Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)

[Mike88]

It was discovered that mayor Marcelo Crivella used his evangelic church for money laundry of corruption. Today, the legislative branch rejected the impeachment, but of course the scandal will hurt him in his seek for reelection.

Well, polls show him at a very distance second against Eduardo Paes. But Paes is also very corrupt, right? Isn't he involved in corrupt deals surrounding the 2016 Rio Olympics?

[Mike88]

This may be one of the worst excuses ever...

[Mike88]

I did mine for Rio and São Paulo:

Rio de Janeiro:

1. PROS
2. REDE
3. DEM
4. PT
5. PSL
6. PSC
7. Republicanos
8. NOVO
9. MDB

São Paulo:

1. PSB
2. REDE
3. PSOL
4. PT
5. PCB
6. PSD
7. PSTU
8. PSDB
9. PSL

[Mike88]

The campaigns from Eduardo Paes, Martha Rocha, Benedita da Silva and Renata Souza considered too early that Crivella was dead. He is not the main focus of negative campaign. There are no scandals related to Crivella in the media anymore. But Crivella is not dead. He has 3 more points than one month ago. If you look at the last Ibope polls by demographics (https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2020/eleicao-em-numeros/noticia/2020/11/10/ibope-de-9-de-novembro-para-prefeito-do-rio-por-sexo-idade-renda-escolaridade-religiao-e-raca.ghtml) the group in which Crivella increased more was the group of the evangelic voters. He had 24% in October 15th, and now he has 31%. In the group of all voters, the mayor had 12% and now he has 15%. The evangelic voters are going back home.
I have a hope that he is already close to his ceiling, since we can perceive he is already overperforming if we look at the approval rate poll.

But in the 2nd round, there will probably be a coalesce of minor parties around Paes to defeat Crivella, right?

[Mike88]

Polls close at 5pm there, right? And unlike the Presidential elections, results will be released as polls close, right?

[Mike88]

Yes. Polls close at 5pm and the results come soon. But I will post here only in the evening. I was drafted to work in the poll (mesário) in the precint I vote. So, it is my task to collect signatures, check voter's ID, type the voter's numbers in the machine so that they can vote, organize the line in order to observe safe distance, take the disk storage of the machine after the closing time. I will need some masks to chance in every 4 hour. When I come home, I post here and comment the results.

Right. I will also follow the results tomorrow. I'm curious to see, as Bolsonaro allies are almost certain to perform very badly, how will the former main parties, PSDB, PT and MDB, perform in the elections.

[Mike88]

Could we a see a surprise win already on the 1st round for Covas and Paes? The trend is favoring that possibility.

[Mike88]

The first polls will close in almost 2 hours.

Results pages:

https://especiaisg1.globo/politica/eleicoes/2020/mapas/apuracao-no-brasil/?_ga=2.141989298.1074373434.1605462563-1420319391.1605462561

https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2020/resultado-das-apuracoes/cidades/

[Mike88]

Poll are starting to close. Waiting for the exit polls.

São Paulo exit poll Ibope

Bruno Covas (PSDB): 33%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 25%
Márcio França (PSB): 13%
Arthur do Val Mamãe Falei (PATRIOTA): 8%
Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 8%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 8%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 2%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 1%
Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
Marina Helou (REDE): 1%

Covas and Boulos will go to 2nd round.

[Mike88]

Rio de Janeiro Ibope exit poll:

Eduardo Paes (DEM): 39%
Crivella (Republicanos): 20%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 14%
Delegada Martha Rocha (PDT): 11%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 6%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 4%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 2%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 2%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%
Fred Luz (Novo): 1%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 0%
Glória Heloiza (PSC): 0%
Henrique Simonard (PCO): 0%
Suêd Haidar (PMB): 0%

Paes and Incumbent mayor Crivella will go to a 2nd round.

Recife Ibope exit poll:

João Campos (PSB): 35%
Marília Arraes (PT): 30%
Mendonça Filho (DEM): 19%
Delegada Patrícia (Podemos): 12%
Carlos (PSL): 1%
Charbel (Novo): 1%
Coronel Feitosa (PSC): 1%
Thiago Santos (UP): 1%
Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU): 0%
Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB): 0%
Victor Assis (PCO): 0%

Second round between Campos and Arraes.

[Mike88]

So far, the big surprise are the results from São Paulo with the very strong showing of the PSOL candidate and the disappointing share for the PSDB. In Rio, incumbent Crivella seems to be a bit ahead of what pre-election polls predicted.

[Mike88]

First returns:

Salvador city (BA)

62.9% DEM
20.1% PT
  5.6% AVANTE
  5.2% PCB
  3.6% PRTB
  1.9% PSOL

Belém city (PA)

34.0% PSOL
23.9% PATRIOTA
16.2% MDB
  8.9% CIDADANIA
  6.9% PSB
  6.4% REPUBLICANOS
  3.0% PSD

[Mike88]

Of the main cities reporting, only in Fortaleza is where a Bolsonaro candidate is ahead but by only a 36% to 33% margin with just 0.11% reporting.

In the rest, very poor performance, as expected, by Bolsonaro supported candidates. PSOL is doing very well in many cities so far.

[Mike88]

First returns from São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro:

São Paulo 0,39% in

32.6% PSDB
20.3% PSOL
14.0% PSB
10.4% REPUBLICANOS
  9.7% PATRIOTA
  8.8% PT
  1.7% PSD
  1.6% PSL

Rio de Janeiro 0,11% in

33.4% DEM
23.0% REPUBLICANOS
13.0% PDT
11.0% PT
  9.0% PSL
  3.6% PSOL
  2.3% MDB
  2.1% NOVO
  1.9% REDE

[Mike88]

Still very early, but trainwreck results for PT and in some extent for PSDB so far.

[Mike88]

Also, based on my precinct demographics, I expected higher numbers for Renata Souza (PSOL) and lower numbers for Benedita (PT), which to me evidences a good number of Psol voters changed in last minute to Benedita.

The NOVO “overperformance” in my sector is totally expected though. Their final numbers will be much closer to ZERO once you count all the city votes and include less elite areas.

Happy for Boulos overperformance in São Paulo! It’s absolutely crazy that São Paulo is now to the left of Rio but they didn’t have an extremely divided left destroying each other and also Evangelical church hasn’t brainwashed people there in the same level they accomplished in some areas of Rio.

Seriously, I can’t believe I want to move to freaking São Paulo now, of all places. That’s the trashy level Rio has gotten.

Yes, very strong numbers in favour of PSOL all across the country. It seems that many leftwing voters are shifting towards PSOL while PT is basically being tossed into the garbabe. Maybe there will an realignment on the left in the 2024 elections similar of what happened in the right in 2018.

Few votes counted yet, however.

[Mike88]

Few votes counted yet, however.

Ah, just saw that the election reporting system is crashing.

[Mike88]

Slow counting. We should not make jokes about US election anymore

The electoral court says they have the results but the issue is putting them in the system and release them.

[Mike88]

In Belém city and Curitiba city, the count is basically finish:

Belém (PA)

34.2% PSOL
23.1% PATRIOTA
17.0% MDB
  8.1% CIDADANIA
  6.9% PSB
  6.8% REPUBLICANOS
  3.2% PSD

Curitiba (PR)

59.8% DEM
13.3% PDT
  6.3% PSL
  4.8% NOVO
  3.9% PL
  2.7% PODE
  2.6% MDB
  2.5% PT
  2.2% AVANTE

[Mike88]

More votes counted in Rio, 30%:

37.4% DEM
21.0% REPUBLICANOS
11.7% PT
11.4% PDT
  6.8% PSL
  3.4% PSOL
  2.8% MDB
  2.5% REDE
  1.8% NOVO

PT surges to 3rd place, so far.

[Mike88]

In the precint I worked, there were 334 voters, 180 voted, 170 casted valid votes: 62 for Eduardo Paes, 29 for Martha Rocha, 28 for Benedita da Silva, 17 for Crivela, 8 for Renata Rouza. This precint is located in Flamengo, a middle-upper-class neighborhood. It is still frightening Crivela had 10% there, considering he used to be almost zero in the southern zone. However, most of the voters of this precint were old voters, so, probably, the vote for Paes and Crivela there was higher than the average of Flamengo

Very low turnout, I thought voting was mandatory.

[Mike88]

Looking at the nationwide results, counted so far, MDB may be the most voted party, but PSDB will lose a lot of votes and fall bellow the 3rd place or more. PSD, DEM and PSOL, and also PSB, could increase a lot compared with their 2016 results. PT is an utter disaster.

[Mike88]

Also, based on my precinct demographics, I expected higher numbers for Renata Souza (PSOL) and lower numbers for Benedita (PT), which to me evidences a good number of Psol voters changed in last minute to Benedita.

The NOVO “overperformance” in my sector is totally expected though. Their final numbers will be much closer to ZERO once you count all the city votes and include less elite areas.

Happy for Boulos overperformance in São Paulo! It’s absolutely crazy that São Paulo is now to the left of Rio but they didn’t have an extremely divided left destroying each other and also Evangelical church hasn’t brainwashed people there in the same level they accomplished in some areas of Rio.

Seriously, I can’t believe I want to move to freaking São Paulo now, of all places. That’s the trashy level Rio has gotten.

Yes, very strong numbers in favour of PSOL all across the country. It seems that many leftwing voters are shifting towards PSOL while PT is basically being tossed into the garbabe. Maybe there will an realignment on the left in the 2024 elections similar of what happened in the right in 2018.

Few votes counted yet, however.

That’s basically it lol.

Yet PT people and their staunch supporters will still swear they can win now all by themselves, they’re in complete delusion and refuse to acknowledge that they lost space within the population (not just the neoliberal elites lmao) and it’s not only because of the dirty schemes against them in the last years. Even if the party was targeted by the elites, they failed people as well.

PT used to be my favorite party during Lula and Dilma years and nowadays I find myself much more represented by PSOL (which represents to me the hope PT did in the past) and Ciro Gomes from PDT (who focus on proposals like PT used to do, not the empty rhetoric and cult of personality they do now).

I feel sad to see PT being destroyed but everytime one of their supporters call people like me “caviar revolutionary left” for voting PSOL or the opposite “not really left wing, you’re center-right” for voting PDT, I get more confident that their self-destruction is necessary for any left-wing have oxygen to be viable (be a communist one or a centrist, I want what is possible to defeat the right).

It’s too early to call PT dead though. They’re still strong in the Northeast (look at Recife numbers!) and their base that evaporated the most is in the center-south, in places where they were originally born. PT will still be very influential in 2022, for better or worse.

From this election it’s also interesting to look at DEM success. I feel like DEM represents the strongest center-right now, something that was the job of PSDB in the past.

DEM is bad but if they represent the right-wing shift from a Bolsonaro scenario to a more moderate one, I’m fine with their success! Could’ve been much worse if we stayed on a Bolsonaro dominated right.

Btw, things are not looking good for Manuela’s prospects on the Porto Alegre runoff with that close margin.

It's interesting that the two former main parties of the "centrão" are becoming more and more irrelevant. PSD is also a center-right party, right? They seem, like DEM, to be doing very well.

Voting is mandatory. But it is very easy for people who didn't vote to "justificar" in the Internet. The share of blank and nullified votes was very low. So, I think that voters who were planning to nulify their votes decided to stay at home because of the pandemic.

Interesting. Do you think turnout will be low, maybe below 70%?

[Mike88]

PSDB still dominates in Mato Grosso do Sul.

REPUBLICANOS aren't leading in any city, so far.

[Mike88]

Btw, things are not looking good for Manuela’s prospects on the Porto Alegre runoff with that close margin.

Yes. She's currently just at 30%, but the right combined has more than 50%. She may not be reelected in the 2nd round. (I'm assuming the MDB will congregate the rightwing vote, of course)