If the EC were abolished, how would the Republicans win?
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  If the EC were abolished, how would the Republicans win?
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Author Topic: If the EC were abolished, how would the Republicans win?  (Read 16927 times)
MillennialModerate
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« on: March 08, 2020, 10:44:18 AM »

If the electoral college was abolished - how dominate would the Democrats be at the Presidential level?
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538Electoral
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« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2020, 10:08:36 PM »

By pointing out how the Democrat leadership messed up the cities.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2020, 07:37:33 AM »

If there was no electoral college, Democrats would win every single presidential election going forward.

Republicans would be forced to nominate candidates more in the mold of John Kasich than Donald Trump.  Republicans would be forced to alter some of their more insane beliefs, like sexual orientation being a choice or a lifestyle.
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2020, 08:22:15 AM »

I don't understand the "if the EC was abolished, Dems would win everything" talking point. Trump didn't lose the PV by that much, people. 2004 wasn't that long ago.

Remember that as recently as 2012, people were saying the EC favored Democrats. This could easily be the case in 10 years when states like AZ and GA become D - leaning, and Texas is a tossup.
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2020, 03:20:11 PM »

Remember that as recently as 2012, people were saying the EC favored Democrats. This could easily be the case in 10 years when states like AZ and GA become D - leaning, and Texas is a tossup.

Yes, the EC has recently favored Democrats and that will in all likelihood be even more so the case (in a lopsided manner) going forward imo.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2020, 03:32:16 PM »

Tone down their candidates/platform to the extent that they're able to win more nationwide votes than the Democratic nominee.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2020, 06:33:04 PM »

The millions of suburban Republican voters in California and New York would suddenly become relevant again, thus prompting the Republicans to back-off some of their recent forays into protectionism.

Meanwhile, Democrats would suddenly have to play much harder to Black voters in the South as a key component of winning nationally.   
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2020, 10:09:09 PM »

Winning by campaigning elsewhere. Just like they do under our current system, and just like the Dem party would do on the new one.
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Pericles
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« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2020, 12:04:24 AM »

I don't understand the "if the EC was abolished, Dems would win everything" talking point. Trump didn't lose the PV by that much, people. 2004 wasn't that long ago.

Remember that as recently as 2012, people were saying the EC favored Democrats. This could easily be the case in 10 years when states like AZ and GA become D - leaning, and Texas is a tossup.

Yeah, the popular vote isn't Safe D. Maybe if Trump had run a better campaign, he could have won the popular vote. Republicans have also won the popular vote in a majority of House elections in the 21st century, and won it in 3/5 House elections that coincided with a presidential election (including the 2016 election). While Democrats probably do have a slight advantage, it's not a big one.

The reason the Electoral College should be abolished is not for partisan reasons but because it's an undemocratic system that does not accurately translate the will of the people into election results and makes some votes matter more based on the arbitrary distinction of which state people live in.
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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2020, 06:32:35 AM »

Although Trump had a nearly 3 point advantage in the EC in 2016 (and that's likely the case this year), it will swing back when Texas is a toss up and AZ and GA lean D, as mentioned.

Also, Obama had a significant EC advantage in 2008, and a modest one in 2012 and 2004 for Kerry.


Republicans would initially lose 2 or 3 elections if the EC was abolished, but they'd recover by focusing in metropolitan areas and with voters born from 1980-2000 (at least, if they're politically adept).  They would also become more economically moderate.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10 on: April 24, 2020, 10:40:41 AM »

Remember that as recently as 2012, people were saying the EC favored Democrats. This could easily be the case in 10 years when states like AZ and GA become D - leaning, and Texas is a tossup.

Yes, the EC has recently favored Democrats and that will in all likelihood be even more so the case (in a lopsided manner) going forward imo.

What do you envision here?  Are you thinking of something like this becoming normal?

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jake_arlington
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« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2020, 03:14:46 PM »

Remember that as recently as 2012, people were saying the EC favored Democrats. This could easily be the case in 10 years when states like AZ and GA become D - leaning, and Texas is a tossup.

Yes, the EC has recently favored Democrats and that will in all likelihood be even more so the case (in a lopsided manner) going forward imo.

What do you envision here?  Are you thinking of something like this becoming normal?



Yes - though, not quite so dramatically. For instance I would clearly take issue with OR / NJ turning "blue" nor KS going red. However the south could be a plausible ground for surprise gains in the dem party, swinging away from the GOP like thus. Again though, the EC count would slowly go obsolete under an NPV system, though inevitably there will be a few straggling #contrarian analysts studying how the results would have turned out with WTA and who "benefited" from this change, etc. of course, as always.
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Redban
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« Reply #12 on: April 24, 2020, 04:27:42 PM »

Republicans would campaign in NY and California. There are sizeable Republicans in those states (as a number, not as a percentage of the state’s electorate). So increase the vote total in those states, hold on the currently Republican states, and they have a shot.

It’s speculative to think that Republicans wouldn’t win. If they knew they needed the popular vote, then they would campaign differently than they do now.
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2020, 07:03:38 PM »

By simply winning.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #14 on: April 25, 2020, 02:09:32 AM »

The party system would realign in such a way as to make elections competitive again. That's just how things tend to work. It wouldn't even take much to nullify Democrats' popular vote advantage, just shift a small percentage of one of their demographics (upper-middle-class suburbanites are an obvious bet, but Latinos could be a possibility too - as could further erosion among the WWC).
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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #15 on: April 25, 2020, 06:18:26 PM »

Remember that as recently as 2012, people were saying the EC favored Democrats. This could easily be the case in 10 years when states like AZ and GA become D - leaning, and Texas is a tossup.

Yes, the EC has recently favored Democrats and that will in all likelihood be even more so the case (in a lopsided manner) going forward imo.

What do you envision here?  Are you thinking of something like this becoming normal?



If current trends continue, that's a very plausible 2036/2040 map if you flip MS and probably IL and NJ.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #16 on: April 25, 2020, 09:59:14 PM »

Republicans would campaign in NY and California. There are sizeable Republicans in those states (as a number, not as a percentage of the state’s electorate). So increase the vote total in those states, hold on the currently Republican states, and they have a shot.

It’s speculative to think that Republicans wouldn’t win. If they knew they needed the popular vote, then they would campaign differently than they do now.

I agree with this for 2016.  Most of the 2016 3rd party vote was for right-leaning candidates and 3rd parties ran better in non-competitive states.  Combine that with Trump making 0 effort in California and Clinton putting effort into some of the wrong places for the EC, and Clinton falling short of a majority in the PV, and it becomes very plausible Trump could win an election contested on NPV rules.  Because of the 3rd party vote, I would go so far as to say Trump would be favored if the NPV election had a runoff round.

However, Bush's win in 2000 IMO can only be explained as a fluke of the EC and plurality wins.  Bush was already from Texas and he campaigned actively in California, so unlike Trump I don't see how he squeezes more votes out of either of those states?  And if there's a runoff round it's abundantly clear Gore picks up a lot of the Nader vote.  A runoff result could easily be 52 Gore/48 Bush.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #17 on: April 28, 2020, 10:26:16 AM »

Remember that as recently as 2012, people were saying the EC favored Democrats. This could easily be the case in 10 years when states like AZ and GA become D - leaning, and Texas is a tossup.

Yes, the EC has recently favored Democrats and that will in all likelihood be even more so the case (in a lopsided manner) going forward imo.

What do you envision here?  Are you thinking of something like this becoming normal?



Why does everything think Illinois will become a solid GOP state in the future when assuming future coalitions hold? Which they may not.

I have seen people say that the GOP must win Illinois to adapt to losing to losing Texas. Uh, by that time the state will have 16 electoral votes compared to Texas having over 40. And Illinois 16 electoral votes would be dominated by a very Democratic metro area. People often forget that downstate Illinois is losing population quicker than Chicagoland and there are parts of downstate that are demographically trending D.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: May 10, 2020, 07:48:44 AM »

They are going in the minority anyways, since mass retirements are happening and no, the North won't go R while South goes D
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GeorgeBFree
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« Reply #19 on: July 09, 2020, 02:08:06 AM »

It would be tough. Going moderate like many advocate on here wouldn’t work as any gain from Kasich supporting crowd will be offset by those further right who just give up on voting outright. Options going forward would be:

1. Republicans will either become junior party that occasionally puts check on left moving too fast, but never controlling all branches of government (like New England politics currently). Win 1 out 5 presidential elections at most and stay legislative minority.

2. The winning strategy is full populist (Fiscal left/social conservative). Fiscal conservatives are dying breed in electorate until the federal government or a large state government goes BK.

The  GOP would abandon fiscal conservatism in its official platform (already have in practice) and run to the left of Democrats on economic policy/safety net (adopt more generous version Yang’s UBI, medicare for all citizens, higher tariffs, higher taxes on the rich, etc.) while maintaining social conservative views. This would win over both white and minority working classes at the expense of losing libertarians and upper middle class professionals who are already trending Democrat. GOP would also have to work closer and drop hostility towards organized labor. This would be winning ticket, but also equal the death of American conservatism.
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Saint Milei
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« Reply #20 on: July 09, 2020, 03:05:59 AM »

It would be tough. Going moderate like many advocate on here wouldn’t work as any gain from Kasich supporting crowd will be offset by those further right who just give up on voting outright. Options going forward would be:

1. Republicans will either become junior party that occasionally puts check on left moving too fast, but never controlling all branches of government (like New England politics currently). Win 1 out 5 presidential elections at most and stay legislative minority.

2. The winning strategy is full populist (Fiscal left/social conservative). Fiscal conservatives are dying breed in electorate until the federal government or a large state government goes BK.

The  GOP would abandon fiscal conservatism in its official platform (already have in practice) and run to the left of Democrats on economic policy/safety net (adopt more generous version Yang’s UBI, medicare for all citizens, higher tariffs, higher taxes on the rich, etc.) while maintaining social conservative views. This would win over both white and minority working classes at the expense of losing libertarians and upper middle class professionals who are already trending Democrat. GOP would also have to work closer and drop hostility towards organized labor. This would be winning ticket, but also equal the death of American conservatism.

check your inbox
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GeorgeBFree
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« Reply #21 on: July 09, 2020, 02:57:53 PM »

I'm unable to read message yet. Must be due to having new account.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #22 on: July 13, 2020, 09:33:03 AM »

Move to the middle.  Have a nominally pro-life platform but mostly do nothing about abortion, ala Tories in the UK and Canada.  Speak out against things like Drag Queen Story Hour but support bills like the Equality Act.  Support private insurance with a public option.  Etc.
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Saint Milei
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« Reply #23 on: July 13, 2020, 01:13:51 PM »

Max out the white vote and cater to middle america. Dems cant win on identity politics alone
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2020, 04:07:02 PM »

It would be tough. Going moderate like many advocate on here wouldn’t work as any gain from Kasich supporting crowd will be offset by those further right who just give up on voting outright. Options going forward would be:

1. Republicans will either become junior party that occasionally puts check on left moving too fast, but never controlling all branches of government (like New England politics currently). Win 1 out 5 presidential elections at most and stay legislative minority.

2. The winning strategy is full populist (Fiscal left/social conservative). Fiscal conservatives are dying breed in electorate until the federal government or a large state government goes BK.

The  GOP would abandon fiscal conservatism in its official platform (already have in practice) and run to the left of Democrats on economic policy/safety net (adopt more generous version Yang’s UBI, medicare for all citizens, higher tariffs, higher taxes on the rich, etc.) while maintaining social conservative views. This would win over both white and minority working classes at the expense of losing libertarians and upper middle class professionals who are already trending Democrat. GOP would also have to work closer and drop hostility towards organized labor. This would be winning ticket, but also equal the death of American conservatism.


What do you mean by "the GOP already have in pratice abandoned fiscal conservatism"Huh
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