Super Tuesday Results Thread

[Tender Branson]

The voting process in California is a national embarrassment. Virginia figured it out in 2 hours. Come up with a process than fairly enfranchises everyone and reports the numbers before the season changes.

I'm sorry you hate a system that allows millions of people to vote early by mail and takes some time for the ballots to come in and be counted. The fact that you think California's voting system is disenfranchising.... embarrassing.

But it shouldn't take months for the results to be completely processed. I think it is very possible, and fair, to devise a system that allows for people to vote, but ensures that the results are counted without considerable delay, and so as to provide certainty to those who await them.

Months ?

4 weeks.

But yes, it should take only a few days or a week.

[Calthrina950]

The voting process in California is a national embarrassment. Virginia figured it out in 2 hours. Come up with a process than fairly enfranchises everyone and reports the numbers before the season changes.

I'm sorry you hate a system that allows millions of people to vote early by mail and takes some time for the ballots to come in and be counted. The fact that you think California's voting system is disenfranchising.... embarrassing.

But it shouldn't take months for the results to be completely processed. I think it is very possible, and fair, to devise a system that allows for people to vote, but ensures that the results are counted without considerable delay, and so as to provide certainty to those who await them.

Months ?

4 weeks.

But yes, it should take only a few days or a week.

However long it takes, it shouldn't be for too long.

[Coastal Elitist]

The voting process in California is a national embarrassment. Virginia figured it out in 2 hours. Come up with a process than fairly enfranchises everyone and reports the numbers before the season changes.

I'm sorry you hate a system that allows millions of people to vote early by mail and takes some time for the ballots to come in and be counted. The fact that you think California's voting system is disenfranchising.... embarassing.

It's inexcusable how long it's take to count all the ballots here. They obviously need to find a way to do this faster. Also the ballot harvesting that's done is very illegal everywhere else. I don't know how you can be ok with political parties going around to people's houses and gathering ballots that were not cast yet. People were given plenty of time to vote this should not be necessary. If you're ballot isn't returned by election day it should not count.

[Gass3268]

The voting process in California is a national embarrassment. Virginia figured it out in 2 hours. Come up with a process than fairly enfranchises everyone and reports the numbers before the season changes.

I'm sorry you hate a system that allows millions of people to vote early by mail and takes some time for the ballots to come in and be counted. The fact that you think California's voting system is disenfranchising.... embarassing.

It's inexcusable how long it's take to count all the ballots here. They obviously need to find a way to do this faster. Also the ballot harvesting that's done is very illegal everywhere else. I don't know how you can be ok with political parties going around to people's houses and gathering ballots that were not cast yet. People were given plenty of time to vote this should not be necessary. If you're ballot isn't returned by election day it should not count.

You say ballot harvesting, I call it GOTV.

[RI]

Don't know if such a map has been posted, but here is Harris County, TX by precinct:

Image Link

[2016]

The voting process in California is a national embarrassment. Virginia figured it out in 2 hours. Come up with a process than fairly enfranchises everyone and reports the numbers before the season changes.

I'm sorry you hate a system that allows millions of people to vote early by mail and takes some time for the ballots to come in and be counted. The fact that you think California's voting system is disenfranchising.... embarassing.

It's inexcusable how long it's take to count all the ballots here. They obviously need to find a way to do this faster. Also the ballot harvesting that's done is very illegal everywhere else. I don't know how you can be ok with political parties going around to people's houses and gathering ballots that were not cast yet. People were given plenty of time to vote this should not be necessary. If you're ballot isn't returned by election day it should not count.

I don't understand why the Networks haven't called CA. Sure, there are 2,6 Mio Votes outstanding according to the "Unprocessed Ballot Report" issued at Noon PT today but we have 76 % of the Vote counted and Sanders' lead is over 300K. I'm guessing that they're waiting on LA County which updates today. That would push the Percentage close to 80 %.

[DrScholl]

The voting process in California is a national embarrassment. Virginia figured it out in 2 hours. Come up with a process than fairly enfranchises everyone and reports the numbers before the season changes.

I'm sorry you hate a system that allows millions of people to vote early by mail and takes some time for the ballots to come in and be counted. The fact that you think California's voting system is disenfranchising.... embarassing.

It's inexcusable how long it's take to count all the ballots here. They obviously need to find a way to do this faster. Also the ballot harvesting that's done is very illegal everywhere else. I don't know how you can be ok with political parties going around to people's houses and gathering ballots that were not cast yet. People were given plenty of time to vote this should not be necessary. If you're ballot isn't returned by election day it should not count.

Ballots can be turned into precincts before the polls close and they can also be dropped off at designated drop off locations up to election day. No ballots dropped off or postmarked after election day are counted. You can't just decide to mark your ballot a week after the election and then turn it in.

[Holmes]

Isn't James Carville just the best.

- said no one, ever

[Tender Branson]

8 million votes now counted in CA, 2.4 million unprocessed left.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

The voting process in California is a national embarrassment. Virginia figured it out in 2 hours. Come up with a process than fairly enfranchises everyone and reports the numbers before the season changes.

I'm sorry you hate a system that allows millions of people to vote early by mail and takes some time for the ballots to come in and be counted. The fact that you think California's voting system is disenfranchising.... embarassing.

It's inexcusable how long it's take to count all the ballots here. They obviously need to find a way to do this faster. Also the ballot harvesting that's done is very illegal everywhere else. I don't know how you can be ok with political parties going around to people's houses and gathering ballots that were not cast yet. People were given plenty of time to vote this should not be necessary. If you're ballot isn't returned by election day it should not count.

If I might make a modest suggestion: divide California into at least four states.  Clearly there are too many votes to be counted for just one state!

[Landslide Lyndon]

In the meantime, Sanders's margin in California has shrunk to 6,7%.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1237556684114948096

[Badger]

In the meantime, Sanders's margin in California has shrunk to 6,7%.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1237556684114948096

And to think, as recent as sometime even after South Carolina my biggest concern about California was whether or not Biden would make Statewide viability.

[2016]

In the meantime, Sanders's margin in California has shrunk to 6,7%.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1237556684114948096

It doesn't matter! While Sanders Margin in Percentages (6.7%) has shrunk as you mentioned, his Raw Vote lead over Biden has actually increased to nearly 320K from 260K on Election.

I absolutely do not understand the Point by the Networks like CNN, NBC, CBS and ABC not calling CA for Sanders.
According to the Unprocessed Ballot Status at Noon today there are only 1,6 Million Ballots unprocessed. There is no way Biden can make up this gap. Remaining Ballots would have to be 70-30 or something like that to make this happen.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1238085582837989378

[Lord Halifax]

Why do you care so much about the margin in CA? The primary is de facto over, Biden isn't going to win the state and the raw numbers aren't dropping.

[Gass3268]

Why do you care so much about the margin in CA? The primary is de facto over, Biden isn't going to win the state and the raw numbers aren't dropping.

It's Atlas... It's what we do.

[W]

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1238146097606004736?s=19

Pretty sure that's the last ST call.

[Sbane]

Bernie obviously won California, but I wonder if the margin will be below 6%.

[Grassroots]

https://twitter.com/Rebekah20130837/status/1238146899145674757

https://twitter.com/Usa2020Wakeup/status/1238151233132802048


 

[n1240]

Bernie obviously won California, but I wonder if the margin will be below 6%.

Doubtful given the large proportion of provisionals and LA County ballots which are remaining.

https://twitter.com/Rebekah20130837/status/1238146899145674757

https://twitter.com/Usa2020Wakeup/status/1238151233132802048


 

I really need to refrain myself from looking at Twitter replies on electoral stuff. It always triggers me seeing people this ill-informed about how elections in certain states work.

[Grassroots]

Bernie obviously won California, but I wonder if the margin will be below 6%.

Doubtful given the large proportion of provisionals and LA County ballots which are remaining.

https://twitter.com/Rebekah20130837/status/1238146899145674757

https://twitter.com/Usa2020Wakeup/status/1238151233132802048


 

I really need to refrain myself from looking at Twitter replies on electoral stuff. It always triggers me seeing people this ill-informed about how elections in certain states work.

We really need to invest in better political education at the primary and secondary level.

[NOVA Green]

Had to some time to work through some of the updates...

Alameda County

2016 GE:    660k Votes (78-15 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  320k Votes (51-48 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/12):  326k Votes (36-25-20-11 Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)

*** 3/9/20- Uncounted Ballots- TOT EST 56k***

VbM-  16k
Provisional- 26k
Conditional- 15k

The *actual* number as of 3/12/20 is likely a bit lower, but Alameda County lags on Statewide Reporting.

Although it is a heavily DEM County, we had two vote updates since the uncounted ballot report which added another 9k Votes....

Note to see a decent sized image of the charts you will want to right click and open in new window to be able to actually see the charts....






So if we look at these combined data numbers it *appears* as if we still have a decent chunk of DEM/NPP ballots out there, most likely at this point which will shortly skew Provisional or Conditional...

It's a bit tricky in a multiple candidate race (Five active on Election Night) as well as possibly a certain % of the DEM ballots outstanding that were cast before Amy,Pete,Steyer dropped out)...

Still, I would give a bit of an edge to Sanders on outstanding ballots remaining, considering in '16 Provisional ballots here broke heavily Sanders.

Note that the Sanders % of the vote has increased +0.8% since election night, versus Biden's % only increasing +0.3%. Warren's numbers increased the most +1.8, while Bloomberg dropped a bit, as well as the "other category", other than Gabbard likely representing those candidates who had dropped out of the race by the time a decent chunk of the voters cast their ballots....

I haven't been able to locate an updated precinct map yet, but if anyone has one floating around that would be awesome!!!!

[NOVA Green]

San Francisco County

2016 GE:    408k Votes (84-9 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  217k Votes (54-46 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/12):  259k Votes  (120% from '16!!!)   

(34-24-23-11 Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)

Although I'm not sure exactly what this means, it appears to me that vote counting is nearly complete (including provisional ballots).

https://sfelections.sfgov.org/article/preliminary-election-results-report-12-and-ballot-processing-update-san-francisco-department

My suspicion is that the well is drying up in the County which was one of the closest to the Statewide numbers during the '16 DEM PRIM in the binary HRC-Sanders contest.

Note to see a decent sized image of the charts you will want to right click and open in new window to be able to actually see the charts....

SF CO: Raw Votes







So here we see a massive increase in raw votes over '16, which possibly might be explained partially by the massive lack of popularity for Trump, as well as to a slightly lesser extent increased growth within the City....

Bernie gained 1.7% from ED to 3/12, Biden gained 2.0%, Bloomberg lost 1.9%, Warren gained 1.4%....

Warren supported peaked on 3/5 and almost tied Biden...

Either way it looks like it's going to be roughly a 34-24 Bernie-Biden lead...

Again, anybody who can pull the current precinct maps together would be awesome, since the numbers have changed a bit since the last update, and I haven't been able to easily find a precinct map of the City yet....

[n1240]

San Francisco gave an idea of how strong provisionals are going to Sanders. Biden was trimming the margin up until Friday (percentage, not raw margin), then the margin started going up again this week as they counted provisionals, with Sanders winning some batches by upwards of around 30 points.

[NOVA Green]

Santa Clara County

2016 GE:    708k Votes (73-21 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  278k Votes (57-42 HRC-Sanders)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/12):  315k Votes (+113% increase from '16)

(33-27-14-15 Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg)

*** 3/11/20- Uncounted Ballots- TOT EST 12k***

The *actual* number as of 3/12/20 is likely almost all of the ballots have been counted, considered the 3/12 updated added some 10k DEM ballots...


Note to see a decent sized image of the charts you will want to right click and open in new window to be able to actually see the charts....






So if we look at these combined data numbers it *appears* as if we still have a relatively small # of DEM/NPP ballots out there Provisionals or Conditionals...

Sanders should have a slight edge on ballots remaining, but at this point it doesn't appear it will change the results much more than 0.1% > 0.2%

Here is a County where we can clearly see the Biden surge....  (Perhaps part of some of those reports about many DEMs holding off on late voting until after ST).

Bernie's numbers went from ED to 3/12 +0.4% (Even including the vast majority of Provos)
Biden's numbers  went from ED to 3/12  +6.9%
Bloomberg   went from ED to 3/12          -4.1%
Warren        went from ED to 3/12          +1.8%

One of the cool things about Santa Clara County is that (maybe because of Tech Sector genius in Silicon Valley) we have a possibly updated precinct map!

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CA/Santa_Clara/101316/web.241347/#/detail/1

Here is a screenshot from the Santa Clara official election site, which I assume is current.



Even without delving into the individual precinct level detail at this point, it appears, that not only did Sanders win heavily Latino precincts of San Jose, but additionally appears to have won overwhelmingly Asian-American precincts in places like Cupertino & Milipitas...

Sunnyvale and Santa Clara are a bit more mixed in POP but again have an extremely high Asian-American Community, with Santa Clara obviously for the sake of everyone who has never spent time in the South Bay being part of the historic Korean-American Community....

Saratoga which is in the SW corner of Santa Clara County has an average House cost of some $ 4 Million, which also happens to be heavily Asian-American....

There appear to be some other heavily Asian-American precincts which voted Biden, but this is just an initial review and not a final thesis...

Bottom line these will be some interesting DEM PRIM results to data-mine at a precinct level down the line....

We see that giant wave of Biden Aqua flowing up towards the Peninsula, but also there are many wealthy Anglos in those areas as well, so

[/quote]