Will Massachusetts ever vote R for prez again in the next 50 years?

[iceman]

Looking at the Massachusetts results since 2000, the Percentages have been very stable around 59%-62% for the D candidates. Will it ever vote for a R prez candidate again in the next 50 years barring a reagan-esque 1984 landslide scenario?

[Nyvin]

The major parties would both have to completely re-align from where they're at right now.

[Roll Roons]

50 years is a really long time, especially in politics. With the exceptions of Alaska, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and DC, every state has been won by presidential candidates from both parties within the past 50 years. I'll say it's possible, though definitely not before 2030 at the earliest.

[morgankingsley]

Maybe in fifty years, since by that point it will have gone D for nearly a century, which is almost as long as the south stayed D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No

[Redban]

50 years is enough for big change. The parties will be quite different. America will be well into its status as a minority-majority.

[AN63093]

50 years is a long time, but MA is one of only a handful of states in the US that I could conceivably see staying D (some others include WA, CA, VA).

Unlike the rest of New England, where it's possible it will flip R (if not likely), and in some cases is flipping already, MA is an exception for several reasons:

First, most of New England is either barely growing or actually shrinking (i.e., VT and CT), and MA is the only state that is actually kinda growing (it's still below the national average, but it's the closest).  It also nearly has the largest non-white population, whereas the rest of New England consists of some of the whitest states in the US (ME and VT being #1 and #2, at over 94%).  CT does beat MA in terms of non-white population % here, but one big difference is that a lot of the non-white growth in CT is in some areas in the NY metro in Fairfield Cty (such as Stamford, which also happens to be one of the few areas growing in CT), and these areas make up a smaller proportion of the state than say, Boston does in MA.

Now compare to Boston- the MSA is nearly 4.9m now, and makes up somewhere around 70% of the state's population (not to mention, is almost entirely responsible for driving population growth in MA).  So I'm much more confident that it will dictate the rest of the state's politics (particularly since the whiter parts of the state are basically de-populating) than in a state like CT, which I think is more likely to resemble the rest of New England in the long term.  Then again, CT has links to the NY metro which will keep it from flipping before pretty much any other state (I think even VT and especially RI flip first, even though they superficially appear to be more D-leaning, the demographics are much more favorable to the GOP there).

In addition, Boston has the type of demographic mix that is almost tailor-made for the direction the Dem party is going, especially when you consider things like industrial base and employment areas.  I can think of very few constituencies that are R leaning in Boston (perhaps none?), more so than almost any other MSA in the US except say, the SF Bay Area or Seattle.

I think this is reflected in trend, where every other state (even CT) trended R in '16, some by significant margins like ME and RI.  MA was the lone exception, trending D more than almost any other state in the US... only a few beat it out.

Now obviously that may or may not continue, all I'm saying is the background conditions are there for MA to stay D for the foreseeable future, where that is considerably less clear for the rest of New England.  Even if there is a realignment (which there appears to be the possible beginnings of one underway now), it does not appear this is the type of realignment where MA would flip (though the rest of New England could and probably will).  Rather we would need the type of realignment where most of the country depolarizes such as it was before the Reagan era and there is currently no evidence that we are heading in that direction.

[Grassroots]

Uhhhh Charlie Baker 2024?

[iceman]

Uhhhh Charlie Baker 2024?

Mitt Romney 2012

[Nightcore Nationalist]

By 2070?

Yes, but it's going to take much longer than states like Vermont, Rhode Island, Conneticut or even New Jersey.  30 years from now, both of the parties will look unrecognizable from their current/outgoing form.