Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)

[Red Velvet]

Crivella will definitely lose even if he manages to go to the runoff since there are 3 left female candidates (PDT, PT and PSOL) splitting the progressive vote between themselves. There’s also Bandeira de Mello, a guy from REDE (a more environmentalist party) who was supposed to be in a coalition with Martha Rocha but now is going to run as well. So it will be actually FOUR different left options splitting the vote.

This divide wouldn’t have happened if Freixo was still the PSOL candidate, everyone would get behind him due to his name recognition. Ironically, him not running helps divide the left more since everyone has an argument to support candidates with lower ID recognition.

Last poll (15/09) was like this:

Eduardo Paes (DEM) - 19,7%
Marcelo Crivella (Rep.) - 11,1% (incumbent)
Benedita da Silva (PT)  - 9,0%
Martha Rocha (PDT) - 6,0%
Cabo Daciolo (PL) - 5,0% *
Renata Souza (PSOL) - 3,8%
Cristiane Brasil (PTB) - 3,2%
Luiz Lima (PSL) - 2,4%
Bandeira de Mello (REDE) - 1,6%
Paulo Marinho (PSDB) - 0,7%
Fred Luz (NOVO) - 0,6%

* His party is supporting Eduardo Paes so he won’t run, which is good, since he was the only 2018 Presidential candidate crazier than Bolsonaro.

People who say Crivella is doing a great/good job as mayor is 7,6%, while the ones who say it’s bad/awful is 74,5%. Outside the more fanatical evangelical base, he’s an extremely hated incumbent and risks not even going to the runoff in a very divided field.

If the runoff is anyone vs Crivella, the non-Crivella option will likely win but several stuff could still happen. I think Eduardo Paes will get it in the end but watch out for Benedita stealing some of the evangelical vote (she is one herself, although from a left party) and going to the runoff with support of both progressives and religious people. I don’t like her and would largely prefer Martha Rocha or Renata Souza but she’s probably the biggest threat from the left since her name ID is also bigger than the others who are less known.

Basically, of the top 5 (not counting Daciolo) this would be my preferential ranking:

Martha Rocha (PDT) > Renata Souza (PSOL) > Eduardo Paes (DEM) > Benedita da Silva (PT) > Crivella (Rep.)

Eduardo Paes is comfort well-known food. Not perfect but he was a hard-working person and people know what to expect from him while reminding of his term with nostalgia considering the absolute trash that is the current mayor lol.

[Red Velvet]

In Rio de Janeiro, the electoral justice decided that mayor Marcelo Crivella cannot run for reelection. He was sentenced for using the clealiness company of the city for electoral campaign. Crivella will appeal to higher courts, so, he will run.

It depends on how fast the courts will respond to everything. If final say is before 26/10 then Crivella could maybe not run if his electoral register isn’t analyzed. If it’s later but still in 2020, he could run and appear on the voting machine but even if he wins he wouldn’t be allowed to take the office and 2nd place would probably be the mayor?

If the judicial process goes all the way to 2021, then yeah, it doesn’t matter for these elections.

[Red Velvet]

Newest poll for Rio de Janeiro (Paraná Pesquisas):

1. Eduardo Paes (DEM) - 25,1%
2. Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos, incumbent) - 13,6%
3. Delegada Martha Rocha (PDT) - 11,8%
4. Benedita da Silva (PT) - 7,3%
5. Eduardo Bandeira de Mello (REDE) - 3,6%
6. Clarissa Garotinho (PL) - 2,2%
7. Luiz Lima (PSL) - 1,9%
8. Renata Souza (PSOL) - 1,6%
9. Cyro Garcia (PSTU) - 1,0%
10. Cristiane Brasil (PTB) - 0,9%
11. Paulo Messina (MDB) - 0,9%
12. Fred Luz (NOVO) - 0,8%

I kinda expect Crivella to go down considering how hated he is and the evangelical pro-Bolsonaro right could shift to someone no one ever heard of but has ties to corrupt establishment politicians while presenting themselves as anti-establishment (Luiz Lima from PSL lol). I mean they were dumb enough to fall for it in 2018 with Governor Witzel who got impeached this year with their blessings, so I’m sure they could do it again since they’re so proud to show their stupidity diploma.

The left would easily go to 2nd round if they weren’t divided with so many candidates (PDT/PT/PSOL/REDE/PSTU). This will be Eduardo Paes vs whoever has the most excitement to go to the run off vote and I guess that excitement could come from either the left or the right. The left will vote for Eduardo Paes if they don’t get into the runoff and the right could do the same if they lose 2nd spot to the left even if they hate Eduardo Paes and severely damaged his reputation to some level in 2018 when he ran against Witzel for Governor. So I give Paes the advantage since he will be basically perceived as the establishment “moderate” option that both left and right could vote for later in order to stop the other.

Delegada Martha Rocha could maybe have a chance in a runoff against Paes because of her chief of police background, some right wing voters could choose her over Eduardo Paes based on this since security is a major topic for the Brazilian right, even if Martha is from the left. But even then, people tend to polarize everything nowadays so I’m not really sure.

[Red Velvet]

I’m voting for Martha Rocha in Rio knowing fully well that this is 95% likely to go to Eduardo Paes no matter what. Counting only valid votes (which excludes null votes) he jumps to 43%. You just need 50% + 1 to already win on the 1st round, with no need of a runoff.

Oh well, at least it won’t be Crivella. I can’t call 4 years of Eduardo Paes “progress” though considering he ran the city from 2008 to 2016.

Yay for Russomano sinking in SP. I would say they will re-elect Covas/PSDB but the city of SP is way more unpredictable than the state of SP (which always elects a PSDB governor for almost 30 years already, with strong support from towns in the interior of the state). In the city, rarely mayors manage to get re-elected though so I don’t know what to expect.

Boulos is growing fast but I think he would be the Freixo (popular PSOL candidate from Rio in 2012 and 2016, got in 2nd place) version for São Paulo. Meaning there is lots of excitement to put him on 2nd round, but maybe also potential for big rejection from moderate voters that prevent them to win it.

Meanwhile, Russomano is SP’s version of Crivella lol. Especially considering both are the Bolsonaro candidates. He could maybe win if the competition is weak but he tends to lose many voters as the campaign goes on since they’re terrible. So did Crivella until 2016 though, always lost until he won it, so SP should not take for granted that he doesn’t have chances.

Covas is a worsened version of Eduardo Paes. Establishment option that at least you know what to expect. Paes has a lot more charisma though (personification of a “Carioca”) and is generally more competent, while benefiting from the fact he has more rejected opposition. While in SP Covas actually seems more hated than Russomano. Consequences of being the incumbent, I guess.

[Red Velvet]

Crivella didn’t have the same huge rejection he has today during 2016, even if he was already disliked at that point. Also, 2016 + 2018 were the peak of the conservative wave, when that movement was at its strongest point post the Dilma impeachment that happened in mid-2016. And even then, with all the “leftist PSOL scare” going strong, Freixo still managed to go to the runoff and get 40% of the vote against Crivella’s 60%.

It’s a different scenario nowadays, the conservative movement kinda divided itself (Bolsonaro supporters vs Car-Wash supporters) and all the members they elected in Rio at least were a total failure. Mayor Crivella is the most hated mayor I’ve seen here and may be ineligible if justice finishes the process in time; Governor Witzel was an unknown that people blindvoted because he associated to Bolsonaro and he got impeached earlier this year; Bolsonaro has abandoned his base because the “anti-system” message that elected him is only helpful during election time. The left was the “establishment” before but now that is the right and I think there will be some sort of backlash, even if minimum (since the left parties are infighting, each one wanting to be the protagonist)

I really think Freixo could’ve had success this year had he chosen to run again. Rio is the city with the strongest PSOL voter culture, seeing Boulos do well in freaking São Paulo makes me wonder what could’ve been... Eduardo Paes still would’ve been the favorite considering how risk-averse Rio is today after the last adventure disasters of Crivella and Witzel, but I wouldn’t underestimate the very strong established base Freixo/PSOL has in wealthier areas of Rio, with increasing penetration in other sectors as well.

Even with Renata Souza (PSOL new candidate) being an unknown and weak candidate (didn’t like her at the debate), I wouldn’t entirely count them out. Where I live, in south zone, the only propaganda I receive on the street is from her and the PSOL, they’re using Freixo image hard in order to reassemble his voters back. Because most of the people who voted for Freixo in 2016 have now divided to vote for other options, like Martha Rocha (PDT), Benedita da Silva (PT) and even Eduardo Paes (DEM).

PSOL used to be much more vilified in the past, for being the only single leftist party who talked about issues like Weed; Abortion; Structural Racism; LGBT rights; etc in a society that is mostly conservative on social/culture issues because of influence of religion. Rejection to them had very little to do with economic justice stuff that PT always got lots of support for defending. The discussion of social issues is becoming much less taboo though and thus the rejection of PSOL decreases, alongside the perception they’re “radicals” becoming outdated.

Even other left wing parties that were more perceived as “moderates” or “center-left” like the PT or PDT are using these social issues more on their propaganda because they see how Brazilian society changed. Look at their commercials and members as well and you see a shift has happened DESPITE Bolsonaro. Not only left wing parties became more progressive, I think Brazilian society as a whole has too even if doesn’t look like it. Also, many many important victories happening in the last decade. I think that’s part of a world trend though.

Like, I’m gay and I can’t believe that on a span of less than 10 years we got Gay Marriage; Criminalization of Homophobia (equaled as the same as crime of Racism from the 1989 law) and also right to donate blood without any restrictions on how much active of a sex life you have. Even if it all came from the Supreme Court, how society reacted naturally to it was great.

[Red Velvet]

In the group of voters who have college degree, Renata Souza has 9%, tied to Martha Rocha, and better than Benedita and Crivella.

And she has growth potential with these voters as well thanks to the really strong PSOL campaign structure in Rio, at least on the colleges and in the south zone as a whole. I don’t think it would be enough to go to 2nd round like Freixo though since his voters have already distributed themselves between Renata herself, Martha, Benedita and Eduardo. My small bubble for example, was Freixo in 2016 and now most are Martha with some few for Eduardo Paes.

It’s hard to predict who will end up in 2nd place. From the left, I could see either Martha, Benedita or even a surprise from Renata if she manages to bring regular PSOL voters (like me lol) back but I already disliked her debate performance and my impression from others who also watched is that they’re disappointed it’s not Freixo. From the right, Crivella could hold the 14% he has and be enough but I could also see candidate Luiz Lima being a potential spoiler if the right gets suddenly excited to campaign hard like they did in 2018 for an unknown. But it would be too much like 2018’s Witzel and I think Rio voters are more traumatized from that backfiring so hard and will want to play safe. Which is why Eduardo Paes will come strong.

[Red Velvet]

Burrito, why don’t you like Benedita Da Silva?

I think I was the one who ranked her somewhat low in my preferences, behind Eduardo Paes. My problem with Benedita is more her party than her properly.

I think PT just lost the “authority” it used to have to talk about most issues and doesn’t have that big appeal it used to have anymore. They represented change and hope in the 90s, in the 00s they represented progress and stability, nowadays it’s more like they don’t have a message.

It’s not that I dislike them, they just don’t excite me anymore. The only thing they have is goodwill from Lula years and that tends to diminish every passing year. In that sense, both DEM and PT are establishment parties I feel mostly meh about. So in the end I opt for Eduardo Paes because of safety, he is that well-known devil that you at least know is hard working and efficient even with lots of flaws.

PSOL in some ways represents hope to me even if they need to be more organized and united internally. I also really like Ciro Gomes ideas for the country and therefore I lean to support PDT more these days. 2018 was first time I didn’t vote PT for president, shifting to PDT on the first round (eventually had to vote PT on the second one).

I always vote for PSOL in legislative elections because they’re an important dissenting voice that I wish would be stronger. For the executive seats it depends, sometimes I vote for PSOL for Governor and Mayor if the option is Marcelo Freixo or if there aren’t any other good options at all. But I always tended to opt mostly for more competitive left parties in those executive ones, like PT and now PDT. But I also supported Gabeira (Green Party) for mayor in 2008 and voted for Eduardo Paes (DEM, center-right) for Governor in 2018.

In Rio, Governor races are the worst ones because you usually feel like you don’t want to vote for anyone lol. Presidential and Mayoral ones are usually more exciting because you at least feel you have options to be happy about supporting.

[Red Velvet]

Indeed, PT’s success with lower income people is something other left parties should look up to. It’s impossible to have a broad front without PT because no one has such builted trust with such important demographic. PDT does well but not nearly as much and PSOL is still seen as an “elite” party.

It’s interesting how the party makes such an important difference. If Boulos ran in the PT, I think the demographics of his vote would significantly change. The appeal he has with upper middle class and high-education voters mirrors way too much Freixo here in 2016, who always struggled to get accepted by other different demographics of voters.

[Red Velvet]

Rejection for that last DataFolha poll in Rio (% who says wouldn’t vote for that candidate):

Marcelo Crivella: 58%
Eduardo Paes: 31%
Clarissa Garotinho: 31%
Benedita da Silva: 27%
Cyro Garcia: 15%
Luiz Lima: 11%
Paulo Messina: 10%
Bandeira de Mello: 9%
Fred Luz: 9%
Renata Souza: 8%
Sued (candidate with 0% vote intention): 8%
Glória Heloiza: 8%
Henrique Simonard (candidate with 0% vote intention): 7%
Martha Rocha: 7%
Rejects everyone: 6%
Doesn’t reject anyone: 1%

My unrejected girl Martha Rocha is the only chance Rio has to not have an Eduardo Paes THIRD term and she’s tied in second place with the devil.

I am really scared about Luiz Lima being a Witzel 2.0 though. I hope the left eventually unites under one single candidate in the end if he manages to grow more and be a threat to reach 2nd place.

Gosh, these elections will be the end of me. It’s one thing to get terrible stuff when it’s expected, another much cruel one is to have hope just to be crushed later. I hope Martha and PDT keeps this upward trajectory. Happy the other left female candidates also ticked up while Crivella goes down.

[Red Velvet]

Yes, Luiz Lima can increase his performance because he can take most of the Crivella's votes and go to ~15%. Crivella don't make all the bolsominions excited because he was an ally of Lula, Dilma, Lindberg, Cabral and Paes in the past. Bolsonaro has a positive evaluation of ~35% in Rio de Janeiro.

Until now, the left-wing famous artists, like Chico Buarque, Caetano Veloso, Gilberto Gil, Bela Gil, Wagner Moura, Leticia Sabatella, Sonia Braga, Fernanda Montenegro and Gregorio Duvivier are silent about the Rio campaign. They are supporting Boulos in São Paulo and Manuela in Porto Alegre. Maybe, they participate in the campaign in the last week. Many of them usually support PSOL, but since Renata Souza is not polling well, maybe they endorse Martha or Benedita. If these artists have an influence in something like 3% of the voters, their decision of whom they will support can put one of them in the runoff.

These artists were the ones pressuring for Freixo to run even after Renata had been confirmed...

I think with the lack of Freixo these people just don’t have a passionate choice in Rio and will just stay quieter. Some will go to Martha as the “pragmatic” center-left choice that can win, others who want more traditional “left“ credentials will go to Benedita and possibly some passionate PSOL voters will stay with Renata too. I think they would be very divided as a whole.

But who are we kidding, Rio 2020 is basically a Ciro vs Haddad re-match for the spot in the runoff, with outside scary chances that Luiz Lima could get it as well.

São Paulo 2020 meanwhile is giving me a less tragic version of Rio 2016 vibes. I think 2nd round will be Covas (PSDB) vs Boulos (PSOL) and like Freixo, Boulos would probably lose. His rejection is currently on par with Covas but if memory serves me right, Crivella also was strongly rejected in 2016, as much as Freixo when campaign started. But rejection for PSOL tends to grow in some places during 2nd round due to far-left scare.

[Red Velvet]

Things are heating up in Rio. All main candidates supporters are interested in weakening Martha Rocha. Last polls really lighted a desperation fire in some people’s asses. It’s Martha vs the world.

Eduardo Paes has her as target because she’s the only option that currently wins over him on the runoff, he would rather run against someone with no chances like Crivella. It would be an extremely hard hit on the career of someone who was expected to win Governor in 2018 but was swallowed by the far-right wave, to now lose a smaller seat like mayor against a “new” option, now more center-left.

Crivella is being humiliated by being an incumbent kicked out of the runoff, which would likely kill his political career for executive offices in the future. I don’t see how he recovers from this, he will probably have to run for a legislative state seat in 2022. His and Eduardo Paes campaign will focus on Martha following next days according to the news.

PT and PSOL most partisan hacks are trying to find the most purist arguments against her that they themselves don’t follow to use in social media as well. Stuff like her working for the police means she is conservative (when PT also has “Delegada” candidates spread on other municipalities) or fake news in general. This is mostly fight for political power in the left though, a victory for Martha in an important city like Rio is seen by some as a victory for Ciro Gomes and his 2022 project. And PDT isn’t liked by the most strongly loyalist PT or PSOL voters who identify themselves with the “purist left” speech even though when their own leaders don’t follow it they excuse it as “pragmatism” or “working towards governability”.

That won’t be a fight you will see in São Paulo, where Boulos is the left option who is ahead. PT sectors are more sympathetic to his name due to his association with Lula, even if they aren’t necessarily friendly to PSOL, which is also considered a threat to PT hegemony of the left. I’ve actually seen some PT supporter accusing PSOL (!!!!) of working for the far-right to divide the left because they take away votes from PT lmao. PSOL on the other hand tends to be friendly with PT nowadays though.

[Red Velvet]

I think it’s simple:

- Divided left voters that attack each other more than they do the right.

- Bolsonaro announcing his public support for Crivella driving a bit more of his voters towards him

- Massive campaign from all sides (Paes, Lima, Crivella and online PT supporters) against Martha Rocha, who stopped growing and stabilized.

- Martha and Benedita TV campaigns are bland. Martha giving unnecessary attention to silly attacks and lacking energy.

- Benedita having some of an evangelical base that is going to Crivella as “voto útil”.

- Some Renata and Benedita voters anticipating the “voto útil” and going to Eduardo Paes for safety or Martha Rocha for viability.

- Limited campaign on the streets benefit candidates that are most known: Paes and Crivella. Also the lack of debates helps to do this.

- Luiz Lima disgusts me, but his team knows to make TV ads. Also, he was always expected to make gains as time passed since he is candidate with low ID recognition.

[Red Velvet]

This may be one of the worst excuses ever...

A bit lame given all his macho alpha male posturing too.

It was always just talk, this guy is a coward and acted like this his entire life. If it becomes evident he will lose (like, if his approval rating drops too much or Americas left keep in upward swing), he might not even run in order to not lose and protect himself from the humiliation Trump was subjected to.

He will then claim his administration was a success and then win a legislative seat with whatever support he still has because that will still keep his special status from justice.

His approval ratings in the capitals have become more negative too (he was elected with big support from cities).

This is the state capitals poll released today, with blue bar indicating % who have positive opinion (great/good) of his government and red bar indicating % with negative perception (bad/awful):



Boa Vista is the capital of Roraima, the Brazilian state that borders Venezuela and that had a migration crisis with the entrance of Venezuelans. It’s the capital most strongly pro-Bolsonaro.

Salvador is the capital of Bahia, in the Northeast region (which became a left stronghold during Lula’s years) and it’s the blackest capital, with strong African culture influence. It’s the capital most strongly anti-Bolsonaro.

[Red Velvet]

For Brazilian members, G1 has a quiz that ranks for multiple cities the candidate that has proposals more aligned with you.

https://especiaisg1.globo/politica/eleicoes/2020/jogo-eleitoral/1-turno/

I did it for Rio de Janeiro and my results were:

1. Bandeira de Melo (REDE)
2. Cyro Garcia (PSTU)
3. Martha Rocha (PDT) - my vote
4. Paulo Messina (MDB)
5. Benedita da Silva (PT)
6. Renata Souza (PSOL)
7. Glória Heloíza (PSC)
8. Eduardo Paes (DEM)
9. Suêd (PMB)
10. Luiz Lima (PSL)
11. Fred Luz (NOVO)
12. Clarissa Garotinho (PROS)
13. Crivella (Republicanos)

Which is pretty accurate! The four candidates I dislike the most ended up in the bottom 4 and the top 6 is fairly accurate.

From 1989 to 2014, Rio de Janeiro voted on the left of São Paulo at national level. But the approval rate of Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro is higher than the approval rate of Bolsonaro in São Paulo. The biggest explanation is that the share of the evangelic population in Rio de Janeiro is bigger.

Besides the evangelicals, Bolsonaro is a politician from Rio and you tend to get more goodwill from your home state. But I agree that it’s mostly how the evangelical religion became stronger in Rio suburbs. Also, maybe “tough on crime” speeches could tend to have more appeal in Rio than in any other place.

I would add to what you said that Rio is strongly anti-PSDB but not necessarily anti-right. Once PSDB finally lost the status of being the representative of the “right” post-2014 to Bolsonaro, it became easier to move right. São Paulo on the other hand always was a very PSDB-friendly state and the city too.

Rio is kinda losing its status (if not already) of being the home city of the “intelectual left”. It’s unforgivable to move to the right of a city like São Paulo. But understandable considering the scenarios of the two cities in the current context.

Porto Alegre in the south also has an old historical relationship with the left, since Brizola and the resistance against the military dictatorship. It kinda got overshadowed with the South and white-majority areas as a whole shifting way to the right in recent years, but Porto Alegre is kinda making a comeback with Manuela D’Ávila, from the Communist Party, being currently #1 in polls.

Florianópolis numbers are very good and may look surprising on surface, but the city itself is considerably way more progressive than the state of Santa Catarina, especially the interior areas. It’s very sad and unfair whenever people associate the state as a whole with Nazis because of very specific localized news, they don’t deserve this reputation.

Finishing all the 3 capitals from the south region, Curitiba being by far the most conservative of them isn’t surprising at all. In the past, Paraná used to be seen as being to the right of both Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.

[Red Velvet]

From 1989 to 2014, Rio de Janeiro voted on the left of São Paulo at national level. But the approval rate of Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro is higher than the approval rate of Bolsonaro in São Paulo. The biggest explanation is that the share of the evangelic population in Rio de Janeiro is bigger.

Evangelical "Christians" really love these godless right wingers don't they?

Bolsonaro is religious.
And surely you don't believe that only left wingers vote for what they view as "lesser evil"
This isn't a defense of Bolsonaro or the Brazilian right.

Questionable. He only mentions God all the time nowadays and got baptized in Israel in 2016, just two years before his election, when he already had intentions and clear plans of running. I could be wrong but to me he just tries to pander to evangelicals a lot in order to secure their votes.

It’s not out of his reach because that’s what he did in economics. He adopted a neoliberal stance that is friendly to Chicago-boys and market elites once his campaign started but that was very contrasting to his history. To give an idea, he was continuously elected to congress since 1990 because he stood up for the right low-tier military workers, defending better conditions, more benefits, etc. Which made him somewhat unlivable to higher-level sectors of military.

A lot of his strategy in 2018 was to appeal to different right wing groups that never were connected: Economic pro-business elites, evangelical religious people, the military, anti-corruption “Car-Wash” movement that was anti-politics in their core... But he himself only cared about them to get to power.

[Red Velvet]

São Paulo will have Boulos in the runoff, Porto Alegre will have Manuela D’Ávila, Recife will have two left parties in the runoff...

Meanwhile Rio will have battle of ex-mayor vs current mayor. Two options with scandals. Rio deserves its suffering. The city only gets more decadent with time and slowly keeps losing its old charm. It’s a privilege to live in the most beautiful city in the world but I keep dreaming about moving to São Paulo or one of the capitals in the South or in the Northeast. Brasília is too boring and monotonous of a city but I would move there too at this point.

Militias on the rise, the most corrupt politicians from the country and increasing influence of evangelical Christians are destroying the city and you see the effects of the bad adminstration with the increase of poverty and the fact the city is by far the slowest to recover from economic crisis. I would easily get out.

[Red Velvet]

Yes. According to the polls, Eduardo Paes would have a huge margin against Crivella in the runoff. But since Crivella is a horrible mayor endorsed by a horrible president, it would be disgusting see him in the runoff.

Doesn’t matter who wins anyway, Bolsonaro just hinted possibility of entering war against US (“Diplomacy is not always enough, we need powder”) because of Biden’s claims about the Amazon. Crivella or Paes elected mayor we’ll be dead in the next year on the same way lmao

[Red Velvet]

My vote tommorow in Rio de Janeiro

Mayor: Benedita da Silva 13
"Vereador": Luciana Boiteux 50180

Cool. Mine in Rio:

Prefeita: Martha Rocha 12 (PDT)
Vereador: Paulo Pinheiro 50111 (PSOL)

For city council I try to pick someone I like that I think that will be on fringe of making it and this year without a big profile name like Freixo running for mayor, I worry that maybe PSOL numbers will decrease, so I chose to play it a bit safer. Also big names running this time

In the last election in 2016, PSOL got 6 seats and Paulo got 4th in the party, so I chose him. Wanted to prioritize the health topic this year. Was between him and Luciana Boiteux, who I also think has good chances but is far from “safe” like Tarcísio Motta, Chico Alencar and the widow of Marielle Franco, Monica Benício.

In 2018 I remember picking options that barely “made it” for Deputado Estadual and Federal. If only I had some of the same luck on the higher positions... It was:

Deputado Estadual: Dani Monteiro (PSOL) - was 4th of the party, which got 4 seats
Deputado Federal: David Miranda (PSOL) - was barely out but managed to enter congress after replacing Jean, who moved out of Brazil
Senador: Chico Alencar (PSOL) and Lindbergh (PT) - both failed
Governador: Tarcísio Motta (PSOL) - didn’t make to the runoff
Presidente: Ciro Gomes (PDT) - didn’t make to the runoff

[Red Velvet]

Yes. Polls close at 5pm and the results come soon. But I will post here only in the evening. I was drafted to work in the poll (mesário) in the precint I vote. So, it is my task to collect signatures, check voter's ID, type the voter's numbers in the machine so that they can vote, organize the line in order to observe safe distance, take the disk storage of the machine after the closing time. I will need some masks to chance in every 4 hour. When I come home, I post here and comment the results.

Right. I will also follow the results tomorrow. I'm curious to see, as Bolsonaro allies are almost certain to perform very badly, how will the former main parties, PSDB, PT and MDB, perform in the elections.

Both Bolsonaro allies and PT candidates are expected to perform bad, at least on the capitals, which tend to have more influence. Only PT candidate expected to go to runoff in capitals is in Recife and they’re 2nd place. With Bolsonaro allies they could go to the runoff in around 3 capitals and in less populated states. There are 26 states in total.

In all municipalities we don’t know what to expect but probable that they will perform better than in the capitals.

For MDB and PSDB I don’t expect significant changes from 2016. Even PT won’t change much since they already fell a lot in 2016 (but at least then they won one capital: Rio Branco).

But there’s a pre-consensus that this will favor more “center” candidates, not the Bolsonaro extreme right and also not the PT left. Even if the Bolsonarismo energy from 2018 got significantly down, PT is still very rejected as a party.

Some other left and center-left options may succeed though. I don’t think Boulos wins against Covas in the São Paulo runoff, but Manuela from the Communist Party could win in Porto Alegre; PSOL is set to win in Belém, PSB/PDT alliance can be very fruitful in northeast cities like Recife, Fortaleza and Aracaju (could’ve been in Rio too but Eduardo Paes will be strong).

[Red Velvet]

If you don't consider the catastrophic year of 2016, the worst year for the left in Brazil in municipal elections was 1996. PT won only two state capitals: Edmílson Rodrigues was elected mayor of Belém and Raul Pont was elected mayor of Porto Alegre.

If you restrict the left to PT, PSOL and PCdoB and exclude PDT, PSB and REDE from the left, in 2020 can win only in Belém and Porto Alegre again. The same Edmílson Rodrigues, now in PSOL, has a huge lead in the polls. And Manuela (PCdoB) is leading the polls in Porto Alegre.

I think this isolation and separatism is a mistake though, kinda like when some PSOL purist voters call PT a “fake left” that has one leftist discourse during elections but go conservative while in government.

Especially in these times of extremism, which require more pragmatism. PT is weak, with large rejection rates and will stay that way unless it renovates itself with newer younger leaderships, which will naturally take time even if they go that route.

Any “left” will only win nowadays with an united broad front that includes all from PSOL, PDT, PT, PSB, REDE, PCdoB, etc. Even if Bolsonaro could be weaker, there are strong alternatives that can be substitutes just as bad as him, which is the case of a Doria or Huck/VP Moro alliance. And in the scenario where Bolsonaro is ineligible due to his crimes, these people will unfortunately be the favorites, especially if the different parties of the left keep disputing between themselves.

[Red Velvet]

Could we a see a surprise win already on the 1st round for Covas and Paes? The trend is favoring that possibility.

I think it’s unlikely but it’s certainly possible. I think it will be closer than these numbers show though. Both are on an upward swing and those are even more important than the numbers, indicating that the trend is for them to grow more with people who decide their vote on Election Day.

“Boca de Urna” polls on Election Day sometimes show these final trends becoming even stronger than the last poll. So it bodes well for Paes and Covas even if it’s uncertain how strong the trend will keep.

In 2018, I remember final presidential polls indicating something like 40%-41% of valid votes to Bolsonaro. Kinda similar to what these polls show regarding Eduardo Paes. He ended up between 46%-47%, just barely missing out an outright victory against Haddad.

Personally, the only good argument for an Eduardo Paes outright win is that I wouldn’t have to do Sunday “Mesário” work in a runoff which he would win anyway. And I guess getting rid of Crivella sooner without letting him go to a runoff, which is kinda humiliating after everything he did. I don’t accept this man still having this level of support, makes me very ashamed of the city.

[Red Velvet]

In my section/precinct (which kinda leans to upper middle class) things went like this:

1. Eduardo Paes (DEM) - 38,8%
2. Martha Rocha (PDT) - 17,7%
3. Benedita da Silva (PT) - 12,0%
3. Crivella (Rep)- 12,0%
5. Luiz Lima (PSL) - 8,6%
6. Renata Souza (PSOL) - 4,6%
6. Fred Luz (NOVO) - 4,6%
8. Bandeira de Mello (REDE) - 1,1%
9. Paulo Messina (MDB) - 0,6%

On the neighboring one to mine it was this:

1. Eduardo Paes (DEM) - 42,7%
2. Martha Rocha (PDT) - 20,5%
3. Benedita da Silva (PT) - 14,9%
4. Crivella (Rep) - 6,0%
5. Fred Luz (NOVO) - 5,1%
6. Renata Souza (PSOL) - 4,3%
7. Bandeira de Mello (REDE) - 3,0%
8. Luiz Lima (PSL) - 2,6%
9. Paulo Messina (MDB) - 0,8%

Considering it’s more upper middle class than average Rio, it’s unfavorable to Crivella so I expect final numbers for him to be much higher, bumped by evangelical groups concentrated in poorer areas. I do think the last minute poll is right that he will overperform.

Also, based on my precinct demographics, I expected higher numbers for Renata Souza (PSOL) and lower numbers for Benedita (PT), which to me evidences a good number of Psol voters changed in last minute to Benedita.

The NOVO “overperformance” in my sector is totally expected though. Their final numbers will be much closer to ZERO once you count all the city votes and include less elite areas.

Happy for Boulos overperformance in São Paulo! It’s absolutely crazy that São Paulo is now to the left of Rio but they didn’t have an extremely divided left destroying each other and also Evangelical church hasn’t brainwashed people there in the same level they accomplished in some areas of Rio.

Seriously, I can’t believe I want to move to freaking São Paulo now, of all places. That’s the trashy level Rio has gotten.

[Red Velvet]

Also, based on my precinct demographics, I expected higher numbers for Renata Souza (PSOL) and lower numbers for Benedita (PT), which to me evidences a good number of Psol voters changed in last minute to Benedita.

The NOVO “overperformance” in my sector is totally expected though. Their final numbers will be much closer to ZERO once you count all the city votes and include less elite areas.

Happy for Boulos overperformance in São Paulo! It’s absolutely crazy that São Paulo is now to the left of Rio but they didn’t have an extremely divided left destroying each other and also Evangelical church hasn’t brainwashed people there in the same level they accomplished in some areas of Rio.

Seriously, I can’t believe I want to move to freaking São Paulo now, of all places. That’s the trashy level Rio has gotten.

Yes, very strong numbers in favour of PSOL all across the country. It seems that many leftwing voters are shifting towards PSOL while PT is basically being tossed into the garbabe. Maybe there will an realignment on the left in the 2024 elections similar of what happened in the right in 2018.

Few votes counted yet, however.

That’s basically it lol.

Yet PT people and their staunch supporters will still swear they can win now all by themselves, they’re in complete delusion and refuse to acknowledge that they lost space within the population (not just the neoliberal elites lmao) and it’s not only because of the dirty schemes against them in the last years. Even if the party was targeted by the elites, they failed people as well.

PT used to be my favorite party during Lula and Dilma years and nowadays I find myself much more represented by PSOL (which represents to me the hope PT did in the past) and Ciro Gomes from PDT (who focus on proposals like PT used to do, not the empty rhetoric and cult of personality they do now).

I feel sad to see PT being destroyed but everytime one of their supporters call people like me “caviar revolutionary left” for voting PSOL or the opposite “not really left wing, you’re center-right” for voting PDT, I get more confident that their self-destruction is necessary for any left-wing have oxygen to be viable (be a communist one or a centrist, I want what is possible to defeat the right).

It’s too early to call PT dead though. They’re still strong in the Northeast (look at Recife numbers!) and their base that evaporated the most is in the center-south, in places where they were originally born. PT will still be very influential in 2022, for better or worse.

From this election it’s also interesting to look at DEM success. I feel like DEM represents the strongest center-right now, something that was the job of PSDB in the past.

DEM is bad but if they represent the right-wing shift from a Bolsonaro scenario to a more moderate one, I’m fine with their success! Could’ve been much worse if we stayed on a Bolsonaro dominated right.

Btw, things are not looking good for Manuela’s prospects on the Porto Alegre runoff with that close margin.

[Red Velvet]

One thing about Rio de Janeiro: Freixo was already getting 2nd place with PSOL in 2012 and 2016, when PSOL had no expression anywhere else.

PSOL was practically born in Rio, which historically has its strongest base. To see it doing that well everywhere but not as much as it could have been in Rio just because Freixo chose not to run makes me mad. Just imagined how Freixo would have done if he didn’t act weak in front of PT and PDT.

All the left in Rio would have united and rallied behind Freixo if he ran, we wouldn’t get this distressing Martha vs Benedita thing and Crivella would have been history at this point already.

I’m really pissed at Rio’s PSOL for the missed opportunity. Look at what the city is with now. Freixo would’ve been doing as good as Boulos, if not more.

Freixo should have run.

[Red Velvet]

Ok, news are saying that apparently they tried to attack the TSE system from places in Brazil, United States and New Zealand.

Some foreign people got really jealous about our system being better than theirs and are trying to demoralize it lmao. Also Bolsominions are probably trying to rob too since they predictably got destroyed in these elections.