Is Iowa still a swing state?
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  Is Iowa still a swing state?
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Author Topic: Is Iowa still a swing state?  (Read 2842 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #25 on: March 10, 2020, 06:37:20 PM »

In my own made up terminology, I consider it to be a battleground state but not a swing state.

Swing state: the states that are plausible or semi-plausible tipping point states
Battleground state: the states that could plausibly vote for either party given a particularly good/bad environment

Iowa was the tipping-point state in 2008, which is unlikely for a state with so few electoral votes. Iowa has demographics similar to those of Wisconsin, so if Michigan gets Biden to 264 or so electoral votes and Iowa votes for him by a larger margin than Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin it would be the tipping-point state.

Iowa gave the majority of its votes for its US House seats, so such is possible. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #26 on: March 10, 2020, 07:16:44 PM »

Ernst isnt Grassley and she wont win by 10 points that she beat Braley by, she is only up 6 pts
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #27 on: March 10, 2020, 08:23:27 PM »

Yes. Tilt R, but like, still very much a toss-up.


I do think Iowa is much more elastic than Ohio and Florida

All Atlas clichés rattled off, well done.

I get thinking FL has more of a chance of voting Dem than IA, but why  Ohio.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #28 on: March 12, 2020, 05:36:25 AM »

Reverse my previous prediction, IA isnt a swing state
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MarkD
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« Reply #29 on: March 12, 2020, 11:44:53 PM »

In my own made up terminology, I consider it to be a battleground state but not a swing state.

Swing state: the states that are plausible or semi-plausible tipping point states
Battleground state: the states that could plausibly vote for either party given a particularly good/bad environment

Lol I use your definition of a battleground for "swing states" instead, but for me country states are instead wherever GE candidates spend most of their time

I agree with your definition of "swing state," and your definition of "country state" is my term for a battleground state.

So you see, Bronz, that we have to have a commonly understood definition of "swing state" to answer your question. I would not rate Iowa as a "swing state" according to Orser's definition of one or but I would according to Jake's, and I would call Iowa a battleground state. I expect both Biden and Trump to invest time and money on the state trying to win it because there is, as I see it, some plausibility that it could go either way.
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #30 on: March 13, 2020, 03:32:03 PM »


In my own made up terminology, I consider it to be a battleground state but not a swing state.

Swing state: the states that are plausible or semi-plausible tipping point states
Battleground state: the states that could plausibly vote for either party given a particularly good/bad environment

Lol I use your definition of a battleground for "swing states" instead, but for me country states are instead wherever GE candidates spend most of their time

I agree with your definition of "swing state," and your definition of "country state" is my term for a battleground state.

So you see, Bronz, that we have to have a commonly understood definition of "swing state" to answer your question. I would not rate Iowa as a "swing state" according to Orser's definition of one or but I would according to Jake's, and I would call Iowa a battleground state. I expect both Biden and Trump to invest time and money on the state trying to win it because there is, as I see it, some plausibility that it could go either way.

Omg I am so sorry lol. It looks like the autocorrect turned "battleground" into "country" for whateve reason it must've. Moving on though anyway, it looks like we and you booth agree on that one question.

However, as to Iowa specifically, for us it just looks like it's fallen off the map and over our radar altogether, as though history.

And looking back, one could certainly make an argument for IA being swing according to you/my definition of one, in fact it is one of the easiest suspects and most direct/obvious options or actually bouncing back and forth.

Going forward though, i think i would expect it to be solidly leaning red at least, and so no, it really isn't a swing state either, if that means (someplace that is consistently won by more than a single party, i.e. has not been safe) really. However, it's doubtful they will visit it either, due to unlikelihood of its status being seen as a potential target of course, or poorly ranking in one's analysis of the midwestern see-saw races.

So nor should Iowa become a battleground in 2020 unless national and regional picture both shift substantially toward Biden in my view, and a measly 6 EV worth paltry amount, and not to mention a share of famously scrutinous and critical audience who will pick apart at every flaw once paying attention to the campaign during last stretch of GE this fall. Guess only we shall just have to wait however before seeing and (as) such, to be sure.
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here2view
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« Reply #31 on: March 15, 2020, 10:24:27 AM »

No, it's Lean R at best for Democrats. I personally think it's Likely R and Trump will win by 7-8.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #32 on: March 17, 2020, 01:58:04 AM »

DEMS arent contesting IA due to its rural population
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #33 on: June 07, 2020, 04:59:16 AM »

DEMS arent contesting IA due to its rural population

It is now close.

Its aggregate vote for the House of Representatives was a clear majority for Democrats in 2018. 2010 and 2014 were Tea Party elections, and 2016 is an anomaly for Iowa in Presidential elections.

If the Democrats can lock down Michigan and Pennsylvania solidly, then Iowa's six electoral votes would be enough to win the Presidential election. Iowa has another attraction for Democratic attention: a highly-vulnerable Republican incumbent Senator. She is more likely to lose Iowa than is Trump, as she has only 43% support in the early summer in a matchup with her challenger. An incumbent is a known quantity, and she needs to be at least in the mid-40's by now to have a good chance of re-election. 43% was sort-of-OK at the start of campaign season, which meant that she was within range of winning against the usual challenger if she wages a spirited and competent campaign.

   
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