Congressional Primary Results Megathread

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

TX-31 D for Imam

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like Tony Gonzales will pull out the win in TX-23. He's down by just 300 votes and all the outstanding precincts are in Bexar County, where he leads 60-40. Great news for the GOP - he could easily be another Mike Garcia (although Gina Ortiz-Jones is a much better candidate than Smith).

Right on cure Bexar hits 100% and Reyes maintains a 130 vote lead. Last three counties with Precincts are El Paso and two tiny rurals. Reyes leads El Paso, each candidate has a rural.

https://home.bexar.org/el45a.html

Bexar has 10/214 voting centers unreported.

And we both can be right. Bexar has not hit 100% reporting, but it has in the borders of TX23.

[LimoLiberal]

Looks like Tony Gonzales will pull out the win in TX-23. He's down by just 300 votes and all the outstanding precincts are in Bexar County, where he leads 60-40. Great news for the GOP - he could easily be another Mike Garcia (although Gina Ortiz-Jones is a much better candidate than Smith).

Right on cure Bexar hits 100% and Reyes maintains a 130 vote lead. Last three counties with Precincts are El Paso and two tiny rurals. Reyes leads El Paso, each candidate has a rural.

https://home.bexar.org/el45a.html

Bexar has 10/214 voting centers unreported.

And we both can be right. Bexar has not hit 100% reporting, but it has in the borders of TX23.

The NYT has been showing 100% reporting in Bexar for two hours even as more votes came in if that's where you're getting the 100% number from. I'm just assuming that at least one of those 10 vote centers is in TX-23. I know there are other congressional districts in Bexar County.

[n1240]

Looks like Tony Gonzales will pull out the win in TX-23. He's down by just 300 votes and all the outstanding precincts are in Bexar County, where he leads 60-40. Great news for the GOP - he could easily be another Mike Garcia (although Gina Ortiz-Jones is a much better candidate than Smith).

Right on cure Bexar hits 100% and Reyes maintains a 130 vote lead. Last three counties with Precincts are El Paso and two tiny rurals. Reyes leads El Paso, each candidate has a rural.

https://home.bexar.org/el45a.html

Bexar has 10/214 voting centers unreported.

And we both can be right. Bexar has not hit 100% reporting, but it has in the borders of TX23.

Problem is NYTimes/Edison"precincts reporting", I'm pretty sure is actually expected vote now rather than actual precincts reporting in some states. Some of their percentage reporting numbers do not make any sense at all, looking at some in the Dem primary runoff. For example they say 58% reporting in Harris County but they've reported from 101/109 vote centers and with an average of 354 votes reported per vote center, extrapolating this result would give about 154k votes which is way off from the extrapolated result of 260k votes from NYTimes/Edison.

There's also the issue to consider that voters can choose to vote at any vote center within the county, therefore making it nearly impossible to exclude the possibility that there are no votes remaining the TX-23 portion of the district, unless NYTimes/Edison has data on every voter who showed up to the polls in Bexar County today, which seems unlikely.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

TX-SEN D for Hegar!

The following races are not called by DDNN:

ME-2 R
TX-18 R
TX-20 R
TX-23 R
TX-35 R

[n1240]

More evidence towards how obscure the NYTimes precincts reporting number is:

Despite being at "100% reporting" in the TX-23 portion of Bexar County, and having 95% of vote centers reporting, they somehow have TX-20, which is entirely in Bexar County, at 45% reporting.

[Oryxslayer]

Well Bexar is done according to their website and Gonzales is ahead by 3(!) votes. So, the question is what if anything is out there still to count.

TX SOS has a Reyes lead of 11 votes, but are behind in the count by 103 total votes when compared to the press.

[n1240]

Well Bexar is done according to their website and Gonzales is ahead by 3(!) votes.

Looks like recount territory at this point since the amount of outstanding vote is very small. El Paso claims 14/22 precincts reporting in the TX-23 portion of the county. Gonzales clearly leads election day vote 87-75 there.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

Reeves, La Salle, El Paso counties all have votes out

Well Bexar is done according to their website and Gonzales is ahead by 3(!) votes. So, the question is what if anything is out there still to count.

TX SOS has a Reyes lead of 9 votes, but are behind in the count by 103 total votes when compared to the press.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

Calling TX-20 R for Garza

[Oryxslayer]

Reeves, La Salle, El Paso counties all have votes out

Well Bexar is done according to their website and Gonzales is ahead by 3(!) votes. So, the question is what if anything is out there still to count.

TX SOS has a Reyes lead of 9 votes, but are behind in the count by 103 total votes when compared to the press.

Once again, we have to ask the question: do you trust the NYT/AP data? Because TX SOS puts them all at 100%, but that itself is faulty given when we know of El Paso.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

Reeves, La Salle, El Paso counties all have votes out

Well Bexar is done according to their website and Gonzales is ahead by 3(!) votes. So, the question is what if anything is out there still to count.

TX SOS has a Reyes lead of 9 votes, but are behind in the count by 103 total votes when compared to the press.

Once again, we have to ask the question: do you trust the NYT/AP data? Because TX SOS puts them all at 100%, but that itself is faulty given when we know of El Pasa/

It's DDNN policy to trust NYT on this sort of thing

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

Calling TX-18 R for Champion

[n1240]

Well Bexar is done according to their website and Gonzales is ahead by 3(!) votes.

Looks like recount territory at this point since the amount of outstanding vote is very small. El Paso claims 14/22 precincts reporting in the TX-23 portion of the county. Gonzales clearly leads election day vote 87-75 there.

Further analysis based on precinct data:

Early vote in precincts reporting some election day votes: Reyes 99 Gonzales 95
Early vote in precincts reporting no election day votes: Reyes 63 Gonzales 24

Would expect Reyes might be able to take a lead again based on this information once El Paso releases the rest of their results.

edit: Gonzales ended up increasing his lead by 4 votes from remaining El Paso vote. Probably some provisional ballots/military ballots districtwide to consider as well but I'd assume this would favor Gonzales?

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

NYT says El Paso is done now, and Gonzalez's lead increases to 7 votes. La Salle and Reeves still counting.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

TX-35 R for Sharon

Uncalled:
ME-2 R
TX-23 R
NY-12 D
NY-15 D
NY-16 D

Next primaries aren't until Aug. 4 so hopefully all these races can finish up before then.

[Dr. MB]

https://twitter.com/SecularTexasDem/status/1283394443081547776?s=20

Four secular donkeys won their primaries yesterday!

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

Eliot Engel is finally declared to have lost: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/17/engel-ousted-in-new-york-primary-after-lengthy-vote-count-367328

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

Dale Crafts wins ME-2 R

Uncalled:
TX-23 R
NY-12 D
NY-15 D

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/aaronlarnavarro/status/1285694738075705347?s=20

Current status of TX23 R. It's going to come down to whether there is a recount or not.

[Knives]

how tf are NY elections still going? what a joke

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

how tf are NY elections still going? what a joke

The two districts left are entirely in NYC which says it won't be releasing any more results until they have all the results

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

There have been tentative counts published for TX-23 R showing Gonzalez winning by 46 votes but Reyes has not conceded and we should expect a recount.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Has Carolyn Maloney officially won/lost or not?
If not this is getting ridiculous.

[Oryxslayer]

Has Carolyn Maloney officially won/lost or not?
If not this is getting ridiculous.

The answer to this question is continued ridiculousness.