Super Tuesday Results Thread

[Matty]

Biden was obviously going to win late deciders.

Yep, if anything that Bloomberg number should concern him

[Non Swing Voter]

MSNBC had an exit poll showing that nationally late deciders were like 19% (last few days) and about 30% (last week) or something like that.

[Eraserhead]

TX: 44 White, 32 hispanic, 20 AA.
MN: 87 White, 5 AA, 4 Hispanic

TX also has a good chunk of moderate/conservatives than MN, but that's because of how minorities park themselves in the Democratic party regardless of beliefs. Sanders did will with NV conservatives/moderates because of the Latino vote.

That's the kind of hispanic turnout we want to have a shot in Texas.

It's the same as 2016. Black and White % are both up 1.

Exactly. I was worried it'd be lower.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Virginia is such an FF state!

[Gass3268]

TX: 44 White, 32 hispanic, 20 AA.
MN: 87 White, 5 AA, 4 Hispanic

TX also has a good chunk of moderate/conservatives than MN, but that's because of how minorities park themselves in the Democratic party regardless of beliefs. Sanders did will with NV conservatives/moderates because of the Latino vote.

That's the kind of hispanic turnout we want to have a shot in Texas.

It's the same as 2016. Black and White % are both up 1.

Exactly. I was worried it'd be lower.

Ah, I assumed the number would be higher and the black number lower.

[Horatii]

All I need is Bloomberg to win one state to satisfy my desire for chaos.

[Oryxslayer]

Late deciders in Texas:

https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1234980185541238784

That Bloomberg number is surprising - and I wonder what the time window was for "late deciders".

Yeah, I would say that if anything these two TX polling points look like the state is going to be tight as expected. Biden's not sweeping late deciders, but how big is the window? Theres a large Hispanic vote that hasn't dropped off, but how much will Bernie dominate that vote? The white vote is large, but how much of that is Austin?

[swf541]

Reminder that Texas had extremely heavy early voting

[Eraserhead]

All I need is Bloomberg to win one state to satisfy my desire for chaos.

I can't see it happening.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Just got back from voting in Texas, anecdotal evidence and talking to poll workers turnout seems huge — line was out the door and all the way down the block, but moving fast.

[fridgeking]

All I need is Bloomberg to win one state to satisfy my desire for chaos.

I can't see it happening.

The only state I can see him coming close is Arkansas, but I can't see him winning it.

[Eraserhead]

TX: 44 White, 32 hispanic, 20 AA.
MN: 87 White, 5 AA, 4 Hispanic

TX also has a good chunk of moderate/conservatives than MN, but that's because of how minorities park themselves in the Democratic party regardless of beliefs. Sanders did will with NV conservatives/moderates because of the Latino vote.

That's the kind of hispanic turnout we want to have a shot in Texas.

It's the same as 2016. Black and White % are both up 1.

Exactly. I was worried it'd be lower.

Ah, I assumed the number would be higher and the black number lower.

Well, the numbers will probably change some as the night goes on but it basically looks the racial composition will be very similar to 2016. I'll take it.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

So much overreaction to the Texas polls

[swf541]

TX: 44 White, 32 hispanic, 20 AA.
MN: 87 White, 5 AA, 4 Hispanic

TX also has a good chunk of moderate/conservatives than MN, but that's because of how minorities park themselves in the Democratic party regardless of beliefs. Sanders did will with NV conservatives/moderates because of the Latino vote.

That's the kind of hispanic turnout we want to have a shot in Texas.

It's the same as 2016. Black and White % are both up 1.

Exactly. I was worried it'd be lower.

Ah, I assumed the number would be higher and the black number lower.

Well, the numbers will probably change some as the night goes on but it basically looks the racial composition will be very similar to 2016. I'll take it.

May I ask why we are all ignoring the early vote in Texas?

From what I had heard hadnt early voting surpassed 2016 total of the entire texas dem primary?

[Gass3268]

TX: 44 White, 32 hispanic, 20 AA.
MN: 87 White, 5 AA, 4 Hispanic

TX also has a good chunk of moderate/conservatives than MN, but that's because of how minorities park themselves in the Democratic party regardless of beliefs. Sanders did will with NV conservatives/moderates because of the Latino vote.

That's the kind of hispanic turnout we want to have a shot in Texas.

It's the same as 2016. Black and White % are both up 1.

Exactly. I was worried it'd be lower.

Ah, I assumed the number would be higher and the black number lower.

Well, the numbers will probably change some as the night goes on but it basically looks the racial composition will be very similar to 2016. I'll take it.

May I ask why we are all ignoring the early vote in Texas?

From what I had heard hadnt early voting surpassed 2016 total of the entire texas dem primary?

This would include the early vote. The first waves of exit poll include the early vote. It's why we have Colorado numbers.

[Non Swing Voter]

Virginia is such an FF state!

?

[swf541]

TX: 44 White, 32 hispanic, 20 AA.
MN: 87 White, 5 AA, 4 Hispanic

TX also has a good chunk of moderate/conservatives than MN, but that's because of how minorities park themselves in the Democratic party regardless of beliefs. Sanders did will with NV conservatives/moderates because of the Latino vote.

That's the kind of hispanic turnout we want to have a shot in Texas.

It's the same as 2016. Black and White % are both up 1.

Exactly. I was worried it'd be lower.

Ah, I assumed the number would be higher and the black number lower.

Well, the numbers will probably change some as the night goes on but it basically looks the racial composition will be very similar to 2016. I'll take it.

May I ask why we are all ignoring the early vote in Texas?

From what I had heard hadnt early voting surpassed 2016 total of the entire texas dem primary?

This would include the early vote. The first waves of exit poll include the early vote. It's why we have Colorado numbers.

How are we getting exit data from early votes?

[Gass3268]

TX: 44 White, 32 hispanic, 20 AA.
MN: 87 White, 5 AA, 4 Hispanic

TX also has a good chunk of moderate/conservatives than MN, but that's because of how minorities park themselves in the Democratic party regardless of beliefs. Sanders did will with NV conservatives/moderates because of the Latino vote.

That's the kind of hispanic turnout we want to have a shot in Texas.

It's the same as 2016. Black and White % are both up 1.

Exactly. I was worried it'd be lower.

Ah, I assumed the number would be higher and the black number lower.

Well, the numbers will probably change some as the night goes on but it basically looks the racial composition will be very similar to 2016. I'll take it.

May I ask why we are all ignoring the early vote in Texas?

From what I had heard hadnt early voting surpassed 2016 total of the entire texas dem primary?

This would include the early vote. The first waves of exit poll include the early vote. It's why we have Colorado numbers.

How are we getting exit data from early votes?

They call people and ask if they have early voted.

[Matty]

Can someone explain to me how people who vote early are included in exit polls?

How can you interview someone who mails a ballot

[swf541]

TX: 44 White, 32 hispanic, 20 AA.
MN: 87 White, 5 AA, 4 Hispanic

TX also has a good chunk of moderate/conservatives than MN, but that's because of how minorities park themselves in the Democratic party regardless of beliefs. Sanders did will with NV conservatives/moderates because of the Latino vote.

That's the kind of hispanic turnout we want to have a shot in Texas.

It's the same as 2016. Black and White % are both up 1.

Exactly. I was worried it'd be lower.

Ah, I assumed the number would be higher and the black number lower.

Well, the numbers will probably change some as the night goes on but it basically looks the racial composition will be very similar to 2016. I'll take it.

May I ask why we are all ignoring the early vote in Texas?

From what I had heard hadnt early voting surpassed 2016 total of the entire texas dem primary?

This would include the early vote. The first waves of exit poll include the early vote. It's why we have Colorado numbers.

How are we getting exit data from early votes?

They call people and ask if they have early voted.

Didnt know that, well thats interesting ty

[Non Swing Voter]

The fact that turnout is so massive given the largely uninspiring candidates tells me that there is still seething anger for Trump.  This is not a good sign for Republicans in 2020 IMO.

[Oryxslayer]

TX: 44 White, 32 hispanic, 20 AA.
MN: 87 White, 5 AA, 4 Hispanic

TX also has a good chunk of moderate/conservatives than MN, but that's because of how minorities park themselves in the Democratic party regardless of beliefs. Sanders did will with NV conservatives/moderates because of the Latino vote.

That's the kind of hispanic turnout we want to have a shot in Texas.

It's the same as 2016. Black and White % are both up 1.

Exactly. I was worried it'd be lower.

Ah, I assumed the number would be higher and the black number lower.

Well, the numbers will probably change some as the night goes on but it basically looks the racial composition will be very similar to 2016. I'll take it.

May I ask why we are all ignoring the early vote in Texas?

From what I had heard hadnt early voting surpassed 2016 total of the entire texas dem primary?

This would include the early vote. The first waves of exit poll include the early vote. It's why we have Colorado numbers.

How are we getting exit data from early votes?

You do a large traditional poll but add a filter question 'have you voted yet?'

[Non Swing Voter]

Can someone explain to me how people who vote early are included in exit polls?

How can you interview someone who mails a ballot

they call them and ask if they voted.

[Bidenworth2020]

Can someone explain to me how people who vote early are included in exit polls?

How can you interview someone who mails a ballot

they call them and ask if they voted.

This is part of why the "Biden will not turn out the base" narrative never convinced me.

[W]

Hopping on for the night! Looking forward to this, and plan to stay up until American Samoa is called.