CA State House/Senate 2020 Megathread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Well, I was gonna post the AD-72 update, but I had an inkling ERM64man would beat me to the punch.

And it looks like within 4 minutes of the update, I was right!

[I’m not Stu]

Well, I was gonna post the AD-72 update, but I had an inkling ERM64man would beat me to the punch.

And it looks like within 4 minutes of the update, I was right!

I look at it exactly at 5:00. Tyler Diep is gone.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Well, I was gonna post the AD-72 update, but I had an inkling ERM64man would beat me to the punch.

And it looks like within 4 minutes of the update, I was right!

I look at it exactly at 5:00. Tyler Diep is gone.

So that means Diedre Nguyen beats out Tyler Diep for second place in the primary?

[Epaminondas]

Thanks for the insights, people.
The battle of the Nguyens. It's not called Little Vietnam for nothing.

The margin between #2 and #3 has severely narrowed in AD38 too, from 6.6 points to 3.3 points.
There may be only one lockout after all (AD33), in the reddest constituency to boot.

It must be endlessly entertaining to be a Democrat in California during election month.

[I’m not Stu]

Well, I was gonna post the AD-72 update, but I had an inkling ERM64man would beat me to the punch.

And it looks like within 4 minutes of the update, I was right!

I look at it exactly at 5:00. Tyler Diep is gone.

So that means Diedre Nguyen beats out Tyler Diep for second place in the primary?

Yes. Janet Nguyen has a large lead for first. If this trend of early voting continues, Diep will fall out of second place.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Well, I was gonna post the AD-72 update, but I had an inkling ERM64man would beat me to the punch.

And it looks like within 4 minutes of the update, I was right!

I look at it exactly at 5:00. Tyler Diep is gone.

So that means Diedre Nguyen beats out Tyler Diep for second place in the primary?

Yes. Janet Nguyen has a large lead for first. If this trend of early voting continues, Diep will fall out of second place.

But will Diedre Nguyen beat out Tyler Diep for second place in the primary?

[I’m not Stu]

Well, I was gonna post the AD-72 update, but I had an inkling ERM64man would beat me to the punch.

And it looks like within 4 minutes of the update, I was right!

I look at it exactly at 5:00. Tyler Diep is gone.

So that means Diedre Nguyen beats out Tyler Diep for second place in the primary?

Yes. Janet Nguyen has a large lead for first. If this trend of early voting continues, Diep will fall out of second place.

But will Diedre Nguyen beat out Tyler Diep for second place in the primary?

Probably. I can’t see this trend reversing when more early votes are counted, unless there’s a surge in Democratic votes that go to Mohseni.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

1-week update. ~1.7 million ballots to go!

The 2018 Democratic flips

Assembly 16 (East Bay)
Rebecca Bauer-Kahan*  67.7%
Joseph Rubay                 32.3%

Assembly 38 (Simi Valley, Santa Clarita)
Suzette Martinez Valladares   32.2%
Lucie Lapointe Volotzky          18.2%
Annie Cho                                  12.0%
Kelvin Driscoll                            11.9%
Brandii Grace                             11.4%
Dina Cervantes                            8.3%
Susan Christopher                       5.9%

Assembly 40 (San Bernardino, Redlands)
James Ramos*   58.8%
Jennifer Tullius   41.2%

Assembly 74 (Irvine, Costa Mesa)
Cottie Petrie-Norris*   51.2%
Diane Dixon                 25.8%
Kelly Ernby                    22.9%


Assembly 76 (Carlsbad, Oceanside)
Tasha Boerner Horvath*   56.7%
Melanie Burkholder           43.3%



Clinton/Republican districts (Cox got no more than 52% of the vote in 2018)

Assembly 35 (San Luis Obispo)
Jordan Cunningham*  58.0%
Dawn Addis                 42.0%

Assembly 36 (Palmdale, Lancaster)
Tom Lackey*       54.6%
Steve Fox            16.7%
Jonathon Ervin        7.4%
Diedra Greenaway   5.8%
Michael Rives          4.9%
Ollie Mccaulley        4.3%
Lourdes Everett       3.7%
Eric Andrew Ohlsen  2.7%

Assembly 55 (Diamond Bar, Yorba Linda)
Phillip Chen*           57.3%
Andrew Rodriguez  42.7%

Assembly 68 (Irvine, Tustin)
Steve Choi*  44.5%
Melissa Fox   33.0%
Eugene Fields  12.9%
Benjamin Yu      9.6%

Assembly 72 (Garden Grove, Fountain Valley)
Janet Nguyen  34.38%
Tyler Diep*      25.20%
Diedre Nguyen    25.18%
Bijan Mohseni     15.24%

Senate 21 (Santa Clarita, High Desert)
Scott Wilk*    54.3%
Kipp Mueller  18.1%
Dana LaMon     11.7%
Warren Heaton   10.1%
Steve Hill           5.9%

Senate 29 (Yorba Linda, Fullerton)
Ling Ling Chang*  48.5%
Josh Newman        33.1%
Joseph Cho              18.4%

Senate 37 (Irvine, Costa Mesa)
John Moorlach*   48.3%
Dave Min              27.3%
Katrina Foley          24.5%



Other races to watch

Assembly 13 (Stockton, Tracy)
Carlos Villaspudua  35.3%   (Moderate)
Kathy Miller             33.3%   (Progressive)
Christina Fugazi         31.4%   (Moderate)

Assembly 42 (Palm Springs, Joshua Tree)
Chad Mayes*                 35.4%
Andrew Kotyuk             33.7%
DeniAntionette Mazingo    30.9%

Assembly 57 (Whittier, Industry)
Jessica Martinez  29.2%
Lisa Calderon       20.2%
Sylvia Rubio           17.5%
Josue Alvarado       13.5%
Vanessa Tyson         7.9%
Primo Castro           3.8%
Gary Mendez           3.4%
Dora Sandoval         2.9%
Oscar Valladares      1.6%


Assembly 77 (San Diego, Poway)
Brian Maienschein*  57.1%
June Yang Cutter      42.9%

Senate 23 (Rancho Cucamonga, Hemet)
Abigail Medina                 27.5%
Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh       25.2%
Lloyd White                        21.9%
Kris Goodfellow                  17.4%
Cristina Puraci                      8.0%

Senate 28 (Temecula, Palm Springs)
Melissa Melendez    40.6%
Elizabeth Romero    23.5%
Joy Silver                   20.9%
John Schwab              12.1%
Anna Nevenic               2.9%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Some other races that've been highlighted in this thread


Assembly 8 (Eastern Sacramento)
Ken Cooley*   54.9%
Cathy Cook     45.1%

Assembly 33 (High Desert)
Thurston Smith   38.3%
Rick Herrick        17.3%
Socorro Cisneros   13.9%
Blanca Gomez       10.1%
Anthony Rhoades    8.7%
Roger La Plante      6.5%
Alex Walton            5.2%

Assembly 73 (South OC)
Laurie Davies       27.5%
Scott Rhinehart    23.2%
Chris Duncan          18.3%
Bill Brough*            17.0%
Ed Sachs                 14.1%

[I’m not Stu]

Tyler Diep is now in third.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Tyler Diep is now in third.

Thanks for that remotely vague/cryptic update.



Assembly 55 (Diamond Bar, Yorba Linda)
Phillip Chen*           57.6%
Andrew Rodriguez  42.4%

Assembly 68 (Irvine, Tustin)
Steve Choi*   44.3%
Melissa Fox   33.3%
Eugene Fields  13.0%
Benjamin Yu      9.5%

Assembly 72 (Garden Grove, Fountain Valley)
Janet Nguyen     34.1%
Diedre Nguyen   25.3%
Tyler Diep*           25.1%
Bijan Mohseni       15.5%

Assembly 73 (South OC)
Laurie Davies       27.5%
Scott Rhinehart    23.4%
Chris Duncan          18.3%
Bill Brough*            16.8%
Ed Sachs                 14.0%

Assembly 74 (Irvine, Costa Mesa)
Cottie Petrie-Norris*   51.7%
Diane Dixon                 25.6%
Kelly Ernby                    22.7%

Senate 29 (Yorba Linda, Fullerton)
Ling Ling Chang*  48.2%
Josh Newman        33.4%
Joseph Cho              18.4%

Senate 37 (Irvine, Costa Mesa)
John Moorlach*   47.9%
Dave Min              27.6%
Katrina Foley          24.5%

[I’m not Stu]

Diedre Nguyen leads Tyler Diep by more than 700 votes.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

At this point there is a non-negligible chance Dems pick up 4 seats in the Senate (21, 23, 29, 37).

Although most likely the gain will be limited to 29 and 37.

The floor really has dropped out from under Moorlach since his 2016 race.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

At this point there is a non-negligible chance Dems pick up 4 seats in the Senate (21, 23, 29, 37).

Although most likely the gain will be limited to 29 and 37.

The floor really has dropped out from under Moorlach since his 2016 race.

Amazing that the OC GOP could go from controlling 14 legislative/congressional seats to 2-3 Assembly seats & a Senate seat in the span of 6 years

[Bojack Horseman]

If Josh Newman wins back his seat, how does his two previous years count against him in terms of term limits?

[I’m not Stu]

Diedre Nguyen leads Tyler Diep in AD72 by 827 votes.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1240085144473440258

[Nyvin]

Looks like the San Diego mayor race is going to be D vs D

[I’m not Stu]

Diedre Nguyen is still second in the primary.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Diedre Nguyen is still second in the primary.

And Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.