2020 tidings of doom: Dems locked out of multiple CA Assembly seats
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  2020 tidings of doom: Dems locked out of multiple CA Assembly seats
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Author Topic: 2020 tidings of doom: Dems locked out of multiple CA Assembly seats  (Read 1165 times)
Epaminondas
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« on: March 05, 2020, 12:47:44 PM »
« edited: March 05, 2020, 12:51:26 PM by Epaminondas »

After Top2 results filtered in, Team Trump holds both seats in AD33, AD38 (Dem loss) and AD72.

Terrifying stuff. Might CA legislature be a tossup in 2020?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2020, 12:55:15 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2020, 12:58:22 PM by Oryxslayer »

Excusing the sarcasm...



Counts will continue till April. For example, everyone who has an atual grapple on this thing expects second place in AD72 to change in the next days...at the bare minimum.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2020, 01:02:05 PM »

Excusing the sarcasm...



This state really needs to get its s**t together when it comes to counting votes, and knowing them, they'll "conveniently" have the Democrats leading by the end.
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Nutmeg
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« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2020, 02:12:02 PM »

This state really needs to get its s**t together when it comes to counting votes, and knowing them, they'll "conveniently" have the Democrats leading by the end.

So you're alleging fraud, in addition to incompetence?
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2020, 02:19:17 PM »

This state really needs to get its s**t together when it comes to counting votes, and knowing them, they'll "conveniently" have the Democrats leading by the end.

So you're alleging fraud, in addition to incompetence?

Well I ain't calling them truthers!
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: March 05, 2020, 03:11:59 PM »

No one cares about my thread Sad

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=362642.0
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2020, 06:33:42 AM »

Counts will continue till April. For example, everyone who has an atual grapple on this thing expects second place in AD72 to change in the next days...at the bare minimum.

Evenly distributed, those 2.5M would amount to 31k votes per Assembly constituency.
While AD72 might change, it does look fairly certain AD38 will be a lockout.

Will California ever move to ranked ballot? They don't even need the Republicans for legislation any more.



I felt your doomsaying could be improved on.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2020, 09:34:16 AM »

Spoiler, 2.5 million was only a rough projection. Last night, the SoS put out a county-by-county sheet that confirmed the following, which doesn't include day-of-mailed votes which will arrive in a few more days.

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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2020, 06:22:43 PM »

Counts will continue till April. For example, everyone who has an atual grapple on this thing expects second place in AD72 to change in the next days...at the bare minimum.

Evenly distributed, those 2.5M would amount to 31k votes per Assembly constituency.
While AD72 might change, it does look fairly certain AD38 will be a lockout.

Will California ever move to ranked ballot? They don't even need the Republicans for legislation any more.



I felt your doomsaying could be improved on.
Do early votes favor Democrats? If so, will Diedre Nguyen get enough to force Tyler Diep out?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2020, 07:39:30 PM »

Counts will continue till April. For example, everyone who has an atual grapple on this thing expects second place in AD72 to change in the next days...at the bare minimum.

Evenly distributed, those 2.5M would amount to 31k votes per Assembly constituency.
While AD72 might change, it does look fairly certain AD38 will be a lockout.

Will California ever move to ranked ballot? They don't even need the Republicans for legislation any more.



I felt your doomsaying could be improved on.
Do early votes favor Democrats? If so, will Diedre Nguyen get enough to force Tyler Diep out?

The votes counted before or on election night favor tend to be the best the GOP will ever see in a CA contest. The votes counted after e-day push the count increasingly towards the democrats. For how many threads you make on CA elections, you should know this.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2020, 08:00:25 PM »

Counts will continue till April. For example, everyone who has an atual grapple on this thing expects second place in AD72 to change in the next days...at the bare minimum.

Evenly distributed, those 2.5M would amount to 31k votes per Assembly constituency.
While AD72 might change, it does look fairly certain AD38 will be a lockout.

Will California ever move to ranked ballot? They don't even need the Republicans for legislation any more.



I felt your doomsaying could be improved on.
Do early votes favor Democrats? If so, will Diedre Nguyen get enough to force Tyler Diep out?

The votes counted before or on election night favor tend to be the best the GOP will ever see in a CA contest. The votes counted after e-day push the count increasingly towards the democrats. For how many threads you make on CA elections, you should know this.
But will it be enough for Diedre Nguyen, or will Bijan Mohseni siphon too many votes?
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2020, 08:02:18 PM »

But will it be enough for Diedre Nguyen, or will Bijan Mohseni siphon too many votes?

Do early votes favor Democrats? If so, will Diedre Nguyen get enough to force Tyler Diep out?

Is Diedre Nguyen (D-AD-72) going to make the runoff, or will it be R vs. R?

Does Diedre Nguyen (D-AD-72) still have an outside chance to finish second in the primary?

Will Diedre Nguyen beat out Tyler Diep for second place in the primary?

I'm sure if you ask 5 more times, you'll get your answer
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #12 on: March 10, 2020, 07:09:32 PM »

Democrats are not doomed. Look at AD72. Diedre Nguyen is only behind Tyler Diep by 17 votes.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: March 10, 2020, 07:12:02 PM »

Well, I was gonna post the AD-72 update, but I had an inkling ERM64man would beat me to the punch.

And it looks like within 3 minutes of the update, I was right! Tongue
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #14 on: March 10, 2020, 07:33:03 PM »

Uniting behind a candidate is important in jungle primaries. A third Democrat in the AD72 primary would have locked Democrats out.
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