1974: Bill Clinton becomes Representative from AR-3; How long does he last?

[Elcaspar]

In his first run for office Bill Clinton ran against incumbent John Paul Hammerschmidt, and almost managed to unseat him due to the very Democratic nature of the midterm. But what if Bill Clinton won? How long would he have lasted as Representative?

[538Electoral]

1980.

[Continential]

1976 or 1978, I'd guess that he would run for Governor or something in 76 or 78.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Clinton would have run in the primary in 1978 against David Pryor.

In 1978, the salary of Arkansas' Governor was $10,000 per year.  Had Clinton been elected, he would have stayed in Washington. He would have run for Governor only if he couldn't get his old seat back after running. 

[Elcaspar]

Clinton would have run in the primary in 1978 against David Pryor.

In 1978, the salary of Arkansas' Governor was $10,000 per year.  Had Clinton been elected, he would have stayed in Washington. He would have run for Governor only if he couldn't get his old seat back after running.  

How well would do you think Clinton perform against Pryor? Would he win a potential run-off in the primary, or would he narrowly lose?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Clinton would have run in the primary in 1978 against David Pryor.

In 1978, the salary of Arkansas' Governor was $10,000 per year.  Had Clinton been elected, he would have stayed in Washington. He would have run for Governor only if he couldn't get his old seat back after running.  

How well would do you think Clinton perform against Pryor? Would he win a potential run-off in the primary, or would he narrowly lose?

It's hard to say.  He'd probably have lost.

Hillary Clinton was NOT popular in Arkansas.  Arkansas voters were NOT happy that she went by "Hillary Rodham"; it was a factor in Clinton's narrow loss in 1980. 

David Pryor would have had the advantage of winning statewide twice in 1978, and having run statewide a third time.  Clinton may have been prudent to wait.  However, it's also possible that Clinton would have lost Arkansas CD3 in 1980.  The 3rd district contained Fort Smith, Arkansas, which was a place where a large number of Mariel Boatlift members were housed by the Federal Government, at the behest of Jimmy Carter.  This did not go over well, and it was the leading reason Carter lost Arkansas in 1980. 

[brucejoel99]

My guess is that, as the Congressman from the whitest & most conservative district in Arkansas, he would've had to accumulate a voting record sufficiently conservative that it'd disqualify him (in a way his record as Governor of Arkansas didn't) from ever winning the Democratic presidential nomination.

And I don't even know if he could win reelection in 1976 anyway; Hammerschmidt would certainly give him a hell of a fight if he sought a rematch.

Either way, he might just get elected Governor in 1978 anyway & have his career proceed as it did in real life, except this time, when he gets elected President in 1992, he knows more about how Congress works &, as such, can actually get a health-care program passed.

[dw93]

I think he stays until being defeated in 1980 and runs for Governor in 1982.