Super Tuesday Results Thread

[NOVA Green]

Fresno County--- 3/18 Update FINAL

2016 GE:    287k Votes (49-43 HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  81.1k Votes (56-43 HRC)
2020 DEM PRIM (3/18):  89.2k Votes (110% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

Sanders:       36.2%
Biden:           28.0%
Bloomberg:    13.0%
Warren:          8.4%
Others:         14.4%

So it appears that Fresno County is done counting ballots pending statewide certification.



As I posted after the 3/13 results:
Fresno County looks like it is most likely done, and the 3/11 > 3/13 results indicate this is virtually the end of the road in terms of DEM margins here, with maybe a +0.1% to 0.2% shift when it comes to Biden/Bernie

Unfortunately we do not have a precinct map or data available that I have been able to locate yet...

Fresno County is 52% Latino, 31% Anglo, 10% Asian-American, and 5% African-American.

It is a relatively working class county with an MHI of $46k/Yr with 300k (33% of the population) under the age of 18...

[Tender Branson]

UT has now finished counting:

https://electionresults.utah.gov/elections/ccr

CO is almost done, most counties have certified.

CA has some 300.000 ballots left to count.

[Coastal Elitist]

Okay--- so for anybody curious here is a map that I made which shows what I believe to be all counties that are either fully counted, or those with <100 TOTAL ballots remaining to be counted as of 03_20,

DARK GRAY=Counties with 0 ballots remaining to be counted
LIGHT GRAY= Counties with either less than 100 listed on State or County websites, have submitted their "final results", or in the case of San Francisco are clearly done counting, but just haven't bothered to upload their ballots remaining reports to the State of California.

That being said, we are also starting to get into the zone, where some huge Counties such as Orange & Santa Clara appear to virtually complete with maybe only a few hundred DEM votes yet to trickle through the system.

Some of the rurals not colored are likely close to completion, but we don't have clear visibility on what is outstanding.

Looks like we still have a chunk of ballots floating around in Humboldt, Mendocino, & Sonoma, which should all be relatively Sanders friendly.

Some votes still out in the Sacramento & Placer Counties (Both of which were more Biden friendly than Statewide), so we will see how it progresses there.

Got some spare change out in college places like Yolo, Santa Cruz, & Butte Counties, which should skew heavily Sanders with Warren getting a decent cut.

Bay Area is mostly done with about 10k Provisionals out in Contra Costa (Narrow Biden County), about 6k in Marin (Biden Country), San Mateo (Narrow Sanders), so overall would imagine the Provisional Breakdown won't be as heavily Sanders % wise as we have seen elsewhere...

Probably another 120k DEM ballots out of SoCal, with Los Angeles being the bulk, most of the rest San Diego,Riverside, with a smattering from Ventura and San Bernadino.

Looks like there is still some change out on the Central Coast, but there's a bit of a gap with the Monterey County numbers and haven't crunched the math since the latest SLO and Santa Barbara County updates.

Another 10k Conditional votes left out in Kern County, as well as a small number in a few other counties in the Central Valley.

 

Just to let you know OC finished counting: https://www.ocvote.com/results/left-to-count/total-ballots-left-to-count/

[NOVA Green]

Okay--- so for anybody curious here is a map that I made which shows what I believe to be all counties that are either fully counted, or those with <100 TOTAL ballots remaining to be counted as of 03_20,

DARK GRAY=Counties with 0 ballots remaining to be counted
LIGHT GRAY= Counties with either less than 100 listed on State or County websites, have submitted their "final results", or in the case of San Francisco are clearly done counting, but just haven't bothered to upload their ballots remaining reports to the State of California.

That being said, we are also starting to get into the zone, where some huge Counties such as Orange & Santa Clara appear to virtually complete with maybe only a few hundred DEM votes yet to trickle through the system.

Some of the rurals not colored are likely close to completion, but we don't have clear visibility on what is outstanding.

Looks like we still have a chunk of ballots floating around in Humboldt, Mendocino, & Sonoma, which should all be relatively Sanders friendly.

Some votes still out in the Sacramento & Placer Counties (Both of which were more Biden friendly than Statewide), so we will see how it progresses there.

Got some spare change out in college places like Yolo, Santa Cruz, & Butte Counties, which should skew heavily Sanders with Warren getting a decent cut.

Bay Area is mostly done with about 10k Provisionals out in Contra Costa (Narrow Biden County), about 6k in Marin (Biden Country), San Mateo (Narrow Sanders), so overall would imagine the Provisional Breakdown won't be as heavily Sanders % wise as we have seen elsewhere...

Probably another 120k DEM ballots out of SoCal, with Los Angeles being the bulk, most of the rest San Diego,Riverside, with a smattering from Ventura and San Bernadino.

Looks like there is still some change out on the Central Coast, but there's a bit of a gap with the Monterey County numbers and haven't crunched the math since the latest SLO and Santa Barbara County updates.

Another 10k Conditional votes left out in Kern County, as well as a small number in a few other counties in the Central Valley.

 

Just to let you know OC finished counting: https://www.ocvote.com/results/left-to-count/total-ballots-left-to-count/

Figured it was going to hit any day now... meanwhile how to look at the precinct results from OC... 

https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/PRI2020/Run_25/sov.pdf

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm quite surprised OC voted for Bernie. It's Biden's base: moderate white suburbanites who are new to the Democratic Party.

[Holmes]

I'm quite surprised OC voted for Bernie. It's Biden's base: moderate white suburbanites who are new to the Democratic Party.

It also has a large latino and asian demographic, and has a lot of youngs as well.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm quite surprised OC voted for Bernie. It's Biden's base: moderate white suburbanites who are new to the Democratic Party.

Plenty of those, but they are outnumbered by Hispanics and Asians demographically in the democratic primary.

[RI]

UT has now finished counting:

https://electionresults.utah.gov/elections/ccr

CO is almost done, most counties have certified.

CA has some 300.000 ballots left to count.

Millard County ending in a tie is very aesthetically unpleasing. :/

[lfromnj]

Also the latest ballots skewed towards Sanders rather than Biden as I guessed that progressive voters give less sh**ts and vote at the last minute.

[NOVA Green]

Now that California is starting to wrap up ballot counting, I decided go through and review a few areas, that has previously been neglected to take a look at what we are seeing in the 2020 CA DEM PRIM.

California- 1st Congressional District.



2016 DEM PRIM TOTAL VOTES=                  92,034
2020 DEM PRIM TOTAL VOTES= 3/20-         88,511     (96.2% of 2016 DEM PRIM TOTAL)

2016:

Sanders:      58.3%
HRC :          40.2%

2020: (3/20)

Sanders:     33.3%
Biden:         23.9%
Warren:       13.0%
Bloomberg:  10.4%
Others:        19.4%    (Buttigieg- 7.6%, Amy/Steyer- 4.6% each)

Areas with significant votes outstanding, Butte County (5.2k TOT Votes and roughly 100 TOT votes from Siskiyou, and likely a smattering from the Placer County portion of the District).

One would imagine remaining votes out of Butte County will likely heavily favor Sanders, and to some extent Warren because of Chico (College Town) votes.

Let's look at what has been completed thus far:

Modoc County

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modoc_County,_California

2016 GE:    3,843 Votes (70% Trump- 22% HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  665 Votes (52.5% Sanders -   42.3% HRC)       +10.2% Sanders
2020 DEM PRIM (Unofficial Final):  711 Votes (107% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

Sanders:       29.4%
Biden:           24.1%
Warren:         10.0%
Bloomberg:     9.3%
Others:          27.2%       (Buttigieg- 5.7%, Amy 4.6%, Steyer 7.0%, Write-Ins 6.6% (Presumably majority Trump Write-Ins).

Although we don't have a good handle on the composition of the Democratic voting base within Modoc County, my assumption would be that the vast majority of DEM PRIM voters are Latino, Native-American, or Anglo State & Federal Government workers in a County where the vast majority of the land is owned by the State & Federal Gvt, and County jobs such as Law Enforcement & Teachers compose of a workforce which is at least 30% Gvt Jobs.

We do have precinct level data available, as well as precinct maps:

https://docs.google.com/a/co.modoc.ca.us/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=Y28ubW9kb2MuY2EudXN8Y291bnR5LW9mLW1vZG9jfGd4OjE1ZDhlODYwNWRjNGNiNGI

https://docs.google.com/a/co.modoc.ca.us/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=Y28ubW9kb2MuY2EudXN8Y291bnR5LW9mLW1vZG9jfGd4OmIxNDBhZjY5OWYzYTA0Yw

I took a brief glance around the data by precinct to see relative areas of support for Sanders & Biden, but couldn't see any immediate patterns other than Sanders possibly performing a bit stronger in the more heavily Latino NW part of the County, and Biden possibly doing a bit better in the more Native American & White portions of the County.

Lassen County

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lassen_County,_California

2016 GE:            10,699  Votes (71% Trump- 21% HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:   1,905 Votes (53.7% Sanders -   42.6% HRC)       +11.1% Sanders
2020 DEM PRIM (Unofficial Final):  1,711 Votes (89% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

Sanders:        25.2%
Biden:            28.2%
Warren:          11.2%
Bloomberg:      7.9%
Others:           27.5%       (Buttigieg- 6.5%, Amy 4.7%, Steyer 7.5%, Write-Ins 4.6% (Presumably majority Trump Write-Ins).

Lassen County shares both similarities and differences with Modoc County.

Lassen has a much higher % of Blacks and Latinos, where much of the employment is now based on (2) State and (1) Federal Correctional Facilities.

Almost 50% of the County Working Population is employed by Federal, State, County, or local Government agencies.

Although I haven't yet found a precinct County map, at least we have precinct level results reported for what is a County where pretty much all of the votes have been counted and are pending statewide certification.

http://www.lassencounty.org/sites/default/files/departments/clerk_of_the_board_of_supervisors/GEMS%20SOVC%20REPORT%20UNOFFICIAL%20FINAL.pdf


Plumas County

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plumas_County,_California

2016 GE:              9,850 Votes (55% Trump- 35% HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:   2,748 Votes (53.7% Sanders - 44.1% HRC)       +9.4% Sanders
2020 DEM PRIM (Unofficial Final):  2,961 Votes (108% of 2016 DEM PRIM)


Sanders:         26.7%
Biden:             20.3%
Warren:           13.3%
Bloomberg:      13.0%
Others:            26.7%       (Buttigieg- 11.7%, Amy 6.6%, Steyer 5.6%, Write-Ins ()

Plumas skews heavily older with 45% of the entire population 55+ Yrs. and is essentially a county that consists heavily of White Retirees, with the work-force a mixture of Health Care workers, Retail, with some seasonal tourism thrown in, not to mention a bit of construction as wealthy retirees build their homes out in the Mountain Regions of the Sierra Nevada Coast Range.

Haven't been able to smoke out any precinct results yet, but maybe one of y'all is ahead of the curve.

There *might* be a total of (32) TOTAL ballots outstanding, but w/o the time stamp on the ballot report vs the original post, call me skeptical there are any more votes out there.

Sierra County

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sierra_County,_California

2016 GE:              1,858 Votes (56% Trump- 33% HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:      527 Votes (56.4% Sanders - 42.5% HRC)       +13.9% Sanders
2020 DEM PRIM (Unofficial Final):  484 Votes (92% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

Sanders:         26.9%
Biden:             20.9%
Warren:           14.5%
Bloomberg:      12.2%
Others:            25.6%       (Buttigieg- 9.7%, Amy 6.8%, Steyer 5.8%, Write-Ins ()

Again not yet seeing any precinct level data for one of the smaller rurals within CD-01.

Now that we've closed up some of the smaller rurals, time to start moving into the DEM PRIM Breadbaskets within CD-01, considering the counties I covered only accounted for 6.3% of the 2016 DEM PRIM Vote within the District....

Nevada County----  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada_County,_California

2016 GE:                  54,935 Votes (47% HRC- 43% Trump)
2016 DEM PRIM:       22,150 Votes (62.4% Sanders - 36.9% HRC)       +25.5% Sanders
2020 DEM PRIM (Unofficial Final):  24,108 Votes (109% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

Sanders:         35.6%
Biden:             22.2%
Warren:           14.4%
Bloomberg:      11.4%
Others:            16.4%       (Buttigieg- 7.5%, Amy 4.9%, Steyer- 2.5%

Nevada County consisted of 21% of the entire 2016 DEM PRIM in California CD-01.

If we look at the raw 2020 DEM PRIM Votes we see the following:



Look at the % of support by Candidate we see the following:



Obviously, Sanders appears to be running into a major issue in a DEM PRIM County that was one of his best in 2016....

Over 2/3 of the Population of Nevada County lives in the region around Grass Valley in the SW part of the County...

Haven't had a chance to play around with the precinct results yet, but one could always go and grab the data via this link and plus we can download into an CSV file format!!!!

https://www.mynevadacounty.com/DocumentCenter/View/33809/Cumulative-Results-3-20-2020-09-05-44-AM

Siskiyou County----  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siskiyou_County,_California

2016 GE:                  20,493 Votes (55% Trump-  35% HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:         6,486 Votes (60% Sanders - 38% HRC)       +22% Sanders
2020 DEM PRIM (Unofficial Final):  6,074 Votes (94% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

Had it at 117 TOTAL VOTES in Siskiyou on 3/12, but can't tell if it was before or after what was the final count trying to look at timestamps. (Suspect there will be hardly any if any DEM PRIM ballots left around the joint).

3/12 Update:

Sanders:         35.1%
Biden:             22.7%
Warren:           14.2%
Bloomberg:       9.6%
Others:            16.4%       (Buttigieg- 7.1%, Amy 4.8%)

Siskyou County consisted of 7.0% of the entire 2016 DEM PRIM in California.

Siskiyou again bulges much older, Lower Middle-Class, and a bit Whiter....

Will be interesting to see how this breaks down by Precinct, but regardless again the Sanders/Warren splits create openings for others....

SHASTA COUNTY--- 18.% of 2016 DEM PRIM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shasta_County,_California

2016 GE:                  81,024 Votes (64% Trump-  28% HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:       17,212 Votes (52.4% Sanders - 45.4% HRC)       +7% Sanders
2020 DEM PRIM (3/19 TOTAL):  17,630 Votes (102% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

Looks to me like Shasta County is pretty much done counting, with an off-chance that the discrepancy between official numbers vs "final report" somehow leaves off the last of the Provisionals.

3/12 Update:

Sanders:         28.5%
Biden:             28.4%
Warren:           11.5%
Bloomberg:       9.6%
Others:            22.0%       (Buttigieg- 7.7%, Steyer 6.3%, Amy 4.8%)

Want to hit up a precinct map?

Simply go the the ENR site to see official county result maps....

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CA/Shasta/101642/web.245375/#/detail/101

Pretty cool map, so def something to check out, especially when we start to explore precincts around Redding and do some C&C vs '08 and '16 DEM PRIMs...

Tehama County---   5.6% of 2016 DEM PRIM CD-01 Vote Share

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tehama_County,_California

2016 GE:                  23.9k Votes (65% Trump-  28% HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:        5,163 Votes (51.4% Sanders - 45.9% HRC)       +5.6% Sanders
2020 DEM PRIM (3/19 TOTAL):  5,027 Votes (97% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

Looks like all of the votes are counted pending certification.

I haven't found any precinct results yet, but these should be received once the Statement of Votes cast is published.

Bulk of the vote out is in Butte County:

Estimated 5.2k TOTAL Votes....

2020 DEM PRIM Votes were 38-20-14   (Sanders-Biden-Warren) as of 3/6/20.

[NOVA Green]

Now that California is starting to wrap up ballot counting, I decided go through and review a few areas, that has previously been neglected to take a look at what we are seeing in the 2020 CA DEM PRIM.

California- 3rd Congressional District.




2016 DEM PRIM TOTAL VOTES=                  89,169
2020 DEM PRIM TOTAL VOTES= 3/20-         92,148    (103.3% of 2016 DEM PRIM TOTAL)

2016:

Sanders:      48.0%
HRC :           50.8%          +2.8% HRC

2020: (3/20)

Sanders:     32.5%
Biden:         30.3%
Bloomberg:  12.4%
Warren:       12.0%
Others:        12.8%    (Buttigieg- 4.9%, Steyer- 2.8%, Amy- 2.5%)

Let's look at what has been completed thus far:

Glenn County

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenn_County,_California

2016 GE:    9,470 Votes (61% Trump- 33% HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  1,948 Votes (51.5% Sanders -   46.8% HRC)       +4.7% Sanders
2020 DEM PRIM (Unofficial Final):  2,069 Votes (106% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

Sanders:       32.9%
Biden:           27.1%
Bloomberg:    10.9%
Warren:           9.0%
Others:          20.2%       (Buttigieg- 6.1%, Amy 2.5%, Steyer 6.8%)

Split between two Congressional Districts, the vast majority are in CD-03, where the county represented 2.0% of the CD-03 '16 DEM Vote Share during the Primary.

Although the County is only 53% White and 40% Latino, the share of the electorate, including the DEM PRIM electorate is likely significantly smaller especially when looking at the distribution of the population under the age of 18, and the 13% of the total population that are non-citizens, many of whom work in the agricultural sector.

We might get precinct level data once the Statement of Votes Cast is published, although reviewing their June 2016 Primary I saw results for practically every election, except for the Presidential Primary (Maybe I missed it somewhere.)

Colusa County

1.9% of CD-03 2016 DEM PRIM Vote Share.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colusa_County,_California

2016 GE:    6,697 Votes (53% Trump- 40% HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  1,692 Votes (49.4% HRC -   47.8% Sanders)       +1.6% HRC
2020 DEM PRIM (Official Final):  1,615 Votes (95% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

Sanders:       37.7%
Biden:           25.3%
Bloomberg:    15.0%
Warren:           7.4%
Others:          14.5%       (Buttigieg- 5.2%, Amy 1.5%, Steyer 3.5%)

Roughly 58% of the County Population is Latino, with the population aged 0-17 Years running more like 64-65%, and roughly 15% of the population are non-citizens.

Still it appears that here is an example of where Sanders support among Latinos helped somewhat offset his loss among Anglo voters between '16 and '20 in California.

Colusa does publish precinct results, although these are not yet available that I can find.

Yuba County

5.9% of CD-03 2016 DEM PRIM Vote Share.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuba_County,_California

2016 GE:    22,998 Votes (57% Trump- 34% HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  5,291 Votes (52.4% Sanders > 45.1% HRC)       +6.3% Sanders
2020 DEM PRIM (Almost Done):  5,790 Votes (109% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

There may be another ~(180) total votes outstanding.

Sanders:       35.5%
Biden:           27.3%
Bloomberg:    14.3%
Warren:           8.4%
Others:          14.5%       (Buttigieg- 4.9%, Amy 2.0%, Steyer 3.8%)

The population skews much more heavily Anglo 57%, Latinos- 27%, Asians- 7%.

Much of the population is clustered in the far SW portion of the County around Olivehurst, Linda, & Marysville which always seems a bit more like a far exurban stretch of Metro Sacramento.

There are many occupations related to sales, medical services, & hospitality as bit of a regional center. This County is also home to the Beale AFB (Pop 1k) which also plays a decent role in the Yuba County's economy.

I currently could not find any detailed precinct level breakdown, however these should be available once the Statement of Vote is published. This County might be interesting in that some of the patterns from 2016 might have significant differences from 2020 numbers.

For anybody interested, here is a link to their 2016 DEM PRIM precinct numbers.

https://www.yuba.org/Yuba%20County/Elections/Results/sovpdf/2016_Jun_SOV.pdf

Sutter County

8.6% of CD-03 2016 DEM PRIM Vote Share.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutter_County,_California

2016 GE:    33,824 Votes (54% Trump- 39% HRC)
2016 DEM PRIM:  7,632 Votes (52.7% HRC > 45.4% Sanders)       +7.3% HRC
2020 DEM PRIM (Official Final):  8,681 Votes (114% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

Sanders:       38.4%
Biden:           25.7%
Bloomberg:    14.1%
Warren:           7.6%
Others:          14.2%       (Buttigieg- 5.6%, Amy 2.1%, Steyer 2.9%)

Roughly 70% of the Population lives in Yuba City, with an additional 12% in the portion of Marysville over the Yuba County line.

Yuba City-- 45% White, 28% Latino, 19% Asian.

Overall is fairly middle class-  MHI $50.8k/Yr, tends to track overall age breakdowns fairly close to California numbers, albeit with a bit of a spike in the 0-17 age range (26% of County Pop).

The Asian-American population skews heavily Indian-American (74.5% of the County Asian-American Population).

Occupations tend to closely track CA breakdowns, with the exception of a much small proportion in MGMT and a much larger % in Farming (6.2%).

I have not been able to track down precinct data yet for Sutter County.

Will follow up shortly with numbers for the remaining counties within CD-03.

[Nova Green Locked Out]

This is NOVA GREEN and I am locked out, and a bit pissed off since it appears this is a direct result of recent changes.

I have 0% of my previous posts, and although initially I thought maybe it was on me starts to look like something big went down dave land....

[Nova Green Locked Out]

fwiw...

Here was something that I had spent an hour or so working on before y'all kicked me off Atlas....


Had to delete a few links since I now longer have privileges...

Let alone links to my own posts or galleries...


size=12pt]California- 3rd Congressional District- PART II.[/size]



2016 DEM PRIM TOTAL VOTES=                  89,169
2020 DEM PRIM TOTAL VOTES= 3/20-         92,148    (103.3% of 2016 DEM PRIM TOTAL)

2016:

Sanders:      48.0%
HRC :           50.8%          +2.8% HRC

2020: (3/20)

Sanders:     32.5%
Biden:         30.3%
Bloomberg:  12.4%
Warren:       12.0%
Others:        12.8%    (Buttigieg- 4.9%, Steyer- 2.8%, Amy- 2.5%)

Here are the remaining Counties not previously cited in Part I of my post (Solano, Yolo, Lake & Sacramento):

Solano County

39.4% of the 2016 DEM PRIM....



2016 GE:                                 168,150 Votes (61% HRC- 31% DJT)
2016 DEM PRIM:                        61,880 Votes (55.3% HRC - 43.8% Sanders)  +11.5% HRC
2020 DEM PRIM (Official Final):   68,763  Votes (111% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

Sanders:       30.1%
Biden:           34.6%
Bloomberg:    14.1%
Warren:         10.0%
Others:          11.2.%       (Buttigieg- 4.0%, Amy 2.2%, Steyer 2.8%)

So, Solano County accounts for a significant amount of the increase in DEM PRIM Votes from '16 > '20.

Part of it is likely that Solano County has a higher % of POP GROWTH, including those of voting age, than most other places within the District.

Part of it might well be that folks whom are NPP decided to vote within the DEM PRIM, including many of whom were lukewarm in the '16 DEM PRIM and turned against Trump in the GE (Including REG 'Pubs and Gary Johnson '16 GE Voters).

Solano County has a population of 430k, which in many states makes it close to having their own Congressional District.

Roughly 75% of the entire population is located within (3) Cities:

Vallejo, Fairfield, and Vacaville.

Vallejo--- Roughly 25% Anglo, 23% Latino, 22% African-American, 24% Asian-American.



MHI= $59.6k/Yr

Age--- Skews a bit older than CA at large.... 30% of the pop 55+

Ethnicity: Latinos (Much more heavily Central-American than CA as a whole)....   Asian-Americans (skew heavily Filipino-Americans roughly 83% of the Population).

Occupations: Skew heavily Health Care.

Fairfield



Roughly 33% Anglo, 29% Latino, 14% African-American, 17% Asian-American.

MHI= $69.4k/Yr

Age: Gravitates a bit younger especially in the 21-34 Age Range.

Occupations: Well considering that 13.4k people work at Travis Air Force Base....

Vacaville



Race/Ethnicity: Roughly 54% Anglo, 22% Latino, 10% African-American, 7% Asian-American.

MHI: $76.2k/Yr (!!!)

AGE: Tend to bump quite a bit older on the 40-60 Yr age range.

Meanwhile for anybody that doesn't get it, or is not as familiar with California Counties, Vacaville is also home to a large California State Prison...

Although I haven't crunched the precinct numbers yet from the City, I did pull up results from another County within California with a high % of Union Employees at state correctional facilities, and it appears that Biden might be doing a bit better than Sanders, even among a heavily Minority Prison Guard and Contractor workforce.

[Nova Green Locked Out]

Also the latest ballots skewed towards Sanders rather than Biden as I guessed that progressive voters give less sh**ts and vote at the last minute.

NOVA GREEN LOCKED OUT:

It's actually not that Crazy, but reality is that Provisional Ballots can hit early, Middle, & Late.

What happened in California is simply the reality that Younger Voters, Minority Voters, College Students, California Members of the US Military tend to have a much higher % of PROVO ballots, even if we vote early....

Provisional Ballots in California do not equal Same Day Ballots (Which might arrive well after Election Day Ballots in a VbM say-day State).

[NOVA Green]

California- 3rd Congressional District- PART II.




2016 DEM PRIM TOTAL VOTES=                  89,169
2020 DEM PRIM TOTAL VOTES= 3/20-         92,148    (103.3% of 2016 DEM PRIM TOTAL)

2016:

Sanders:      48.0%
HRC :           50.8%          +2.8% HRC

2020: (3/20)

Sanders:     32.5%
Biden:         30.3%
Bloomberg:  12.4%
Warren:       12.0%
Others:        12.8%    (Buttigieg- 4.9%, Steyer- 2.8%, Amy- 2.5%)

Here are the remaining Counties not previously cited in Part I of my post (Solano, Yolo, Lake & Sacramento):

Solano County

39.4% of the 2016 DEM PRIM....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solano_County,_California

2016 GE:                                 168,150 Votes (61% HRC- 31% DJT)
2016 DEM PRIM:                        61,880 Votes (55.3% HRC - 43.8% Sanders)  +11.5% HRC
2020 DEM PRIM (Official Final):   68,763  Votes (111% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

Sanders:       30.1%
Biden:           34.6%
Bloomberg:    14.1%
Warren:         10.0%
Others:          11.2.%       (Buttigieg- 4.0%, Amy 2.2%, Steyer 2.8%)

So, Solano County accounts for a significant amount of the increase in DEM PRIM Votes from '16 > '20.

Part of it is likely that Solano County has a higher % of POP GROWTH, including those of voting age, than most other places within the District.

Part of it might well be that folks whom are NPP decided to vote within the DEM PRIM, including many of whom were lukewarm in the '16 DEM PRIM and turned against Trump in the GE (Including REG 'Pubs and Gary Johnson '16 GE Voters).

Solano County has a population of 430k, which in many states makes it close to having their own Congressional District.

Roughly 75% of the entire population is located within (3) Cities and 96% of 2020 DEM PRIM Voters are located within (7) Cities:



Vallejo, Fairfield, and Vacaville.

Vallejo--- Roughly 25% Anglo, 23% Latino, 22% African-American, 24% Asian-American.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vallejo,_California

MHI= $59.6k/Yr

Age--- Skews a bit older than CA at large.... 30% of the pop 55+

Ethnicity: Latinos (Much more heavily Central-American than CA as a whole)....   Asian-Americans (skew heavily Filipino-Americans roughly 83% of the Population).

Occupations: Skew heavily Health Care.

Fairfield

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairfield,_California

Roughly 33% Anglo, 29% Latino, 14% African-American, 17% Asian-American.

MHI= $69.4k/Yr

Age: Gravitates a bit younger especially in the 21-34 Age Range.

Occupations: Well considering that 13.4k people work at Travis Air Force Base....

Vacaville

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacaville,_California

Race/Ethnicity: Roughly 54% Anglo, 22% Latino, 10% African-American, 7% Asian-American.

MHI: $76.2k/Yr (!!!)

AGE: Tend to bump quite a bit older on the 40-60 Yr age range.

Meanwhile for anybody that doesn't get it, or is not as familiar with California Counties, Vacaville is also home to a large California State Prison...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_State_Prison,_Solano

Although I haven't crunched the precinct numbers yet from the City, I did pull up results from another County within California with a high % of Union Employees at state correctional facilities, and it appears that Biden might be doing a bit better than Sanders, even among a heavily Minority Prison Guard and Contractor workforce.




Now Suisan City, Benicia, Dixon, & Rio Vista I haven't really look at in detail, I did attempt to pull up 2016 DEM PRIM results from Solano broken down by municipality, to see if it provided a greater understanding of what was going on, especially considering the dramatic increase in total DEM PRIM votes from '16 to '20.

So Where are there still votes remaining in CA CD-03?

Yolo County

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yolo_County,_California

2016 GE:                                   82,090 Votes (68% HRC- 26% DJT)
2016 DEM PRIM:                        36,606 Votes (51.3% Sanders - 48.2% Sanders)  +2.3% Sanders
2020 DEM PRIM (3/13):              36,864  Votes (101% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

34.0% of 2016 DEM PRIM VOTE SHARE in CD-03

Currently it appears after the 3/13 update there are a total of 8.1k ballots remaining to be counted, the vast majority of which are likely DEM PRIM ballots.



Although we really don't have precinct result maps, I would not be surprised to see Sanders benefit significantly in remaining ballots out of Davis and Woodland, as well as West Sac.

Warren should likely do all right in remaining ballots out of Davis, and Biden might pick up a few ticks in Woodland & West Sac.

Although this is a 3/6 Precinct map, check out Yolo County to see the initial returns from Yolo County...

https://www.latimes.com/projects/2020-california-primaries-precincts-results/

Lake County

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_County,_California


2016 GE:                                   24,684 Votes (47% HRC- 43% DJT)
2016 DEM PRIM:                          9,331 Votes (55.7% Sanders - 42.7% HRC)  +13.0% Sanders
2020 DEM PRIM (3/13):                  3,709  Votes (40% of 2016 DEM PRIM)

Now Lake County will not update their numbers until 3/31 or 4/1 as per a personal response I received from the Elections Department....

Note that the County is split between CD-03 and CD-05, but back in '16 there were 4,157 votes in the '16 DEM PRIM within the CD-03 portion of the County, so looking like maybe something like a 40%-60% CD-03 /CD-05 split with remaining DEM ballots???

Sacramento County

This is a relatively small sliver of votes within the district (roughly 3% of the '16 DEM PRIM numbers within the District), so depending upon where they lay and how much is outstanding, might potentially skew a bit more Sanders or a bit more Biden....

Still bottom line, outstanding votes remaining in CD-03 should not only continue to add to Sanders raw vote numbers, but additionally his % numbers within the District.

[NOVA Green]

So looks like CA-48 just flipped back to Sanders?

(Relatively wealthy predominately OC series of Beach communities).

+146 Sanders > Biden

Looking what is out there in terms of CD's, not really seeing too many potential flips either way out there.

CD-48 is currently only +397 Biden, but with only maybe 5k votes out in all of San Diego County and OC all counted, difficult to see this happening, considering the vast majority of DEM Provisional ballots will likely be located closer to the City of San Diego and surrounding 'burbs, rather than in North County.

Perhaps some outstanding Provisionals around Oceanside / Camp Pendleton area, where there are tons of young folks might give a lift but.... math wise seems a hill a bit too steep.

In theory CD-18 might be a potential flip with a chunk of votes still out from Santa Cruz County (only part of which is in the district) , plus  a pretty good chunk of votes out from San Mateo but making up a 5k vote gap at this point seems pretty unfeasible even although both Counties are DEM strongholds and there is probably something like 13k TOTAL ballots remaining.

CD-09 is a possibility + 488 Biden.

Bulk of the district is within San Joaquin County, which appears to have a decent chunk of votes outstanding (although I'm unclear to what extent the CD numbers were updated from today's PM vote dump).

Probably a smaller number of provisionals from Eastern Contra Costa County.

CD-07 is def a possibility, with a +575 Biden vote lead with maybe 10k TOTAL votes remaining in Sacramento County...

Am I missing anything?

[Frodo]

When will California finally finish counting the ballots from its primary?  Sometime in April?  May?  

[Tender Branson]

When will California finally finish counting the ballots from its primary?  Sometime in April?  May?  

By the end of next week (April 3). Results then get certified a week later (April 10).

Also: all but 5 CO counties have certified their results.

[NOVA Green]

Now that we are starting to get official Statements of Votes Cast for California, we are starting to see more real precinct data roll in.

Alameda County has now posted their official Statement of Votes which breaks down precinct level data for the County.

https://www.acvote.org/election-information/elections?id=240#

Click on Results and then "Statement of Votes Spreadsheet" and you will get a lovely set of precinct level data.

Alameda County also posts historical election data, so see below to take a look at the 2016 California Primary, where once you scroll through the DEM PRES PRIM Precinct info they summarize by City.

So I decided to spend a little bit of time to see what what was going on in 2020 and decided to start with the 4th largest City in the County and an overwhelmingly Democratic stronghold, even by California standards:

Berkeley, California

Contrary to popular preconceptions this Liberal stronghold was not overwhelmingly Sanders country in 2016 (54-45 Sanders>HRC), nor did this prove to be the case in 2020.

As I had suspected, Warren performed extremely well here, placing 2nd in the 2020 CA DEM PRIM.

Overall the City added an additional 7k DEM PRIM votes between '16 > '20 (118% over '16 DEM PRIM numbers).

Sanders lost almost 2.9k votes between '16 and '20, with Biden performing 10k votes behind HRC's raw number in '16, with Warren showing up some 15k votes....



If we look at the % numbers by Candidate, we see Sanders support dropping from 54.5% to 40.4%, Warren placing at almost 30% of the vote, and Biden limping in at 19% for a distant 3rd place....



Let's take a walk around and see where the various candidates performed best....

If we look at the area included within the RED outline, we see the heaviest Sanders precincts (60%+ of Total DEM PRIM vote).



Perhaps not surprisingly, there is a strong correlation with % of College aged folks and support for Sanders.

Here is a closer view, which shows the precinct results in the areas around the "Student Ghetto" of UC Berkeley.



Turnout perhaps not surprisingly for a heavily College Student population tended to be significantly lower in most of these precincts than in Berkeley as a whole.

Now let's shift gear for a few minutes, and take a look at how some of highest incomes precincts within Berkeley voted in the 2020 DEM PRIM.



https://statisticalatlas.com/place/California/Berkeley/Household-Income#data-map/tract

So ignore the dark red $250k/MHI, since this appears to be a small number of highly compenstated administrators at UC-Berkeley, but instead those precincts in NE Berkeley where MHI ranges from roughly $120k/Yr to $160k/Yr.

There is also a small Census tract in SE Berkeley with an MHI of ~ $140k/yr.

Perhaps not surprisingly, these same census tracts range from 70%-80% Anglo....

Warren won 21/40 precincts in Berkeley, and Biden won 3/40 precincts in Berkeley.

Biden won precincts 201000, 203200, and 205200.

201000---   (28.3% Biden- 27.4% Warren- 26.0% Sanders- 11.6% Bloomberg) Far NE Berkeley.

203200---   (33.5% Biden- 23.1% Warren- 19.3% Sanders- 13.7% Bloomberg) Far Corner of SE Berkeley)

205200---   (32.6% Biden- 24.8% Sanders- 23.0% Warren- 12.9% Bloomberg) North Corner of Berkeley, but in the NW side of the Berkeley Hills....

So at least in Berkeley, the correlation between Biden & Bloomberg votes in Upper-Income Anglo parts of the City appears clear.

The only place where Bloomberg performed within this range would be precinct:

205100 (29.6% Warren- 25.3% Biden, 22.6% Sanders, 14.0% Bloomberg)..... this is right next door to precinct 205200 within the Berkeley Hills.

So if we look at Warren support within the same region, we see her over-performing her City level numbers...



Note: In many of these cases Sanders placed 3rd behind Warren & Biden, and in others might have been a narrow 2nd behind Warren.

We see a similar pattern rolling the next wave of precincts to the South of the Hills, with Warren beating Sanders narrowly in various precincts, with Biden placing further behind...

Now because naturally there has been much discussion on Atlas regarding Sanders support among Minority Voters, this does not appear to have been a factor among a handful of precincts with a high % of African-Americans in SW Berkeley, right across the Oakland County line...

Precinct 208810, 208900, and 209000 all appear to be somewhere around 30-35 Black, right over the border from North Oakland....

These are predominately working class communities, which also include a decent population of Latinos and WWC Anglos...

208810--- (Sanders-49%, Warren 26%, Biden 18%)
208900--- (Sanders-51%, Warren 25%, Biden 15%)
209000--- (Sanders-38%, Warren 36%, Biden 21%).

This does appear to mirror at least patterns that we observed from precinct level results in San Francisco when it comes fairly heavily Black Communities (By Bay Area standards) and weak support for Biden....

Unfortunately, we don't have a good handle on Asian-American voting habits within Berkeley, for the simple reason that the population is most heavily concentrated around UC-Berkeley, of whom some are likely California students, combined with some foreign national grad students and faculty...

[Tender Branson]

When will California finally finish counting the ballots from its primary?  Sometime in April?  May?  

By the end of next week (April 3). Results then get certified a week later (April 10).

Also: all but 5 CO counties have certified their results.

CO has finished counting and certified their results:

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/100039/web.245375/#/reporting

[NOVA Green]

So now that votes are finally started to be fully counted within California, it is time to at least summarize where ballots have been counted, and what is likely outstanding.

Here is a map which summarizes what I have been able to data mine off of either State Official Election sources, or official County level sources.



Additionally, I will attempt to reconcile "official state/county" numbers with updated DEM PRIM results, which I have been tracking daily, to "smoke out" the outliers.

Dark Gray= Counties with 0 Remaining ballots remained to be counted as per State official election sources

Light Gray= Counties where there appears to be "final", or official Statement of Votes, or whom report results as having been certified.  Additionally, this will include places where there might be a handful of ballots (less than 100 total votes remaining to be counted), which is unlikely to change anything....

1.) Humboldt County---  Official sources report 4.1k ballots as of 3/20 16:29 PM PDT.

The timestamp of the county 3/20 update appears to indicate this is likely. These should be overwhelmingly Democratic Primary ballots.

2.) Mendocino County--- Official sources report 1.8k ballots as of 3/15 10:31 AM PDT.... County level numbers were updated a few hours later to report at 12:53 PM PDT.

Considering the timeline, I am assuming that it is more likely that there are 1.8k ballot outstanding in Mendocino.

3.) Butte County--- Official numbers 5.2k votes remaining. The County hasn't updated since 3/6/20. There were 31.8k total DEM ballots in '16 and right now we are only sitting on 27.3k total DEM ballots.

Butte County updated earlier today with Certified numbers.

4.) Placer County---- Official state numbers show 6.7k votes remaining as of 3/20 16:34 PM PDT....

Considering that there were 1.4k DEM ballots added on their 3/24 update, within a fairly Republican County, these numbers are likely considerably lower.

Let's call it maybe 5k total ballots outstanding max?

5.) Lake County---- this is a county which was called out a page back on the thread, where I contacted the County election result we will see all results when we see them.  (CA just extended the final canvas date to 4/24/20, so we might be waiting on final election results from CA for another Month!).

Lake County had 9.3k DEM PRIM ballots in '16, but only 3.7k DEM ballots as of their last update with an estimated 9.8k TOTAL ballots remaining (many of which will not be DEM ballots, and some will be rejected, but at min I would suspect we might have another 4-5k DEM ballots outstanding.

6.) Yolo County-

Had 36.6k DEM PRIM ballots in '16, and as of their last update on 3/13 showed 36.9k DEM ballots. Their unprocessed ballot update to the State of CA on 3/13 at 9:43 AM PDT showed an estimated 8k TOTAL ballots remaining.

The County numbers updated on 3/13 at 4:12 PM PDT also lists the 8k TOTAL ballots outstanding...

So overall if every single one of these were valid DEM ballots this would be a 122% increase from 2016...

Naturally this will not be the case, even in a heavily DEM county, but still considering the overall DEM PRIM '16>'20 % changes we have seen, it looks like there are still about 8k TOT ballots out in Yolo.

7.) Sonoma County-

Sonoma updated their County numbers on 3/23 as well as their unprocessed ballot numbers.

Looks like 6.9k TOT ballots remaining is accurate.

8.) Marin County-   

Marin just performed a vote dump Yesterday evening and unprocessed ballot report shows 770 TOTAL, and their county website post dump indicates that there could be 1k ballots, split between voters that need to fix sigs (350) and (650) Provisionals....

Let's just go with (800) TOT for now...

9.) San Joaquin County-

This gets trickier... both the County website and the State website indicate that there are a TOT of 15.5k ballots remaining to be counted as of 3/19 4:30 PM PDT.

San Joaquin County added only (50) DEM PRIM votes between 3/19 and 3/24.

Currently their '20 DEM PRIM numbers are roughly 100% of '16 DEM PRIM numbers.

Although this is not an overwhelmingly DEM County and was only +15% HRC in '16, it's looking to me like basically they counted most of the remaining (380) VbMs, with a chunk of them shuffling into Provisional or Conditional categories.

Considering that San Joaquin County has been adding roughly 10k Residents per Year since 2016, it is not implausible that there could be a Total 15k ballots outstanding...

Now *IF* this is the case, it could actually make CD-09 flip, with currently Biden leading by about (500) votes....

Let's say hypothetically 10k of these ballots are valid DEM ballots and break (50% Sanders and 30% Biden).... or even 8k Valid DEM ballots (45% Sanders and 35% Biden), that is how the math could work, especially considering some of the Provisional ballot breaking patterns we have seen elsewhere in California.

Now, it could just be that with COVID-19 going on that the "outstanding ballot numbers" have not been properly vetted, but if it's on an official County site, that would expose them for State sanctions on election reporting.

10.) San Mateo County-

This one appears to be pretty clear.... County updated uncounted ballots on 3/16 with their past election result updates on 3/13.

9.1k TOT ballots outstanding sounds reasonable, which we we won't find out until the final Statement of the Votes. Note with apparently over 50% of these VbMs vs Provisionals, these ballots likely won't break nearly as heavily Sanders in what was a narrow Sanders County...

11.) Stanislaus County-

Stanislaus is a bit murky....  Estimated uncounted ballots on the State website with a 3/13 11:34 AM PDT timestamp indicate 16.8k uncounted ballots. Currently results are about 100% of 2016 DEM Prim numbers as of their 3/13 update...

There 3/13/20 Summary update timestamp was 10:55 AM PDT, prior to the uploading of numbers to the CA County Reporting Status website.

This was only a 47-45 HRC>Trump County, and a 51-47 HRC>Sanders County.

Still, it is a County of 530k People centered around Modesto (208k POP).

It is 44% Anglo and 44% Latino...

Especially with new Cali AVR, and DEM PRIM NPP voting rules, I actually would not be surprised to see there being some 16.8k ballots out there.

Still about 45% of the outstanding ballots are VbM....

Will be interesting to see final DEM '16>'20 PRIM numbers, but it does appear that potentially there is a bit of a Youth and also Latino voter surge going on within the Central Valley.

13.) Merced County-

Should be close to done counting by now.... Unofficial ballots numbers from their last 3/13 update show 3.2k votes, overwhelmingly provisional.

The County update from 3/20 added another 1.7k DEM ballots.

Let's say (500) of the outstanding ballots were PUB or invalid, at most there would be an additional 1k TOT ballots

14.) Santa Clara County-

Looks like there is a bit of a discrepancy here. Unprocessed Ballot report from 3/25 listed an estimated 1k ballots (Conditional) outstanding as of 3/25 4:16 PM PDT upload.

Not sure I missed a Santa Clara County update, since my records show an additional 5k DEM ballots since the last update that I had saved...

Regardless to err on the side of caution I will say there are another 1k ballots out there, although quite possible we are getting in OC trickle territory.

Now it should be noted that Santa Clara County has been the hardest hit County to date in California as a % of COVID-19 cases by POP, so it could just be a gap where Provisional numbers were used as placeholder estimates (which some California Counties used in '16) rather than actuals.

15.) Santa Cruz County-

Latest update 3/20 on both ballots and official results.

Looks like there are about 4.0k ballots out in an overwhelmingly DEM County.

16.) Kern County-

5.7k est unprocessed 3/19 2:05 PM PDT....

Looking like a match, and still some votes out of Kern.

17.) Santa Barbara County-

10.9k TOT votes remaining looks accurate with the last update on 3/13.

Amazing that it is taking them longer to count than even Butte County.

Is everybody out toking up and surfing to practice their Social Distancing here...

18.) Ventura County-

State numbers indicate a total of 7.2k ballots.

There was a dump on 3/24 of roughly 5k DEM ballots.

At maximum there might be something like 1.7k TOT ballots outstanding.

19.) San Bernadino-

3/24 State Unprocessed Ballot Report= 3.7k 1:26 PM PDT
3/24 County Update-                                  2:00 PM PDT

Looks like 3.7k TOT matches....

20.) Los Angeles County-

3/24 State Unprocessed Ballot Report= 3,601 TOT Votes

Appears to check out with numbers from their last update on 3/24

21.) Riverside County-

3/25 State Unprocessed Ballot Report 5:05 PM PDT

21k outstanding (20k Provisional)....

This appears to match the 3/25 County update, but again any time you see zeros and fives, these are not actual ballots but rather pre-populated estimates....

I'll call it 20k, but with a giant question mark...

22.) San Diego County-

Their 3/23 State Unprocessed Ballot report 5:01 PM PDT had it at 5,000 estimated uncounted ballots...

I'll call it 5k with another giant question mark....

23.) Imperial County-

3/19 5:22 PM PDT 1,634 Votes

There appears to have been an update on 3/20, plus one just posted a little bit ago today....

I'll leave that County blank for the moment....

[Tender Branson]

CA:

28 Days Left

Official Canvass Period: March 5, 2020 - April 24, 2020*

* Pursuant to Executive Order N-34-20 issued by the Governor on March 20, 2020, the official canvass period for the March 3, 2020, Presidential Primary Election was extended by 21 days.

Why did they extend the canvass period ? There are not even 150.000 ballots left to count.

[brucejoel99]

CA:

28 Days Left

Official Canvass Period: March 5, 2020 - April 24, 2020*

* Pursuant to Executive Order N-34-20 issued by the Governor on March 20, 2020, the official canvass period for the March 3, 2020, Presidential Primary Election was extended by 21 days.

Why did they extend the canvass period ? There are not even 150.000 ballots left to count.

Because California's ballot-counting process requires officials to be physically present in person, & there's obviously an increased level of risk associated with that right now (not to mention, less officials might feel comfortable coming in).

[NOVA Green]

Sifting through the Alameda County numbers a bit more:

Albany, California

Pop: 19.4k
Age: VAP tends to skew higher than statewide avg in the the 30-49 category, lowest in the 18-29, tracks slighly lower in the 50+
Race/Ethnicity: 49% Anglo, 26% Asian, 13% Latino, 6% Mixed, 4% Black
--- Latinos (52% of Mexican Ancestry, 18% Central American, 22% South American (!)
--- Asians  (48% Chinese Ancestry, 11% Korean, 9% Japanese, 8% Indian, 5% Filipino)
MHI: $85.5k/Yr
Occupations: Education (15%), Mgmt (14%), Science (9%), Computers & Math (6%) all score higher than statewide numbers generally by significant margins...
Industries: Education (23%), Professional (16%), Health Care (15%)
Educational Attainment: 80% with a post-secondary degree (!!!)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albany,_California

2008 DEM PRIM:
TOTAL: 5,539 DEM PRES PRIM BALLOTS

Obama-  59.8%
HRC-      35.3%

2016 DEM PRIM:
TOTAL: 6,368 DEM PRES PRIM BALLOTS

Sanders- 51.8%
HRC-      47.9%

2020 DEM PRIM:
TOTAL: 7,251 DEM PRES PRIM BALLOTS    (114% of '16 DEM PRIM)

Sanders-   36.1%
Warren-    31.0%
Biden-      20.3%
Bloomberg- 6.6%
Others-       5.9%



(12) Precincts in Albany, CA...

Warren 3/12
Sanders 9/12
Biden--- placed 3rd in all with his highest precinct 27.6% and lowest precinct 9.0%
Bloomberg--- Placed 4th in all with a low of 2.8% and his highest at 9.0%

Here is a precinct map from the 2020 CA PRIM for Albany, California.



Let's look a bit at the respective strengths of the various candidates:

SANDERS:

Precinct 260100--- (635) DEM PRIM Votes

Sanders--- 55%
Warren---  31%
Biden---      9%

It basically overlaps with Census Tract 420400....

Roughly 60% of the TOTAL Population is aged 22-44 years, with 32% of the population under the age of 18 !!!

Population--- 36% Asian, 27% Anglo, 27% Latino, 9% Mixed....

Looks like it was actually an HRC precinct in'16---  (54% HRC- 46% Sanders)....

What's going on here?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UC_Village

So it's looking like Sanders support increased dramatically between '16 & '20 among "Married UC Students & Grad Students".

Census Tract 420300.

Precinct 260300--- (734) DEM PRIM Votes

Sanders-       41.3%
Warren-        27.9%
Biden-          18.5%
Bloomberg-    6.8%
Others-          5.4%

Precinct 260400--- (849) DEM PRIM Votes

Sanders-       38.8%
Warren-        26.7%
Biden-          18.1%
Bloomberg-    9.0%
Others-          7.4%

Only 39% of the population is "Anglo", and roughly 36% Asian-American, 10% Latino, 5% Black, 6% "mixed"....

Population spikes in the 35-55 Year Range, with a much lower % of 18-34 Yrs, drops down a bit in the 55-60 yrs, and then jumps back up again in the 60-70 Yr olds.

Race/Ethnicity--- The population of Mexican-Americans now jumps to roughly 75% of the Latino population.

Asian-American population is still running roughly 50% Chinese-American, with Koreans and Japanese-Americans pretty steady...

MHI--- Jumps up to $86.4k/Yr with Educational attainment at 79% with a Post-secondary degree...

So okay...

2016 DEM PRIM:   (1,235 DEM PRIM Votes)

Sanders--- 704 Votes      (57.0%)
HRC---      527 Votes       (42.7%)
Others---     4

So now that we're getting a bit of a flavor of the City, time to flip over and look at the strong Warren precincts, in a part of the Bay Area where she performed extremely well...

Here is a map of Median Household Income and a few other demographics from official US Census Data sources...



Census Tract 420600 which is where we see the the $116k/yr, 69% Anglo, and 83% post-secondary corresponds precisely with Warren's strongest precincts within Albany, California...

Warren won precincts 262000 and 262100, capturing roughly 37-38% of the Democratic Primary Vote, with Sanders only running about 26%, with Biden performing a bit above average, with also one of Bloomberg's best precincts in the House....

2020:   1,237 DEM PRIM VOTES

Sanders-      25.8%
Warren-       37.3%
Biden-         22.7%
Bloomberg-   7.6%
Others-         6.5%

If we crunch the '16 DEM PRIM numbers for these same two precincts...

TOTAL= 1,129 DEM PRIM VOTES

Sanders- 43.8%
HRC-      55.8%

So although I am simply reporting the actual numbers and not trying to make any particular point here, but one of the fascinating things about California, is that political coalitions among Democratic Primary candidates perhaps are much more fluid than one might imagine....

Also a bit too much time on my hands with the "Coronavirus Blues", looking at precinct level results from small places in California....

Still each piece of data tells a story in the way that exit polls don't, let alone looking at simply raw numbers in County level results...

Stay tuned for more precinct level data from California...

The longer they keep me out of work, the more time on my hands, and although listen to the news in the background, and could be playing some of my favorite Computer Games, would rather be active than idle in these uneasy times....

[NOVA Green]

CA CD-49 flipped to Sanders, who now leads by (74) votes...