Super Tuesday Results Thread

[NOVA Green]

We are now starting to see more results roll in from SoCal, including places which previously had not reported much in the way of election result updates since Election Day....

My thought is that the best way of looking at the consolidation of the race is to start to "drop-off" some of the lowest reporting candidates in CA such as Pete & Amy and lump them into the "Other" category, since not only is it a more efficient use of time, but additionally as opposed to many smaller rurals in CA, there was a much higher % of voters that cast ballots either same day or late VbM as opposed to other locals.

Additionally, my thought is now to start looking at a % of TOTAL Votes cast vs the '16 DEM PRIM, especially since Trump is generally not especially popular in CA (hence 'PUB and NPP voter cross-overs not to mention AVR and Sanders CA campaign allegedly targeting NPP Voters as part of their organizing campaign)

Los Angeles County----  '16 DEM PRIM (1.435k Voters)

Los Angeles County---  '20 DEM PRIM 3/6/20 Update (1,005k Voters)---  (70% of '16 Baseline)

According to the LA County Elections Office:

"An estimated number of outstanding ballots left to be counted is 678,050.
• Conditional Voter Registration: 50,000
• Provisional ballots: 26,500
• Vote by Mail ballots*: 546,400
• Misc. ballots**: 55,150"

LA County will have an updated on Tuesday 3/10/20 where we will likely have a handle on how many actual ballots are out there....

If we look at the LA County numbers, overall of the 1.448k Total Ballots (including all Parties), 59% were Election Day Ballots.

Now, let's take a peek at the '20 DEM PRIM LA numbers:





We will see where the final ballots end up rolling down, but the trend-lines in terms of both PV and % of Vote will likely continue to trend up for both Bernie & Biden....

Here is a screenshot from the LA Times precinct Map posted 3/6/20 from Election Results from 3/4/20 LA County Numbers...

Needless to say this map will likely look much different after all of the DEM '20 Precinct results are finally counted from LA County.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/2020-california-primaries-precincts-results/

[RI]

Looks like my precinct voted solidly for Biden. Also, a lot of Jewish areas really didn't like Sanders.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like my precinct voted solidly for Biden. Also, a lot of Jewish areas really didn't like Sanders.

Well the LA Times numbers are basically ED+ 3/4 next day numbers....

Although it is difficult to see Precinct numbers for Jewish-American Voters, outside of heavily Orthodox and Ultra-Orthodox numbers, I understand the clustering of populations near the Schul's and the Synagogues, where observant Jews believe in shabbat traditions where everything shuts down when it starts to come close to Sunset on a Friday.

My older Sister is an Orthodox Jew, and still a Leftist and an activist when it comes to fundamental policy positions, living up in Seattle, WA...

It is not unusual to see even the sliver of the DEM Electorate that are Jewish-Americans, to have many different opinions regarding what needs to be done in 2020....

The "Also, a lot of Jewish areas really didn't like Sanders" is a cheap throw-away line, possibly based upon your own political paradigms....

Now, all that being said... it is absolutely insane that in the 2020 DEM PRIM, at one point we have two Jewish-American President Candidates (Bernie & Bloomberg), who essentially combined the DEM PRIM Vote to something like 50% of the Polls....

I would absolutely be delighted to see a Jewish-American be elected President of the United States of America, but personally I would take the Working-Class Immigrant against the guy that made fortunes on the Stock Market (Despite the fact that Bloomberg has certain progressive values, while at the same time continuing certain policies that made it much worse  for people of Color within the City of New York).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSnxuzDm7C0

[NOVA Green]

Orange County CA Updates:

2016: 330.6k Votes

2020: 3/7/20 Updates---   294.1k Votes (89% of '16 PRIM Voters)





We will see where this ends up, but again it looks like late VbM is favoring Biden.... still we saw the '20 numbers when it came to Provisional Ballots...

Entirely plausible we are seeing massive cross-voting from OC voters in the DEM PRIM that aren't big Trump fans, that want a winning horse and fear the Bernie factor losing the meager gains, because maybe he spoke truth to power, and meanwhile DEMs lose their narrow gains in $$$ 'Burb communities and possibly take some hits in US-SEN races...

CA-DEM voters are a bit tactical, and we can't take the '20 DEM PRIM results in face value, especially in one of the largest Metro Areas, where <45+ Years are swinging not only heavily DEM, but additionally towards Progressive New Deal style economic policies from the Bernie campaign...

Precinct numbers from OC (3/4/20) Map included...



Total collapse among the "Bernie Bros" of the Beach Towns of SoCal...

Sorry all you bloody wankers who claim that the Sanders movement was all about White Liberal Wealthy College Boys...

Doesn't appear the numbers are playing that way when we look at election results in places like Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, and all of your wealthy playgrounds, while meanwhile working-class Californians live much more inland, where Anaheim, Santa Ana & Irvine .

OC numbers will likely swing even more heavily Bernie once the Provo ballots come in...

Seem to recall that Bernie did pretty well against HRC in '16 in some the "White Boys & Girls" Wealthy "Trust fund Baby" Surfer compounds along the Beach, and now those same Wealthy Atlas Posters (Sorry--- mis-spoke) went an entire different direction...

Now again prescient observers might be asking, what is going on in "Little Hanoi" in the streets of OC?

Anybody got precinct level results from the EV results from Cali, please post....

IDK... in Oregon as a Gen X-er was rolling with skateboards on a Half-Ramp back in the late '80s...went to High School with many Friends who were refugees from Vietnam.

Easy to talk about voters, but from Gen-Xer  background with Vietnamese-American friends from Elementary School in small town Oregon, to my late teens Philly & Houston, drifted down to NorCal in the early 2010s, and then roll in Metro H-Town by the time we hit 2013 and not only are a ton of workers at the Factory Vietamese-American, but they are the largest % of Asian-Americans when if comes to the Factory-Floor, where we had three large HUGE MFG Facilities...

Sorry-- getting a bit OT, but hell everything changed in Metro LA after the Upper Uprising of '92.

LA County goes from a 53-47 Bush Sr to something else....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxoD9zWY9Rg

[Sbane]

Bernie did extremely well in college precincts getting 70-80% on average. A couple precincts even cracked 90% at UC San Diego.

[NOVA Green]

Let's hit a few Counties in the Inland Empire:

Riverside County: (200.6k DEM Votes '16)

(56-43 HRC)

Riverside County: (200.6k DEM Total Votes '16)

2020 ED:             (128.6 DEM Votes '20)

Bernie:          (30.9%)
Biden:           (25.9%)
Bloomberg     (15.4%)
Warren:         (8.1%)
Others:          (19.8%)

2020:  3/6/20 Updates   (156.9 DEM Votes '20)    --- (78% of the '16 DEM PRIM Electorate)....

2020 3/6/20   (156,907 DEM Votes '20)

Bernie:          (30.9%)
Biden:           (28.1%)
Bloomberg     (14.9%)
Warren:         (8.1%)
Others:          (18.0%)

According to Riverside County there are an estimated 81k VbM and 50k Provisional Ballots yet to be counted....

[Landslide Lyndon]

Not sure this is the best place to post it but since we are talking psephology.

[RI]

Looks like my precinct voted solidly for Biden. Also, a lot of Jewish areas really didn't like Sanders.

Well the LA Times numbers are basically ED+ 3/4 next day numbers....

Although it is difficult to see Precinct numbers for Jewish-American Voters, outside of heavily Orthodox and Ultra-Orthodox numbers, I understand the clustering of populations near the Schul's and the Synagogues, where observant Jews believe in shabbat traditions where everything shuts down when it starts to come close to Sunset on a Friday.

My older Sister is an Orthodox Jew, and still a Leftist and an activist when it comes to fundamental policy positions, living up in Seattle, WA...

It is not unusual to see even the sliver of the DEM Electorate that are Jewish-Americans, to have many different opinions regarding what needs to be done in 2020....

The "Also, a lot of Jewish areas really didn't like Sanders" is a cheap throw-away line, possibly based upon your own political paradigms....

I'm not following. Places like Sherman Oaks, Encino, Tarzana, Brentwood, Beverly Hills, parts of West Hollywood, non-student parts of Westwood, etc. are all very Jewish (plurality or majority in many areas, although more Reform than Orthodox), and the vast majority of precincts in these neighborhoods went for Biden or Bloomberg, with the other usually number two.

Now, the highly Orthodox parts of Pico-Robertson went more for Sanders, although not by huge margins. It's possible there's a denominational divide there or perhaps an age divide.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1237101140606464001?s=20

That's Anna Eshoo's district, which includes the cities of Redwood City, Sunnyvale, Mountain View, and Palo Alto, as well as part of San Jose

[Kamala's side hoe]

Orange County CA Updates:

Precinct numbers from OC (3/4/20) Map included...



Total collapse among the "Bernie Bros" of the Beach Towns of SoCal...

Sorry all you bloody wankers who claim that the Sanders movement was all about White Liberal Wealthy College Boys...

Doesn't appear the numbers are playing that way when we look at election results in places like Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, and all of your wealthy playgrounds, while meanwhile working-class Californians live much more inland, where Anaheim, Santa Ana & Irvine .

OC numbers will likely swing even more heavily Bernie once the Provo ballots come in...

Seem to recall that Bernie did pretty well against HRC in '16 in some the "White Boys & Girls" Wealthy "Trust fund Baby" Surfer compounds along the Beach, and now those same Wealthy Atlas Posters (Sorry--- mis-spoke) went an entire different direction...

Now again prescient observers might be asking, what is going on in "Little Hanoi Saigon" in the streets of OC?

Younger, native-born Viet Americans are fairly liberal, and CA has a high COL.

I'm sure someone has pointed this out already, but perhaps the highlight of the night for me is Sanders winning Orange County, and by so much. So much for this county flipping back in 2020.

#OrangeCoLovesSocialism

I'm very curious to the precinct map in OC, especially how the Vietnamese areas are voting.

If I had to bet I'd say Sanders or Biden. For some reason I don't think Bloomberg would appeal to the older, anti-Sanders Viets.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Anywhere I can find CD breakdowns for Texas and Massachusetts?

[2016]

Waiting from LA County. They haven't updated since Friday.

[n1240]

Waiting from LA County. They haven't updated since Friday.

They're only updating Tuesdays/Fridays until they complete

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

According to JMC, turnout so far is outpacing 2008 and 2016... and with still a couple million left to count from Super Tuesday.

[catographer]

According to JMC, turnout so far is outpacing 2008 and 2016... and with still a couple million left to count from Super Tuesday.

I need to hear turnout numbers by % of registered voters so we can actually compare to pay years and adjust for pop growth.

[NOVA Green]

Now that we're finally to get closer to the California end-game, I'm getting rid of the traditional manual data entry of results from anybody other than Sanders-Biden-Warren-Bloomberg, and instead opting for more a visual style.

I am still tracking these numbers, since they were especially significant in heavily White Rural parts of Northern California as a huge % of the EV.

Also, I will attempt again to use a baseline of '16 DEM PRIM numbers (now that quite a few of the small rurals are close to reporting) recognizing that we still don't know exactly how many votes are out there....

Even if we track the CA "Provisional" and "Conditional Provisional" these are not set numbers and what I learned in '16 is that larger Counties use these as place-holders, and we likely won't have a better idea of what is actually out there in some places until close to the end of this week.

All that being said:

Bay Area:

Alameda County:

2016: 320k DEM PRIM VOTES
2020: 318k DEM PRIM VOTES   (99% of '16 DEM PRIM Votes)

The 3/4/20 update from Alameda County includes an *estimated* 250k* votes outstanding... but as of yet we don't have an update.... maybe I'm missing something on the County website?

Alameda Raw Vote Numbers 3/9/20:





So starting to look in Alameda, at least Bernie is pulling away from Biden.

MARIN COUNTY:

2016: 76.8k DEM PRIM VOTES
2020: 65.7k  DEM PRIM VOTES   (86% of '16 DEM PRIM Votes)

Marin County website has an estimated 25k Votes yet to be counted, and the CA website updated 3/6 has an estimated 34k Votes yet to be counted.





Although I would shocked if Sanders were to win Marin County, I would not be surprised to see both Warren & Sanders start to gain on Biden as some of the late vote starts to hit....

Now, let's shift slightly North to the "Wine Caves", which are after all part of the extended Bay Area, let's light up in Sonoma County to see what is rolling in places like Santa Rosa & Petaluma....   (Fond memories of both these towns over the decades)..

SONOMA COUNTY:

2016 DEM PRIM: 227.6k Votes
2020 DEM PRIM:  74.5k Votes     (32.7% of '16 DEM PRIM Numbers).

Estimated 77k Votes outstanding according to the the Cali Update from 3/4 post ED, but naturally we don't have any official updates, unless there is something I am missing on the Sonoma County website?

Looks to me like the County hasn't updated any kind of numbers, but unless somebody who is eagle-eyed can spot it we got to start what looks like extremely early election returns from Sonoma....





Gotta take a smoke break before posting more updates from the CA-DEM PRIM...

[NOVA Green]

Let's hit a few other places within the larger Bay Area before we jump on the highway to elsewhere...

Latest results from SF County, which was essentially a bell-weather County in terms of the '16 DEM PRIM results:

2016: TOTAL DEM PRIM:   217k Votes
2020 (3/9)                      238k Votes     (+110% of DEM '16 PRIM results!!!)

According to the CA SoS, there are tons of uncounted DEM ballots in SF, but according to the County Election website:

"The estimated total number of remaining ballots to process is 21,500, which consists of approximately 500 vote-by-mail ballots and 21,000 provisional and conditional voter registration ballots".

Still, here are the official voting numbers as of today...

   



We can expect that most likely late-breaking ballots will skew heavily Sanders...

Santa Clara County:

2016: TOTAL DEM PRIM:   277.5k Votes
2020 (3/9)                      271.5 Votes     (+98% of DEM '16 PRIM results)

Santa Clara County is estimating an additional 91k TV according to the CA SoS, but we really don't have a good number yet even in one of the most efficient election counting centers in Cali...

Naturally, I am extremely interested to see how the final results roll out, considering it was one of HRC's best Counties in CA in '16, and early results appeared to indicate Sanders winning heavily Asian-American precincts from Cupertino to Milipitas...

[Helsinkian]

So, when Iowa took three days to count their votes, that was a scandal, but when California takes a week to get just 78% counted, that's fine by everyone?

[Badger]

So, when Iowa took three days to count their votes, that was a scandal, but when California takes a week to get just 78% counted, that's fine by everyone?

Of course. California's slow count is done by design with a vote-by-mail system that encourages Mass participation and ease of voting. Delays with the caucuses, which took more than 3 days incidentally, were the result of pure clusterfucxs and disorganization.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Can we get this thread to 100 pages?

[Tender Branson]

So, when Iowa took three days to count their votes, that was a scandal, but when California takes a week to get just 78% counted, that's fine by everyone?

IA was a total joke.

CAs 5-week vote counting process is set by law.

[The Free North]

The voting process in California is a national embarrassment. Virginia figured it out in 2 hours. Come up with a process than fairly enfranchises everyone and reports the numbers before the season changes.

[Tintrlvr]

The voting process in California is a national embarrassment. Virginia figured it out in 2 hours. Come up with a process than fairly enfranchises everyone and reports the numbers before the season changes.

I'm okay with the system of allowing ballots to be postmarked on election day, which would inevitably result in counting not being done for a week or so as ballots arrive, but it is truly absurd that California always takes months to finish counting. There's no excuse for that.

[Holmes]

The voting process in California is a national embarrassment. Virginia figured it out in 2 hours. Come up with a process than fairly enfranchises everyone and reports the numbers before the season changes.

I'm sorry you hate a system that allows millions of people to vote early by mail and takes some time for the ballots to come in and be counted. The fact that you think California's voting system is disenfranchising.... embarassing.

[Calthrina950]

The voting process in California is a national embarrassment. Virginia figured it out in 2 hours. Come up with a process than fairly enfranchises everyone and reports the numbers before the season changes.

I'm sorry you hate a system that allows millions of people to vote early by mail and takes some time for the ballots to come in and be counted. The fact that you think California's voting system is disenfranchising.... embarrassing.

But it shouldn't take months for the results to be completely processed. I think it is very possible, and fair, to devise a system that allows for people to vote, but ensures that the results are counted without considerable delay, and so as to provide certainty to those who await them.