If the EC were abolished, how would the Republicans win? (user search)
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  If the EC were abolished, how would the Republicans win? (search mode)
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Author Topic: If the EC were abolished, how would the Republicans win?  (Read 16914 times)
Nightcore Nationalist
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« on: April 22, 2020, 06:32:35 AM »

Although Trump had a nearly 3 point advantage in the EC in 2016 (and that's likely the case this year), it will swing back when Texas is a toss up and AZ and GA lean D, as mentioned.

Also, Obama had a significant EC advantage in 2008, and a modest one in 2012 and 2004 for Kerry.


Republicans would initially lose 2 or 3 elections if the EC was abolished, but they'd recover by focusing in metropolitan areas and with voters born from 1980-2000 (at least, if they're politically adept).  They would also become more economically moderate.
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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #1 on: April 25, 2020, 06:18:26 PM »

Remember that as recently as 2012, people were saying the EC favored Democrats. This could easily be the case in 10 years when states like AZ and GA become D - leaning, and Texas is a tossup.

Yes, the EC has recently favored Democrats and that will in all likelihood be even more so the case (in a lopsided manner) going forward imo.

What do you envision here?  Are you thinking of something like this becoming normal?



If current trends continue, that's a very plausible 2036/2040 map if you flip MS and probably IL and NJ.
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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2020, 03:24:12 PM »

It would be tough. Going moderate like many advocate on here wouldn’t work as any gain from Kasich supporting crowd will be offset by those further right who just give up on voting outright. Options going forward would be:

1. Republicans will either become junior party that occasionally puts check on left moving too fast, but never controlling all branches of government (like New England politics currently). Win 1 out 5 presidential elections at most and stay legislative minority.

2. The winning strategy is full populist (Fiscal left/social conservative). Fiscal conservatives are dying breed in electorate until the federal government or a large state government goes BK.

The  GOP would abandon fiscal conservatism in its official platform (already have in practice) and run to the left of Democrats on economic policy/safety net (adopt more generous version Yang’s UBI, medicare for all citizens, higher tariffs, higher taxes on the rich, etc.) while maintaining social conservative views. This would win over both white and minority working classes at the expense of losing libertarians and upper middle class professionals who are already trending Democrat. GOP would also have to work closer and drop hostility towards organized labor. This would be winning ticket, but also equal the death of American conservatism.

I broadly agree with this point of view, and it dovetails nicely with many of my own views, but I'm not sure the GOP will be able to afford to simply give up on libertarians and the upper middle class entirely, especially if the Democratic Party continues on a hard-SJW trajectory. I'm also not sure people would accept the GOP simply dumping its entire economic plank entirely overnight.

My personal belief is that the path forward for the GOP is to do several things:

1) Preserve the socially conservative views essential to the party's base: abortion, gun rights, immigration, free speech, and identity politics. Jettison opposition to marijuana and perhaps rethink parts of the drug war.

2) Promote themselves as a humanistic, patriotic alternative to the Dems. Whereas the Dems believe humanity is inherently stained by racism, sexism, harming the planet, etc., the GOP must stand on the power of human ingenuity and compassion to solve problems and bridge divides, regardless of race, sex, etc. If the left stands on the inherent sin of humanity, the right must stand on its virtue.

2a) Co-opt climate change as a real and pressing issue not to be solved by higher taxes, lower birth rates, and social liberalism but by aggressive innovation and science. Similarly, the right must become more willing to embrace science and experts insofar as they deserve to be trusted by their merits; put another way, be skeptical of science from within a scientific framework, not simply reject it out of hand as if by ad hominem.

3) Become highly economically nationalistic and community-centric -- perhaps framed as "economic patriotism" -- which includes support for a UBI (perhaps while also overhauling traditional welfare programs) and other economically-sound policies. Perhaps reframe from "smaller government" to "better government" or "smarter government" or "government for Americans".

4) Actively stand against unchecked corporate power which undermines American values, reduces privacy through surveillance, and harms American consumers and markets through monopolistic tendencies.

At least, this is what I would try to do if I where running for office.

I wholly endorse this direction for the future of the GOP.
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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2020, 07:00:23 AM »
« Edited: July 22, 2020, 07:04:58 AM by AntiCommunistsche Aktion »




Well, that depends on how you interpret "conservatism" honestly.  Recently, I've been increasingly critical of the pre-Trump GOP/GOPe's vision of the party, which does not jive with the state of the country/world today or with current/future voting coalitions.  They are bent on returning to a strict doctrinal version of Tea Party conservatism that began with Newt Gingrich's revolution and peaked in 2014.  These are the ideological leaders of conservatism and the establishment GOP-Dennis Prager, Charlie Kirk/TPUSA, National Review, and Ben Shapiro/DW.  Much of what they peddle is Reagan nostalgia, which is pure revisionism- Reagan compromised and negotiated to an extent that he would be called a RINO today, which also made him someone who could govern very effectively with a Democratic House his entire administration.

I don't think that's a viable path going forward, unless they are willing to become a permanent minority.  There is a reason half of all young people support Socialism over Capitalism-the old GOP is unwilling to talk about difficult issues like student debt, housing costs, the insane wealth gap and the hollowing out of the middle class.  You have to have a better answer to this than "shut up and slave away for Jeff Bezos".  The old GOP also won't explain why corporations should hire foreign labor instead of US citizens at a below-market rate (think big tech).  

GDP and low tax rates aren't a religion.  Although Trump hasn't been as populist/pro-worker as he campaigned on in 2016,  I view him as a transitional figure from one version of the GOP to another version, hopefully one that looks like what DR. RI described above-an interpretation of conservatism that actually "conserves" what makes America great.
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