MI-Glengariff: Biden +6

[RI]

ID and WA might be the last states Sanders wins. Not even confident about ID.

After last night, Biden probably wins WA as well.

[RI]

ID and WA might be the last states Sanders wins. Not even confident about ID.

After last night, Biden probably wins WA as well.

I cant imagine that happening.
I'm not the one who goes around saying "this candidate or that candidate should drop-out," but if Bernie were to lose Washington, he should drop-out.

The average WA Dem is a lot more moderate than people seem to think on this site. Seattle progressives are not the norm. I've lived all over WA for 25+ years, and I'll call this now: Unless Biden somehow collapses in the next week or Warren drops out, Bernie will not cross 35% of the vote in WA, much less get the 40-45% it will take to win.

[RI]

ID and WA might be the last states Sanders wins. Not even confident about ID.

After last night, Biden probably wins WA as well.

I cant imagine that happening.
I'm not the one who goes around saying "this candidate or that candidate should drop-out," but if Bernie were to lose Washington, he should drop-out.

The average WA Dem is a lot more moderate than people seem to think on this site. Seattle progressives are not the norm. I've lived all over WA for 25+ years, and I'll call this now: Unless Biden somehow collapses in the next week or Warren drops out, Bernie will not cross 35% of the vote in WA, much less get the 40-45% it will take to win.

My experience in WA has been very different, and while Democrats are somewhat more moderate in certain parts of the state, the Puget Sound area really dominates elections, and unless Biden can at least come close in the Seattle area, I don't think he pulls it out. Probably not a decisive win for Sanders, but I'd sooner bet on him.

Biden will not win Seattle proper, but he will sweep through Everett, Lynnwood, Bothell, Bellevue, Sammamish, Renton, Kent, Auburn, Federal Way, Tacoma, Puyallup, Bremerton, etc., just as Biden won Hennepin County despite likely losing Minneapolis. The Seattle suburbs are booming and teeming with moderate Dems and former moderate Republicans who fled the GOP in 2016.

[RI]

ID and WA might be the last states Sanders wins. Not even confident about ID.

After last night, Biden probably wins WA as well.

I cant imagine that happening.
I'm not the one who goes around saying "this candidate or that candidate should drop-out," but if Bernie were to lose Washington, he should drop-out.

The average WA Dem is a lot more moderate than people seem to think on this site. Seattle progressives are not the norm. I've lived all over WA for 25+ years, and I'll call this now: Unless Biden somehow collapses in the next week or Warren drops out, Bernie will not cross 35% of the vote in WA, much less get the 40-45% it will take to win.

My experience in WA has been very different, and while Democrats are somewhat more moderate in certain parts of the state, the Puget Sound area really dominates elections, and unless Biden can at least come close in the Seattle area, I don't think he pulls it out. Probably not a decisive win for Sanders, but I'd sooner bet on him.

Biden will not win Seattle proper, but he will sweep through Everett, Lynnwood, Bothell, Bellevue, Sammamish, Renton, Kent, Auburn, Federal Way, Tacoma, Puyallup, Bremerton, etc., just as Biden won Hennepin County despite likely losing Minneapolis. The Seattle suburbs are booming and teeming with moderate Dems and former moderate Republicans who fled the GOP in 2016.

I don't think MN is really comparable, since the Klobuchar endorsement likely gave Biden a huge boost. I could see Biden doing well in Tacoma, but I don't think he'll sweep through Renton or Bellevue, given the high Latino and Asian populations there.

Well, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree and see what happens next week. Hopefully we'll get some polling in the meantime.