How would the electoral college be if the 435 representative rule never happened

[muon2]

With the release of the 2020 apportionment populations I can continue the series. In this timeline the 1929 act never happened to lock in 435 members in the House, but instead codified what had been common practice since the Civil War. Initially no state could lose a seat due to reapportionment, but that was modified by the 1947 Act such that no state that gains population over the decade can lose seats. In 2010 the total in the House was 1140 members.

In the 2020 Census IL, MS and WV lost population and both IL and WV lose a seat as OH is the last to be brought up to their status quo. VT and WY remain with 2 seats, so DC continues to get 4 electors. There are now 1193 members in the House and the average district has 278 K inhabitants.

[Skill and Chance]

I agree with using the Cube Root Rule. It certainly is the best method, due to being very objective.

The Wyoming Rule could cause massive fluctuations in House size depending on what the smallest state is, and how its growing in relation with the largest state (obviously not a problem now but it could be in the future). The Cube Root Rule, though, is more stable, so I like it. 👍

For example, let's try out the 2000, 2016, and 2020 elections with the Cube Root Rule:

2000 U.S. Presidential election

NOTES:
Populations apportioned based on the 1990 U.S. Census;
CT and RI have 10 and 5 EVs respectively

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[D] Al Gore/Joe Lieberman - 367 Electoral Votes - 48.5% of the popular vote ✅

[R] George W. Bush/Dick Cheney - 364 Electoral Votes - 47.9% of the popular vote

Beautiful!!!

2016 U.S. Presidential election

NOTES:
Populations apportioned based on the 2010 U.S. Census;
CT and RI have 10 and 4 EVs respectively

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[R] Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 443 Electoral Votes - 45.9% of the popular vote  ✅

[D] Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine - 335 Electoral Votes - 48.0% of the popular vote

Due to the winner-take-all system used in most states, Clinton still takes the L.

Also, yes, I'm ignoring Maine and Nebraska both here and in the 2020 election. Not gonna try to make guesses.

2020 U.S. Presidential election

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[D] Joe Biden/Kamala Harris - 442 Electoral Votes - 51.3% of the popular vote  ✅

[R] Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 336 Electoral Votes - 46.8% of the popular vote

Interesting, so cube root isn't enough of an increase in the House to break the EC tie for Biden if he had lost WI/AZ/GA.

[Skill and Chance]

I remain surprised by how the EC bias managed to increase in 2020.  2012->16 has an obvious explanation with the massive swing from Romney to 3rd parties in California and Texas, but in 2020 California swung back right a bit and Texas didn't narrow very much.   Was it just that 435 was a bad US House size for Biden and he could have won with just MI and PA and the Nebraska EV under other circumstances (which would basically be the same EC bias as 2016)?  Or is this something inevitable with winner-take-all like 2016 was, like wasted Biden votes in the NE?