.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Anyone got CD breakdowns for Washington?

[Xing]

Sanders actually seems to be catching up a bit in later ballots (he took the lead again in Jefferson, and might retake the lead in King), but there’s just not that much left to count. If he keeps catching up, this could end up within 1%, but it probably ends up around the margin it is right now.

[RI]

Sanders actually seems to be catching up a bit in later ballots (he took the lead again in Jefferson, and might retake the lead in King), but there’s just not that much left to count. If he keeps catching up, this could end up within 1%, but it probably ends up around the margin it is right now.

Yeah, Biden's lead on the post-election day vote is down to only 49-44. Biden was up 51-41 on the post-ED count as of 3/12.

[RI]

Here's a map of how WA counties have voted in the post-ED vote:

Image Link

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Here's a map of how WA counties have voted in the post-ED vote:

Image Link

Clark County (Vancouver) was a surprise

[RI]

Here's a map of how WA counties have voted in the post-ED vote:

Image Link

Clark County (Vancouver) was a surprise

Yeah. I'm wondering if there's a very specific type of suburb outside booming cities (similar to Canyon County, ID) where Sanders is doing well even now. I haven't quite figured it out yet, though.

[kireev]